NJ-GOV 2021 megathread
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Badger
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« Reply #750 on: November 04, 2021, 12:54:14 PM »

I love how everyone from all sides of politics is just dunking on Sweeney.

Machine politics is a cancer on democracy and needs to die a painful death.

Sweeney stood upto the unions and they spent 5 million against him. Hardly a standard of machines



RIP HERO Purple heart
It's fun to meme about Sweeney's defeat, but unironically, I do feel his defeat is bad news for NJ, on net.
I worry about big spending taking over the state government if he leaves the scene.

I wouldn't be surprised if Sweeney's loss leads Murphy/legislative Dems to go all-in on an ambitious agenda and causes big backlash against them in 2023 and 2025.

Back in 1991, Dem Governor Florio (who came in with a trifecta) instituted a massive tax increase that resulted in the GOP winning legislative supermajorities.
Yeah, it's good for Ds to have brakes, like Sweeney, there. Either he's a check on the most unpopular things that Ds, drunk on hubris, might want to pass, or the electorate might feel like they have to elect a Republican to provide that check.
Murphy and other Dems don't know how good they have it.

 Murphy's policies are actually quite popular. It's only because he succeeded with a progress of agenda that he likely succeeded rather than being labeled as a do nothing as Biden is, I hate to say somewhat accurately, I'll be at 1st I'll be at for Joe and Kristen, being labeled.

Let's face it, these policies such as a $15 minimum wage, marijuana legalization, and high income tax increases are vastly more politically popular than the sh**t Jack what's his face was pushing. Murphy almost lost because of because of a combination of national trends, the lingering covid shut down, and one of the stupidest and most harmful gaffses a politician has made in recent memory just before an election.
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Badger
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« Reply #751 on: November 04, 2021, 01:04:24 PM »

Gotta add here, perhaps the biggest surprise of the night to me was the small  Is percentage margin between Murphy andT-Mac.  If you had told me the latter  It would perform less than 2% points better than the latter, I would've happily assumed that the polls were wrong and we're wrong and The Virginia democratic GOTV effort was strong enough to Is pool it out, and even then I would have wondered why Murphy underperformed under performed so much..
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #752 on: November 04, 2021, 01:07:40 PM »

I love how everyone from all sides of politics is just dunking on Sweeney.

Machine politics is a cancer on democracy and needs to die a painful death.

Sweeney stood upto the unions and they spent 5 million against him. Hardly a standard of machines



RIP HERO Purple heart
It's fun to meme about Sweeney's defeat, but unironically, I do feel his defeat is bad news for NJ, on net.
I worry about big spending taking over the state government if he leaves the scene.

I wouldn't be surprised if Sweeney's loss leads Murphy/legislative Dems to go all-in on an ambitious agenda and causes big backlash against them in 2023 and 2025.

Back in 1991, Dem Governor Florio (who came in with a trifecta) instituted a massive tax increase that resulted in the GOP winning legislative supermajorities.
Yeah, it's good for Ds to have brakes, like Sweeney, there. Either he's a check on the most unpopular things that Ds, drunk on hubris, might want to pass, or the electorate might feel like they have to elect a Republican to provide that check.
Murphy and other Dems don't know how good they have it.

 Murphy's policies are actually quite popular. It's only because he succeeded with a progress of agenda that he likely succeeded rather than being labeled as a do nothing as Biden is, I hate to say somewhat accurately, I'll be at 1st I'll be at for Joe and Kristen, being labeled.

Let's face it, these policies such as a $15 minimum wage, marijuana legalization, and high income tax increases are vastly more politically popular than the sh**t Jack what's his face was pushing. Murphy almost lost because of because of a combination of national trends, the lingering covid shut down, and one of the stupidest and most harmful gaffses a politician has made in recent memory just before an election.
Well, there are definitely things to Murphy's program there were quite popular. But NJ voters didn't seem to give him credit for them very much (in part because he didn't seem to campaign on them as much) and I'm skeptical that they positively love taxes.

