Polish Politics and Elections

[Oliver]

Apparently, lists consist of more than one political parties. But why do some lists run as coalitions (alliances) which enter the parliament if and only if their vote share exceeds the 8% threshold?

What is the advantage of forming an alliance? There are only drawbacks (8% instead of 5%).

Do the voters see which party the candidate they vote belongs to?

Ballot cards didn't show party of candidate, but official lists of candidates contained professions, localities of residence and parties of candidates.

[Epaminondas]

Incumbent Sejm members who lost reelection:

Nice work.
Would you have the list of Senate races by closeness? I can't find it anywhere.

[M0096]

Answer to Oliver's question:

I know the threshold for seats is 5% for a party and 8% for an alliance.  For the purposes of this rule are the Left, Third Way, and Confederation considered parties or alliances? I assume they are considered alliances.

It depends on the type of electoral committee they decide to participate as. They do not get that status automatically, they have to apply for it. There is whole procedure regulated by law, which specifies rules based on which various types of entities can participate in the elections. Types of those are regulated by the Electoral Code, and there are three of them:

1) komitet wyborczy partii politycznej (KW) - electoral committee (of a party)
2) koalicyjny komitet wyborczy (KKW) - electoral committee of a coalition
3) komitet wyborczy wyborców (KWW) - electoral committee of voters (note: this type of electoral committee is only one allowed to participate in presidential elections)

And now the fun begins, as technically coalitions can participate in the elections as an "ordinary" electoral committee of a party to have lower electoral threshold (The Left is basically doing that second elections in a row due to a trauma of 2015 elections). The main issue in that is that coalitions electoral committee are allowed to split the money from the state which every party after reaching 3% of votes for a party, and 6% for a coalition (so threshold minus 2pp). So, if coalition of the parties decide to run as one of them, and the rest is merely on the electoral lists only the party which is registering the committee will get the money, and this is only their good will if they will somehow, semi-legally share the money with them.  

As for these elections:

1) The Left which is in practice coalition of few parties (post-communist New Left, diem25ist Lewica Razem, and the minors: Unia Pracy, Polska Partia Socjalistyczna [for which I wasted too much of my life by the way] and Socjaldemokracja Polska) participate as party committee of the New Left. Razem basically were subdued by them, so I think in one or two parialemntary terms they will do the same as PvdA/GL, but on a smaller scale (Razem as for now basically has no structures, money etc.).

2) but also PiS decided to participate (again) in the elections as party electoral committee even while they are practically participating as coalition of Zjednoczona Prawica, with their satellites which they are governing Poland - obviously to keep them in check to do not give them too much independence, as their main and the most problematic ally, Suwerenna Polska (formerly Solidarna Polska) led by Minister of Justice Zbigniew Ziobro, was founded in 2011, after unsuccessful attempt to "reform PiS" (probably sideline Kaczyński) by the Ziobro himself.

3) as for the Byzantine-like and overly complicated structure of what Confederation is I would probably have to hire Khan Academy to explain that, because I am not sure if I am even properly understanding this dumbery of a structure. Basically, the closest thing to which I think we can compare Confederation is Dutch PVV. Main difference that there are multiple Geerts, which represents few other political parties, which are members of Confederation (but mainly the two of them - whatever at the moment is name of the Korwin party and nationalists from Ruch Narodowy) but generally do not have members but the leaders and their closest allies. There is so called Rada Liderów Konfederacji (Council of Leaders) who decides about stuff in Confederation. They claim that Konfederacja is "federational" political party, but on paper they are just ordinary political party (Polish law do not consider anything like as federational political party as a real thing) and they participate in the elections as party electoral committee (of a Confederation). But in reality they are more of a coalition than PiS or The Left even if formally not a one in the elections.

4) PO are again, as in the 2019 lenient and decided to participate as a coalition with their satellites so the satellites can get some pocket money to buy themselves something on their own, snacks and soft drinks or whatever.

5) Third Way is coalition, but there is also a twist - although they are technically a coalition of a two parties and they are splitting money 50:50, there are also other parties which have their representatives on their electoral lists.

[M0096]

Senate races (Senate Pact, PiS and other candidates who won over 15% of votes):

(1) NL - PiS - BS
Waldemar Witkowski vs Rafał Ślusarz (i) vs Kamil Barczyk
39,36% - 32,45% - 28,19%
Senate Pact flip from PiS

(2) KO - PiS
Marcin Zawiła vs Krzysztof Mróz (i)
42,03% - 30,57%
Senate Pact flip from PiS

(3) NL - PiS - BS
Małgorzata Sekuła-Szmajdzińska vs Dorota Czudowska (i) vs Tymoteusz Myrcha
38,37% - 36,30% - 15,38%
Senate Pact flip from PiS

(4) KO - PiS
Agnieszka Kołacz-Leszczyńska (i) vs Renata Wierzbicka
58,68% - 31,62%
Senate Pact hold

(5) TD - PiS - ind.
Paweł Gancarz vs Aleksander Szwed (i) vs Andrzej Dyszewski
35,45% - 35,77% - 17,58%
PiS hold

(6) TD - PiS - BS
Kazimierz Ujazdowski vs Jarosław Obremski vs Michał Rado
48,68% - 33,86% - 17,51%
Senate Pact hold

