2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose

[wbrocks67]

You just hate to see it...

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1250092056946581504

[Pollster]

Since the OHPI monthly poll dropped its Presidential numbers today, we are likely to see the Senate numbers in the coming days. Given Biden's likely exaggerated 9-point lead, the topline number is sure to look disastrous for McSally.

Republicans probably need a game-changer to salvage this race, especially with Dems on offense in AZ-06.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Looks like Dems are leaving Bollier and Cunningham out and targeting AZ, CO, ME and MT. Cunningham has not been seen during this coronavirus and there is no internal polls done on KS. Regardless, that gives Dems the majority after losing AL as excepted

[wbrocks67]

Looks like Dems are leaving Bollier and Cunningham out and targeting AZ, CO, ME and MT. Cunningham has not been seen during this coronavirus and there is no internal polls done on KS. Regardless, that gives Dems the majority after losing AL as excepted

Cunningham just announced today he raised $4.4 million. He's clearly still in this

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Looks like Dems are leaving Bollier and Cunningham out and targeting AZ, CO, ME and MT. Cunningham has not been seen during this coronavirus and there is no internal polls done on KS. Regardless, that gives Dems the majority after losing AL as excepted

Cunningham just announced today he raised $4.4 million. He's clearly still in this

If anything, Cunningham is at least slightly favored although I still have it at tilt D pending more polling.  The pre-coronavirus polling was already consistently terrible for Tillis IIRC.  This reminds me a bit of the 2008 NC Senate race tbh.  A relatively unknown Democrat running against a weak Republican after bigger-name contenders passed in a race most believe to be Lean R despite the evidence suggesting that the Democrat is favored.  Tbh, I could see Cunningham winning by a larger than expected margin (albeit obviously not as much as Hagan did).  

Side note: The Dems should really make some attack ads using the clip of Tillis saying restaurant workers shouldn't be required to wash their hands.

[wbrocks67]

It's also stunning that this was during the McSally "liberal hack!" fiasco, which clearly backfired on her and revved up Kelly's base even more

[wbrocks67]

Ouch @ MAGA Martha

Mark Kelly (D) 51%
Martha McSally (R-inc) 42%

https://ohpredictive.com/press-releases/markkelly_marthamcsally_senate2020/

[Lognog]

Ouch @ MAGA Martha

Mark Kelly (D) 51%
Martha McSally (R-inc) 42%

https://ohpredictive.com/press-releases/markkelly_marthamcsally_senate2020/

If this poll is accurate, at what point is Biden riding on Kelly's coattails

[Calthrina950]

Ouch @ MAGA Martha

Mark Kelly (D) 51%
Martha McSally (R-inc) 42%

https://ohpredictive.com/press-releases/markkelly_marthamcsally_senate2020/

Wasn't this the poll that was the most favorable to McSally in 2018? If she's trailing this badly, then what does that tell us about her prospects? At this point, Arizona seems like it's almost a guaranteed flip for Democrats, like Colorado is. It is still early, and McSally could turn her fortunes around, but she has much work ahead of her.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Ouch @ MAGA Martha

Mark Kelly (D) 51%
Martha McSally (R-inc) 42%

https://ohpredictive.com/press-releases/markkelly_marthamcsally_senate2020/

Wasn't this the poll that was the most favorable to McSally in 2018? If she's trailing this badly, then what does that tell us about her prospects? At this point, Arizona seems like it's almost a guaranteed flip for Democrats, like Colorado is. It is still early, and McSally could turn her fortunes around, but she has much work ahead of her.

OHPI had McSally leading Sinema a few days prior to the election.

[wbrocks67]

Yep, a OHPI poll on Nov 1, 2018, had McSally winning by 7

https://sonoranalliance.com/poll-mcsally-maintains-lead-over-sinema/

[Blair]

I was baffled they appointed her & surely there must be someone better in Arizona considering it's such a heavily republican state

[Oryxslayer]

I was baffled they appointed her & surely there must be someone better in Arizona considering it's such a heavily republican state

The theory is that she got appointed specifically to lose, which would allow Ducey to run in 2022 without handing power immediately over to the democratic SoS.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McSally was ahead in the polls and was within the margin of error before the Pandemic,  but once the Pandemic began, Latinos

heavily went towards Mark Kelly, went from 3 to 10 points. The Rs had intentions on winning this race since no R has been elected Prez without carrying AZ

[Blair]

I was baffled they appointed her & surely there must be someone better in Arizona considering it's such a heavily republican state

The theory is that she got appointed specifically to lose, which would allow Ducey to run in 2022 without handing power immediately over to the democratic SoS.