If Murphy and the D trifecta overreach on the tax issue it could absolutely give Rs gains in the state legislature. 49 states (including NJ) require balanced budgets. If Murphy has big spending plans, he is likely to have to raise taxes, and if the increases in expenditure are high enough, then the tax increases are going to have to go up accordingly. Either that or they put in a lot of fees, which is essentially a tax by another name, and might still annoy the public.

NJ has high quality-of-life, but that doesn't necessarily mean people are going to accept ever-increasing tax increases to fund higher government expenditures aimed at increasing that. The median voter is probably significantly influenced by the tax issue even if they might not vote on that basis most of the time anymore for the time being. It is that tendency in the state Sweeney represented and thus his defeat could end quite badly for Ds in the long run, even if it sounds all nice and dandy in the short term.
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BigSerg
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« Reply #753 on: November 04, 2021, 01:15:49 PM »

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Big Abraham
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« Reply #754 on: November 04, 2021, 01:30:34 PM »

Edward Durr will be the state legislator of fiscal conservatism par excellence. My man raised $10k and spent a few dozen bucks on flyers and doughnuts.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #755 on: November 04, 2021, 01:34:15 PM »

Edward Durr will be the state legislator of fiscal conservatism par excellence. My man raised $10k and spent a few dozen bucks on flyers and doughnuts.

His victory certainly is astonishing, though not unprecedented. There have been instances before of people with few or no resources running for political office and winning.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #756 on: November 04, 2021, 01:40:58 PM »

So it appears that Camden, Bergen, Burlington, Essex, Hudson, Mercer, Middlesex and Union voted to the left of the statewide result.

While Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, Salem, Sussex and Warren voted to the right of it.

Passaic and Somerset are almost exactly tracking the statewide result. IDK about Somerset, but the next time a Republican does win statewide, I think they'll most likely win Passaic.
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Big Abraham
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« Reply #757 on: November 04, 2021, 01:44:06 PM »

Edward Durr will be the state legislator of fiscal conservatism par excellence. My man raised $10k and spent a few dozen bucks on flyers and doughnuts.

His victory certainly is astonishing, though not unprecedented. There have been instances before of people with few or no resources running for political office and winning.

Against someone nearly as powerful as Murphy himself? Sweeney is the full embodiment of everything that is the corruption of the all powerful South Jersey Democratic machine. He was touted as a 2025 gubernatorial candidate. There are many governors around the country who wish they had as much power as Stephen Sweeney, and a no name truck driver completely destroyed him
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lfromnj
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« Reply #758 on: November 04, 2021, 02:32:36 PM »



Wonderful news, Sweeney will steal the election .

Please do Purple heart
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Horus
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« Reply #759 on: November 04, 2021, 02:41:15 PM »



Wonderful news, Sweeney will steal the election .

Please do Purple heart

Sweeney is a northeast corridor thug in the same mold as Trump, Cuomo and basically anyone who represented Staten Island ever. He will never concede. Corrupt to the core.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #760 on: November 04, 2021, 02:43:42 PM »

Sweeney losing with the Dems only losing a net of 1 in the state senate is pretty good news.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #761 on: November 04, 2021, 03:52:26 PM »

Murphy now up +1.8%

Murphy (D) 1,254,349 (50.5%)
Ciattarelli (R) 1,210,068 (48.7%)

44,281 vote lead

Depending on what's out, if this ends up at +3/+4, it won't be wildly out of touch with the final polls which averaged like +7. And unfortunately for all of us, Trafalgar will be very right.
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Badger
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« Reply #762 on: November 04, 2021, 04:42:05 PM »
« Edited: November 04, 2021, 04:49:36 PM by Badger »

I love how everyone from all sides of politics is just dunking on Sweeney.

Machine politics is a cancer on democracy and needs to die a painful death.

Sweeney stood upto the unions and they spent 5 million against him. Hardly a standard of machines



RIP HERO Purple heart
It's fun to meme about Sweeney's defeat, but unironically, I do feel his defeat is bad news for NJ, on net.
I worry about big spending taking over the state government if he leaves the scene.

I wouldn't be surprised if Sweeney's loss leads Murphy/legislative Dems to go all-in on an ambitious agenda and causes big backlash against them in 2023 and 2025.

