Polish Politics and Elections

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Dankeschön to the Polish voters for successfully following the voting preferences of the Bundesrepublik Deutschland. The satellite regime is looking forward to outlawing the Catholic church and forcing all altar servers to undergo gender transition treatment. Berlin, 16.10.2023, der Bundespräsident.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

https://twitter.com/brent_peabody/status/1713911406913839491?s=20


comparing to current results as I write (71.63% in, so 7.82% more)

PiS: 37.33% (-0.21%)
KO: 28.79% (+0.23%)
TD: 14.44% (+0.02%)
Lewica: 8.29% (-0.03%)
Kon: 7.27% (+/- 0.00%)
BS: 1.90% (-0.01%)
PJJ: 1.65% (+0.01%)
MN: 0.17% (-0.02%)
Others: 0.16% (+0.01%)


If trends follow this perfectly to 100% (obviously they won't but why not)

PiS: 36.57%
KO: 29.62%
TD: 14.51%
Lewica: 8.18%
Kon: 7.27%
BS: 1.86%
PJJ: 1.69%
MN: 0.10%
Others: 0.20%

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

with only 2.5% more in from when I started writing that post, PiS has already gone down about as much as they did in the 7.8% before it.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

74.05% reporting (+/- compared to 71.63% in)

PiS: 37.13% (-0.20%)
KO: 28.99% (+0.20%)
TD: 14.46% (+0.02%)
Lewica: 8.31% (+0.02%)
Kon: 7.25% (-0.02%)
BS: 1.90% (+/- 0.00%)
PJJ: 1.64% (-0.01%)
MN: 0.16% (-0.01%)
Others: 0.15% (-0.01%)

[Germany1994]

How is the mood at TVP?? The same like at Fox News in 2012??  

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

55.55% In:

PIS 38%
KO 28%
3rd Way 14%
New Left 8%
KON 7%

https://tvpworld.com/73452472/polish-parliamentary-election-results-after-5555-of-votes-counted

I have to imagine that on these numbers, if these trends continue, the exit polls will turn out to be pretty accurate?

More or less

You can see the Confederacy overperformance as well

I was right to include the Disco Stu caveat because the counting bias is holding good, but is uneven; between 60% and 75% PiS fell and PO rose by 0.7% apiece, which isn't that far off from the 1.0% and 0.9% between 45% and 60%, but, as has been pointed out, that was disproportionately within the last few vote dumps. It does feel like we'll be looking at a pretty accurate exit poll when all is said and done.

[Germany1994]

Pis just dropped below 37 %. 

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Are MN actually likely to get a seat at this point? They've dropped 6-7% in some of their strongest areas in the Opole constituency (Krapkowicki and Opolski), and those areas are fully in. It looks like they have nowhere to go but down, and even if they stayed where they're at it's uncertain if they'd get a seat if my math is right.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

76.73% reporting (+/- compared to 74.05% in)

PiS: 36.93% (-0.20%)
KO: 29.20% (+0.21%)
TD: 14.49% (+0.03%)
Lewica: 8.31% (+/- 0.00%)
Kon: 7.24% (-0.01%)
BS: 1.88% (-0.02%)
PJJ: 1.64% (+/- 0.00%)
MN: 0.16% (+/- 0.00%)
Others: 0.15% (+/- 0.00%)

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

MN now at 5.85% in Opole. For reference, they got 7.9% in 2019. Kon got 5.7% in 2019 in Opole, and no seats. I think MN loses their seat.

[Logical]

Are MN actually likely to get a seat at this point? They've dropped 6-7% in some of their strongest areas in the Opole constituency (Krapkowicki and Opolski), and those areas are fully in. It looks like they have nowhere to go but down, and even if they stayed where they're at it's uncertain if they'd get a seat if my math is right.

