2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Alben Barkley]

Random thought: with Ohio, Florida, and probably North Carolina going for Trump, there will be hardly any active win streaks left, even if you allow for one miss. MI, WI, and PA will have win streaks going back to 2008. That's it.

Nevada?

I guess if you grant Nevada its one miss in 2016, it has a streak going back to 2004. If you switch to "always votes with the popular vote winner," though, there are a lot more options.

If it's "always goes with the popular vote winner," then Colorado and Virginia each have a streak since 2004, New Mexico since 1980. That may be the longest.

[Alben Barkley]

Random thought: with Ohio, Florida, and probably North Carolina going for Trump, there will be hardly any active win streaks left, even if you allow for one miss. MI, WI, and PA will have win streaks going back to 2008. That's it.

Nevada?

I guess if you grant Nevada its one miss in 2016, it has a streak going back to 2004. If you switch to "always votes with the popular vote winner," though, there are a lot more options.

Nope, it goes all the way back to…1980.

In 2000, it voted for W who did not win the popular vote. New Mexico does have a streak going back to 1980 though.

[Alben Barkley]

Is anyone watching the House?  It's been called for the Dems by every news org, but it seems a bit premature to me.  Dems only have 208/218 seats called, and most of the remaining ones are R leads.

If EVERY news org called it, I find it hard to believe we could possibly lose it. Aren't we still waiting on a lot of votes in like California seats and such?

[Alben Barkley]

The PA numbers are getting worse for Trump.

Scranton Joe gonna pull through.

[Alben Barkley]

Why hasn't NC been called if it's 100% reporting?

Late arriving ballots can be counted until the 12th.

[Alben Barkley]

Is it a pretty safe bet to say Peters will cling on in MI? He's currently leading, but not by much.

I THINK so, but it's looking razor thin. James might try for a recount, but doubt it makes up that many votes.

[Alben Barkley]

Fox Decision Desk has once again re-affirmed their AZ call. They still seem extremely confident.

[Alben Barkley]

Trump's going to try and run again in 4 years, isn't he? Ugh

Let him, but I think the GOP could run a couple different people that could do quite well like Doug Ducey & Brian Sandoval.

Hopefully Donald Trump runs a third-party bid. Then the vote would be split and Joe Biden or Kamala Harris could win the fabled 413 Authoritarian NUT map due to vote splitting.

It would not shock me if Donald Trump ran 3rd Party, I could see the Libertarian Party or Constitution Party supporting his bid. Probably the Libertarian Party because they'd finally crack that 5% to get federal funding.

MOST Libertarians are relatively "principled" though, they seem to care less about getting votes and more about sticking to their guns. Gary Johnson was probably about as far as they'd go toward compromising their ideology somewhat for the sake of gaining more votes. I find it really hard to see them nominating Trump. Hell Amash could have been nominated this year.

Constitution Party is another story.

I find it more likely he'd run independent/set up his own party though.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/VanityFair/status/1324097044013862914?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7C...
lmao

Even Fox News has limits and Trump has reached them.

Between this and McConnell's comments, seems pretty clear Trump has indeed been thrown under the bus by the GOP and their donor class now that he is no longer of use to them, as I suspected. They will not support him in his efforts to steal this election, and the Supreme Court sure as hell won't.

[Alben Barkley]

PA just turned dark blue on predictit.

I'm no conspiracy theorist but it's odd that every swing state has held off being called for Trump despite him looking good in most of them, but they've had no issues calling some states early for Biden like Arizona.

It's hilarious PA is being called with Trump so far ahead and with such little vote left to count.

Being "ahead" before all the votes come in is completely irrelevant. What matters is what votes have been reported and what votes haven't. And the ones that haven't HEAVILY favor Biden, even more than in most all other states.

[Alben Barkley]

Did the military vote swing D?
The margins in VA Beach, El Paso County, and Bell County are more Dem leaning than 2016.

Probably.

