Polish Politics and Elections

[Germany1994]

The end is finally near, only about 500 districts left to count!! 

[Oryxslayer]

Consituency no. 25 (Gdańsk) fully reported
KO - 41.70% (+0.39) 257,009
PiS - 25.20% (-6.90) 155,318
Third Way - 14.70% (+8.80) 90,599
Left - 9.41% (-4.06) 57,967
Konfederacja - 6.23% (-0.98) 38,406


Seats
KO - 6
PiS - 3 (-1)
Third Way - 2 (+2)
Left - 1
Konfederacja - 0


https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/25

TD got allocated a seat that Konfederacja won in 2019. I consider that impressive given they were starting from nothing in an urban area, and you would think Konfederacja would be able to hold the handful of seats they won last time.

[Logical]

Consituency no. 3 (Wrocław) fully reported
KO - 36.94% (+4.14) 286,713
PiS - 26.66% (-8.01) 206,899
Third Way - 13.74% (+7.28) 106,624
Left - 11.35% (-4.06) 88,089
Konfederacja - 6.98% (-0.47) 54,132


Seats
KO - 6 (+1)
PiS - 4 (-1)
Third Way - 2 (+1)
Left - 1 (-1)
Konfederacja - 1


https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/3

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Turns out what I had to do took less time than expected.


98.72% reporting (+/- compared to 97.01% in)

PiS: 35.76% (-0.14%)
KO: 30.36% (+0.13%)
TD: 14.43% (-0.01%)
Lewica: 8.53% (+0.03%)
Kon: 7.15% (-0.01%)
BS: 1.87% (+/- 0.00%)
PJJ: 1.63% (+/- 0.00%)
MN: 0.12% (-0.01%)
Others: 0.15% (+/- 0.00%)

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

So close to bringing the margin below 5%, but Warsaw is now 94% in so I think it'll be just above 5% margin for PiS over KO.

[Logical]

Consituency no. 13 (Kraków) fully reported
KO - 30.73% (+0.25) 232,799
PiS - 30.68% (-8.88) 232,430
Third Way - 16.86% (+9.59) 127,693
Left - 11.04% (-1.97) 83,633
Konfederacja - 7.71% (-0.28) 58,435


Seats
KO - 5 (+1)
PiS - 5 (-1)
Third Way - 2 (+1)
Left - 1 (-1)
Konfederacja - 1


https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/13

[Epaminondas]

So close to bringing the margin below 5%, but Warsaw is now 94% in so I think it'll be just above 5% margin for PiS over KO.

Probably 5.3% in the end.
Still a phenomenal improvement over the 16.2% PiS lead over PO just 4 years ago.

[M0096]

In Lesser Poland every Senate seat was held by their initial party, but constituencies 30 and 31 were very close.
30 - PiS won by 1,68% margin
31 - PiS won by 2,08% margin

[Epaminondas]

Seats
(...)

https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/13

Before the night is out, how did you convert vote numbers to seats so fast? It's not explicitly on the website.

[Logical]

Consituency no. 26 (Gdynia) fully reported
KO - 37.91% (+2.06) 258,909
PiS - 29.24% (-7.19) 199,709
Third Way - 13.59% (+3.65) 92,793
Left - 8.33% (-4.14) 56,887
Konfederacja - 7.21% (-0.09) 49,203


Seats
KO - 6 (+1)
PiS - 4 (-1)
Third Way - 2 (+1)
Left - 1 (-1)
Konfederacja - 1


https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/26

[Logical]

Seats
(...)

https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/13

Before the night is out, how did you convert vote numbers to seats so fast? It's not explicitly on the website.

Practice. I have memorized most electoral formulas.

[Oryxslayer]

Seats
(...)

https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/13

Before the night is out, how did you convert vote numbers to seats so fast? It's not explicitly on the website.

I mean if the vote totals are final, its not hard to run a formula in your favorite stats program, including excel, when it comes to D'Hondt. It's just Votes for a Party/(Seats Allocated to A Party so far, plus 1), until you run out of seats to allocate.

