NJ-GOV 2021 megathread (user search)
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March 28, 2024, 07:27:16 AM
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  NJ-GOV 2021 megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: NJ-GOV 2021 megathread  (Read 49481 times)
Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,981
United States


« on: May 25, 2020, 09:37:02 PM »
« edited: May 25, 2020, 09:41:56 PM by Roll Roons »

Downballot, New Jersey is really not as solidly Democratic as people seem to think it is. Guadagno still got 42% despite Christie's approval being in the teens, and the congressional delegation was evenly split as recently as 2016. Last November, Republicans managed to hold all their legislative seats and even make net gains despite Trump's toxicity in the state. And this was after Murphy campaigned for Bramnick and Munoz's opponents in a Clinton +10 district! The NJGOP is in much better shape than their counterparts in many other blue states (CA, NY, OR, MA, VA), and is less likely to nominate a wacko who turns off suburban voters. This race is very much worth watching in a Biden midterm.
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,981
United States


« Reply #1 on: May 26, 2020, 10:47:42 AM »

JVD, if he even ran for governor / Norcross's support or not, isn't going to win statewide. All the Dems would have to do is point out that he switched parties to vote against impeachment of Trump. Look how well a similar election worked out for someone in a similar situation (who was a Republican his whole life).

Wow. The Democrat got over 60 in Ocean, Morris and Sussex, over 65 in Monmouth and Hunterdon, and over 70 in Warren. What the actual f**k. 

But to be fair, Nixon was still president in 1973, and Watergate was brewing. People's political memories are short, and they'll care less about Trump if he's out of office.
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,981
United States


« Reply #2 on: December 09, 2020, 11:12:23 AM »

https://newjerseyglobe.com/governor/bramnick-wont-run-for-governor/

Bramnick out of the governor's race, and will most likely run for reelection to the Assembly.
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,981
United States


« Reply #3 on: December 14, 2020, 05:53:36 PM »

https://newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/cardinale-still-intends-to-seek-re-election/

Republican State Senator Gerald Cardinale of Bergen County will run for reelection next year at the age of 87. I don't know how people do it.
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,981
United States


« Reply #4 on: December 16, 2020, 06:53:08 PM »


This. Lean D, until I see the NJGOP field a good candidate.

No one can say Ciattarelli's name.

Murphy 53
Ciattarelli 45

Murphy 51
Steinhardt 46

Murphy 55
Singh 44

2025 or 2029 will be the NJGOP's year.

The only one who can beat Murphy is Shaun Golden or Joe Piscopo.

It's Chitt-a-relli. It's not *that* hard to pronounce.


I'll be honest, I live in Los Angeles, I see hard names all the time, I had no ing idea how to say it. Italian right?

Yeah, it's Italian. I think this is more an example of me being familiar with Italian names than anything, haha.

Luckily for Ciattarelli, this is one of the last states that will be a problem.
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,981
United States


« Reply #5 on: January 11, 2021, 07:08:56 PM »

https://newjerseyglobe.com/campaigns/steinhardt-drops-out-of-gop-gubernatorial-race/

Former State GOP Chair Doug Steinhardt is out. He was running as a MAGA candidate,  and Trumpism REALLY does not play well in this state. Jack Ciattarelli is now the strong favorite for the GOP nomination.

He released this ad on the day of the Capitol riot, attacking Ciattarelli for not supporting Trump in 2016:
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,981
United States


« Reply #6 on: February 04, 2021, 12:50:27 PM »

Sen. Tom Kean Jr. will not run for reelection to his LD-21 district, making it most likely that he will challenge Malinowski again in 2022......

https://newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/kean-2021-re-elect/

Assemblyman Jon Bramnick will run for the state Senate seat, making a leadership vacuum in the Assembly GOP....

This district was once a central Jersey affluent Republican stronghold to a swing district, because of Christie and Trump.


It would be hilarious if Kean announces a run against Malinowski only for the Redistricting Commission to put his hometown (Westfield) in Mikie Sherill's district (which I've heard is a possibility)

He's got a spot on the commission, so I doubt it.
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,981
United States


« Reply #7 on: May 05, 2021, 12:27:22 PM »
« Edited: May 05, 2021, 12:48:06 PM by Roll Roons »

His reelect numbers are 48 in favor vs 43 against. It should also be noted that Monmouth had JVD trailing by 5, but he won by 6. I know it's just one district, but I'd take it with a slight grain of salt.

That said, Murphy is still favored, and my guess he wins by 12-15.