The hilarous outcome of course is either her winning or Kelly winning and then beating Ducey.

[Brittain33]

I was baffled they appointed her & surely there must be someone better in Arizona considering it's such a heavily republican state

The theory is that she got appointed specifically to lose, which would allow Ducey to run in 2022 without handing power immediately over to the democratic SoS.

The hilarous outcome of course is either her winning or Kelly winning and then beating Ducey.

Kelly is in trouble in 2022 if Biden wins.

[tagimaucia]

McSally was ahead in the polls and was within the margin of error before the Pandemic,  but once the Pandemic began, Latinos

heavily went towards Mark Kelly, went from 3 to 10 points. The Rs had intentions on winning this race since no R has been elected Prez without carrying AZ

Huh? Within the margin of error maybe, but as far as I can tell, McSally hasn’t lead a poll since... last May.

[Frenchrepublican]

I was baffled they appointed her & surely there must be someone better in Arizona considering it's such a heavily republican state

The theory is that she got appointed specifically to lose, which would allow Ducey to run in 2022 without handing power immediately over to the democratic SoS.

The hilarous outcome of course is either her winning or Kelly winning and then beating Ducey.

Kelly is in trouble in 2022 if Biden wins.

Yeah, especially, and here lies the irony, if democrats take back the Senate as that would probably assure that a lot of progressive legislations would be enacted into laws, which in turn could result in a backlash in Arizona

[wbrocks67]

Even worse for MAGA Martha, Sinema's approval is sky-high. She has a 64/27 favorable right now.

https://twitter.com/OHPredictive/status/1252688672195072003

[Calthrina950]

Even worse for MAGA Martha, Sinema's approval is sky-high. She has a 64/27 favorable right now.

https://twitter.com/OHPredictive/status/1252688672195072003

If Sinema maintains this, she will have no problems winning reelection next time, especially as Arizona will be more Democratic by then.

[here2view]

I imagine Sinema will win reelection pretty handily, especially if the number of ticket splitters decrease. She's up in a presidential year (2024) and Arizona will vote Democrat at the presidential level then (if not 2020, which I expect to happen anyways.)

[Pollster]

I imagine Sinema will win reelection pretty handily, especially if the number of ticket splitters decrease. She's up in a presidential year (2024) and Arizona will vote Democrat at the presidential level then (if not 2020, which I expect to happen anyways.)

If AZ continues going the way its going, she'd probably be more vulnerable in a primary than a general (and even that is unlikely).

[Upstater]

I imagine Sinema will win reelection pretty handily, especially if the number of ticket splitters decrease. She's up in a presidential year (2024) and Arizona will vote Democrat at the presidential level then (if not 2020, which I expect to happen anyways.)

If AZ continues going the way its going, she'd probably be more vulnerable in a primary than a general (and even that is unlikely).

What are the chances that Gallego tries to primary Sinema in 2024?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I imagine Sinema will win reelection pretty handily, especially if the number of ticket splitters decrease. She's up in a presidential year (2024) and Arizona will vote Democrat at the presidential level then (if not 2020, which I expect to happen anyways.)

If AZ continues going the way its going, she'd probably be more vulnerable in a primary than a general (and even that is unlikely).

I kinda feel like Sinema will slowly become more progressive as her state becomes more progressive. She used to be more leftie but as a senator, she had to be moderate to win, and she wants to stick to her word, at least for a while. I think she'll become more like Micheal Bennet by 2024 and less like a Manchin

[Frenchrepublican]

I imagine Sinema will win reelection pretty handily, especially if the number of ticket splitters decrease. She's up in a presidential year (2024) and Arizona will vote Democrat at the presidential level then (if not 2020, which I expect to happen anyways.)

If AZ continues going the way its going, she'd probably be more vulnerable in a primary than a general (and even that is unlikely).

I kinda feel like Sinema will slowly become more progressive as her state becomes more progressive. She used to be more leftie but as a senator, she had to be moderate to win, and she wants to stick to her word, at least for a while. I think she'll become more like Micheal Bennet by 2024 and less like a Manchin

That's called the Gillibrand Plyabook.