(7) KO - PiS - BS
Grzegorz Schetyna vs Marcin Krzyżanowski vs Gaja Tyralska
61,21% - 22,38% - 16,41%
Senate Pact hold

/8/ KO - PiS
Barbara Zdrojewska (i) vs Małgorzata Calińska-Mayer
62,09% - 23,81%
Senate Pact hold

(9) KO - PiS
Andrzej Kobiak (i) vs Radosław Kempinski
58,31% - 28,71%
Senate Pact hold

(10) KO - PiS
Ryszard Brejza vs Mikołaj Bogdanowicz
44,06% - 35,06%
Senate Pact hold

(11) KO - PiS
Tomasz Lenz vs Maria Mazurkiewicz
66,98% - 33,02%
Senate Pact hold

(12) TD - PiS
Ryszard Bober (i) vs Józef Ramlau
51,00% - 34,16%
Senate Pact hold

(13) NL - PiS
Krzysztof Kukucki vs Józef Łyczak (i)
46,05% - 36,62%
Senate Pact flip from PiS

(14) KO - PiS - Konf.
Jan Rajchel vs Stanisław Gogacz (i) vs Artur Pietras
32,01% - 52,82% - 15,17%
PiS hold

(15) NL - PiS - Konf.
Stanisław Mazur vs Grzegorz Czelej (i) vs Michał Wypych
31,63% - 52,50% - 15,87%
PiS hold

(16) TD - PiS
Jacek Trela vs Lech Sprawka
48,48% - 33,92%
Senate Pact hold

(17) TD - PiS
Marek Sulima vs Grzegorz Bierecki (i)
46,26% - 53,74%
PiS hold

(18) ind. - PiS - Konf.
Józef Zając (i) vs Kamila Grzywaczewska vs Jolanta Duda
44,09% - 40,61% - 15,31%
Senate Pact flip (compared to 2019 parliamentary election)

(19) KO - PiS
Marek Lipiec vs Jerzy Chróścikowski (i)
20,50% - 47,61%
PiS hold

(20) TD - PiS - BS
Mirosław Różański vs Grzegorz Maćkowiak vs Rafał Adamczak
59,15% - 24,79% - 16,06%
Senate Pact hold

(21) KO - BS (without PiS candidate)
Władysław Komarnicki (i) vs Tomasz Jaskuła
58,14% - 41,86%
Senate Pact hold

(22) ind. - PiS
Wadim Tyszkiewicz (i) vs Tomasz Kłosowski
67,95% - 32,05%
Senate Pact hold

(23) KO - PiS
Artur Dunin (i) vs Jan Tomaszewski
71,81% - 28,19%
Senate Pact hold

(24) ind. - PiS
Krzysztof Kwiatkowski (i) vs Piotr Adamczyk
59,90% - 29,48%
Senate Pact hold

(25) TD - PiS
Tadeusz Gajda vs Przemysław Błaszczyk (i)
34,18% - 46,84%
PiS hold

(26) NL - PiS
Marcin Karpiński vs Maciej Łuczak (i)
50,14% - 34,64%
Senate Pact flip from PiS

(27) KO - PiS
Dorota Ryl vs Michał Seweryński (i)
40,18% - 45,47%
PiS hold

(28) TD - PiS
Marek Mazur vs Wiesław Dobkowski (i)
34,87% - 41,04%
PiS hold

(29) TD - PiS
Józef Matysiak vs Rafał Ambrozik (i)
30,26% - 46,28%
PiS hold

(30) TD - PiS
Krzysztof Klęczar vs Andrzej Pająk (i)
40,26% - 41,94%
PiS hold

(31) KO - PiS
Grzegorz Małodobry vs Marek Pęk (i)
41,85% - 43,93%
PiS hold

(32) KO - PiS
Jerzy Fedorowicz (i) vs Zbigniew Cichoń
67,06% - 32,94%
Senate Pact hold

(33) KO - PiS
Bogdan Klich (i) vs Mateusz Małodziński
70,90% - 29,10%
Senate Pact hold

(34) KO - PiS
Adam Korta vs Włodzimierz Bernacki (i)
35,16% - 46,42%
PiS hold

(35) TD - PiS
Stanisław Sorys vs Kazimierz Wiatr (i)
29,90% - 47,12%
PiS hold

(36) ind. - PiS - Konf.
Bogusław Waksmundzki vs Jan Hamerski (i) vs Krzysztof Chmura
28,22% - 54,14% - 17,64%
PiS hold

(37) TD - PiS
Stanisław Pasoń vs Wiktor Durlak (i)
27,57% - 52,71%
PiS hold

(38) TD - PiS
Waldemar Pawlak vs Marek Martynowski (i)
42,37% - 40,17%
Senate Pact flip from PiS

(39) ind. - PiS
Jan Jackowski (i) vs Krzysztof Bieńkowski
41,88% - 47,25%
PiS hold (compared to 2019 parliamentary election)

(40) KO - PiS
Jolanta Hibner (i) vs Adam Lubiak
48,23% - 33,72%
Senate Pact hold

(41) TD - PiS
Michał Kamiński (i) vs Barbara Socha
53,44% - 29,36%
Senate Pact hold

(42) KO - PiS
Marek Borowski (i) vs Wojciech Zabłocki
69,72% - 30,28%
Senate Pact hold

