2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[MaxQue]

Why hasn't NC been called if it's 100% reporting?

NC accepts ballots until Friday.

[Thunder98]

Trump has collapsed in San Luis Obispo County, CA. Went from Clinton +8 to Biden +21. Also Santa Barbara County is once again the Bellwether for California. Voting closest with the statewide margin.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

NyT:

Speaker Nancy Pelosi acknowledged a “challenging election” in a letter to Democrats, after multiple first-term House Democrats lost their seats to Republicans.

Yeah, I think it's time for her and Hoyer to step down.

Of course it is, and of course they won't.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Perdue down to 50.4% statewide.

My back of the napkin figures say if Biden pulls out Georgia, it should knock him under 50.

Biden has to figure out a bold strategy to get Georgians to give us the Senate.

Two Runoff's in Georgia with a unpopular incumbent in Loeffler and God knows what Trump does in the lame duck and if Mitch refuses to do stimulus before the special elections. It could be a perfect storm and the organizing effort in Atlanta has been amazing, I have a friend who does work out there (she's worked with Ossoff before) and I'd be very confident in GOTV for those two elections especially that you can registered new voters for that election by December 7th. What looked like a nightmare may turn into Biden/Harris Administration's favor. It would also be a test for Schumer and his leadership in the Senate.

Perdue outperforming Trump is very concerning though. Democrats can go 2/2, but it will require an absolutely massive effort.

Honestly, it's just a question of turnout. Which groups will be more enthused? I honestly don't know.

[politics_king]

Perdue down to 50.4% statewide.

My back of the napkin figures say if Biden pulls out Georgia, it should knock him under 50.

Biden has to figure out a bold strategy to get Georgians to give us the Senate.

That bold strategy should be let Trump have a complete meltdown between now and January and hope that some Trump voters stay home.

Also put the pressure on Mitch to get a Stimulus deal done. Trust me, two run-off's in Georgia with the Senate on the line, I think the Democratic Party can unite behind that. Just how the GOP has united against making Nancy the enemy. They better be worried. Just hope this swings Biden's way and Ossoff's.

[Illini Moderate]

NyT:

Speaker Nancy Pelosi acknowledged a “challenging election” in a letter to Democrats, after multiple first-term House Democrats lost their seats to Republicans.

Yeah, I think it's time for her and Hoyer to step down.

Agreed, I’m sick of these old people holding onto power. We need younger leaders who aren’t completely out of touch

[Holmes]

Why hasn't NC been called if it's 100% reporting?

Still VBMs to count, which have until the 12th to come in and be counted.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324130551234727936?s=19

[politics_king]

Why hasn't NC been called if it's 100% reporting?

It's not officially 100%; we don't necessarily know how many late ballots there will be

I've seen it's at 94% on DDHQ

[Skill and Chance]

Is anyone watching the House?  It's been called for the Dems by every news org, but it seems a bit premature to me.  Dems only have 208/218 seats called, and most of the remaining ones are R leads.

So they need another 14 from the uncalled races.  NY counts absentees last, so it's probably safe to say all Dems currently leading there will be fine.  That's 207.  PA also counts absentees last, meaning Lamb and Wild should clearly win (Cartwright might still lose because Scranton already counted its absentees).  That's 209.  VA also counts absentees last, so Spanberger's lead will hold.  That's 210.  Bordeaux is clearly going to win GA-07 when Atlanta is done counting absentees, so 211.  IL has a postmark deadline and counts absentees last, so Bustos and Underwood will likely make it.  213.  In Michigan, Stevens and Kildee should be fine with the absentee count.  215.  

So if everything broke strongly against them in the West where we don't know much yet, they could theoretically lose the majority, but something like 225 seems more likely.

[compucomp]

Is anyone watching the House?  It's been called for the Dems by every news org, but it seems a bit premature to me.  Dems only have 208/218 seats called, and most of the remaining ones are R leads.

CA takes their time to fully count the votes.

Also NY has expanded mail-in voting this year, and if the primary was an indication it will be a long time before we get full results. Likely the mail votes will skew Dem which will help some of the Long Island and upstate seats which look dubious right now.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Is anyone watching the House?  It's been called for the Dems by every news org, but it seems a bit premature to me.  Dems only have 208/218 seats called, and most of the remaining ones are R leads.

