NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1389579838793650176

[wbrocks67]

Why Monmouth didn't test Murphy just hypothetically against all the Rs runnning right now is beyond me..

[wbrocks67]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/governor/ciattarelli-picks-hugin-for-gop-state-chairman/

Also FWIW, pharmaceutical CEO and former Senate candidate Bob Hugin will be the new NJ GOP chair.

The same Bob Hugin who lost double digits to Bob Menendez? It was a dem year but Menendnez was wounded. Yikes.

[wbrocks67]

Depends on how bad he thought it would be, I guess.

[wbrocks67]

Did we ever get word on what Dem turnout was like on primary day?

[wbrocks67]

Where is Ciatarelli? He's been MIA for months now

[wbrocks67]

Where is Ciatarelli? He's been MIA for months now

Meanwhile, Murphy going viral with this from yesterday. It's not even like there is a GOV campaign going on lol.

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1422999259876560896

[wbrocks67]

Where is Ciatarelli? He's been MIA for months now

The Allen pick is getting some traction but I’ve literally heard from her more times than from him, and it’s been two days.

I mean like... is he even campaigning or doing anything? It's like he's not even trying lol

[wbrocks67]

Where is Ciatarelli? He's been MIA for months now

The Allen pick is getting some traction but I’ve literally heard from her more times than from him, and it’s been two days.

I mean like... is he even campaigning or doing anything? It's like he's not even trying lol

No, I don't think so. He knows he is going to lose barring Murphy imploding, which he could do, since he is going on vacation to Italy soon; that could turn voters off because they will say that he is a hypocrite telling us working Jerseyans to stay home and lock down and his rich self can go on vacation to his Italian villa

Chris Christie has NOT endorsed Jack; Christie is still seen as the face of the NJGOP, he put the party in debt; he tainted the party, but he is more well-liked than Christie Todd "Whitless" as the base calls her, they consider her a RINO because she is too moderate.....

Ciattarelli knows he is going to lose, he probably runs for a Congressional seat in 2022 or 2024, while Bob Hugin may run in 2025, or run for Senate again in 2024

He is not saying that.

[wbrocks67]

At this point in 2017, the polls showed Murphy leading against Guadagno by 25-30 and he won by 14. It could close up slightly, though I certainly don't expect Murphy to lose.

I mean, that was a lot of high undecideds + low name recog too. The polls in 2017 actually nailed the race in NJ, from September on, so given that we're relatively close, this one seems like a good barometer.

Monmouth also nailed the race on October 3, 2017 too (the only time they polled it)

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/CBSPhilly/status/1431422469135638533

[wbrocks67]

Ciatarelli is resorting to flying banners over the Jersey Shore that claim Murphy has said he wants to turn Jersey into California.

If that's the best he's got... woof

[wbrocks67]

Monmouth has Murphy's job approval at 52-38 (+14) and his COVID response at 62-27 (+35)

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_NJ_092321/

[wbrocks67]

Just returned my mail ballot for Murphy.  

I'll take a bit of contrarian view and say Ciatarelli will make it close. Murphy will win by 4-6%.
Murphy's 52-38 approval rating looks decent but when you consider the other 10% that are undecided, my guess is that they'll swing for Ciatarelli.

Democrats seem to let their guard down after showing up in previous elections. Republicans' red wave always seems to dwarf Democrats' blue wave and unless I see otherwise, I'll always believe Republicans will have the edge in gubernatorial and congressional elections in neutral environment.

The undecideds tend to be more nonwhite, female, and younger so idk about that.

[wbrocks67]

Murphy’s entire campaign is built around appealing to white liberals, which makes no sense. This may wind up being one of the worst incumbent campaigns in state history. Still think he wins but am now expecting single digits.

Isn't that the base of Murphy's appeal? White liberals in Red Bank/Middletown/Jersey City/Camden, etc.

Ciattarelli's appeal is to the typical suburban Republican base in Monmouth/Salem/Morris/Bergen, but a lot of them are Matthew Dowd-types turning blue because of Trumpism.

No, this is not how a New Jersey election works. The state is split between white suburban or rural Republicans and black urban Democrats with not many swing votes. This is especially true now that white Delaware Bay voters have swung hard to the Republicans.

Not sure where your list of towns is coming from. There are few liberals in Middletown (which Murphy lost despite, or possibly because of, his partial residency) and few whites period in Camden or Jersey City, though possibly growing in the latter (which has also become marginally more conservative). Red Bank is fairly white and voted for Murphy, but is also very small. Montclair is a better example, probably the archetype — but that's still just one mid-sized town. There are pockets of liberal whites, but they aren't a swing constituency.

A winning candidate in a competitive race needs to be going after Asian and Hispanic votes; that's how Christie won in 2009. Outside of those voters, the state is Mississippi. The tilt toward Democrats has been due to the growing Hispanic populations in the cities and Asian populations in the suburbs along with white flight to the South, especially Florida.