(43) KO - PiS
Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska vs Alvin Gajadhur
74,70% - 25,30%
Senate Pact hold

(44) KO - PiS
Adam Bodnar vs Alicja Żebrowska
76,47% - 23,53%
Senate Pact hold

(45) NL - PiS
Magdalena Biejat vs Michał Grodzki
72,40% - 27,60%
Senate Pact hold

(46) TD - PiS
Grzegorz Nowosielski vs Robert Mamątow (i)
28,55% - 43,09%
PiS hold

(47) BS - PiS (without Senate Pact candidate)
Zbigniew Widelski vs Maciej Górski
48,89% - 51,11%
PiS hold

(48) TD - PiS
Krzysztof Borkowski vs Waldemar Kraska (i)
29,59% - 51,57%
PiS hold

(49) TD - PiS
Leszek Przybytniak vs Stanisław Karczewski (i)
40,19% - 51,78%
PiS hold

(50) TD - PiS
Cezary Brymora vs Wojciech Skurkiewicz (i)
35,48% - 47,96%
PiS hold

(51) KO - PiS
Tadeusz Jarmuziewicz vs Jerzy Czerwiński (i)
46,76% - 39,65%
Senate Pact flip from PiS

(52) NL - PiS - German Minority
Piotr Woźniak vs Marcin Lorenc vs Henryk Lakwa
52,29% - 25,26% - 22,45%
Senate Pact hold

(53) KO - PiS - BS
Beniamin Godyla (i) vs Grzegorz Peczkis vs Herbert Czaja
50,40% - 30,77% - 18,83%
Senate Pact hold

(54) TD - PiS
Paweł Bartoszek vs Janina Sagatowska (i)
33,78% - 53,49%
PiS hold

(55) NL - PiS - Konf.
Marek Paprocki vs Zdzisław Pupa (i) vs Jacek Ćwięka
25,77% - 57,66% - 16,57%
PiS hold

(56) KO - PiS
Jolanta Kaźmierczak vs Józef Jodłowski
32,13% - 42,53%
PiS hold

(57) NL - PiS
Stanisław Szałajko vs Alicja Zając (i)
21,58% - 56,72%
PiS hold

(58) KO - PiS - BS
Adam Woś vs Mieczysław Golba (i) vs Włodzimierz Bodnar
24,30% - 49,20% - 15,82%
PiS hold

(59) TD - PiS
Cezary Cieślukowski vs Marek Komorowski (i)
38,44% - 48,25%
PiS hold

(60) TD - PiS
Maciej Żywno vs Mariusz Gromko (i)
49,58% - 37,72%
Senate Pact flip from PiS

(61) KO - PiS
Sławomir Snarski vs Anna Bogucka
38,98% - 46,94%
PiS hold

(62) KO - PiS
Kazimierz Kleina (i) vs Samanta Nowińska
57,84% - 29,23%
Senate Pact hold

(63) NL - PiS
Anna Górska vs Dariusz Drelich
38,17% - 34,21%
Senate Pact hold

(64) KO - PiS
Sławomir Rybicki (i) vs Danuta Białooka-Kostanecka
73,16% - 26,84%
Senate Pact hold

(65) KO - PiS
Bogdan Borusewicz (i) vs Hubert Grzegorczyk
70,12% - 21,31%
Senate Pact hold

(66) KO - Ind. - Konf. (without PiS candidate)
Ryszard Świlski (i) vs Andrzej Kobylarz vs Dominik Mazur
56,91% - 26,51% - 16,58%
Senate Pact hold

(67) KO - PiS
Leszek Czarnobaj (i) vs Natalia Nitek-Płażyńska
52,56% - 30,44%
Senate Pact hold

(68) TD - PiS - Ind.
Krzysztof Smela vs Ryszard Majer (i) vs Jarosław Lasecki
29,17% - 36,07 - 18,96%
PiS hold

(69) NL - PiS
Wojciech Konieczny (i) vs Monika Pohorecka
49,44% - 30,30%
Senate Pact hold

(70) Ind. - PiS
Zygmunt Frankiewicz (i) vs Łukasz Chmielewski
67,67% - 32,22%
Senate Pact hold

(71) KO - Ind. (without PiS candidate)
Halina Bieda (i) vs Mariusz Wójtowicz
57,70% - 29,59%
Senate Pact hold

(72) KO - BS (BS candidate was deselected PiS incumbent, PiS nominee withdrawn)
Henryk Siedlaczek vs Ewa Gawęda (i)
39,30% - 37,92%
Senate Pact flip from PiS

(73) TD - PiS
Piotr Masłowski vs Wojciech Piecha (i)
40,86% - 36,45%
Senate Pact flip from PiS

(74) KO - PiS
Gabriela Morawska-Stanecka vs Danuta Sobczyk
47,75% - 29,99%
Senate Pact flip from PiS

(75) Ind. - PiS
Andrzej Dziuba vs Piotr Czarnynoga
56,65% - 32,04%
Senate Pact hold

(76) KO - PiS
Beata Małecka-Libera (i) vs Arkadiusz Grabowski
52,37% - 31,27%
Senate Pact hold

