NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Christie barely won in 2009 and that was with a scandal-plagued Dem incumbent, in a time with sizably less polarization. I don't see a repeat happening today.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Gonna predict Murphy+7.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm watching the State Senate and State Assembly races more than the Governor's race.

What are you seeing?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm watching the State Senate and State Assembly races more than the Governor's race.

What are you seeing?

I'm watching Districts 2, 8, and 16 for State Senate. I'm also watching District 21 because Biden won it but I'm not feeling too optimistic there. Sorry I didn't see this earlier.

Ah. Thanks for the reply anyway! Best of luck.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There goes my Murphy+7 prediction, up in smoke.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There goes my Murphy+7 prediction, up in smoke.

Happens sometimes, best to contain it and chill, still looks like it might be a longer night than expected in NJ....

Oh, I'm not mad, no need to chill. I'm just surprised. This came out of the left field.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There goes my Murphy+7 prediction, up in smoke.

Happens sometimes, best to contain it and chill, still looks like it might be a longer night than expected in NJ....

Oh, I'm not mad, no need to chill. I'm just surprised. This came out of the left field.

No hate pack from my side....    we cool?

Always was!
You are a great poster and I consider you a friend.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Question, say Sweeney loses - does that make this election cycle a big win for Murphy by default, even if he only narrowly won re-election?
(It's not like D legislative majorities seem to be under threat after all)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I love how everyone from all sides of politics is just dunking on Sweeney.

Machine politics is a cancer on democracy and needs to die a painful death.

Sweeney stood upto the unions and they spent 5 million against him. Hardly a standard of machines



RIP HERO

It's fun to meme about Sweeney's (likely) defeat, but unironically, I do feel his defeat is bad news for NJ, on net.
I worry about big spending taking over the state government if he leaves the scene.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I love how everyone from all sides of politics is just dunking on Sweeney.

Machine politics is a cancer on democracy and needs to die a painful death.

Sweeney stood upto the unions and they spent 5 million against him. Hardly a standard of machines



RIP HERO

It's fun to meme about Sweeney's defeat, but unironically, I do feel his defeat is bad news for NJ, on net.
I worry about big spending taking over the state government if he leaves the scene.

I wouldn't be surprised if Sweeney's loss leads Murphy/legislative Dems to go all-in on an ambitious agenda and causes big backlash against them in 2023 and 2025.

Back in 1991, Dem Governor Florio (who came in with a trifecta) instituted a massive tax increase that resulted in the GOP winning legislative supermajorities.

Yeah, it's good for Ds to have brakes, like Sweeney, there. Either he's a check on the most unpopular things that Ds, drunk on hubris, might want to pass, or the electorate might feel like they have to elect a Republican to provide that check.
Murphy and other Dems don't know how good they have it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sad news.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I love how everyone from all sides of politics is just dunking on Sweeney.

Machine politics is a cancer on democracy and needs to die a painful death.

Sweeney stood upto the unions and they spent 5 million against him. Hardly a standard of machines



RIP HERO

It's fun to meme about Sweeney's defeat, but unironically, I do feel his defeat is bad news for NJ, on net.
I worry about big spending taking over the state government if he leaves the scene.

I wouldn't be surprised if Sweeney's loss leads Murphy/legislative Dems to go all-in on an ambitious agenda and causes big backlash against them in 2023 and 2025.

Back in 1991, Dem Governor Florio (who came in with a trifecta) instituted a massive tax increase that resulted in the GOP winning legislative supermajorities.

Yeah, it's good for Ds to have brakes, like Sweeney, there. Either he's a check on the most unpopular things that Ds, drunk on hubris, might want to pass, or the electorate might feel like they have to elect a Republican to provide that check.
Murphy and other Dems don't know how good they have it.

 Murphy's policies are actually quite popular. It's only because he succeeded with a progress of agenda that he likely succeeded rather than being labeled as a do nothing as Biden is, I hate to say somewhat accurately, I'll be at 1st I'll be at for Joe and Kristen, being labeled.

Let's face it, these policies such as a $15 minimum wage, marijuana legalization, and high income tax increases are vastly more politically popular than the sh**t Jack what's his face was pushing. Murphy almost lost because of because of a combination of national trends, the lingering covid shut down, and one of the stupidest and most harmful gaffses a politician has made in recent memory just before an election.

Well, there are definitely things to Murphy's program there were quite popular. But NJ voters didn't seem to give him credit for them very much (in part because he didn't seem to campaign on them as much) and I'm skeptical that they positively love taxes.

If Murphy and the D trifecta overreach on the tax issue it could absolutely give Rs gains in the state legislature. 49 states (including NJ) require balanced budgets. If Murphy has big spending plans, he is likely to have to raise taxes, and if the increases in expenditure are high enough, then the tax increases are going to have to go up accordingly. Either that or they put in a lot of fees, which is essentially a tax by another name, and might still annoy the public.

NJ has high quality-of-life, but that doesn't necessarily mean people are going to accept ever-increasing tax increases to fund higher government expenditures aimed at increasing that. The median voter is probably significantly influenced by the tax issue even if they might not vote on that basis most of the time anymore for the time being. It is that tendency in the state Sweeney represented and thus his defeat could end quite badly for Ds in the long run, even if it sounds all nice and dandy in the short term.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

3-4% isn't really that bad either, historically, especially for a Dem Governor who actually raised taxes on the scale Murphy did. He's also the first NJ Dem Governor altogether to win re-election since...1977?
Sure, expectations were too high, and it almost feels like a loss, but a more realism-grounded perspective would have framed it differently.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I've been compiling town-by-town results in a Google Sheet. So far 13 counties have certified out of 21.

All 21 counties have been added.

Thank you for your hard work.