Shockingly, seems like many didn't take too kindly to being called "suckers and losers" by Colonel Bone Spurs.

[Alben Barkley]

If 306 happens, then LOL, well, there really is a Tweet for everything isn't there?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1179422987684077568?s=20

[Alben Barkley]

This night in many ways feels very similar to KY 2019, where despite Trump and Bevin going down the GOP seemingly did pretty well across the board.

Also it seems like McConnell is treating Trump now the same way the KY GOP Legislature treated Bevin after his defeat

I thought exactly the same thing.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/GongwerMichigan/status/1324142278357770240

But I was told John James is the future of the GOP?

Seriously though, after beating expectations twice in a row, he might run for something else again. But right now it's kinda looking like he's the Dino Rossi of Michigan.

[Alben Barkley]

Thank you for sharing.

Shoutout to the one dude wearing a Reagan Bush '84 shirt.

I'm going to say something that's going to piss a lot of people off.

Bring back poll tests.

I'm going on the record here.

If voters were required to have even a rudimentary understanding of governance and the policies in question, Bernie would have won the primaries and general in a landslide.

LOL why am I not surprised you're one of those?

Better not put economics questions on the test, though...

[Alben Barkley]

Well, he's calling on the Proud Boys he put on standby:

https://twitter.com/dlauer/status/1324116642209607680?s=20

[Alben Barkley]

Looks like the actual vote percentage for Biden in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania actually WILL be pretty close to where he was polling in the averages, i.e. right around 50%. But seems like the "undecided voters" were largely just Trump supporters. So maybe THAT'S the source of any "shy Trump vote," as it seemed also to be in 2016. In the end, Biden being at or above 50 did indeed keep him safe though.

[Alben Barkley]

Nicole Wallace said that the Biden team and Trump team are actually talking about White House transition.

It’s over, and it looks like in the end he might actually go away somewhat willingly.

[Alben Barkley]

We’re on pace to have the highest turnout since 1896, about 74%.

That was William Jennings Bryan’s FIRST of three elections.

[Alben Barkley]

Not good at all, and the fact Atlas STILL hasn’t learned to not be an echo chamber is shocking.
After last night, I would expect at least a bit more caution.

The fact that Michigan was called for Biden I would think make you a little more humble and aelf-aware, but apparently not.

[Alben Barkley]

Not good at all, and the fact Atlas STILL hasn’t learned to not be an echo chamber is shocking.
After last night, I would expect at least a bit more caution.

The fact that Michigan was called for Biden I would think you a little more humble and aelf-aware, but apparently not.

The fact that Elliot county went for Trump by a greater margin might teach you a bit, but apparently not.

Don’t forget KY-06!

I said both of these things MIGHT flip, knowing they were uphill battles and being optimistic.

Significant difference between that and running around the forum for months acting extraordinarily smug and certain about a highly specific prediction that has already proved totally wrong.

[Alben Barkley]

Not good at all, and the fact Atlas STILL hasn’t learned to not be an echo chamber is shocking.
After last night, I would expect at least a bit more caution.

The fact that Michigan was called for Biden I would think you a little more humble and aelf-aware, but apparently not.

The fact that Elliot county went for Trump by a greater margin might teach you a bit, but apparently not.

Did Alben Barkley sleep with your girlfriend or something? You have a problem.

I would have, but it’s not like he’s ever had one.

[Alben Barkley]

Even if they f—ked up the AZ call (doubt), it’s over:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324179823565131777?s=20

[Alben Barkley]

Even if they f—ked up the AZ call (doubt), it’s over:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324179823565131777?s=20

It’s not over until Biden hits 270.

Which he will when he wins PA.

[Alben Barkley]

Is there any indication of why AP and Fox News were confident in calling AZ for Biden?

Idk, but I saw someone on Twitter pointed out the total number of votes in Biggs and Lesko district are higher than those in Gallego and Stanton districts.

Total number LEFT or total number COUNTED. If it’s the latter, I feel quite good about it.