2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

PA just turned dark blue on predictit.

GA just turned blue.

[TopShelfGoal]

I am LOVING what a horrible time the orange one is having right now      

[politics_king]

Election Betting Odds has it 306-232 on their betting markets. LOL!

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1324136038546264064?s=19

Great few days for the House GOP..

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is Nate Silver still posting as if he knows what's happening with the election?

The biggest story out of this election is how 90+% of every poll recorded, was grossly inaccurate, almost to the point where the question has to be asked whether the pollsters are intentionally misleading people as a strategy to suppress the vote in swing states.

Polls were suggesting Biden would win Wisconsin by 8-10 points. Similar with Michigan.

With Florida they were out by 4-5 points too.

You may as well accept polls from random 40 year old dudes in their basement - they would be just as accurate as the current pollsters.

Counterexamples: GA, MN, NH, ME (presidential) ...

Trying to figure out why some state polls were way off and others were close is going to be a very interesting and high-priority project for pollsters in the coming months.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/VanityFair/status/1324097044013862914?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7C...
lmao

Even Fox News has limits and Trump has reached them.

Between this and McConnell's comments, seems pretty clear Trump has indeed been thrown under the bus by the GOP and their donor class now that he is no longer of use to them, as I suspected. They will not support him in his efforts to steal this election, and the Supreme Court sure as hell won't.

[TopShelfGoal]

So I guess the 6 PM Georgia drop was fake news and we're not getting anything until AZ and GA both drop at 9?

I only saw 9 EST Georgia drop. My guess is someone saw 6 PST on twitter missed the PST part and started spreading the rumor.

[Meclazine for Israel]

The votes trickling in for GA and PA are definitely favouring Biden.

Statistically speaking, if the numbers continue on the current trend, Biden will win GA. PA is too close to say either way.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 67,000 (97% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 93,016 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~451,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 179,300 of them - (39.7%)

NV - Biden up by 7,647 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~194,200 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 93,300 of them - (48.0%)

GA - Biden down by 57,266 (94% counted)

Of the remaining ~308,450 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 183,000 of them - (59.3%)

PA - Biden down by 256,058 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~999,400 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 627,700 of them - (62.8%)

AK - Biden down by 51,400 (56% counted)

Of the remaining ~135,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 93,200 of them - (69.0%)

Biden needs to win AZ and NV to win the Presidency with 270 EC votes.

The GA and PA % required for Biden on the right is dropping with each vote count release.

[GeorgiaModerate]

PA just turned dark blue on predictit.

I'm no conspiracy theorist but it's odd that every swing state has held off being called for Trump despite him looking good in most of them, but they've had no issues calling some states early for Biden like Arizona.

It's hilarious PA is being called with Trump so far ahead and with such little vote left to count.

You do understand that PredictIt is a prediction market where people bet on outcomes, not a media outlet, right?  No outlet has called PA for Biden yet, nor will they for some time, I'm sure.

[Alben Barkley]

PA just turned dark blue on predictit.

I'm no conspiracy theorist but it's odd that every swing state has held off being called for Trump despite him looking good in most of them, but they've had no issues calling some states early for Biden like Arizona.

It's hilarious PA is being called with Trump so far ahead and with such little vote left to count.

Being "ahead" before all the votes come in is completely irrelevant. What matters is what votes have been reported and what votes haven't. And the ones that haven't HEAVILY favor Biden, even more than in most all other states.

[Alcibiades]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1324137523862511618

[DrScholl]

PA just turned dark blue on predictit.

I'm no conspiracy theorist but it's odd that every swing state has held off being called for Trump despite him looking good in most of them, but they've had no issues calling some states early for Biden like Arizona.

It's hilarious PA is being called with Trump so far ahead and with such little vote left to count.

Predictit doesn't call races. It's not a news outlet.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

reminder that even if Fulton doesn't put Biden in the lead, Dougherty is still not all in yet.

[Rand]

[Fargobison]

https://twitter.com/jwpetersNYT/status/1324128772849913863

[BudgieForce]

reminder that even if Fulton doesn't put Biden in the lead, Dougherty is still not all in yet.

And Gwinnett isnt entirely in either.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

PA just turned dark blue on predictit.

I'm no conspiracy theorist but it's odd that every swing state has held off being called for Trump despite him looking good in most of them, but they've had no issues calling some states early for Biden like Arizona.

It's hilarious PA is being called with Trump so far ahead and with such little vote left to count.

1) PredictIt is a betting site, not a news organization. 2) There are, like, 900K mail in ballots left to count, and the reason why the odds are with Biden is because those mail-ins are heavily favoring him and have been eating away Trump's lead at a pace that points to Biden eventually taking over.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/jwpetersNYT/status/1324128772849913863

Spicy times on Fox News. I like it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

reminder that even if Fulton doesn't put Biden in the lead, Dougherty is still not all in yet.

And Gwinnett isnt entirely in either.

Gwinett is hovering around 60% Biden, right?

[It’s so Joever]

Did the military vote swing D?
The margins in VA Beach, El Paso County, and Bell County are more Dem leaning than 2016.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

So we know that Nevada and North Carolina will not be resolved tonight, and that Arizona is getting an update at 9:00. Do we know for sure if anything else is coming in from Pennsylvania or Georgia tonight?

[Inmate Trump]

Nothing from Nevada until noon tomorrow.

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/jwpetersNYT/status/1324128772849913863

[DaleCooper]

I suspect that Nevada's delay is because they don't want to share just a small amount of votes that would exclude Clark County and give the false impression that Trump is closing in or something. It's for the best that they release all the votes, or close to it, at once tomorrow.

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

https://twitter.com/jwpetersNYT/status/1324128772849913863

I just saw that, but I wasn't sure what was going on. I was half paying attention so I didn't realize a campaign spokesman was saying that. We were very confused why it abruptly went to commercial.