(77) KO - PiS
Joanna Sekuła (i) vs Jacek Dudek
55,16% - 29,98%
Senate Pact hold

(78) KO - PiS
Agnieszka Gorgoń-Komor (i) vs Jan Chrząszcz
49,45% - 35,30%
Senate Pact hold

(79) NL - PiS
Konrad Gołota vs Andrzej Kalata
34,28% - 39,59%
PiS hold

(80) NL - PiS - Ind.
Maciej Kopiec vs Leszek Piechota vs Jerzy Markowski
51,50% - 27,18% - 21,33%
Senate Pact hold

(81) TD - PiS
Edmund Kaczmarek vs Jacek Włosowicz (i)
33,88% - 49,01%
PiS hold

(82) TD - PiS - ND-T
Piotr Dasios vs Jarosław Rusiecki (i) vs Marek Materek
29,52% - 39,47% - 21,77%
PiS hold

(83) NL - PiS - BS
Henryk Milcarz vs Krzysztof Słoń (i) vs Katarzyna Suchańska
29,96% - 40,04% - 15,50%
PiS hold

(84) KO - PiS
Jerzy Wcisła (i) vs Łukasz Kochan
57,04% - 34,79%
Senate Pact hold

(85) TD - PiS
Gustaw Brzezin vs Bogusława Orzechowska (i)
49,06% - 35,28%
Senate Pact flip from PiS

(86) KO - PiS - Ind. (independent incumbent endorsed in 2019 by PiS)
Ewa Kaliszuk vs Zbigniew Purpurowicz vs Lidia Staroń (i)
43,78% - 16,87% - 31,10%
Senate Pact flip from Independent

(87) KO - PiS
Jolanta Piotrowska vs Małgorzata Kopiczko (i)
43,25% - 36,17%
Senate Pact flip from PiS

(88) KO - PiS
Adam Szejnfeld (i) vs Janusz Kubiak
49,81% - 29,87%
Senate Pact hold

(89) TD - PiS
Jan Libicki (i) vs Danuta Nijaka
58,34% - 28,54%
Senate Pact hold

(90) KO - PiS
Waldy Dzikowski vs Dorota Barełkowska
75,07% - 24,93%
Senate Pact hold

(91) KO - PiS
Rafał Grupiński vs Ewa Jemielity
77,64% - 22,36%
Senate Pact hold

(92) TD - PiS
Grzegorz Fedorowicz vs Krzysztof Ostrowski
49,93% - 32,56%
Senate Pact hold

(93) TD - PiS
Anna Majda vs Leszek Galemba
39,02% - 44,06%
PiS hold

(94) KO - PiS
Wojciech Ziemniak (i) vs Dorota Słowińska
49,72% - 30,87%
Senate Pact hold

(95) KO - PiS
Ewa Matecka (i) vs Łukasz Mikołajczyk
44,43% - 36,98%
Senate Pact hold

(96) KO - PiS
Janusz Pęcherz (i) vs Andrzej Wojtyła
40,64% - 37,34%
Senate Pact hold

(97) KO - PiS
Tomasz Grodzki (i) vs Agnieszka Kurzawa
69,61% - 30,39%
Senate Pact hold

(98) KO - PiS
Magdalena Kochan (i) vs Halina Szymańska
62,90% - 37,10%
Senate Pact hold

(99) KO - PiS
Janusz Gromek (i) vs Barbara Aściukiewicz
55,58% - 32,65%
Senate Pact hold

(100) KO - PiS
Stanisław Gawłowski (i) vs Andrzej Jakubowski
42,50% - 26,08%
Senate Pact hold