Going after white liberals by attacking Trump is possibly Murphy's attempt to position himself for 2024, but it doesn't do anything to help him in 2021 and risks allowing Ciattarelli to get embarrassingly close.

This is... not true at all. Have you ever been to New Jersey?

Guadagno only won Whites by 8% in 2017.

[wbrocks67]

I was raised in New Jersey and have consulted for successful campaigns in both parties there. The only thing mildly inaccurate about my post was the Mississippi comparison, since Mississippi has no white moderates, let alone liberals. But the point was still obviously correct — Phil Murphy is wasting time going after the sort of socially-liberal suburban whites who still obsess over Trump.

Nearly every major competitive campaign in the state today employs a strategy that takes most white and all black voters for granted and focuses on the middle (see 2009) — the only way things vary are in a non-competitive landslide like the anti-Trump, anti-Christie wave the state saw in 2017–18 (where a significant minority of conservative whites voted Democratic) or Christie's 2013 win (where he picked up a fair number of black voters).

Murphy's strategy is betting on a similar statewide environment, and it clearly isn't working. At this point in 2017, for comparison, Guadagno had basically stopped fundraising. Most people I've talked to say this is a worse incumbent campaign than Corzine's (who had the environment more strongly against him) and possibly the worst ever. (Keep in mind this is a low bar; incumbents have only been running since 1947 and only a few have lost.) That doesn't mean he'll lose, obviously. I think he'll survive pretty comfortably despite himself.

I also probably should have used "progressive"; forgot this site uses idiosyncratic (though more accurate, to its credit) ideological terms, but everyone in the real world still calls extreme Democrats liberals.

How is Murphy running a bad campaign?

Yeah, if anything Murphy has been running a pretty good campaign considering the history of Democratic incumbents in this state.

Ciatarelli meanwhile is literally not even campaigning and is virtually invisible.

[wbrocks67]

Murphy’s entire campaign is built around appealing to white liberals, which makes no sense. This may wind up being one of the worst incumbent campaigns in state history. Still think he wins but am now expecting single digits.

Isn't that the base of Murphy's appeal? White liberals in Red Bank/Middletown/Jersey City/Camden, etc.

Ciattarelli's appeal is to the typical suburban Republican base in Monmouth/Salem/Morris/Bergen, but a lot of them are Matthew Dowd-types turning blue because of Trumpism.

No, this is not how a New Jersey election works. The state is split between white suburban or rural Republicans and black urban Democrats with not many swing votes. This is especially true now that white Delaware Bay voters have swung hard to the Republicans.

Not sure where your list of towns is coming from. There are few liberals in Middletown (which Murphy lost despite, or possibly because of, his partial residency) and few whites period in Camden or Jersey City, though possibly growing in the latter (which has also become marginally more conservative). Red Bank is fairly white and voted for Murphy, but is also very small. Montclair is a better example, probably the archetype — but that's still just one mid-sized town. There are pockets of liberal whites, but they aren't a swing constituency.

A winning candidate in a competitive race needs to be going after Asian and Hispanic votes; that's how Christie won in 2009. Outside of those voters, the state is Mississippi. The tilt toward Democrats has been due to the growing Hispanic populations in the cities and Asian populations in the suburbs along with white flight to the South, especially Florida.

Going after white liberals by attacking Trump is possibly Murphy's attempt to position himself for 2024, but it doesn't do anything to help him in 2021 and risks allowing Ciattarelli to get embarrassingly close.

This is painfully inaccurate

How would you describe New Jersey politics?

The state is one big suburb. Yes, there are more conservative whites and more liberal whites, but I'd say most of the NJ ~base~ is very moderate, and Murphy has succeeded IMO of bringing a "moderate" presentation to a lot of "liberal" policies.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/mikememoli/status/1445743533005017093

[wbrocks67]

Was reading about the LT-GOV debate last night, and Ciatarelli refused to answer a question last week about white privilege? And there were posters saying he did better than Murphy, when he wouldn't even answer simple questions?

Diane Allen actually had a surprisingly good answer to the question. Ciatarelli failed to do so, apparently

[wbrocks67]

This is something people need to keep in mind, aside from NJ-Sen 2018 (which was a pretty unique circumstance), Republicans tend to overperform polling in New Jersey. Tom Kean was not expected to do as well as he did last November, and Republicans in NJ-05 and NJ-11 did much better than expected even as no-name candidates against popular incumbents.

New Jersey is certainly a largely local issues driven state and college-educated voters tend to split their votes. Think about Vermont, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire. All three voted for Joe Biden by health margins, but VT and NH voted for Republican governors by large margins, and MA reelected a Republican governor by a 2-1 margin three years ago.