So they need another 14 from the uncalled races.  NY counts absentees last, so it's probably safe to say all Dems currently leading there will be fine.  That's 207.  PA also counts absentees last, meaning Lamb and Wild should clearly win (Cartwright might still lose because Scranton already counted its absentees).  That's 209.  VA also counts absentees last, so Spanberger's lead will hold.  That's 210.  Bordeaux is clearly going to win GA-07 when Atlanta is done counting absentees, so 211.  IL has a postmark deadline and counts absentees last, so Bustos and Underwood will likely make it.  213.  In Michigan, Stevens and Kildee should be fine with the absentee count.  215.  

So if everything broke strongly against them in the West where we don't know much yet, they could theoretically lose the majority, but something like 225 seems more likely.

Yeah, 226-209 is my current over-under.

[politics_king]

NyT:

Speaker Nancy Pelosi acknowledged a “challenging election” in a letter to Democrats, after multiple first-term House Democrats lost their seats to Republicans.

Yeah, I think it's time for her and Hoyer to step down.

Of course it is, and of course they won't.

If you have to keep an establishment type as Speaker of the House, I would want to see Hakeem Jeffries or Linda Sanchez.

[Illini Moderate]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324130551234727936?s=19

Lol at “the damage has already been done”, like yeah no sh*t, it’s been done by you

[Inmate Trump]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324130551234727936?s=19

What damage?  Votes being counted?

[Alben Barkley]

Why hasn't NC been called if it's 100% reporting?

Late arriving ballots can be counted until the 12th.

[Pericles]

NyT:

Speaker Nancy Pelosi acknowledged a “challenging election” in a letter to Democrats, after multiple first-term House Democrats lost their seats to Republicans.

Yeah, I think it's time for her and Hoyer to step down.

No, Biden will need her skills for the next two years. She might be retiring in 2022 anyway, which is probably for the best. It is also too early to say how well or badly House Democrats have done exactly, though a win is a win. Yet again, it's not a level playing field, the tipping-point House district is likely several points to the right of the nation, so in a way any majority is a good result for Democrats. Overall though, let's show some patience and wait for the full results (remember 2018 after all).

[Podgy the Bear]

Democrats just didn't do well on their own--which is why the Senate races were underwhelming and House seats were lost.  

Biden did stitch a coalition to pick up independents plus a few Republicans--which is why he is running ahead of the dpwnstream tickets nationwide.   There was just enough ticket splitting to make a difference.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324130551234727936?s=19

What does this translate to in English?

"I lost, but I won't officially concede and instead claim fraud." ?

[Holmes]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324130551234727936?s=19

I know you’re posting this because you support him or whatever but to the rest of us, this is really hilarious.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324130551234727936?s=19

#concededonald

[Skill and Chance]

Is anyone watching the House?  It's been called for the Dems by every news org, but it seems a bit premature to me.  Dems only have 208/218 seats called, and most of the remaining ones are R leads.

So they need another 14 from the uncalled races.  NY counts absentees last, so it's probably safe to say all Dems currently leading there will be fine.  That's 207.  PA also counts absentees last, meaning Lamb and Wild should clearly win (Cartwright might still lose because Scranton already counted its absentees).  That's 209.  VA also counts absentees last, so Spanberger's lead will hold.  That's 210.  Bordeaux is clearly going to win GA-07 when Atlanta is done counting absentees, so 211.  IL has a postmark deadline and counts absentees last, so Bustos and Underwood will likely make it.  213.  In Michigan, Stevens and Kildee should be fine with the absentee count.  215.  

So if everything broke strongly against them in the West where we don't know much yet, they could theoretically lose the majority, but something like 225 seems more likely.

Yeah, 226-209 is my current over-under.

Still, it's wild that they did this poorly with a presidential win.  Pelosi really dropped the ball.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is it a pretty safe bet to say Peters will cling on in MI? He's currently leading, but not by much.

[politics_king]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324130551234727936?s=19

He knows it's over. Maybe he'll actually concede while complaining the whole time about fraud, blah, blah, blah.

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324130551234727936?s=19

What damage?  Votes being counted?

The bruise on his ego.