Margins:
(1) Senate Pact 6,91% over PiS (flip)
(2) Senate Pact 11,46% over PiS (flip)
(3) Senate Pact 2,07% over PiS (flip)
(4) Senate Pact 27,06% over PiS
(5) PiS 0,32 over Senate Pact
(6) Senate Pact 14,78% over PiS
(7) Senate Pact 48,83% over PiS
/8/ Senate Pact 48,28% over PiS
(9) Senate Pact 29,60% over PiS
(10) Senate Pact 9,00% over PiS
(11) Senate Pact 33,96% over PiS
(12) Senate Pact 16,84% over PiS
(13) Senate Pact 9,43% over PiS (flip)
(14) PiS 20,81% over Senate Pact
(15) PiS 20,87% over Senate Pact
(16) Senate Pact 14,56% over PiS
(17) PiS 7,58% over Senate Pact
(18) Senate Pact 3,48% over PiS (flip compared to 2019 parliamentary election)
(19) PiS 27,11% over Senate Pact
(20) Senate Pact 34,36% over PiS
(21) Senate Pact 16,28% over BS (without PiS candidate)
(22) Senate Pact 35,90% over PiS
(23) Senate Pact 43,62% over PiS
(24) Senate Pact 30,42% over PiS
(25) PiS 12,66% over Senate Pact
(26) Senate Pact 15,50% over PiS (flip)
(27) PiS 5,29% over Senate Pact
(28) PiS 6,17% over Senate Pact
(29) PiS 16,02% over Senate Pact
(30) PiS 1,68% over Senate Pact
(31) PiS 2,08% over Senate Pact
(32) Senate Pact 34,12% over PiS
(33) Senate Pact 41,80% over PiS
(34) PiS 11,26% over Senate Pact
(35) PiS 17,22% over Senate Pact
(36) PiS 25,92% over Senate Pact
(37) PiS 25,14% over Senate Pact
(38) Senate Pact 2,20% over PiS (flip)
(39) PiS 5,37% over Senate Pact
(40) Senate Pact 14,51% over PiS
(41) Senate Pact 14,08% over PiS
(42) Senate Pact 39,44% over PiS
(43) Senate Pact 49,40% over PiS
(44) Senate Pact 52,94% over PiS
(45) Senate Pact 44,80% over PiS
(46) PiS 14,54% over Senate Pact
(47) PiS 2,22% over BS (without Senate Pact candidate)
(48) PiS 11,98% over Senate Pact
(49) PiS 11,59% over Senate Pact
(50) PiS 12,48% over Senate Pact
(51) Senate Pact 7,11% over PiS (flip)
(52) Senate Pact 27,03% over PiS
(53) Senate Pact 19,63% over PiS
(54) PiS 19,71% over Senate Pact
(55) PiS 31,89% over Senate Pact
(56) PiS 10,40% over Senate Pact
(57) PiS 25,14% over Senate Pact
(58) PiS 24,90% over Senate Pact
(59) PiS 9,81% over Senate Pact
(60) Senate Pact 11,86% over PiS (flip)
(61) PiS 7,96% over Senate Pact
(62) Senate Pact 28,61% over PiS
(63) Senate Pact 3,96% over PiS
(64) Senate Pact 46,32% over PiS
(65) Senate Pact 48,81% over PiS
(66) Senate Pact 30,40% over Independent (without PiS candidate)
(67) Senate Pact 22,12% over PiS
(68) PiS 6,90% over Senate Pact
(69) Senate Pact 19,14% over PiS
(70) Senate Pact 35,54% over PiS
(71) Senate Pact 28,11% over Independent (without PiS candidate)
(72) Senate Pact 1,42% over BS (without PiS candidate) (flip)
(73) Senate Pact 4,41% over PiS (flip)
(74) Senate Pact 17,76% over PiS (flip)
(75) Senate Pact 24,61% over PiS
(76) Senate Pact 21,10% over PiS
(77) Senate Pact 25,18% over PiS
(78) Senate Pact 14,15% over PiS
(79) PiS 5,31% over Senate Pact
(80) Senate Pact 24,32% over PiS
(81) PiS 15,13% over Senate Pact
(82) PiS 9,95% over Senate Pact
(83) PiS 10,08% over Senate Pact
(84) Senate Pact 22,25% over PiS
(85) Senate Pact 13,78% over PiS (flip)
(86) Senate Pact 12,68% over Independent (PiS candidate 3rd) (flip)
(87) Senate Pact 7,08% over PiS (flip)
(88) Senate Pact 19,94% over PiS
(89) Senate Pact 29,80% over PiS
(90) Senate Pact 50,14% over PiS
(91) Senate Pact 55,28% over PiS
(92) Senate Pact 17,37% over PiS
(93) PiS 5,04% over Senate Pact
(94) Senate Pact 18,85% over PiS
(95) Senate Pact 7,45% over PiS
(96) Senate Pact 3,30% over PiS
(97) Senate Pact 39,22% over PiS
(98) Senate Pact 25,80% over PiS
(99) Senate Pact 32,93% over PiS
(100) Senate Pact 16,42% over PiS

Margins below 5%:
(5) PiS 0,32 over Senate Pact
(72) Senate Pact 1,42% over BS (without PiS candidate) (flip)
(30) PiS 1,68% over Senate Pact
(3) Senate Pact 2,07% over PiS (flip)
(31) PiS 2,08% over Senate Pact
(38) Senate Pact 2,20% over PiS (flip)
(47) PiS 2,22% over BS (without Senate Pact candidate)
(96) Senate Pact 3,30% over PiS
(18) Senate Pact 3,48% over PiS (flip compared to 2019 parliamentary election)
(63) Senate Pact 3,96% over PiS
(73) Senate Pact 4,41% over PiS (flip)

Margins 5-10%:
(93) PiS 5,04% over Senate Pact
(27) PiS 5,29% over Senate Pact
(79) PiS 5,31% over Senate Pact
(39) PiS 5,37% over Senate Pact
(28) PiS 6,17% over Senate Pact
(68) PiS 6,90% over Senate Pact
(1) Senate Pact 6,91% over PiS (flip)
(87) Senate Pact 7,08% over PiS (flip)
(51) Senate Pact 7,11% over PiS (flip)
(95) Senate Pact 7,45% over PiS
(17) PiS 7,58% over Senate Pact
(61) PiS 7,96% over Senate Pact
(10) Senate Pact 9,00% over PiS
(13) Senate Pact 9,43% over PiS (flip)
(59) PiS 9,81% over Senate Pact
(82) PiS 9,95% over Senate Pact

[Epaminondas]

Margins below 5%:
(5) PiS 0,32 over Senate Pact
(72) Senate Pact 1,42% over BS (without PiS candidate) (flip)
(30) PiS 1,68% over Senate Pact
(3) Senate Pact 2,07% over PiS (flip)
(31) PiS 2,08% over Senate Pact
(38) Senate Pact 2,20% over PiS (flip)
(47) PiS 2,22% over BS (without Senate Pact candidate)
(96) Senate Pact 3,30% over PiS
(18) Senate Pact 3,48% over PiS (flip compared to 2019 parliamentary election)
(63) Senate Pact 3,96% over PiS
(73) Senate Pact 4,41% over PiS (flip)

Nice work. I can complete the little map I am making.
The alliance did really well in close constituencies against incumbency, going 7/11 in close races.