They're ~1000 votes away from the final seat with 87% counted. Quite a hill to climb.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

PiS and KO continue to trade %s almost evenly as more votes come in, PiS down 0.1% from the last update I gave, KO up 0.09%.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

79.15% reporting (+/- compared to 76.73% in)

PiS: 36.78% (-0.15%)
KO: 29.33% (+0.13%)
TD: 14.47% (-0.02%)
Lewica: 8.37% (+0.06%)
Kon: 7.23% (-0.01%)
BS: 1.88% (+/- 0.00%)
PJJ: 1.64% (+/- 0.00%)
MN: 0.16% (-0.01%)
Others: 0.14% (-0.01%)

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

We've crossed the 80% mark. PiS down and PO up 1.0% (rounded to the nearest tenth, not hundredth, of a percent) from the 60% mark in the chart up-thread.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

It's looking like the original IPSOS exit poll slightly underestimated Kon and TD while overestimating PiS and KO, but not by much.

[Germany1994]

It's looking like the original IPSOS exit poll slightly underestimated Kon and TD while overestimating PiS and KO, but not by much.

Maybe Slovakian pollsters should ask their Polish colleagues how to improve. 

[Vosem]

Who actually votes for TD? I understand agrarianism in the post-communist 1990s context, but in most places these sorts of parties went away and their supporters went on to vote for what we would think of as "populists". Why did Polish agrarianism both survive and end up as part of the relatively 'liberal' coalition?

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

loving the roman statue profile pic twitter people melting down saying that the opposition winning is "eurocuck logic" because PiS is ahead of KO and that the 3 opposition parties have "totally opposing ideologies"

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

82.91% reporting (+/- compared to 79.15% in)

PiS: 36.78% (+/- 0%)
KO: 29.36% (+0.03%)
TD: 14.48% (+0.01%)
Lewica: 8.34% (-0.03%)
Kon: 7.24% (+0.01%)
BS: 1.87% (-0.01%)
PJJ: 1.64% (+/- 0.00%)
MN: 0.15% (-0.01%)
Others: 0.14% (+/- 0.00%)

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Opole is 98% in.

MN at 5.26% and 24,857 votes. Most of what's left is in an area they got about 6% in, so it looks like they might narrowly get in, but it'll be close.

[Epaminondas]

Poznán gives 44% to KO, do they do better anywhere else?

But nationally the coalition doesn't look like it'll make it past 30. For a moment it looked promising.

Lower down we got the outcome for Częstochowa, is there a running tally of seats somewhere? I don't see one on Wybory.pl

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Worth noting that Warszawa is only 60-ish percent in. It has KO over PiS 42-22 at the moment, so the rest coming in should be a big boost to KO.

[Germany1994]

Worth noting that Warszawa is only 60-ish percent in. It has KO over PiS 42-22 at the moment, so the rest coming in should be a big boost to KO.

And there are still little to no votes from areas where KO will do very well, like Świnoujście  or Gliwice.

[M0096]

Consituency no. 23 (Rzeszów) fully reported
PiS - 51,60% (-10,78)
KO - 17,70% (+3,31)
Third Way - 12,42% (+4,63)
Konfederacja - 9,48% (+1,23)
Left - 4,87% (-1,72)

PiS - 9 (-1)
KO - 3 (+1)
Third Way - 2 (+1)
Konfederacja - 1
Left - 0 (-1)

https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/23

[Storr]

Poznán gives 44% to KO, do they do better anywhere else?

But nationally the coalition doesn't look like it'll make it past 30. For a moment it looked promising.

Lower down we got the outcome for Częstochowa, is there a running tally of seats somewhere? I don't see one on Wybory.pl

Poznan was where KO did best in 2019 with 45.38%, fwiw.

Electoral District 18 (Czestochowa), 100% reporting, change from 2019 in Parenthesis:

Law and Justice: 36.35% (-7.93%) 117,756
Civic Coalition:   29.11% (+6.48%) 94,313
Third Way:          14.72% (-0.87%)  47,698
New Left:            9.41% (+0.73%) 30,497
Confederation:    6.56% (+0.49%)  21,256

Edit: Anyone please feel free to do the seat distribution math, I can't at the moment because I'm in class right now. lol.