Back in 1991, Dem Governor Florio (who came in with a trifecta) instituted a massive tax increase that resulted in the GOP winning legislative supermajorities.
Yeah, it's good for Ds to have brakes, like Sweeney, there. Either he's a check on the most unpopular things that Ds, drunk on hubris, might want to pass, or the electorate might feel like they have to elect a Republican to provide that check.
Murphy and other Dems don't know how good they have it.

 Murphy's policies are actually quite popular. It's only because he succeeded with a progress of agenda that he likely succeeded rather than being labeled as a do nothing as Biden is, I hate to say somewhat accurately, I'll be at 1st I'll be at for Joe and Kristen, being labeled.

Let's face it, these policies such as a $15 minimum wage, marijuana legalization, and high income tax increases are vastly more politically popular than the sh**t Jack what's his face was pushing. Murphy almost lost because of because of a combination of national trends, the lingering covid shut down, and one of the stupidest and most harmful gaffses a politician has made in recent memory just before an election.
Well, there are definitely things to Murphy's program there were quite popular. But NJ voters didn't seem to give him credit for them very much (in part because he didn't seem to campaign on them as much) and I'm skeptical that they positively love taxes.

If Murphy and the D trifecta overreach on the tax issue it could absolutely give Rs gains in the state legislature. 49 states (including NJ) require balanced budgets. If Murphy has big spending plans, he is likely to have to raise taxes, and if the increases in expenditure are high enough, then the tax increases are going to have to go up accordingly. Either that or they put in a lot of fees, which is essentially a tax by another name, and might still annoy the public.

NJ has high quality-of-life, but that doesn't necessarily mean people are going to accept ever-increasing tax increases to fund higher government expenditures aimed at increasing that. The median voter is probably significantly influenced by the tax issue even if they might not vote on that basis most of the time anymore for the time being. It is that tendency in the state Sweeney represented and thus his defeat could end quite badly for Ds in the long run, even if it sounds all nice and dandy in the short term.

 I will Grant you that high income tax increases are quite popular in theory, they  Is can be effectively spun by opponents contrary to reason and basic arithmetic, But quite effectively in terms of garnering votes.

The problem is republicans are very effective at convincing Joe  Is and Jane middle class that part of their ever annoying tax burden somehow resulted It's even in part from raising taxes on multimillionaires.  "Murphy raised taxes on New Jersey voters? Hey! I hate taxes too! How dare he raise my taxes!"  Meanwhile, over in realityville the fact is Murphy only raised taxes on people earning  20 times that guy's income, but Many if not most voters don't follow politics or state taxation that closely. Keep in mind, these are the same voters who if asked specifically whether or not to Raise taxes on those individuals earning 20 times their income just like Murphy did would overwhelmingly say not just yes, but hell yes.

This is why Murphy's gaff was so incredibly damaging.It practically wrote itself as If an attack he had somehow raised taxes on most, or even many new jersey Voters.
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Meatball Ron
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« Reply #763 on: November 04, 2021, 05:08:37 PM »

Do we have results by congressional district here?

Assuming Ciattarelli won NJ-07, but curious who won NJ-05/NJ-11, and also curious as to Ciattarelli's margin of victory in NJ-02/NJ-03
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #764 on: November 04, 2021, 05:17:51 PM »

Do we have results by congressional district here?

Assuming Ciattarelli won NJ-07, but curious who won NJ-05/NJ-11, and also curious as to Ciattarelli's margin of victory in NJ-02/NJ-03

I would think Jack won NJ-05 and NJ-11 - he only lost Bergen by 5 and carried Morris by double digits.
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BigSerg
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« Reply #765 on: November 04, 2021, 05:20:25 PM »

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #766 on: November 04, 2021, 05:39:11 PM »

Murphy's lead is literally nearly 2% with Dem counties still <90%. Is he for real?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #767 on: November 04, 2021, 06:32:01 PM »

Murphy now up +1.9%

Murphy (D) 1,259,517 (50.5%)
Ciattarelli (R) 1,211,949 (48.6%)

~89% in

Murphy with 47,588 lead
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« Reply #768 on: November 04, 2021, 06:45:39 PM »

Murphy now up +1.9%

Murphy (D) 1,259,517 (50.5%)
Ciattarelli (R) 1,211,949 (48.6%)

~89% in

Murphy with 47,588 lead
The Trafalgar Poll had Murphy leading by 4.2 Percentage Points. The biggest basket of Votes will come from Essex County.