Murphy not only refuses to back down from his millionaires tax, he's campaigning on it while the state is in its absolute worst economic condition in history. Regardless if you're for or against such a tax, you have to admit implementing it on a statewide level in any state is ridiculous. As opposed to a country, you can easily move from one state to another as a millionaire. Nothing can stop them from packing their bags and moving to Pennsylvania or head south (like me), and Murphy doesn't seem to get that.

Ciattarelli isn't perfect (Hugin would've made a much stronger GOV candidate especially during COVID) but I think people are severely underestimating Jack's chances.

We've been over this though - house candidates got a lift from nontraditional Trump voters coming out to vote in 2020.

If anything, I think people are overestimating Jack's chances, as small as they are. He's been running a terrible campaign trying to be a MAGA hero but also a "moderate" hero. Literally ads running of him at headlining a Stop the Steal rally.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1447957174324445190

[wbrocks67]

Murphy’s entire campaign is built around appealing to white liberals, which makes no sense. This may wind up being one of the worst incumbent campaigns in state history. Still think he wins but am now expecting single digits.

Isn't that the base of Murphy's appeal? White liberals in Red Bank/Middletown/Jersey City/Camden, etc.

Ciattarelli's appeal is to the typical suburban Republican base in Monmouth/Salem/Morris/Bergen, but a lot of them are Matthew Dowd-types turning blue because of Trumpism.

No, this is not how a New Jersey election works. The state is split between white suburban or rural Republicans and black urban Democrats with not many swing votes. This is especially true now that white Delaware Bay voters have swung hard to the Republicans.

Not sure where your list of towns is coming from. There are few liberals in Middletown (which Murphy lost despite, or possibly because of, his partial residency) and few whites period in Camden or Jersey City, though possibly growing in the latter (which has also become marginally more conservative). Red Bank is fairly white and voted for Murphy, but is also very small. Montclair is a better example, probably the archetype — but that's still just one mid-sized town. There are pockets of liberal whites, but they aren't a swing constituency.

A winning candidate in a competitive race needs to be going after Asian and Hispanic votes; that's how Christie won in 2009. Outside of those voters, the state is Mississippi. The tilt toward Democrats has been due to the growing Hispanic populations in the cities and Asian populations in the suburbs along with white flight to the South, especially Florida.

Going after white liberals by attacking Trump is possibly Murphy's attempt to position himself for 2024, but it doesn't do anything to help him in 2021 and risks allowing Ciattarelli to get embarrassingly close.

The state has no swing voters? Christie won 1/3 of democratic voters, 60% of moderates and 70% of white voters back in 2013.

He won pretty much every meaningful category except black voters and under 50k income group. He was somewhat like NJ's Charlie Baker back in the day.

I'll give you that Ciatarelli will make it probably close, but his task is harder than in Christie's era, because NJ whites have gotten more left, whereas non-whites have become more right-leaning. And since whites are the ones that consistently turn out, Ciatarelli will be a serious underdog. Hispanic and Asian voters make up only around 13-15% of voters. They won't be the key component that tilts the scale. It will always begin an end with courting white voters.

what's your idea of close? lol

[wbrocks67]

I don't see how gaining 7k more Rs in the same period means Rs will perform better in a neutral setting, after Dems just gained over 200k+ more from 2016-2020.

I don't see how Ciatarelli can make it pretty close either, unless you count Murphy +10 as "pretty close"

[wbrocks67]

I don't see how gaining 7k more Rs in the same period means Rs will perform better in a neutral setting, after Dems just gained over 200k+ more from 2016-2020.

I don't see how Ciatarelli can make it pretty close either, unless you count Murphy +10 as "pretty close"

Dems gained 220k over Republicans yet Biden won NJ with roughly the same margin that Clinton did.

It's not so much that 7k is a lot. It's more of a symbol of Republicans' wave.
In a neutral setting, I'd imagine that Dems would register something like 1.2-1.5 more voters than Republicans in NJ. The fact that Republicans are outpacing Democrats in a blue state means Republicans have the enthusiasm.

I think Murphy will end up winning by 4-5 points instead of 10, when considering that Murphy was lucky enough to run in a year in which voters hated Christie, and that Independents will probably swing back more Republican in a red wave year.

Or it's possible that Dems just slacked on registering this year, I don't think a 7k margin is really noticeable in the grand scheme of things when we're talking "enthusiasm".

Though you're suggestion that Murphy only wins by 4-5 is.... interesting. But seems very unlikely

[wbrocks67]

I think Murphy will end up winning by 4-5 points instead of 10, when considering that Murphy was lucky enough to run in a year in which voters hated Christie, and that Independents will probably swing back more Republican in a red wave year.

Honestly, it's a little surprising that Guadagno only lost by 14 considering she had to deal with a president and an outgoing governor who were both extremely unpopular.

Guadagno seemed somewhat Moderate though - I remember there were a few people I know who usually vote D but voted for her. Ciatarelli is not coming off that way, however.