NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[LAB-LIB]

Sweeney losing *almost* makes up for Virginia

yeah considering he was a thorn in Murphy's side to get things done, I'm not even upset about this tbh

Totally agree. We made up for it by beating former Congressman (and singer-songwriter best known for his 1998 hit "Twinkle Twinkle Kenneth Starr") Mike Pappas, in NJ-16.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I wish I could say that I'm glad this is over, but I'm not, because it isn't over. New Jersey is going to have election conspiracy theorists descend upon it over these next few weeks. I'm certain of it.
I just hope that when those Biden-Ciatarelli/other Republican supporters see these people and their obnoxious shirts in the fields of the state that they immediately lament ever even slightly associating with them. But then again, I overestimated the voting public yet again, and I thought I had learned this time and kept my expectations grounded.

I thought I would be able to take solace in my state and my fellow residents of it. But I can't. This was a disaster in every way, and even with Murphy winning and transcending the Democratic incumbent Governor curse, since the Republicans basically won everything else. What's worse is that I feel responsible. I, just like the New Jersey Democratic Party, got complacent even while tempering my expectations for the typical GOP overperformance in off-years. I could have done more. I should have done more since I actually live in a state with what turned out to be a competitive election. Hell, I couldn't even get my sister vote. I said her vote would matter but she didn't believe me. I guess I at least got some vindication in that sense. And while we're talking incredibly minor, barely qualifying as silver linings: I am actually surprised now that Murphy won Somerset after all (if it holds). I guess that county really is gone for the GOP, especially with it being S***arelli's home. So Democrats still have some benefit from the polarization in this country in the form of locked-in support from educated suburbanites...certainly not enough that are reliable sure-bets though, also looking at Virginia. That's the most startling theme of last night's miserable events. The Democratic Party is going to become extinct because we cannot figure out what Americans want, what they care about, and what they remember. Much of that is on us, but I'm not absolving the average voter of their guilt either, we should expect some rationality, right? Well, I in particular, am not anymore.

The term "Murphy's Law' is poetically accurate to what transpired here in the Garden State and elsewhere. I now have a worse opinion of my home.

[Asta]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pWm-E6k-nsFNQZU8oJpYxcN1iVuv2VpA1d0A_03rz1U/edit#gid=1371359546

We're not done counting yet, but it's safe to say the margin won't change too much.
I input my county-only results.

1) Not surprisingly, the highest turnout came from red counties. Their turnout mostly ranged from 59-66% of 2020 turnout. Some of the most important blue counties' turnouts were below 50% of 2020 turnout.

2) Cittarelli improved upon Trump's margin in almost every county by double digits except Hudson county, where margin roughly stayed the same. It is one of the counties Trump made significant inroad in 2020. You'd have thought Cittarelli could input more damage to it. Nope. Truly odd anomaly.

Many Republicans would have voted more if they knew it was going to be this close. Republicans that sat out this election thinking Murphy had it in the bag is going to be banging their feet.

For those interested, I have my bluest and reddest cities in 2020 in "Total" tab, which is the leftmost tab. The bluest city was East Orange City and reddest city was Lakewood. 

[hurricanehink]

I wonder if this scary-close election (and the loss of several state senate/assembly seats) will get New Jersey to move their election a year (in either direction, I don't really care). Turnout in 2020 was 72%, with Biden getting 2.6 million votes, and 4.5 million votes, so 100% turnout would be 6.3 million. With 90% of the results in for the governor election and 2.4 million votes, that suggests around 2.6 million total votes, which would be a turnout of 41%.

Assuming yesterday's election had a turnout of 41%, that's actually a slight uptick from 2017 (with a turnout of 38.5%), and slightly higher than 2013 (with a turnout of 39.6%). In Chris Christie's 2009 win, the turnout was 46.9%.

So if the NJ Dems wanna make sure that they don't get screwed, and keep it a "liberal" state (it barely counts as one), they might want to move the election dates. Imagine New Jerseyans not having to vote every single goddamn year, and how much it would save by being held the same time as Congressional elections.

[Asta]

I wish I could say that I'm glad this is over, but I'm not, because it isn't over. New Jersey is going to have election conspiracy theorists descend upon it over these next few weeks. I'm certain of it.
I just hope that when those Biden-Ciatarelli/other Republican supporters see these people and their obnoxious shirts in the fields of the state that they immediately lament ever even slightly associating with them. But then again, I overestimated the voting public yet again, and I thought I had learned this time and kept my expectations grounded.

