NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[wbrocks67]

The slow and painful count continues, Murphy lead now +2.8% (70,670 votes)

Murphy (D) 1,295,739 (51.0%)
Ciattarelli (R) 1,225,069 (48.2%)

Latest votes went Murphy 7,277 - Ciattarelli 4,162

Murphy up to +2.9% (73,814 votes)

Murphy (D) 1,304,954 (51.1%)
Ciattarelli (R) 1,231,140 (48.2%)

[Suburbia]

Murphy is too low key, he should have been aggressive

[Suburbia]

Jack Ciattarelli and Diane Allen will formally concede tomorrow afternoon, as it is mathematically impossible to win.

Diane Allen's career is over, she was brought out of retirement to do this adventure, is Ciattarelli's career over or does he run in 2025 or does he run for a Congressional seat in 2022 or 2024?

https://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2021/11/11/ciattarelli-plans-to-concede-in-new-jersey-governors-race-1392833

[GregTheGreat657]

Jack Ciattarelli and Diane Allen will formally concede tomorrow afternoon, as it is mathematically impossible to win.

Diane Allen's career is over, she was brought out of retirement to do this adventure, is Ciattarelli's career over or does he run in 2025 or does he run for a Congressional seat in 2022 or 2024?

https://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2021/11/11/ciattarelli-plans-to-concede-in-new-jersey-governors-race-1392833

I think Ciattarelli might run for Congress in 2022 or for the Senate in 2024

[Roll Roons]

With almost everything now counted, here's the order of counties from most to least Democratic:

1. Essex
2. Hudson
3. Mercer
4. Camden
5. Union
6. Middlesex
7. Burlington
8. Bergen
9. Somerset

<Statewide result>

10. Passaic
11. Gloucester
12. Cumberland
13. Atlantic
14. Morris
15. Monmouth
16. Hunterdon
17. Cape May
18. Salem
19. Warren
20. Sussex
21. Ocean

It seems like Somerset and Passaic will indeed be the statewide bellwethers for some time.

[Suburbia]

With almost everything now counted, here's the order of counties from most to least Democratic:

1. Essex
2. Hudson
3. Mercer
4. Camden
5. Union
6. Middlesex
7. Burlington
8. Bergen
9. Somerset

<Statewide result>

10. Passaic
11. Gloucester
12. Cumberland
13. Atlantic
14. Morris
15. Monmouth
16. Hunterdon
17. Cape May
18. Salem
19. Warren
20. Sussex
21. Ocean

It seems like Somerset and Passaic will indeed be the statewide bellwethers for some time.

Passaic has Paterson and Passaic City, so Lean D, but Wayne is there and Wayne is a GOP-leaning place.

[Senator Incitatus]

Jack Ciattarelli and Diane Allen will formally concede tomorrow afternoon, as it is mathematically impossible to win.

Diane Allen's career is over, she was brought out of retirement to do this adventure, is Ciattarelli's career over or does he run in 2025 or does he run for a Congressional seat in 2022 or 2024?

https://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2021/11/11/ciattarelli-plans-to-concede-in-new-jersey-governors-race-1392833

I think Ciattarelli might run for Congress in 2022 or for the Senate in 2024

He can’t run for Congress unless he wants to pull a MacArthur and run out of a shore house.

[Ferguson97]

Lol no

[Roll Roons]

With the dust having largely settled, the legislative results were as follows:

GOP made a net gain of 1 in the Senate, picking up LD-3 (Sweeney's seat) and the Burlington-based LD-8 from party switcher Dawn Addiego. But they lost LD-16 because holding onto a seat that contained Princeton was too much to ask for. They also held onto LD-2 (Atlantic).

They made a net gain of 6 in the Assembly, holding all their current seats and picking up two each in LDs 2, 3 and 11 (Monmouth).

LDs 2, 8, 21 (Union, Somerset and Morris), 25 (mostly Morris with one town in Somerset) and 39 (mostly Bergen with a couple towns in Passaic) will have all-Republican legislative representation despite having voted for Biden. LD-11, also a Biden district, reelected incumbent Democratic Senator Vin Gopal despite Republicans winning both Assembly seats. It will be the only split legislative delegation.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/CAIRNational/status/1458815315568205826

Speaking about Durr.

Durr later apologized, and reiterated that apology during Wednesday's meeting, according to CAIR-NJ. He left the meeting with a copy of the Quran.

"We wanted to dispel any of the incorrect beliefs he has about our community," CAIR-NJ Executive Director Selaedin Maksut said. "We also want to remind him of his responsibility as an elected official. He represents Muslims as well. It's his responsibility to keep their safety in mind."
Maksut called the meeting, "productive."

"Mr. Durr was sincere in his apology, and we welcome his condemnation of Islamophobia and his commitment to renouncing hate-speech," Maksut said.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/CAIRNational/status/1458815315568205826

Speaking about Durr.

Durr later apologized, and reiterated that apology during Wednesday's meeting, according to CAIR-NJ. He left the meeting with a copy of the Quran.