Republicans have a very solid floor in this state of around 41-42%.
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,981
United States


« Reply #8 on: June 08, 2021, 09:00:52 PM »
« Edited: June 08, 2021, 09:15:57 PM by Roll Roons »

Jack also gets AP call:
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,981
United States


« Reply #9 on: June 08, 2021, 09:13:58 PM »

Also New Jersey vote counting last year was New York-level bad. Glad they seem to have gotten it together now.
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,981
United States


« Reply #10 on: June 11, 2021, 10:04:56 AM »

https://newjerseyglobe.com/governor/ciattarelli-picks-hugin-for-gop-state-chairman/

Also FWIW, pharmaceutical CEO and former Senate candidate Bob Hugin will be the new NJ GOP chair.
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,981
United States


« Reply #11 on: June 11, 2021, 04:08:51 PM »
« Edited: June 11, 2021, 09:05:40 PM by Roll Roons »

Might as well put out my thoughts about State Senate races.

Safe R:
LD1 (Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland)
LD9 (Atlantic, Burlington, Ocean)
LD10 (Ocean)
LD12 (Burlington, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean)
LD13 (Monmouth)
LD23 (Hunterdon, Somerset, Warren)
LD24 (Morris, Sussex, Warren)
LD26 (Essex, Morris, Passaic)
LD30 (Monmouth, Ocean)
LD40 (Bergen, Essex, Morris, Passaic)


Likely R:
LD25 (Morris, Somerset). Incumbent Senator Tony Bucco (R) was appointed to this seat in 2019 after his father, Senator Anthony Bucco, died in office. The younger Bucco won a special election by 9 points even as Biden carried the district by a similar margin. This district is much more Republican downballot, so he should be fine.
LD39 (Bergen, Passaic). Long-serving Senator Gerry Cardinale (R) died in February, and was replaced by then-Assemblywoman Holly Schepisi, a rising star in the NJ GOP. Biden won this district narrowly, but Schepisi is a proven vote-getter and it is more Republican downballot.

Lean R:
LD21 (Morris, Somerset, Union). Although Trump is very unpopular in this wealthy Romney-Clinton-Biden suburban district, it is still willing to vote for moderate Republicans at the state level. Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. is retiring and will probably run for Congress again, so Assembly Minority Leader Jon Bramnick (R) will be running to replace him. His Democratic opponent will be Roselle Park mayor Joe Signorello (D), who is certainly a credible candidate. But Jon is a proven vote-getter with a long record of winning in the district, and managed to survive even in the Trump era. He should be considered a favorite for now.

Tossup:
LD2 (Atlantic). Senator Chris Brown (R) is retiring in this Atlantic City-based district, which has long been one of the most competitive in the state. It's the battle of Italians named Vince, as Assemblyman Vince Mazzeo (D) is running against former Assemblyman Vince Polistina (R). Should be a close and exciting race.
LD8 (Atlantic, Burlington, Camden). This South Jersey Clinton-Biden district has not actually elected a Democrat since the 1970s. Senator Dawn Addiego (D) had been continuously reelected as a Republican, but switched parties in January 2019. Assemblywoman Jean Stanfield (R), who served for over 16 years as Burlington County Sheriff, is taking her on. Both women have long histories in this area, and the race will be very competitive.

Lean D:
LD11 (Monmouth). Senator Vin Gopal (D), the youngest member of the Senate, was first elected in 2017, beating Senator Jen Beck (R) in an upset. Gopal is considered a rising star, and will face businesswoman Lori Annetta (R). This is still a fairly competitive district, and Gopal, though favored, can't quite rest easy.
LD16 (Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset). Jack Ciattarelli once represented this district in the State Assembly. It used to be pretty Republican, but has shifted hard left in recent years, particularly after Princeton was added in 2011. But it is not totally averse to electing Republicans, as retiring Senator Kip Bateman (R) won in 2017. Bateman is retiring after having had heart surgery, so Assemblyman Andrew Zwicker (D) is seeking a promotion against former Congressman Mike Pappas (R). Zwicker should be considered somewhat favored, but he can't take it for granted. Especially if Jack happens to provide a favorite son boost.

Likely D:
LD3 (Cumberland, Gloucester, Salem). This working class South Jersey district is the only Trump district held by a Democrat in the state. That Democrat happens to be Senate President Steve Sweeney, a very powerful man with ties to the South Jersey machine. Republicans have tried to beat him multiple times, but never really come close. He'll most likely be fine, but given that Trump won here, I wouldn't say it's completely safe.
LD38 (Bergen, Passaic). This was formerly one of the most competitive districts in the state. It has trended blue in recent years, but it is not overwhelmingly so. The Assembly members had a somewhat closer-than-expected race in 2019, so a Republican upset isn't out of the question. That said, Senator Joe Lagana (D) should still be a favorite over businessman Richard Garcia (R).