I thought I would be able to take solace in my state and my fellow residents of it. But I can't. This was a disaster in every way, and even with Murphy winning and transcending the Democratic incumbent Governor curse, since the Republicans basically won everything else. What's worse is that I feel responsible. I, just like the New Jersey Democratic Party, got complacent even while tempering my expectations for the typical GOP overperformance in off-years. I could have done more. I should have done more since I actually live in a state with what turned out to be a competitive election. Hell, I couldn't even get my sister vote. I said her vote would matter but she didn't believe me. I guess I at least got some vindication in that sense. And while we're talking incredibly minor, barely qualifying as silver linings: I am actually surprised now that Murphy won Somerset after all (if it holds). I guess that county really is gone for the GOP, especially with it being S***arelli's home. So Democrats still have some benefit from the polarization in this country in the form of locked-in support from educated suburbanites...certainly not enough that are reliable sure-bets though, also looking at Virginia. That's the most startling theme of last night's miserable events. The Democratic Party is going to become extinct because we cannot figure out what Americans want, what they care about, and what they remember. Much of that is on us, but I'm not absolving the average voter of their guilt either, we should expect some rationality, right? Well, I in particular, am not anymore.

The term "Murphy's Law' is poetically accurate to what transpired here in the Garden State and elsewhere. I now have a worse opinion of my home.

As a former New Yorker that lived in Long Island and Queens for combined 13 years, I'll defend NJ to the end of the earth, because it is still one of the top states for education, healthcare and crimes. Unlike New Yorkers who don't spare NJ from ridicule, I'm a different breed.

I couldn't get my younger brother and sister to vote in gubernatorial race either because they're not passionate about politics as I am. The only disappointing thing for me personally about this race is that it confirms everyone's suspicions that Democratic constituents are far more apathetic about politics and need to be pushed to vote.

While tech companies skew heavily liberal, the political consumers are overwhelmingly conservative, even in YouTube, Instagram and Facebook. It's how, and not how much you spend the money. Effective messaging and social media are far more money-efficient and powerful. I feel Democrats are squandering this opportunity. They need to seriously improve in this category, because Republicans have seized and taken advantage of technology far better, even if their electorate is older and seemingly less tech-savvy. Democrats need to message young voters there are more important things than Snapchat or watching cat videos, because we seem to have far greater share of politically apathetic and low-propensity voters.

A history is written by the winners or so they say. I'm not going to lose sleep over this race, because a win is a win

[BigSerg]

[emailking]

I wish I could say that I'm glad this is over, but I'm not, because it isn't over. New Jersey is going to have election conspiracy theorists descend upon it over these next few weeks. I'm certain of it.

I already saw one on SM, calling for an audit. Something about a county was reporting 100% last night with Murphy behind in the county, and today 40K more votes or something were added and Murphy was ahead.

[GoTfan]

I love how everyone from all sides of politics is just dunking on Sweeney.

Machine politics is a cancer on democracy and needs to die a painful death.

[lfromnj]

I love how everyone from all sides of politics is just dunking on Sweeney.

Machine politics is a cancer on democracy and needs to die a painful death.

Sweeney stood upto the teacher  unions and they spent 5 million against him. Hardly a standard of machines



RIP HERO

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I love how everyone from all sides of politics is just dunking on Sweeney.

Machine politics is a cancer on democracy and needs to die a painful death.

Sweeney stood upto the unions and they spent 5 million against him. Hardly a standard of machines



RIP HERO

It's fun to meme about Sweeney's (likely) defeat, but unironically, I do feel his defeat is bad news for NJ, on net.
I worry about big spending taking over the state government if he leaves the scene.

[Roll Roons]

I love how everyone from all sides of politics is just dunking on Sweeney.

Machine politics is a cancer on democracy and needs to die a painful death.

Sweeney stood upto the unions and they spent 5 million against him. Hardly a standard of machines



RIP HERO

It's fun to meme about Sweeney's defeat, but unironically, I do feel his defeat is bad news for NJ, on net.
I worry about big spending taking over the state government if he leaves the scene.

I wouldn't be surprised if Sweeney's loss causes Murphy/legislative Dems to go all-in on an ambitious agenda and leads to big backlash against them in 2023 and 2025.

Back in 1991, Dem Governor Florio (who came in with a trifecta) instituted a massive tax increase that resulted in the GOP winning legislative supermajorities.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I love how everyone from all sides of politics is just dunking on Sweeney.

Machine politics is a cancer on democracy and needs to die a painful death.

Sweeney stood upto the unions and they spent 5 million against him. Hardly a standard of machines



RIP HERO

It's fun to meme about Sweeney's defeat, but unironically, I do feel his defeat is bad news for NJ, on net.
I worry about big spending taking over the state government if he leaves the scene.

I wouldn't be surprised if Sweeney's loss leads Murphy/legislative Dems to go all-in on an ambitious agenda and causes big backlash against them in 2023 and 2025.