If PO had cleaned up in Cracovia and Silesia and the Senate was sitting at 69-31, would the 2/3rds supermajority have tangibly helped?

[palandio]

You can actually see them, to some extent, on satellite maps taken at night and also showing woodland cover and so on as the population density in rural areas added to Poland after 1945 is a lot lower than in the rest of the country: attempts to repopulate the new territories were only properly successful in the cities and conurbations, and largely for the same reasons as those areas continually leaked people from the early 19th century onwards when they were still German; i.e. remote, poor quality soil and so on.

This makes me wonder if areas with particularly high % of those descended pre-1945 Poles (presumably mostly rural) vote divergently from other parts of western Poland.

I'm not sure if Lower Silesia is such an area, but PiS won there even though it's as far west as it gets.

There is one exception that I embezzled in my earlier post, and that is the pre-1945 Poles in the area of Olsztyn, which could be counted either as Mazurians or (if you want to emphasize their Catholicism) Warmians. This group is much smaller than the Upper Silesian group.

We should also distinguish between areas that came to Poland after WWII and areas that came to Poland after WWI.

In areas that came to Poland after WWII there are the Upper Silesian group and the much smaller Warmian-Mazurian group and maybe, maybe a tiny group of Catholics with mixed heritage in Gdańsk, and that's it more or less. There was basically no Polish minority in Lower Silesia and that's why there are almost no pre-1945 Poles or Germans in Lower Silesia today. Same thing for other regions. In Upper Silesia you can still see the old linguistic line on election maps and the areas on the eastern side (where the pre-1945 Poles and Germans live) vote even more "liberal" than the entirely repopulated areas on the western side. Similar picture in the Olsztyn area, although it's unclear to which degree this is just the "liberal agglomeration" effect that can be seen elsewhere in Poland.

Then there's the areas that came to Poland already after WWI. The area as a whole had a clear Polish majority, although there were some exceptions in the area of Bydgoszcz and Toruń. Many Germans opted for leaving towards Germany already in the early twenties ("Optanten") and the rest was expelled after WWII. Since these areas already had a Polish majority, they didn't need to be repopulated systematically. From the maps it seems that these areas vote more like other areas on the Western side of the 1914 line. Some have claimed that this is an effect of the Poznań, Gdańsk and Bydgoszcz agglomerations, but even the rural areas vote far less conservative that comparably rural areas on the Eastern side of the 1914 line. [Edit: These areas also seem to be Third Way strongholds.]

Looking at Greater Poland and Pomerania (in the Polish sense, not the German one which would place Pomerania further to the West) makes me think that 1945 is not the only explanation for the Polish geographic electoral cleavage.

[M0096]

Margins below 5%:
(5) PiS 0,32 over Senate Pact
(72) Senate Pact 1,42% over BS (without PiS candidate) (flip)
(30) PiS 1,68% over Senate Pact
(3) Senate Pact 2,07% over PiS (flip)
(31) PiS 2,08% over Senate Pact
(38) Senate Pact 2,20% over PiS (flip)
(47) PiS 2,22% over BS (without Senate Pact candidate)
(96) Senate Pact 3,30% over PiS
(18) Senate Pact 3,48% over PiS (flip compared to 2019 parliamentary election)
(63) Senate Pact 3,96% over PiS
(73) Senate Pact 4,41% over PiS (flip)

Nice work. I can complete the little map I am making.
The alliance did really well in close constituencies against incumbency, going 7/11 in close races.

If PO had cleaned up in Cracovia and Silesia and the Senate was sitting at 69-31, would the 2/3rds supermajority have tangibly helped?

5th constitency was the only one I predicted it would flip, but PiS held that seat. Split between Gancarz and Dyszewski was very bad.

30th, 31nd and 47th races were totally under the radar. These seats were usually PiS-strongholds.
30th constituency consists of very strong pro-PiS south-eastern part and swingy area closer to Upper Silesia. This time areas near Chrzanów and Oświęcim voted as strong for opposition like south-eastern part for PiS.
31st constituency was strong pro-PiS areas, but Cracow suburbs trended to opposition. The community constisting the biggest town in that constituency voted for PiS candidate, what is pretty strange fact.
When opposition candidate for 47th constituency failed to register, leaders of opposition said that's not a problem, because the constituency wouldn't be competitive. I think electoral tourism from Warsaw, which was usually large, made that constituency competitive.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Is there a map of Poland's regions or sub-regions, showing the combined results of PO+Third Way+Levicsa and PiSS+Confederacy+One Poland?

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

What is the matter with "Nonpartisan Local Government Activists"?

Is it a Polish version of the German "Free Voters", independent libertarian-minded people active at the municipal level?

Free Voters in Germany tend to be politicaly centrist, probably slightly center-right, in Bavaria classical rightwing as of 2023.

What about the Polish "Nonpartisan Local Government Activists"? Wikipedia says center-left and pro-European, can they be added to PO+ThirdWay+Levica in terms of ideology?

