Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Yoda]

Vladimir Putin, meet the sunk-cost fallacy. That's what the war has seemingly become for Russia at this point.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1520167137507221506?s=20&t=3wX55ctURgt...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1520170795112280067?s=20&t=3wX55ctURgt...

One thing I keep noting that this guy clearly gets but a lot of people don't is that people dramatically overestimate the size of Russia's population.

Fun comparison (both rounded to the nearest 5 million):

Population of Russia: ~145 million
Population of Mexico: ~130 million

Think about that for a second. Would you be saying "Mexico has unlimited manpower, it can keep sending wave and wave of people into Guatemala, Guatemala has no chance here?" in the event that war was taking place? No, of course not. Russia is basically Mexico X 1.1 in terms of people. It's a way way smaller country than people think it is.

And on top of that they are shrinking. Which is one of the main reasons why Putin acts from such a place of weakness. He's desperately trying to stop the inevitable trend of russia becoming smaller and weaker.

[Aurelius]

A little bit of levity and egg-on-face relating to possibly the nastiest man in Russia: here's a funny video of Ramzan Kadyrov's "workout" routine.

https://twitter.com/ZidanSports/status/1519681838117122048
If Russia's military "training" looks like this too - or if Putin's generals are surrounded by these sorts of yes-men, that says more about why they've failed so spectacularly so far than any amount of #analysis of military strategy. Of course, I doubt it's *this* pathetic for ordinary grunts because in this case they're trying to indulge an iron-fisted dictator. Regardless, it's pretty funny how they put out a video of Kadyrov bench-pressing 50 kg or possibly less (those plates are 5 kg, even though they look like full plates; and that might not be a full-weight bar) at one-third range of motion to try and make him look like Mr. Tough Guy.

Kadyrov's other attempts at athletic escapades are even funnier. The guy is a total fool and thinks he's hot s**t.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1520273350337175553
https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1520192368842002438?cxt=HHwWjMCy8fa555gqAA...

[CumbrianLefty]

Vladimir Putin, meet the sunk-cost fallacy. That's what the war has seemingly become for Russia at this point.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1520167137507221506?s=20&t=3wX55ctURgt...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1520170795112280067?s=20&t=3wX55ctURgt...

One thing I keep noting that this guy clearly gets but a lot of people don't is that people dramatically overestimate the size of Russia's population.

Fun comparison (both rounded to the nearest 5 million):

Population of Russia: ~145 million
Population of Mexico: ~130 million

Think about that for a second. Would you be saying "Mexico has unlimited manpower, it can keep sending wave and wave of people into Guatemala, Guatemala has no chance here?" in the event that war was taking place? No, of course not. Russia is basically Mexico X 1.1 in terms of people. It's a way way smaller country than people think it is.

And that population is disproportionately elderly.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Vladimir Putin, meet the sunk-cost fallacy. That's what the war has seemingly become for Russia at this point.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1520167137507221506?s=20&t=3wX55ctURgt...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1520170795112280067?s=20&t=3wX55ctURgt...

One thing I keep noting that this guy clearly gets but a lot of people don't is that people dramatically overestimate the size of Russia's population.

Fun comparison (both rounded to the nearest 5 million):

Population of Russia: ~145 million
Population of Mexico: ~130 million

Think about that for a second. Would you be saying "Mexico has unlimited manpower, it can keep sending wave and wave of people into Guatemala, Guatemala has no chance here?" in the event that war was taking place? No, of course not. Russia is basically Mexico X 1.1 in terms of people. It's a way way smaller country than people think it is.

Your comparison is even off because Guatemala has less than half of Ukraine's population. It would be more like Mexico going up against all of Central America.

Plus as CL and badger noted, Russia's demographics are significantly worse than the raw numbers suggest. That's why I was always skeptical of the claim that Russia had a huge manpower advantage in this war (though I did share in the common assumption their hardware advantage was more significant than it proved to be).

