2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Badger]

Can we talk about New Jersey for a second? A nearly *10%* shift since 2016. Biden +23 right now. Wow.

The whole Revolt of the suburbs thing may not have been false, at least in the Northeast

Seems to have been pretty real pretty much everywhere. That’s why Biden can win Georgia.

And yet he’s struggling to win states that Trump barely won last time?

Suburban shifts are there too, it’s just that Trump also got a slight rural shift in some places plus some gains with minorities (especially Latinos). Suburban shifts seem to be outweighing that though.

Really? Ohio and Iowa barely budged.

In terms of age and education, there are Mega differences between suburbs from Rust Belt states like Ohio and Iowa, versus those in places like Colorado and Arizona. We're seeing that in the vote results

[Battista Minola 1616]

Good morning again.

I didn't sleep so bad. I see that the mess is still a mess.

Also I notice we have gone over page 200... keep it going, guys.

[Blair]

The Wisconsin Democrat party deserves a lot of credit.

They've worked their asses off since 2016, won important state wide races & hopefully have done just enough to save this.

I am however looking forward to the bi-annual sh**tting on the Florida Democratic Party; although they at least to their credit did warn about this happening (while clearly doing nothing since 2018)

[Dr. Frankenstein]

I dumped 50€ on Trump ending up with between 240-269 EV on a betting site.

For a reward of 450€.

Hopefully Biden does NOT win GA !

Biden winning back the Blue Wall is just fine.

It could work if Biden wins GA, but Trump somehow holds onto PA.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1323813979203010562?s=19

Those are old. They have Biden ever so slightly favoured in GA now.

Deleted, sorry.

You're good.  We're all on pins and needles right now and it's easy to post something knee-jerk

[Alben Barkley]

Roy Cooper has now won North Carolina twice as Trump (likely) wins it, this time while we lose a Senate race too.

I think he’s a good option for 2024. Southerner with purple state appeal and strong executive experience.

[MasterJedi]

So how does MI look now?

[BlueSwan]

Michael Bloomberg sure as hell wasted a lot of money this election cycle. First on his own failed bid, then on Biden in Florida and didn't he spend a bunch in Ohio at the end as well??

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So how does MI look now?

Trump up by 0.5% (NYT), but still a HUGE chunk of votes to come from Wayne County (Detroit).  

[philly09]

So how does MI look now?

Trump still up by 26,000.

[Silent Hunter]

Roy Cooper has now won North Carolina twice as Trump (likely) wins it, this time while we lose a Senate race too.

I think he’s a good option for 2024. Southerner with purple state appeal and strong executive experience.

2024 will be Kamala Harris having first refusal.

[BlueSwan]

So how does MI look now?

Tied. We are one nice city dump away from a Biden lead I would think.

[Tender Branson]

I dumped 50€ on Trump ending up with between 240-269 EV on a betting site.

For a reward of 450€.

Hopefully Biden does NOT win GA !

Biden winning back the Blue Wall is just fine.

It could work if Biden wins GA, but Trump somehow holds onto PA.

I would also cash in if Trump somehow wins AZ+NV, but Biden GA.

[xavier110]

Regardless of what happens with Biden, Pelosi and Schumer have got to go

[GeorgiaModerate]

I dumped 50€ on Trump ending up with between 240-269 EV on a betting site.

For a reward of 450€.

Hopefully Biden does NOT win GA !

Biden winning back the Blue Wall is just fine.

It could work if Biden wins GA, but Trump somehow holds onto PA.

I would also cash in if Trump somehow wins AZ+NV, but Biden GA.

You can rule the last one out.

[Silent Hunter]

So how does MI look now?

Trump still up by 26,000.

With 670,000 votes out, 500,000 of them in Clinton 2016 counties.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Regardless of what happens with Biden, Pelosi and Schumer have got to go

From a moderate across the aisle:  agreed.  For as much as I'd love for my own party to take a good hard look at itself, the Democratic Party definitely has some retooling to do.  

[rosin]

I went to bed at 9 pm eastern feeling pretty pessimistic. I woke up at about midnight eastern, checked the map, and felt a lot better. Checked again at 3 am eastern, and continued to feel better.

Now I'm just thoroughly confused. I'm liking everything I'm hearing and yet it makes no sense to me in the context of where things were when I went to bed. You guys aren't just optimistically speculating "here's how Biden can still win"-style are you?

We are not, but bear in mind that absolutely nothing is certain at this point!

Of course it is not. But when you think about it, it is not THAT odd that the Democrats urging their voters to vote early or by mail (and the Republicans' dismissal of said voting measures as cheating) creates a HUGE discrepancy between the election day vote and the early/mail vote

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I dumped 50€ on Trump ending up with between 240-269 EV on a betting site.

For a reward of 450€.

Hopefully Biden does NOT win GA !

Biden winning back the Blue Wall is just fine.

It could work if Biden wins GA, but Trump somehow holds onto PA.

I would also cash in if Trump somehow wins AZ+NV, but Biden GA.

You can rule the last one out.

How is Georgia looking to you, GM?

[BlueSwan]

Regardless of what happens with Biden, Pelosi and Schumer have got to go

As much as I actually like Pelosi and Schumer myself, I wholeheartedly agree. We need a new generation of leaders now. It's high time.

[forsythvoter]

Morning everyone! Bumping up this post since it looks like no new updates from GA since then. I am open btw to debating the methodology - just the facts and data please.

Update: It looks like a few more votes have come in and I've rerun the analysis for ALL GA counties with 3% or more of the vote outstanding.

Trump's lead: 102K
Vote count in counties with more than 3% of vote outstanding: Biden 1,494K-854K (640K lead)
Vote count in these counties if remaining votes vote the same way as existing ballots: Biden by 1,766K-988K (778K lead)

Estimated outcome: Biden + 36K once all votes are in (in line with the NYT needle).

So Biden's would net 138K from the remaining outstanding ballots if they vote the same way as existing ballots. We know that about 100K Fulton mail-ins are part of this group, but not sure about the other counties.

I extrapolated the numbers out of metro ATL based on existing vote patterns. If Biden replicates the existing vote totals in the remaining estimated ballots, he'll net about 150K more votes out of metro ATL. Trump currently leads by 118K votes in GA.

There are a few more votes out in Chatham (Biden 56%), Muscogee (Biden 59%), and some black belt counties that could add a few thousand more votes to Biden.

No idea if the remaining votes will follow the existing votes but we do know Fulton mail-ins are still out. I would expect that vote to go even more D than the non-mail in votes. Not sure about the other counties.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Regardless of what happens with Biden, Pelosi and Schumer have got to go

So does the electoral college.

[BlueSwan]

OK, nothing seems to be happening right now. Gonna take a 30 minute "break" to do some actual work.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Can we please get another vote dump in Michigan so that Biden can take the lead there sometime.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Roy Cooper has now won North Carolina twice as Trump (likely) wins it, this time while we lose a Senate race too.

I think he’s a good option for 2024. Southerner with purple state appeal and strong executive experience.

Cooper would be a better candidate for 2022 when Burr retires.

Jeff Jackson would also be a good candidate for either Senate or governor. He should've ran this year, in all honesty.