Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/19/russia-weapons-production-ukraine-war/

"Russia ramps up weapons production, using mass quantity to outgun Ukraine"

Russia has ramped up weapons production and will be able to maintain an offensive against Ukraine for at least another two years

[Open Source Intelligence]

A lot of people use the word "objectively" and like "literally" that is causing it to lose its real meaning.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ukraine is finally getting aid, shot down a Tu-22M and did this in Novomykhailivka. Nice 😎
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1781223014278877458?s=12
https://twitter.com/andrewperpetua/status/1781332809061142915?s=12

[jaichind]

House procedural vote passed.  The aid package as good as passed

[Logical]

Reminder that no matter how hard you fight or shill for Russia, they will still dump you like a used sock once you've outlived your usefulness.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1781376341750804484

[Antonio the Sixth]

Horrifying. The guy seemed like a piece of work but I wouldn't wish that on anyone.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/jakesherman/status/1781742727492727158?s=12
The House passed aid, coup and seethe Putin

[jaichind]

Pro-Russian sources claim the capture of  Novomikhailovka

[jaichind]

Depends. Cold War generation is dying so it’s natural that the neoliberal Anti-Russia sentiment that drove past generations will decay a lot even if won’t immediately disappear.

Populism and Nationalist sentiment being high these days in US favors Russia because both the Populist Right and Left have no reasons to see Russia as an adversary. And that’s what’s happening with the Neocons being replaced by Trump conservatives.

I buy the idea that 18-49 year olds are less hostile to Russia than their elders.  I do not for a second buy that 36% of them think Russia is friendly or an ally when this is objectively untrue and Russia itself declares so in no uncertain terms, both in word and deed.

I think they do not think Russia is friendly or an ally but most likely they hate the people they view as being hostile to Russia  (the enemy of my enemy .... )

[Hollywood]

Latest CBS poll

Wow, 36% of 18-49 year olds think Russia is an ally/friendly.  That is amazing and objectionably not true of course.

I can't believe they released this poll.  If this is the push poll coming right after passage of the bill, I imagine the numbers are much worse on the question about whether the US should send weapons/Military Aid to Ukraine.  These figures aren't a surprise to me.  I am completely unable to find a group of people that support Ukraine other than members of local Democrat and Republican groups.  Supporters don't even bring it up unless I prompt them, and the vast majority of people consider Ukraine as a low priority.  I randomly see Ukraine blue and yellow flags, but these are usually located in upper middle-class areas. 

[Storr]

She wants to win her competitive Republican primary which she entered months after claiming she would retire. Politically her decision makes sense, as Republican primary voters in Indiana aren't exactly in favor of supporting Ukraine. Morally? Abandoning her native country in its greatest time of need is for her to live with.

"Indeed, the only Ukrainian-born member of the U.S. House voted against the bill and helping her home country — and three days after a Russian missile attack killed 18 people near where she was raised in Chernihiv region."

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1781772166846927201

[Hollywood]

Pro-Russian sources claim the capture of  Novomikhailovka

Ukraine posted the below cited video in response.  Novomikhailovka is definitely captured at this point.  Russians had surrounded the Western part of the city from the north and south on April 14-16th.  Russians have already started bombing campaign on Kostyantynivka and Vuhledar.  Russia looking to push over the next 72 hours.  Ukraine confirmed Russian aircrafts, missiles and anti-aircraft moving towards the frontline and Russian airbases.  

https://twitter.com/RajBhads90/status/1781757049593856171

[lfromnj]

She wants to win her competitive Republican primary which she entered months after claiming she would retire. Politically her decision makes sense, as Republican primary voters in Indiana aren't exactly in favor of supporting Ukraine. Morally? Abandoning her native country in its greatest time of need is for her to live with.

"Indeed, the only Ukrainian-born member of the U.S. House voted against the bill and helping her home country — and three days after a Russian missile attack killed 18 people near where she was raised in Chernihiv region."

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1781772166846927201

Morally speaking American citizens should have no dual loyalty towards their native countries. I myself have specifically argued against increasing trade with India because of the weight it has. It makes far more sense to invest into SEA where we can divide and conquer.

[Hollywood]

She wants to win her competitive Republican primary which she entered months after claiming she would retire. Politically her decision makes sense, as Republican primary voters in Indiana aren't exactly in favor of supporting Ukraine. Morally? Abandoning her native country in its greatest time of need is for her to live with.

"Indeed, the only Ukrainian-born member of the U.S. House voted against the bill and helping her home country — and three days after a Russian missile attack killed 18 people near where she was raised in Chernihiv region."

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1781772166846927201

Morally speaking American citizens should have no dual loyalty towards their native countries. I myself have specifically argued against increasing trade with India because of the weight it has. It makes far more sense to invest into SEA where we can divide and conquer.

We were never going to beat China in SEA countries.  Definitely can't do it without India. The whole reason China stepped up its militarization in the South China Sea was to increase its influence on these countries by taking control of regional waters.  SEA countries can't afford to choose sides when they receive enormous economic benefits from China, and the US will only weaken its position in the region if India isn't part of the deal.  China will essentially conquer Southeast Asia by dividing the US and India, and Russia will only increase its influence within India. 

The problem isn't India.  It's the divisiveness within NATO countries, and the polarization of political groups into extremists.  Israel and India can't afford to piss-off Russia by providing the same kind of support to Ukraine as Europe and the US so F them.  Some Rs and Is don't support funding Ukraine cause everyone in their party is an Evil Right-Wing Extremists like Putin, so F them.  Everything comes at a cost during war, especially values, ethics, and principles.  If WW2 taught us anything, it's that you do business with anyone that can help you win. 