Safe D:
LD4 (Camden, Gloucester)
LD5 (Camden, Gloucester)
LD6 (Burlington, Camden)
LD7 (Burlington)
LD14 (Mercer, Middlesex)
LD15 (Hunterdon, Mercer)
LD17 (Middlesex, Somerset)
LD18 (Middlesex)
LD19 (Middlesex)
LD20 (Union)
LD22 (Middlesex, Somerset, Union)
LD27 (Essex, Morris)
LD28 (Essex)
LD29 (Essex)
LD31 (Hudson)
LD32 (Bergen, Hudson)
LD33 (Hudson)
LD34 (Essex, Passaic)
LD35 (Bergen, Passaic)
LD36 (Bergen, Passaic)
LD37 (Bergen)


Overall, I have Republicans favored in 13 races and Democrats favored in 25, with two tossups.

Frankly, Trump's loss was just about the best thing that could have happened to New Jersey Republicans. Things could have gotten really ugly if he was still president.
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,981
United States


« Reply #12 on: June 19, 2021, 04:19:18 PM »



FDU apparently coming out with a poll of the gubernatorial race on Monday.
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,981
United States


« Reply #13 on: August 18, 2021, 12:30:13 PM »

At this point in 2017, the polls showed Murphy leading against Guadagno by 25-30 and he won by 14. It could close up slightly, though I certainly don't expect Murphy to lose.
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,981
United States


« Reply #14 on: October 14, 2021, 10:02:02 AM »

I think Murphy will end up winning by 4-5 points instead of 10, when considering that Murphy was lucky enough to run in a year in which voters hated Christie, and that Independents will probably swing back more Republican in a red wave year.

Honestly, it's a little surprising that Guadagno only lost by 14 considering she had to deal with a president and an outgoing governor who were both extremely unpopular.
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,981
United States


« Reply #15 on: October 22, 2021, 10:48:41 AM »
« Edited: October 22, 2021, 10:52:35 AM by Roll Roons »

Latest Emerson poll has Murphy+4, this is not gonna be a landslide for Murphy at all.

Didn't realize we should ignore every other recent poll for an Emerson poll.

Huh There haven't even been that many recent polls. The last one was Stockton in September, which was Murphy +9. This will most likely be a single-digit race.
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,981
United States


« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2021, 08:52:58 AM »

NJ had a pretty substantial blue mirage last year - are we likely to see the same thing this year? For instance, Malinowski was leading Kean on November 3rd by double digits, but ultimately only won by 1 point.
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,981
United States


« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2021, 09:39:07 AM »

This thread is quiet compared to the virginia thread

The race itself is quiet. Ciattarelli shot himself in the foot a bit by not seizing on education like Youngkin did (he really boxed himself in by opening his argument on education with the word “sodomy,” even though it was accurate), the state is slightly more Democratic, and Murphy is an incumbent who has managed to be decently popular by the low, low standards of New Jersey.

Also the DC media/political class just doesn't care as much about this race because it's not in their backyard.
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,981
United States


« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2021, 02:44:10 PM »


Polls close at 8, but results might take a bit longer than that.
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,981
United States


« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2021, 10:38:15 PM »



So literally, let's go Brandon!
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,981
United States


« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2021, 11:05:32 PM »

OMG:


PRINCETON might have a GOP state senator and two GOP state reps. PRINCETON!!!
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,981
United States


« Reply #21 on: November 03, 2021, 08:23:38 AM »

Regardless of the final result, looks like Jack almost certainly won NJ-02, NJ-03, NJ-04, NJ-05, NJ-07, NJ-11 and possibly NJ-06.
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,981
United States


« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2021, 09:31:59 AM »
« Edited: November 03, 2021, 09:35:56 AM by Roll Roons »

GOP most likely gained 8 (!!!) Assembly seats while holding all of their own: https://newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/republicans-likely-to-pick-up-8-assembly-seats/

They've apparently picked up in LDs 2, 3, 11 and 16, which brings the balance to 44D-36R. 
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,981
United States


« Reply #23 on: November 03, 2021, 09:44:04 AM »
« Edited: November 03, 2021, 09:48:04 AM by Roll Roons »

Senate: Absolute worst case scenario for the GOP is that they break even, as they beat party switcher Dawn Addiego in LD 8.

But they'll most likely have a net gain. In addition to Sweeney, 11, 14 and 38 (D-held) and 16 (R-held) all looking very close and could conceivably go either way.
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Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,981
United States


« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2021, 11:50:04 PM »

I love how everyone from all sides of politics is just dunking on Sweeney.

Machine politics is a cancer on democracy and needs to die a painful death.

Sweeney stood upto the unions and they spent 5 million against him. Hardly a standard of machines



RIP HERO Purple heart
It's fun to meme about Sweeney's defeat, but unironically, I do feel his defeat is bad news for NJ, on net.
I worry about big spending taking over the state government if he leaves the scene.

I wouldn't be surprised if Sweeney's loss causes Murphy/legislative Dems to go all-in on an ambitious agenda and leads to big backlash against them in 2023 and 2025.

Back in 1991, Dem Governor Florio (who came in with a trifecta) instituted a massive tax increase that resulted in the GOP winning legislative supermajorities.
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