[M0096]

Nonpartisan Local Government Activists (BS) is group of local opportunists from Lower Silesia. In almost every constituencies clear majority of their candidates carpetbagged from Lower Silesia. Their only ideology is localism and opportunism. "Democratic opposition" called them as "PiS-ian Troian horse", because they adopted ideology similar to opposition. The only Senator elected from BS in 2011 switched to PiS as quickly as possible. BS is also in coalition with PiS in Lower Silesia local government, where despite being smaller party they hold position of Marshal of Voivodeship (similar to Governor).

I think Nonpartisan Local Government Activists would join coalition with PiS, because they could offer them more than "democratic opposition".

[Keep Calm and ...]

Is there a map of Poland's regions or sub-regions, showing the combined results of PO+Third Way+Levicsa and PiSS+Confederacy+One Poland?

Something like this?

https://twitter.com/wbdata/status/1714673418011050183

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Is there a map of Poland's regions or sub-regions, showing the combined results of PO+Third Way+Levicsa and PiSS+Confederacy+One Poland?

Something like this?

https://twitter.com/wbdata/status/1714673418011050183

Any reason for the big spike in support for the opposition in the very southeastern corner of the country?

[rob in cal]

What role did immigration play in the election, and is Tusk supportive of  a more liberal stance on the issue. 

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Is there a map of Poland's regions or sub-regions, showing the combined results of PO+Third Way+Levicsa and PiSS+Confederacy+One Poland?

Something like this?

https://twitter.com/wbdata/status/1714673418011050183

Any reason for the big spike in support for the opposition in the very southeastern corner of the country?

Bieszczady Mountains and Cisna commune - tourists and people who decided just to move there recently or less recently.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Is there a map of Poland's regions or sub-regions, showing the combined results of PO+Third Way+Levicsa and PiSS+Confederacy+One Poland?

Something like this?

Yes, thanks a lot.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Nonpartisan Local Government Activists (BS) is group of local opportunists from Lower Silesia. In almost every constituencies clear majority of their candidates carpetbagged from Lower Silesia. Their only ideology is localism and opportunism. "Democratic opposition" called them as "PiS-ian Troian horse", because they adopted ideology similar to opposition. The only Senator elected from BS in 2011 switched to PiS as quickly as possible. BS is also in coalition with PiS in Lower Silesia local government, where despite being smaller party they hold position of Marshal of Voivodeship (similar to Governor).

I think Nonpartisan Local Government Activists would join coalition with PiS, because they could offer them more than "democratic opposition".

If someone would create a map between the two coalitions, would it then be OK to group them together with PiS+Confederacy+One Poland+BS?

PiS+Confederacy+One Poland+BS = nationalism/populism/anti-immigrant/conspiracy parties
PO+Third Way+Left = pro-European parties

[Antonio the Sixth]

Shame I had to miss this election because it's been one true ray of hope amid dark times, but I still wanted to thank everyone who contributed maps and analysis to this thread as I've been following it quite assiduously. Poland is a country I have a lot of affection with and a crucial player in Europe, and it's a relief to know that the forces of reaction can be defeated (amid record-high turnout, no less). Hopefully Italy is next!

[Torrain]

I’m seeing some reports that Duda is delaying government formation. Any insight into this? Here’s the relevant passage from the Guardian:

[Logical]

Duda has decided to waste everyone's time by giving Morawiecki the first shot at forming government.

[President Johnson]

Duda has decided to waste everyone's time by giving Morawiecki the first shot at forming government.

Of course, he's a member of PiS and wants to drag this out.

[MRCVzla]

KO, PL2050, PSL and Lewica signed today their coalition agreement, Tusk PM, Kosiniak-Kamysz (PSL) and Gawkowski (Lewica) will be Deputy PM, Hołownia (PL2050) and Czarzasty (Lewica) may turn chairs at the Marshal/Speaker of Sejm (Szymon the first two years), KO gets the Marshal/Speaker of the Senate but will also change in the middle of the term. Lewica party member Razem it's likely to stay in confidence and support rather than join the government.  The complete composition of the cabinet it's still unknown until Morawiecki' encharge fails.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Poland/status/1723004213511241761

Brief summary by this Twitter/X thread:
https://twitter.com/anietotylkoja/status/1722981668091269334

Security
-State security based on three pillars: reconstruction of international relations, Poland's strong position in the EU, and in NATO
-Army equipped with modern hardware (continuation of the Law and Justice party's rearmament policy)
-Civil defence reconstruction.

Judiciary
-Courts free from political pressure
-Legitimacy of the judiciary and the constitutional courts
-National Council of the Judiciary and the Supreme Court in apolitical shape
-Reduced time and lower costs of court proceedings

Health
-Increased spending on public health care system
-Debt relief mechanisms for hospitals
-Universal psychological and psychiatric assistance funded by the state
-Increased role of Primary Health Care facilities
-Shortened queues for specialist doctors

Education
-Increased spending on education
-Healthy food in school cafeterias
-Curriculum reform, increased emphasis on English
-Less homework for kids
-Psychological care in every school
-More autonomy for schools
-Politics out of school, more emphasis on values such as modern patriotism, openness, human rights and the richness of Polish culture
-Science and higher education require changes that ensure, among other things, depoliticization, restoration of university autonomy and higher levels of funding.

