Polish Politics and Elections

[Silent Hunter]

And Netherlands and UK.

The UK ones can be a bit off sometimes. In 2015, the exit poll was "Conservatives Largest Party" i.e. biggest in a Hung Parliament, not Conservative Majority.

2019 was pretty close though:

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/ipsos-2019-general-election-exit-poll-accurate-again

[GALeftist]

Would be incredible to see PiS finally dethroned. Poland deserves this. Here's hoping!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Any way to follow coverage in "english"?

You could probably find a liveblog. But not a livestream.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

The UK ones can be a bit off sometimes. In 2015, the exit poll was "Conservatives Largest Party" i.e. biggest in a Hung Parliament, not Conservative Majority.

2019 was pretty close though:

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/ipsos-2019-general-election-exit-poll-accurate-again

IIRC, the exit poll has an unofficial up or down 20 seat margin of error for each party, and the 2015 one only understimated the Tories by 15 (not much more than the 11 more seats Labour ended up winning in 2019)

[Pericles]

New Zealand I believe is the first abroad country to fully report. 2/2 precincts

KO 230 votes 52.15%
Lewica 99 votes 22.45%
TD 54 votes 12.24%
PiS 33 votes  7.48%
Kon 17 votes 3.85%
PJJ 5 votes 1.13%
BPT 3 votes 0.54%

We might not get it right in our own elections but we do the right thing for other countries!

[rob in cal]

What will be biggest specific policy changes under new govt?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I am expecting a PiS defeat, but it's not a high confidence guess. Tusk has largely unified the non-PiS parties behind him.
Are Russia and Ukraine having voting in this election?

[MaxQue]

So far nearly all counted votes are from abroad and basically all of them from the United States and Canada,  so they skew heavily towards PiS.

What´s the main reason Poles in Northern America are more conservative?? Is it because they emigrated much earlier than the Poles in Europe and therefore their only contact to their homeland is TVP Polonia??

It's also their reasoning, i.e. to escape "komunizm" on behalf of "freedom".

Through, from Canada, I see differences. Montreal, Vancouver, Ottawa and Calgary voted for PO, while Toronto 3x, Mississauga x2, Winnipeg and Edmonton voted for PiS.

[Gass3268]

Any breakdown of the vote here in the US? Image there were a lot of voters here in the Chicago area.

[adma]

So far nearly all counted votes are from abroad and basically all of them from the United States and Canada,  so they skew heavily towards PiS.

What´s the main reason Poles in Northern America are more conservative?? Is it because they emigrated much earlier than the Poles in Europe and therefore their only contact to their homeland is TVP Polonia??

It's also their reasoning, i.e. to escape "komunizm" on behalf of "freedom".

Through, from Canada, I see differences. Montreal, Vancouver, Ottawa and Calgary voted for PO, while Toronto 3x, Mississauga x2, Winnipeg and Edmonton voted for PiS.

Probably a bit of a "Catholic" vs "secularizing" divide as well (and in Toronto/Mississauga, a touch of Ford Nation)

[MaxQue]

Any breakdown of the vote here in the US? Image there were a lot of voters here in the Chicago area.

There is 8 voting stations in Chicago.

3 of them didn't report yet, 4 are a PiS lanslide and 1 is a PO landslide.

The 6 stations elsewhere in the state are also easy PiS wins.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

132 out of 31,497 polling stations reporting. PO is now leading, 36.8%-36.2%.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Guys, something isn't right here.

These results are way too slow



And Polish television is still reporting that people are waiting to vote at 1AM.

So I suspect PiS might try to rig this and do their Jan 6.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How much opportunity does Poland's electoral process leave for vote rigging?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Polish police say three Warsaw polling stations had bomb alerts

This is also weird (Reuters reports about bombing alerts near Warsaw polling stations disrupting the process).

[adma]

Any breakdown of the vote here in the US? Image there were a lot of voters here in the Chicago area.

There is 8 voting stations in Chicago.

3 of them didn't report yet, 4 are a PiS lanslide and 1 is a PO landslide.

The 6 stations elsewhere in the state are also easy PiS wins.

I wouldn't be surprised if the PO landslide is the most "urban cosmopolitan" of the lot.

[Duke of York]

Guys, something isn't right here.

These results are way too slow



And Polish television is still reporting that people are waiting to vote at 1AM.

So I suspect PiS might try to rig this and do their Jan 6.

Oh what basis do you make this statement?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Guys, something isn't right here.

These results are way too slow



And Polish television is still reporting that people are waiting to vote at 1AM.

So I suspect PiS might try to rig this and do their Jan 6.

Oh what basis do you make this statement?

Well let's say i hope i'm wrong. I just don't have a good feeling about this.

[M0096]

That's the only precinct where people are still voting. I remember that during 2020 presidential election people also voted until about 2 AM in Split, Croatia.

[Ferguson97]

So as I understand it, the bad guys lost?

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

7/8 of the votes in (250/31497) are still abroad.

More full country votes:
China:
KO 50.79%
Lewica 17.73%
TD 15.82%
Kon 7.54%
PiS 6.55%
BPT 0.99%
PJJ 0.58%

Canada:
PiS 47.07%
KO 32.41%
Kon 6.25%
Lewica 5.66%
TD 4.97%
PJJ 3.20%
BPT 0.44%

The US while not fully in accounts for half of all votes in (including those coming in that aren't abroad votes) [~40k of 78k]

PiS 40.01%
KO 35.78%
TD 8.31%
Lewica 6.65%
Kon 5.97%
PJJ 2.83%
BPT 0.46%

3 party opposition alliance just over 50%

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

PJJ is conspiracy theorists on the far right who claim COVID was a planned "medical experiment"

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So as I understand it, the bad guys lost?

Declaring the result now is like declaring an American presidential election on the basis of 7% or so of the vote from Kentucky and Indiana being counted.
Counting has been annoyingly slow.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

The only area in Poland itself with any sizable portion of the vote in is Krakow with 6.6% in.

PiS 40.73%
KO 27.77%
TD 13.59%
Lewica 7.37%
Kon 6.74%
BS 2.21%
PJJ 1.61%

3 party opposition alliance just under a majority, 48.73%

[M0096]

That results from Kraków are only hospitals and retirement houses so aren't the best indicators.