"We wanted to dispel any of the incorrect beliefs he has about our community," CAIR-NJ Executive Director Selaedin Maksut said. "We also want to remind him of his responsibility as an elected official. He represents Muslims as well. It's his responsibility to keep their safety in mind."
Maksut called the meeting, "productive."

"Mr. Durr was sincere in his apology, and we welcome his condemnation of Islamophobia and his commitment to renouncing hate-speech," Maksut said.

Okay, so he probably won't actually be an MTG/Blankenship-tier gold mine. Good to know, I guess!

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/CAIRNational/status/1458815315568205826

Speaking about Durr.

Durr later apologized, and reiterated that apology during Wednesday's meeting, according to CAIR-NJ. He left the meeting with a copy of the Quran.

"We wanted to dispel any of the incorrect beliefs he has about our community," CAIR-NJ Executive Director Selaedin Maksut said. "We also want to remind him of his responsibility as an elected official. He represents Muslims as well. It's his responsibility to keep their safety in mind."
Maksut called the meeting, "productive."

"Mr. Durr was sincere in his apology, and we welcome his condemnation of Islamophobia and his commitment to renouncing hate-speech," Maksut said.

Okay, so he probably won't actually be an MTG/Blankenship-tier gold mine. Good to know, I guess!

It sucks, I lose Sweeney and I don't even get a meme

[wbrocks67]

Murphy up to +2.9% (73,814 votes)

Murphy (D) 1,304,954 (51.1%)
Ciattarelli (R) 1,231,140 (48.2%)

Murphy hits +3.0% (+76,634 votes)

Phil Murphy (D) 1,326,713 (51.1%)
Jack Ciattarelli (R) 1,250,079 (48.1%)

[wbrocks67]

Murphy hits +3.0% (+76,634 votes)

Phil Murphy (D) 1,326,713 (51.1%)
Jack Ciattarelli (R) 1,250,079 (48.1%)

Murphy up to +3.2% (82,985 vote lead)

Phil Murphy (D) 1,336,177 (51.2%)
Jack Ciattarelli (R) 1,253,192 (48.0%)

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/CAIRNational/status/1458815315568205826

Speaking about Durr.

Durr later apologized, and reiterated that apology during Wednesday's meeting, according to CAIR-NJ. He left the meeting with a copy of the Quran.

"We wanted to dispel any of the incorrect beliefs he has about our community," CAIR-NJ Executive Director Selaedin Maksut said. "We also want to remind him of his responsibility as an elected official. He represents Muslims as well. It's his responsibility to keep their safety in mind."
Maksut called the meeting, "productive."

"Mr. Durr was sincere in his apology, and we welcome his condemnation of Islamophobia and his commitment to renouncing hate-speech," Maksut said.

Okay, so he probably won't actually be an MTG/Blankenship-tier gold mine. Good to know, I guess!

Um, did you actually read what his post from 2019 was?

[MT Treasurer]

I’m sure this has been asked/discussed before, but why did Murphy do better than Biden in Hudson County?

[Roll Roons]

I’m sure this has been asked/discussed before, but why did Murphy do better than Biden in Hudson County?

https://newjerseyglobe.com/local/brian-stack-is-new-jerseys-gotv-king/

Jersey City also had some hotly contested municipal races.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

I’m sure this has been asked/discussed before, but why did Murphy do better than Biden in Hudson County?

Don’t have access to precinct level results or any real knowledge of Metro NYC, but I’m guessing it has to do with Latinos and Asians. Either Ciattarelli couldn’t draw out ambivalent Trump voters, or Murphy was more of a Generic D than Biden.

[Roll Roons]

So Ciattarelli obviously won the white vote statewide. Is it also safe to assume that he won it in every county aside from Hudson, Essex, Mercer, Union and Camden?

[Dead Parrot]

I've been compiling town-by-town results in a Google Sheet. So far 13 counties have certified out of 21.

[Suburbia]

Murphy lost his own hometown, Middletown.

He lost Middletown in 2017 as well.

I guess Middletown is a red town because of the taxes.

https://savejersey.com/2021/11/murphys-neighbors-voted-against-him-by-a-2-to-1-margin/

[Suburbia]

So Ciattarelli obviously won the white vote statewide. Is it also safe to assume that he won it in every county aside from Hudson, Essex, Mercer, Union and Camden?

Murphy probably won Middlesex's white vote as well....

[Biden his time]

Interesting swings among the majority-Hispanic townships from the 2020 US Presidential election to the 2021 Gubernatorial election (data from "Dead Parrot"'s spreadsheet right above and the US Election Atlas).