[Woody]

https://www.reuters.com/world/more-than-1-mln-people-evacuated-ukraine-russia-since-feb-24-says-lavrov-2022-04-30/

Lavrov claims more than 1 million people have been "evacuated" from Ukraine into Russia since Feb. 24

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1520285786880491522?s=20&t=6MabQfzz-V2z...

Insanely far from the warzone so... Agents? Quiet civilian sabotage? Lack of necessary replacement parts? Or random incompetency?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.reuters.com/world/more-than-1-mln-people-evacuated-ukraine-russia-since-feb-24-says-lavrov-2022-04-30/

Lavrov claims more than 1 million people have been "evacuated" from Ukraine into Russia since Feb. 24

There seem to be around 3 (3.5?) million ethnic Ukrainians in Russia as of the war's start.
Not impossible this war has single-handedly increased the numbers of ethnic Ukrainians in Russia by 25-30%.

[Hindsight was 2020]

And interesting 🧵 on the Battle of Donbas, some key points
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1520313940688912384
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1520313948834353152
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1520313955209592835
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1520313959924043776
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1520313962092449792
https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1520314844687253504

[Middle-aged Europe]

Red Velvet does not appear to be around here right now, but after he had recently become all giddy about some obscure open letter from mostly fringe left-wing activists who called for ending the miliary support to Ukraine, there is actually a new open letter in Germany now that is at least semi-relevant and being talked about. 28 celebrities/artists/intellectuals led by 1970s feminist icon Alice Schwarzer wrote an open letter to Olaf Scholz demanding an end to the military aid to Ukraine and the negotiation of a cease-fire: https://www.emma.de/artikel/offener-brief-bundeskanzler-scholz-339463

This open letter was met with immediate criticism from a number of politicians of the traffic light coalition and the CDU, condemning the "naivity" of suggesting that the Ukrainians should find a "compromise" with Putin after civilians are being massacred and raped en masse there. Some critics drew comparisons to similar campaigns of COVID deniers and anti-vaxxer activists in the past.

Side note: Alice Schwarzer is certainly an interesting character, probably holding some of most ideosyncretic combination of political views I've ever encountered. Originally an ardent pro-choice, gay rights (or at least lesbian rights) and anti-pay gap activist she grew increasingly more conservative - or one might say authoritarian - over time, and has been know for being a CDU supporter for the past ten years or so. She's anti-prostitution, anti-pornography, anti-BDSM, anti-Islamic headscarves, anti-Islamic immigration, and quite recently she has come under fire for being, well, a TERF on trans rights. Her position on Russia is not an entirely new one either since her reaction to the invasion of Crimea and Donbas in 2014 was to publish a tract titled "Why I can understand Putin despite everything".

[Horus]

Red Velvet does not appear to be around here right now, but after he had recently become all giddy about some obscure open letter from mostly fringe left-wing activists who called for ending the miliary support to Ukraine, there is actually a new open letter in Germany now that is at least semi-relevant and being talked about. 28 celebrities/artists/intellectuals led by 1970s feminist icon Alice Schwarzer wrote an open letter to Olaf Scholz demanding an end to the military aid to Ukraine and the negotiation of a cease-fire: https://www.emma.de/artikel/offener-brief-bundeskanzler-scholz-339463

This open letter was met with immediate criticism from a number of politicians of the traffic light coalition and the CDU, condemning the "naivity" of suggesting that the Ukrainians should find a "compromise" with Putin after civilians are being massacred and raped en masse there. Some critics drew comparisons to similar campaigns of COVID deniers and anti-vaxxer activists in the past.

Side note: Alice Schwarzer is certainly an interesting character, probably holding some of most ideosyncretic combination of political views I've ever encountered. Originally an ardent pro-choice, gay rights (or at least lesbian rights) and anti-pay gap activist she grew increasingly more conservative - or one might say authoritarian - over time, and has been know for being a CDU supporter for the past ten years or so. She's anti-prostitution, anti-pornography, anti-BDSM, anti-Islamic headscarves, anti-Islamic immigration, and quite recently she has come under fire for being, well, a TERF on trans rights. Her position on Russia is not an entirely new one either since her reaction to the invasion of Crimea and Donbas in 2014 was to publish a tract titled "Why I can understand Putin despite everything".