Back in 1991, Dem Governor Florio (who came in with a trifecta) instituted a massive tax increase that resulted in the GOP winning legislative supermajorities.

Yeah, it's good for Ds to have brakes, like Sweeney, there. Either he's a check on the most unpopular things that Ds, drunk on hubris, might want to pass, or the electorate might feel like they have to elect a Republican to provide that check.
Murphy and other Dems don't know how good they have it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Youngkin and the Rs campaigned on tax cuts, D's are trying to raise taxes in the Reconciliation Bill, anytime you see Rs Approval go up despite Jan 6th insurrection, it's because of tax cuts not tax hikes, Rs swept into powered in 1994/2010 bases on saying your taxes are too high

Middle class voters pay the bill of taxes that rich people don't pay because they still work, Rich people are protected because they're Entrepreneur

[wbrocks67]

Latest update, via CNN

Phil Murphy 1,236,066 (50.3%)
Jack Ciattarelli 1,200,682 (48.9%)
~88% in

Blue counties still appear to have stuff out

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/dontcurvemeplz/status/1455968148189065231

lol

One of these tweets is not like the others…

[wbrocks67]

CNN saying 88% is in, not sure if it's correct or not.

But this is how much is allegedly left. All counties with <90% reporting are all D counties.

Hudson (D+47) - 81% in
Essex (D+47) - 84% in
Camden (D+24) - 88% in
Passaic (D+2) - 88% in
Mercer (D+29) - 89% in
Middelsex (D+11) - 89% in
Salem (R+29) - 90% in
Cumberland (R+12) - 91% in
Hunterdon (R+20) - 91% in
Monmouth (R+20) - 91% in
Morris (R+14) - 91% in
Burlington (D+5) - 92% in
Atlantic (R+12) - 93% in
Cape May (R+27) - 93% in
Somerset (D+2) - 93% in
Gloucester (R+10) - 93% in
Bergen (D+5) - 94% in
Ocean (R+36) - 95% in

[wbrocks67]

Latest update, via CNN

Phil Murphy 1,236,066 (50.3%)
Jack Ciattarelli 1,200,682 (48.9%)
~88% in

Blue counties still appear to have stuff out

Phil Murphy 1,245,196 (50.4%)
Jack Ciattarelli 1,205,387 (48.8%)
~88% in

Murphy +39,809 (1.6%)

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/ActualAlexZ/status/1456281069670514696

Wow....

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sad news.

[Lambsbread]

Simultaneously hilarious that Sweeney's career was ended by a political layperson and upsetting that said layperson has some pretty terrible views.

[KaiserDave]

Great news

[wbrocks67]

Simultaneously hilarious that Sweeney's career was ended by a political layperson and upsetting that said layperson has some pretty terrible views.

Honestly, this isn't a totally bad thing b/c it raises the probability that this guy will lose next time he's up and we can elect someone a lot better than Sweeney to that position.

[Mr. Matt]

Simultaneously hilarious that Sweeney's career was ended by a political layperson and upsetting that said layperson has some pretty terrible views.

Honestly, this isn't a totally bad thing b/c it raises the probability that this guy will lose next time he's up and we can elect someone a lot better than Sweeney to that position.

The district might not go back D necessarily (though redistricting may be a lot different now to maybe move some of the northern suburbs of the district around Rowan or Bridgeton elsewhere) but the next election is in two years during the Murphy-midterm/post-Biden-midterm.

If there's any solstice, Vin Gopal is still barely ahead in ruby Atlas blue Monmouth and the 3rd loss may be offset by Zwicker winning in the 16th- he's barely ahead right now, but I don't know how much of South Brunswick or Princeton is still out.

[Lord Admirale]

And you guys called me crazy for saying Ciattarelli had a chance. He didn't win, but he sure as hell got way closer than 90% of Atlas expected.

[Roll Roons]

Simultaneously hilarious that Sweeney's career was ended by a political layperson and upsetting that said layperson has some pretty terrible views.

Honestly, this isn't a totally bad thing b/c it raises the probability that this guy will lose next time he's up and we can elect someone a lot better than Sweeney to that position.

The district might not go back D necessarily (though redistricting may be a lot different now to maybe move some of the northern suburbs of the district around Rowan or Bridgeton elsewhere) but the next election is in two years during the Murphy-midterm/post-Biden-midterm.

If there's any solstice, Vin Gopal is still barely ahead in ruby Atlas blue Monmouth and the 3rd loss may be offset by Zwicker winning in the 16th- he's barely ahead right now, but I don't know how much of South Brunswick or Princeton is still out.

Bear in mind that Republicans also flipped the 8th - looks like Senate will be R+1 in the end.