D+5.0 (D+44 in 2020, D+49 in 2021) - (83% Hispanic, Pop. 55K) Perth Amboy, Middlesex County
D+26.2 (D+44 in 2020, D+70 in 2021) - (82% Hispanic, Pop. 69K) Union City, Hudson County
R+4.4 (D+35 in 2020, D+31 in 2021) - (77% Hispanic, Pop. 18K) Dover, Morris County
D+10.4 (D+39 in 2020, D+49 in 2021) - (76% Hispanic, Pop. 53K) West New York, Hudson County
D+12.4 (D+26 in 2020, D+38 in 2021) - (73% Hispanic, Pop. 71K) Passaic, Passaic County
D+10.8 (D+34 in 2020, D+45 in 2021) - (71% Hispanic, Pop. 63K) North Bergen, Hudson County
D+2.6 (D+22 in 2020, D+25 in 2021) - (67% Hispanic, Pop. 15K) Fairview, Bergen County
D+1.2 (D+41 in 2020, D+55 in 2021) - (66% Hispanic, Pop. 137K) Elizabeth, Union County
D+10.7 (D+41 in 2020, D+55 in 2021) - (65% Hispanic, Pop. 12K) Guttenberg, Hudson County
D+9.0 (D+61 in 2020, D+70 in 2021) - (62% Hispanic, Pop. 160K) Paterson, Passaic County
R+7.1 (D+33 in 2020, D+26 in 2021) - (62% Hispanic, Pop. 2.6K) East Newark, Hudson County
R+13.5 (D+53 in 2020, D+40 in 2021) - (60% Hispanic, Pop. 27K) Bridgeton, Cumberland County
R+6.8 (D+48 in 2020, D+41 in 2021) - (59% Hispanic, Pop. 6.4K) Prospect Park, Passaic County
R+4.2 (D+64 in 2020, D+60 in 2021) - (57% Hispanic, Pop. 55K) New Brunswick, Middlesex County
R+1.3 (D+80 in 2020, D+79 in 2021) - (55% Hispanic, Pop. 55K) Plainfield, Union County
D+3.5 (D+79 in 2020, D+83 in 2021) - (53% Hispanic, Pop. 72K) Camden, Camden County
R+19.7 (D+22 in 2020, D+3 in 2021) - (53% Hispanic, Pop. 13K) Freehold, Monmouth County
R+18.8 (D+20 in 2020, D+1 in 2021) - (53% Hispanic, Pop. 12K) Bound Brook, Somerset County
R+10.9 (D+48 in 2020, D+37 in 2021) - (51% Hispanic, Pop. 23K) North Plainfield, Somerset County
NO DATA - (50% Hispanic, Pop. 38K) Belleville, Essex County
R+19.4 (D+70 in 2020, D+50 in 2021) - (50% Hispanic, Pop. 21K) Pleasantville, Atlantic County

Population numbers and Hispanic percentages from 2020 US Census

First thing you'll notice is that the pattern is that the less Hispanic the city is, the more White the city is, and the more it swung to Biden by in the 2020 US Presidential election, the more it swung to Ciattarelli in 2021. You can see this difference between Camden (a 4% White city that swung double digits to Trump), which swung by 4% towards Murphy, and Bridgeton (which, while being a majority-Hispanic city, actually swung towards Biden in 2020, showing its relatively richer and more assimilated status), which swung against Murphy by 14%.

And all these swings occurred while the rest of New Jersey swung some 13% towards the Republican (Trump to Ciattarelli).

You all think this is because Hispanic Trump voters truly are "low-propensity"? Or is this is an example of downballot trends lagging? Or does it show that Trump 2020 was a fluke among Hispanics? Or somewhere in between?

Or does it show nothing at all?

[kwabbit]

You all think this is because Hispanic Trump voters truly are "low-propensity"? Or is this is an example of downballot trends lagging? Or does it show that Trump 2020 was a fluke among Hispanics? Or somewhere in between?

Or does it show nothing at all?

I don't think the Hispanic swing to Trump was a fluke, given Biden's poor approvals among Hispanics, but Republicans will have to earn the Hispanic vote. Ciattarelli's property tax and 'New Jersey native' based campaign probably didn't resonate with Hispanic voters. Culture war tactics might, but any NJ Republican knows to avoid that.

Any analysis about the future of the Hispanic vote really needs 2022 to become meaningful.

[Senator Incitatus]

So Ciattarelli obviously won the white vote statewide. Is it also safe to assume that he won it in every county aside from Hudson, Essex, Mercer, Union and Camden?

Murphy probably won Middlesex's white vote as well....

What? Absolutely not. I'm even doubtful he won it in Union and Camden (though he still probably did, narrowly). I'll grant he won Mercer whites but only because that's the one county in that with a proportionally large population of white liberals.

New census numbers are going to show that most of these counties are now close to majority-minority. Middlesex almost definitely is. There's zero chance that Murphy won the white vote given the relatively tight margin. The majority white precincts (almost exclusively in Monroe and Old Bridge) all went for Ciattarelli with the exception of the retirement homes in Monroe (which are almost exclusively Jewish Brooklyn emigrants).

Middlesex Precinct Results: https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NJ/Middlesex/110780/web.278093/#/summary

Racial Breakdown: https://statisticalatlas.com/county/New-Jersey/Middlesex-County/Race-and-Ethnicity