She is apparently also very vocally in favor of male genital mutilation. Seems like a terrible person through and through.

[Storr]

The Russians don't stand a chance.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1520166758237286400?s=20&t=VhB789-...

[DINGO Joe]

Vladimir Putin, meet the sunk-cost fallacy. That's what the war has seemingly become for Russia at this point.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1520167137507221506?s=20&t=3wX55ctURgt...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1520170795112280067?s=20&t=3wX55ctURgt...

One thing I keep noting that this guy clearly gets but a lot of people don't is that people dramatically overestimate the size of Russia's population.

Fun comparison (both rounded to the nearest 5 million):

Population of Russia: ~145 million
Population of Mexico: ~130 million

Think about that for a second. Would you be saying "Mexico has unlimited manpower, it can keep sending wave and wave of people into Guatemala, Guatemala has no chance here?" in the event that war was taking place? No, of course not. Russia is basically Mexico X 1.1 in terms of people. It's a way way smaller country than people think it is.

And that population is disproportionately elderly.

The USSR had 195 million people in 1940, so Russia is 25% smaller than the USSR in WW2 but given the change in the population pyramid it has about 66% fewer people in the 18-30 age range than in 1940,  Of course, Ukraine has a similar population pyramid issue, but they are larger than in 1940.

[Logical]

UkRaiNiAns sHOuLd JuST suRReNdEr.
https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/1520393896165007361
https://twitter.com/sternenko/status/1520394294519083016

[😥]

https://t.me/opersvodki/4112

Protest/blockade happening in front of a enlistment center in Khust, Western Ukraine, by wives and relatives due to mobilization of men.

I ask you once again, Sir Woodbury, not to spread Russian false propaganda. This is a Russian Telegram channel that supports the killings of Ukrainians and spreads fakes to discredit Ukraine and support certain public opinion in Russia about "Nazis in Ukraine" and "success of Russian army".

In fact, we do not have any protests against mobilization now. Honestly, the queue of those who want to go to war is much larger than those who are called up. Several of my friends wanted to go to the front voluntarily, they passed a medical commission - they were told to wait and that they would be called if necessary, but for now they can live a normal life. There are many people among my acquaintances, distant relatives, and their acquaintances who want to go to the front, but who are simply not invited.

P.S. I asked moderators to delete this post of Russian fake propaganda

[Red Velvet]

Red Velvet does not appear to be around here right now, but after he had recently become all giddy about some obscure open letter from mostly fringe left-wing activists who called for ending the miliary support to Ukraine, there is actually a new open letter in Germany now that is at least semi-relevant and being talked about. 28 celebrities/artists/intellectuals led by 1970s feminist icon Alice Schwarzer wrote an open letter to Olaf Scholz demanding an end to the military aid to Ukraine and the negotiation of a cease-fire: https://www.emma.de/artikel/offener-brief-bundeskanzler-scholz-339463

This open letter was met with immediate criticism from a number of politicians of the traffic light coalition and the CDU, condemning the "naivity" of suggesting that the Ukrainians should find a "compromise" with Putin after civilians are being massacred and raped en masse there. Some critics drew comparisons to similar campaigns of COVID deniers and anti-vaxxer activists in the past.

Side note: Alice Schwarzer is certainly an interesting character, probably holding some of most ideosyncretic combination of political views I've ever encountered. Originally an ardent pro-choice, gay rights (or at least lesbian rights) and anti-pay gap activist she grew increasingly more conservative - or one might say authoritarian - over time, and has been know for being a CDU supporter for the past ten years or so. She's anti-prostitution, anti-pornography, anti-BDSM, anti-Islamic headscarves, anti-Islamic immigration, and quite recently she has come under fire for being, well, a TERF on trans rights. Her position on Russia is not an entirely new one either since her reaction to the invasion of Crimea and Donbas in 2014 was to publish a tract titled "Why I can understand Putin despite everything".