Each seat in a constituency is basically FPTP, so you start with the final results for Seat 1, then you add 1 to the "seats allocated" spot for the party who got Seat 1. That parties vote total should now be divided by 2, the rest by just 1 and remain the same as before. Then again see who is the largest party now, and they win Seat 2. And so it goes until you have no more seats left to allocate.

[Logical]

Consituency no. 8 (Zielona Góra) fully reported
KO - 37.73% (+6.46) 195,091
PiS - 27.76% (-6.54) 143,530
Third Way - 15.07% (+3.44) 77,933
Left - 9.27% (-6.34) 47,911
Konfederacja - 6.51% (-0.09) 33,672


Seats
KO - 5 (+1)
PiS - 4
Third Way - 2 (+1)
Left - 1 (-1)
Konfederacja - 0 (-1)


https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/8

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Over half of what's left is in Constituency 19 (Warsaw+Abroad)


116 polls of 275 are abroad (mostly european, especially the UK where only 23% of polls are in)

KO should increase a good bit more with those. UK polls are 47 KO, 13 PIS, 13 TD, 13 Lewica, 11 Kon.

[Oryxslayer]

Going through the senate districts again, I think things currently stand at:

Opposition Senate Pact - 65 (+14)
 - PO: 41 (-2)
 - Third Way: 11 (+8)
 - Left: 9 (+7)
 - Indies with the Senate Pact Label: 4 (+1)

PiS+: 34 (-15)

Other Independents: 1 (+1) (district 18, where Józef Zajac won against PiS. He Lacks the Senate Pact label, but there is no other Senate Pact candidate in the seat)


Note: PO didn't actually lose seats compared to 2019 electorally. They only made gains. Rather, many seats PO won in 2019 were allocated to their pact partners, some safe, some closer.

[Logical]

Consituency no. 9 (Łódź) fully reported
KO - 41.07% (+4,25) 187,527
PiS - 26.82% (-6.08) 122,433
Left - 12.22% (-7.88) 55,770
Third Way - 11.89% (+7.36) 54,283
Konfederacja - 5.57% (-1.12) 25,428


Seats
KO - 5 (+1)
PiS - 3
Left - 1 (-1)
Third Way - 1 (+1)
Konfederacja - 0 (-1)


https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/9

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

146/195 remaining polls to report are in Warsaw or overseas. The UK has some more reporting and only brought KO down by 1% there while pushing PiS behind Lewica for 2nd.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Party difference is now only 5.18%. KO might actually be able to close that to 5.00 if the abroad results keep coming in with the same margins.

[Logical]

I believe that this will be the final seat distribution, give or take a seat.

PiS - 194 (-41)
KO - 157 (+23)
Third Way - 65 (+35)
Left - 26 (-23)
Konfederacja - 18 (+7)
German Minority 0 (-1)

KO + TD + Left = 248

Compared to the initial exit poll
PiS -6
KO -6
TD +10
Left -4
KWN +6
The errors balance out so the number of seats the opposition coalition wins remains spot on.

[Progressive Pessimist]

You can't spell "piss" without PIS.

It's about time Poles told them to piss off.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

so why did Lewica do so bad compared to 2019? Voters coalescing behind KO to try and kick PiS out better?

[Logical]

Maps of the Senate

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

with over 99% in I'm willing to do my very preliminary full proportional results that I always do.

+/- are compared to Logical's seat distribution projections.

PiS: 164 seats (-30)
KO: 140 seats (-17)
TD: 66 seats (+1)
Lewica: 39 seats (+13)
Kon: 33 seats (+15)
BS: 9 seats (+9)
PJJ: 7 seats (+7)
MN: 1 seat (+1)
RDiP: 1 seat (+1)

RDiP [0.5375 quotas] gets the last seat over PJJ [7.4755 quotas] by 2867 votes.

RDiP I can't really figure out much aside from populist stuff, any poles or those with better knowledge let me know.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

I also only now realized I used the same color for PJJ and Kon, lol. I'll change that in the like, 2 remaining updates to my % count.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

UK had a bit of a vote dump, which brought PiS back up to 2nd but still 33 points behind KO.


KO is only 5.10 away from PiS now, so I think it's safe to say with the rest of the overseas vote and the bit of Warsaw that's left, KO will be within 5.