2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[xavier110]

I hope he isn't alone:

https://twitter.com/MoniqueOMadan/status/1323622245437243393

And she found a Trumper who wasn't registered to vote. May the Lord bless the state of Florida today

[xavier110]

City of Madison has counted 12.85% of all absentees in the first 2 hours.  On this pace all absentees will be counted by a little after 10 pm

That is interesting! but they'll have actual ED vote too

[xavier110]

How do Arizona numbers look?

Fewer election day votes in Maricopa vs. this same time in 2018. Not sure what that means in practice, but if Trump's banking on ED vote, that doesn't sound great to me.

https://twitter.com/A_R_Stumpf/status/1323690489380446208

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/alextdaugherty/status/1323743075320156161

"Go live"?

Results will be reported, I am assuming lol

[xavier110]

Biden's already at 2.3k votes in Greene County, IN. Hillary got 2,929 total there. LoL

[xavier110]

Biden is getting more raw votes than Clinton did in some counties, indicating it isn’t just a Dem counting bias in these counties.

Yep. He looks on pace to eclipse her (or already has, lol) in almost every county I see

And this is largely rural America...

[xavier110]

Biden at 127,112 in Volusia right now, already ahead of Hillary's total of 109,091

Same with Lee

[xavier110]

Pinellas, Biden up with 243k-205k. Hillary got 233k total.

[xavier110]

Trump up 150K votes in Miami-Dade with 84% in...

That has to be wrong.

Dems have had a lead in Miami Dade the entire time, how is that possible

NYT has Biden up by 10 percent in Miami

[xavier110]

Biden+10 in Maricopa

Jesus take the wheel. Kelly+11. Good luck folks

We shall see.

[xavier110]

Biden+10 in Maricopa

Jesus take the wheel. Kelly+11. Good luck folks

We shall see.

Isnt that great for Biden and Kelly?

Yes, Biden is in it. I am afraid of the rurals. But so far, we are OK.

[xavier110]

Lol if this is a 270-268 race I will scream

[xavier110]

Why is Rhode Island still so close?

It’s only Election Day vote. No mail ballots

[xavier110]

The shenanigans in PA are going to make this election drag out forever, aren't they?

The shenanigans? The GOP didn’t let them open mail ballots until today!!

[xavier110]

Regardless of what happens with Biden, Pelosi and Schumer have got to go

[xavier110]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288

These numbers seem impossible

[xavier110]

Yeah, NYT just snapped AZ back from >98% of the vote in to 86%.  Biden still leads by six in Maricopa, though.  

Are mail-in or in-person votes left?

In Maricopa, it's late mail ballots & provisionals. They reported all the ED vote last night, so the most favorable Trump votes in Maricopa County are in. Don't know about rest of state though. We should hit closer to 3 million votes so we have a few hundred thousand ballots outstanding

[xavier110]

Young affluent liberals from swing states need to stop moving in droves to liberal strongholds like NY and CA.

Keep moving to Phoenix, Atlanta and Austin!!

[xavier110]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288

These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609

People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

[xavier110]

Why is nobody talking about Arizona?

I am starting to get nervous. There's another 400-500k votes out there, 350k of which is in Pima and Maricopa. They're largely late mail ballots and mail ballots dropped off on Election Day (all other ED vote is counted).

The mystery is do they break like ED vote (which was 2-1 Trump) or a little closer to the early vote (where Biden had a high single/low double digit lead in the initial EV dump). If it's ED vote, it will be NERVE-WRACKING, and Trump could do it. If it's somewhere in the middle, it's better for Biden.

[xavier110]

Why is nobody talking about Arizona?

I am starting to get nervous. There's another 400-500k votes out there, 350k of which is in Pima and Maricopa. They're largely late mail ballots and mail ballots dropped off on Election Day (all other ED vote is counted).

The mystery is do they break like ED vote (which was 2-1 Trump) or a little closer to the early vote (where Biden had a high single/low double digit lead in the initial EV dump). If it's ED vote, it will be NERVE-WRACKING, and Trump could do it. If it's somewhere in the middle, it's better for Biden.

Why would these mail in ballots become magically better for Trump when that hasn’t been true for anywhere so far

Because almost everyone in AZ is on the Permanent Early Vote List, so if you're a Trump voter, you might have just gotten your ballot, filled it out and dropped it off on Election Day -- the ED vote was huge for him here and doesn't include these ballot drop offs. In which case these ballots may be scary for us. It's an if, but don't expect this to be like Sinema gaining votes in 2018. It's basically the reverse situation.

[xavier110]

Why is nobody talking about Arizona?

I am starting to get nervous. There's another 400-500k votes out there, 350k of which is in Pima and Maricopa. They're largely late mail ballots and mail ballots dropped off on Election Day (all other ED vote is counted).

The mystery is do they break like ED vote (which was 2-1 Trump) or a little closer to the early vote (where Biden had a high single/low double digit lead in the initial EV dump). If it's ED vote, it will be NERVE-WRACKING, and Trump could do it. If it's somewhere in the middle, it's better for Biden.

Why would these mail in ballots become magically better for Trump when that hasn’t been true for anywhere so far

Because almost everyone in AZ is on the Permanent Early Vote List, so if you're a Trump voter, you might have just gotten your ballot, filled it out and dropped it off on Election Day -- the ED vote was huge for him here and doesn't include these ballot drop offs. In which case these ballots may be scary for us. It's an if, but don't expect this to be like Sinema gaining votes in 2018. It's basically the reverse situation.

But that seems to be an more of a hypothetical of how possible voters might of acted then anything really data based

It is data based.

We know the following:

1) The EV returns got more Republican in Party Reg the closer we got to Election Day
2) The Election Day vote in AZ was 2-1 for Trump

So, it's safe to assume this vote will be more favorable to Trump than the earlier mail ballots. Just comes down to margins.

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324065378658639877?s=19

If Nate's napkin math is correct, then Biden barely wins, probably. Doesn't make me comfortable, though

[xavier110]

A full 450,000 of those ballots are in Maricopa County (Phoenix) and break down as follows: 248,000 early ballots (which in Arizona includes both mail-in and in-person votes) that arrived on Monday or Tuesday, 160,000-180,000 mail-in ballots dropped off on Election Day and 29,000 provisional ballots. Maricopa expects to release two batches of results tonight: one at 9 p.m. Eastern and one sometime after 12:30 a.m. Eastern.

Take a deep breath everyone, we'll know Maricopa tonight. If these dumps are close and not a Trump runaway, we're ok. If he's clearing 60%+ though....

[xavier110]

Should we be worried about NV? What’s going on there?

AZ seems more concerning than NV at this point, the remaining vote sounds very Trump favorable.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1324070507168358402

I mean how would he know that and when do we get a Az update?

 Maricopa will release two tranches tonight: one at 9 p.m. Eastern and one sometime after 12:30 a.m. Eastern.

It would have to be overwhelmingly R though to turn Biden's 100K lead though

The election day was overwhelmingly Trump though. That's my only concern