Well, thanks for confirming that there isn’t one single way on the west on how to respond, as I’ve been saying. Not just because of western intelectuals open dissent though, but you can see it by the own government hesitant response. Just not realistic to suddenly undo decades of intelectual structures and the Merkel pro-globalization legacy even if the immediate main narrative now is to put pressure to force that shift.

On the same note, if there are mixed internal interests in the west itself, you can imagine how it’s like in non-western places that are much more distant from Ukraine and how willing they are to get involved in a proxy war that has nothing to do with them.

[Woody]

https://t.me/opersvodki/4112

Protest/blockade happening in front of a enlistment center in Khust, Western Ukraine, by wives and relatives due to mobilization of men.

I ask you once again, Sir Woodbury, not to spread Russian false propaganda. This is a Russian Telegram channel that supports the killings of Ukrainians and spreads fakes to discredit Ukraine and support certain public opinion in Russia about "Nazis in Ukraine" and "success of Russian army".

In fact, we do not have any protests against mobilization now. Honestly, the queue of those who want to go to war is much larger than those who are called up. Several of my friends wanted to go to the front voluntarily, they passed a medical commission - they were told to wait and that they would be called if necessary, but for now they can live a normal life. There are many people among my acquaintances, distant relatives, and their acquaintances who want to go to the front, but who are simply not invited.

Alright. I'll delete it.

[Woody]

But it's not false, this event was filmed in the Far West from a Ukrainian, so the primary source/video isn't propaganda.

[😥]

But it's not false, this event was filmed in the Far West from a Ukrainian, so the primary source/video isn't propaganda.

You understand that it depends on how you describe what is happening on the video. I personally see a crowd of women and men near one of the city's administrative buildings. I'm not sure what kind of building it is, what kind of crowd it is and what purpose it was for. Only one what I can say unequivocally is that they are not protesting against mobilization. I will try to find out what it really was and write later.

[😥]

But it's not false, this event was filmed in the Far West from a Ukrainian, so the primary source/video isn't propaganda.

You understand that it depends on how you describe what is happening on the video. I personally see a crowd of women and men near one of the city's administrative buildings. I'm not sure what kind of building it is, what kind of crowd it is and what purpose it was for. Only one what I can say unequivocally is that they are not protesting against mobilization. I will try to find out what it really was and write later.

Okay, my effort to find out what it really was was not long. Yesterday, reporters discovered that military commissar of the city of Khust has a dark past, with some accusing him of working for the enemy. So today, local men and women gathered near the building, trying to storm it, demanding the resignation of the military commissar. But Russian propaganda has once again invented another fake that you wanted to spread. It is not necessary to thank me for refuting.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/sibersong/status/1520421114383671296

[jaichind]

https://www.zmescience.com/science/italy-launches-operation-thermostat-to-limit-the-use-of-air-conditioning/

"Italy launches “operation thermostat” to limit the use of air conditioning"

I assume this part of the plan to reduce dependence on Russian energy. 

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1520436276733878273?s=20&t=GWj_zO90eH...

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1520464651884298240?s=20&t=S_Z3dNwmAax4MK...

[Woody]

But it's not false, this event was filmed in the Far West from a Ukrainian, so the primary source/video isn't propaganda.

You understand that it depends on how you describe what is happening on the video. I personally see a crowd of women and men near one of the city's administrative buildings. I'm not sure what kind of building it is, what kind of crowd it is and what purpose it was for. Only one what I can say unequivocally is that they are not protesting against mobilization. I will try to find out what it really was and write later.

Nah, thank you. I'll admit I usually am very cautious when it comes to Russian telegrams, so I went around and looked, but apparently I dropped the ball on it. Sorry.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1520463695813484545