Women's rights
- Constitutional Court's 2020 verdict on restricting abortion overturned
-Financial support for couples planning to have a baby by funding the IVF procedure and full access to free prenatal testing
-Access to free anaesthesia (during childbirth, I guess)
-Expansion of nurseries
-Additional financial support for women returning to work after maternity leave

Equality
-No to hate speech and acts of agression
-Protection of sexual minorities from hate speech and acts of aggression

Climate
-A stable legal framework to support a (fair) energy transition
-Increased share of renewable energy sources in electricity generation  
-Construction of nuclear power plants
-Expansion and modernization of transmission and distribution networks
- EU ETS stays, and will be used to finance the green transition
-Low energy prices to households and businesses based on healthy competition mechanisms and clear market rules (prosumer energy)

Environment
-20 percent the most valuable forest areas will be excluded from logging
-Exports of unprocessed wood will be restricted
-Social oversight of forests
-Marsh and peatland restoration program
-The area of national parks will be increased
-Renaturalization and constant supervision of river water quality

Economy
-Stable, friendly and fair tax system
-Tax cuts for working people to increase labor force participation and support families.
-Restoration of transparency over state finances
-Depoliticization of State-Owned Companies
- Introduction of clear recruitment criteria for management positions in state-owned companies
-Construction of new logistics infrastructure for farmers

Culture
-Free, depoliticized culture
-Repair and depoliticization of state-owned public media
-Separation of Church and State!
-Depoliticization of the army
- Central Anti-Corruption Bureau will be abolished, and its resources and powers transferred to other institutions

Social policy
-Housing availability will be increased
-Efficient and accessible public transport for all (govt will actively support the restoration of bus services and the development of the country's rail network)
-Financial support for disabled people and pensioners

State, political system
-Decentralization of the state
-Restoration of broad autonomy for local governments
-Money from the Next Generation EU recovery plan for local governments
- Increased involvement of NGOs in social processes

[Oryxslayer]

KO, PL2050, PSL and Lewica signed today their coalition agreement, Tusk PM, Kosiniak-Kamysz (PSL) and Gawkowski (Lewica) will be Deputy PM, Hołownia (PL2050) and Czarzasty (Lewica) may turn chairs at the Marshal/Speaker of Sejm (Szymon the first two years), KO gets the Marshal/Speaker of the Senate but will also change in the middle of the term. Lewica party member Razem it's likely to stay in confidence and support rather than join the government.  The complete composition of the cabinet it's still unknown until Morawiecki' encharge fails.

Is there any discussion at all about how the coalition will handle the Presidential contest - aka running alone or together? Cause I have had a theory for a while that Hołownia wants to be the standard bearer of a united front. Him getting a role that rotates out in 2025 doesn't exactly discourage this speculation.

[M0096]

Is there any discussion at all about how the coalition will handle the Presidential contest - aka running alone or together? Cause I have had a theory for a while that Hołownia wants to be the standard bearer of a united front. Him getting a role that rotates out in 2025 doesn't exactly discourage this speculation.

Donald Tusk said that single "democratic" candidate for President is very unlikely, because presidential candidate needs majority of votes to be elected. "Democratic" parties will use first round of presidential election as primary, because it's almost impossible not to make "democratic" candidate into run-off.

Hołownia's term as Marshal of Sejm expires on 13th November 2025, 3 months after start of new President's term. I think Hołownia will run for President, while holding office of Marshal of Sejm, but the most likely "democratic" candidate who would be in run-off is Warsaw mayor and 2020 presidential candidate Rafał Trzaskowski.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Most of this program looks fantastic, and a lot less neoliberal than Tusk's last term in power.

[Storr]

KO, PL2050, PSL and Lewica signed today their coalition agreement, Tusk PM, Kosiniak-Kamysz (PSL) and Gawkowski (Lewica) will be Deputy PM, Hołownia (PL2050) and Czarzasty (Lewica) may turn chairs at the Marshal/Speaker of Sejm (Szymon the first two years), KO gets the Marshal/Speaker of the Senate but will also change in the middle of the term. Lewica party member Razem it's likely to stay in confidence and support rather than join the government.  The complete composition of the cabinet it's still unknown until Morawiecki' encharge fails.

[snip]
Economy
-Stable, friendly and fair tax system
-Tax cuts for working people to increase labor force participation and support families.
-Restoration of transparency over state finances
-Depoliticization of State-Owned Companies
- Introduction of clear recruitment criteria for management positions in state-owned companies
-Construction of new logistics infrastructure for farmers

[snip]

Notably (for me, anyway) is the absence Euro adoption being mentioned. Despite not at all being a surprise, as someone who is in favor of European integration, it is disappointing to not see it in the coalition agreement.

A 2/3rds Sejm majority is needed to change the constitution which currently establishes the złoty as the national currency. Of course, the coalition does not have such a majority. Poland can't even join ERM-2 (the "waiting room" countries need to join before adopting the Euro) until that constitutional change is made.

That's not even touching on whether or not the coalition's partners support euro adoption. Tusk has been very careful to avoid taking a stance (publicly at least) on the issue due to at best mildly favorable but divided public opinion on the issue.