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/47ab8286-248d-4fec-80ce-b08ed1409243

"Foreign investor in Ukraine accuses officials of corruption"

Western governments have become increasingly concerned over government corruption in Ukraine but have largely held back from making their criticism public as they rally support for Kyiv to shore up its faltering defence against Russian aggression. The war has given space for many of the corrupt networks linked to former president Viktor Yanukovych to reassemble, European security officials say.

Clearly, many other countries are no better so I am not trying to single out Ukraine.  The point is the political system reflects the culture and not the other way around it does not matter if it is Yanukovych, Poroshenko, or Zelensky. 

This is not to say that culture cannot be changed over time but usually, that is from within.  The underlying culture is not going to change by joining the EU or NATO.  The Ukraine population is making a mistake if they are equating joining X to a culture change which can only come from within.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Reminder that no matter how hard you fight or shill for Russia, they will still dump you like a used sock once you've outlived your usefulness.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1781376341750804484

Hey! Sounds, metaphorically, just like being loyal to Trump!

That's autocracy for you.

[Hollywood]

Reminder that no matter how hard you fight or shill for Russia, they will still dump you like a used sock once you've outlived your usefulness.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1781376341750804484

Hey! Sounds, metaphorically, just like being loyal to Trump!

That's autocracy for you.

That story is complete BS.  I know you don't believe that story.  No one can possibly be stupid enough to believe that story.  Why does everyone get raped in pro-Ukrainian propaganda stories about a prisoner?  LOL. 

He was killed by artillery after years of military service that began in 2014.  He was married to a Russian and became a citizen in 2021.  He joined to help stop the UAF from killing Russians in Donetsk.  He was loyal to his fellow Russians.   
https://twitter.com/yes_true8/status/1781381388765188438/photo/1

[Storr]

"Military equipment, including longer-range ATACMS, is expected to be sent to Ukraine by the end of the week, Senate Intelligence Committee's @MarkWarner told @margbrennan on CBS Face the Nation."

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1782057943036289051
 

[Antonio the Sixth]

"Military equipment, including longer-range ATACMS, is expected to be sent to Ukraine by the end of the week, Senate Intelligence Committee's @MarkWarner told @margbrennan on CBS Face the Nation."

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1782057943036289051
 

Thank God. No more playing with kid gloves.

[Frodo]

Reminder that no matter how hard you fight or shill for Russia, they will still dump you like a used sock once you've outlived your usefulness.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1781376341750804484

I see why Woody and other Vatniks only want to support the Russian war effort from the safety and comfort of their homes (and keyboards).  Well then, they might want to reconsider their allegiance and actually back the underdogs here who are fighting for their existence as a people. 

[OSR stands with Israel]

She wants to win her competitive Republican primary which she entered months after claiming she would retire. Politically her decision makes sense, as Republican primary voters in Indiana aren't exactly in favor of supporting Ukraine. Morally? Abandoning her native country in its greatest time of need is for her to live with.

"Indeed, the only Ukrainian-born member of the U.S. House voted against the bill and helping her home country — and three days after a Russian missile attack killed 18 people near where she was raised in Chernihiv region."

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1781772166846927201

Morally speaking American citizens should have no dual loyalty towards their native countries. I myself have specifically argued against increasing trade with India because of the weight it has. It makes far more sense to invest into SEA where we can divide and conquer.

I mean there is a difference between opposing a trade deal with a major nation and opposing arming a nation that is currently being invaded.

[Hindsight was 2020]

"Military equipment, including longer-range ATACMS, is expected to be sent to Ukraine by the end of the week, Senate Intelligence Committee's @MarkWarner told @margbrennan on CBS Face the Nation."

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1782057943036289051
 

[Woody]

Russian telegram:

Enemy resources report that our sappers have begun to clear mines and remove mines on the border of Sumy and Kharkov regions.

Soon the month of May

Summer offensive in Kharkiv/Kharkov?

[Hollywood]

All sources have confirmed the disastrous situation around Ochertyne and Krasnohorivka, which is supported by an hour of Russian drone footage documenting the UAF's inability to resist Russian advances.  Ukrainian defensive fortifications have been steadily destroyed by Russian Aviation.  All brigades in the area are severely depleted, and some are combining their forces. 

Ukrainians have also been claiming that brigades are in disarray due to heavy Russian bombardment.  Soldiers are refusing to follow orders, and the major advance into Ochertyne is a direct result of soldiers abandoning positions.  Ukrainians claim that the 'enemy' controls 30% of the town, while Russia says they occupy 50%.  Video would suggest that RAF has a presence on the northern edge of the city center given their shell tanks are rolling around without much difficulty. The UAF simply doesn't have any more artillery shells to conduct a barrage on these Mechanized groups.  They might be preserving an emergency stockpile. 

In sum, it's a crisis situation.  Russia is on the verge of a major breakthrough. A major attack could be launched towards multiple directions once they capture the high ground in-and-around Ocheretyne.  Russia has its first opportunity to collapse the Defensive Lines along the Eastern Front. 

https://twitter.com/FistedFoucault/status/1782372213221363783

https://twitter.com/baronitaigas/status/1782369317562032162/photo/1

[jaichind]

By pushing into Ocheretyne it seems the Russians are making the current Ukraine line of defense West of Avdivka vulnerable and most likely will have to fall back to the next line of defense.