If you look at the NYT NJ everything else is basically in.

So Murphy could end up winning by the same margin Youngkin is in VA.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #769 on: November 04, 2021, 07:11:02 PM »

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pWm-E6k-nsFNQZU8oJpYxcN1iVuv2VpA1d0A_03rz1U/edit#gid=1371359546

We're not done counting yet, but it's safe to say the margin won't change too much.
I input my county-only results.

1) Not surprisingly, the highest turnout came from red counties. Their turnout mostly ranged from 59-66% of 2020 turnout. Some of the most important blue counties' turnouts were below 50% of 2020 turnout.

2) Cittarelli improved upon Trump's margin in almost every county by double digits except Hudson county, where margin roughly stayed the same. It is one of the counties Trump made significant inroad in 2020. You'd have thought Cittarelli could input more damage to it. Nope. Truly odd anomaly.

Many Republicans would have voted more if they knew it was going to be this close. Republicans that sat out this election thinking Murphy had it in the bag is going to be banging their feet.

For those interested, I have my bluest and reddest cities in 2020 in "Total" tab, which is the leftmost tab. The bluest city was East Orange City and reddest city was Lakewood.  Smile

Nice!

Interesting to see no swing in Hudson County between '20 and '21 (Not sure how many votes are still out there??? ). 

So were Working-Class Latino swings from '20 > '21 a non-issue and really this was more of the "Suburban Moms" vote?
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« Reply #770 on: November 04, 2021, 07:14:48 PM »


The margin is widening as expected. There's no grounds for a recount. Why is he doing this?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #771 on: November 04, 2021, 07:17:23 PM »


The margin is widening as expected. There's no grounds for a recount. Why is he doing this?

He learned it from Trump..... Wink
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« Reply #772 on: November 04, 2021, 07:31:13 PM »

NBC still claims that there are 300K left to count.

NBC + Chuck Todd = Bonaheaded Stupid as always.
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Horus
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« Reply #773 on: November 04, 2021, 07:46:19 PM »


The margin is widening as expected. There's no grounds for a recount. Why is he doing this?

Republicans no longer concede. Conceding defeat is considered weak. Instead the proper course of action is throw a tantrum and yell fraud until the next election.

Unless they win, in which case the vote was obviously free and fair.
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Asta
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« Reply #774 on: November 04, 2021, 07:57:29 PM »

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pWm-E6k-nsFNQZU8oJpYxcN1iVuv2VpA1d0A_03rz1U/edit#gid=1371359546

We're not done counting yet, but it's safe to say the margin won't change too much.
I input my county-only results.

1) Not surprisingly, the highest turnout came from red counties. Their turnout mostly ranged from 59-66% of 2020 turnout. Some of the most important blue counties' turnouts were below 50% of 2020 turnout.

2) Cittarelli improved upon Trump's margin in almost every county by double digits except Hudson county, where margin roughly stayed the same. It is one of the counties Trump made significant inroad in 2020. You'd have thought Cittarelli could input more damage to it. Nope. Truly odd anomaly.

Many Republicans would have voted more if they knew it was going to be this close. Republicans that sat out this election thinking Murphy had it in the bag is going to be banging their feet.

For those interested, I have my bluest and reddest cities in 2020 in "Total" tab, which is the leftmost tab. The bluest city was East Orange City and reddest city was Lakewood.  Smile

Nice!

Interesting to see no swing in Hudson County between '20 and '21 (Not sure how many votes are still out there??? ). 

So were Working-Class Latino swings from '20 > '21 a non-issue and really this was more of the "Suburban Moms" vote?

Suburban mom and moderates backlash against Murphy's progressive agenda were definitely factors. There is no town by town result yet and we probably won't have it for a while, if at all. I'd like to see cities like Perth Amboy to see Latino swings.
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