NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[Calthrina950]

Here's my prediction as of now:

Governor Phillip D. Murphy / Lt. Governor Shelia Oliver (D) - 1,214,900 votes, 55.86%
Former Rep. Jack M. Ciattarelli / TBD (R) - 960,100 votes, 44.14%

I know that Somerset County has traditionally been a Republican stronghold in downballot races-and was a Republican stronghold at the presidential level prior to 2008-but I'm not sure if it will go Republican this year. Biden won it with more than 60% of the vote, and presidential polarization has begun to heavily affect downballot races now. However, I do see Ciattarelli winning Morris County, which Biden only won by 4% and which still has a substantial number of moderate R-leaning voters.

[Calthrina950]

Murphy’s entire campaign is built around appealing to white liberals, which makes no sense. This may wind up being one of the worst incumbent campaigns in state history. Still think he wins but am now expecting single digits.

Isn't that the base of Murphy's appeal? White liberals in Red Bank/Middletown/Jersey City/Camden, etc.

Ciattarelli's appeal is to the typical suburban Republican base in Monmouth/Salem/Morris/Bergen, but a lot of them are Matthew Dowd-types turning blue because of Trumpism.

No, this is not how a New Jersey election works. The state is split between white suburban or rural Republicans and black urban Democrats with not many swing votes. This is especially true now that white Delaware Bay voters have swung hard to the Republicans.

Not sure where your list of towns is coming from. There are few liberals in Middletown (which Murphy lost despite, or possibly because of, his partial residency) and few whites period in Camden or Jersey City, though possibly growing in the latter (which has also become marginally more conservative). Red Bank is fairly white and voted for Murphy, but is also very small. Montclair is a better example, probably the archetype — but that's still just one mid-sized town. There are pockets of liberal whites, but they aren't a swing constituency.

A winning candidate in a competitive race needs to be going after Asian and Hispanic votes; that's how Christie won in 2009. Outside of those voters, the state is Mississippi. The tilt toward Democrats has been due to the growing Hispanic populations in the cities and Asian populations in the suburbs along with white flight to the South, especially Florida.

Going after white liberals by attacking Trump is possibly Murphy's attempt to position himself for 2024, but it doesn't do anything to help him in 2021 and risks allowing Ciattarelli to get embarrassingly close.

This is painfully inaccurate

How would you describe New Jersey politics?

[Calthrina950]

80% of the vote in and Tortellini still leads by a point. Still suburban counties where he is heavily favored left to count anywhere from 20% of the vote in Cumberland to 99% of the vote in Salem. He's now leading in Passaic with 60% of the vote in. Anyone else see where Murphy can make it up? Because I don't.

I'm not sure of the details, but I still have a feeling that Murphy will narrowly hold on. However, a Ciattarelli victory is very much a possibility at this point, and he's outperforming his polls. It's clear to me that educational issues and coronavirus pandemic policies greatly hurt both Murphy and McAuliffe. And of course, this is a reflection on President Biden.

[Calthrina950]

You know who should really be sweating tonight? Gretchen Whitmer.

There is no other explanation for the closeness of these results besides Murphy's strict Covid policies. He was a generic D Democrat and most of his policies didn't get people too angry, and Ciatarelli ran a competent but uninspired campaign.

It's almost like vaccinated people aren't particularly happy about having restrictions forced on them when they did the right thing months ago.

The worst of this was before the vaccines rolled out - keeping indoor dining shut indefinitely long after the crisis abated, for instance - but yeah, people are done with the fact that there doesn't seem to be an offramp here.

The crazy part is that a lot of Dems seem to WANT the pandemic to last forever. Getting vaccinated 10 times, triple masking, massively overestimating the risk of hospitalization/death, some even still refusing to go out and eat indoors or anything. It all looks hypochondriac and frankly insane to a lot of people. This thing isn't the Black Death. It sucks, but it mostly kills very old and very fat people, to be brutally honest. I get it's frustrating that a lot of loons still won't get vaxxed which would help speed up the process but smugly mocking them probably isn't helping. It just is nuts that this has become such a politicized, polarized culture war issue akin to abortion or something on both sides with no end in sight. America has gone off the deep end.

I agree with most of this, but what’s wrong with booster shots? People get flu shots every year, what’s the difference?

There's nothing wrong with them and I'd recommend old and vulnerable people get them, but the boosters are being tied to a never-ending pandemic mitigation policy from the federal government (and many state ones too) and that is rubbing people the wrong way. One of the best things Biden could do to immediately better his image is declare the pandemic over and once again emphasize that the vaccines are available and free for anyone who wants them.

I fully agree. The pandemic is what prevented Trump from winning reelection last year, but now, it-or rather the response to it-is a millstone around Biden's neck. I'm still very disappointed with how quickly Biden acquiesced with the CDC's renewed mask guidance, which still shows no signs of changing after over three months. The Administration's coronavirus mitigation policies are inconsistent, and there doesn't seem to be a firm path out. I feel that backlash to coronavirus policies fueled the Republican victories tonight.

[Calthrina950]

Murphy did all the supposedly super popular progressive stuff (legalized marijuana, raised taxes on the rich, $15 minimum wage, etc.) and it doesn't seem to have helped at all. Voters do not vote on policy; they vote on vibes. Seems bad for the long-term viability of democracy, IMO.

These policies are popular, but cultural issues and perceptions seem to predominate in the minds of voters, and the Democrats have been unable to effectively "sell" their policy agenda to the public. Moreover, that agenda has in many respects been distorted.

[Calthrina950]

These state races don't always indicate much about federal ones. There are plenty of people who will vote one way at the state level but not the same at the federal level. Kentucky and Louisiana are a good example.

True (to an extent), but we cannot seriously say that next year will be a favorable midterm for Democrats, given what we've seen. Biden's approval ratings are poor, and undoubtedly were the most significant factor underlying these results.

[Calthrina950]

Edward Durr will be the state legislator of fiscal conservatism par excellence. My man raised $10k and spent a few dozen bucks on flyers and doughnuts.

His victory certainly is astonishing, though not unprecedented. There have been instances before of people with few or no resources running for political office and winning.

[Calthrina950]

Results by congressional district: https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/ciattarelli-won-all-five-of-new-jerseys-competitive-congressional-districts/

Ciattarelli won NJ-02, NJ-03, NJ-04, NJ-05, NJ-07 and NJ-11 and only lost NJ-06 by 4 points. The Hudson County-based 8th was the only district where Murphy did better than Biden.

So Ciattarelli and Murphy tied in terms of congressional districts? And Ciattarelli won one more county (11) then Murphy did (10). Kim, Gottheimer, Malinowski, and Sherill all sit in districts won by Ciattarelli.