Polish Politics and Elections

[Flyersfan232]

Is there any discussion at all about how the coalition will handle the Presidential contest - aka running alone or together? Cause I have had a theory for a while that Hołownia wants to be the standard bearer of a united front. Him getting a role that rotates out in 2025 doesn't exactly discourage this speculation.

Donald Tusk said that single "democratic" candidate for President is very unlikely, because presidential candidate needs majority of votes to be elected. "Democratic" parties will use first round of presidential election as primary, because it's almost impossible not to make "democratic" candidate into run-off.

Hołownia's term as Marshal of Sejm expires on 13th November 2025, 3 months after start of new President's term. I think Hołownia will run for President, while holding office of Marshal of Sejm, but the most likely "democratic" candidate who would be in run-off is Warsaw mayor and 2020 presidential candidate Rafał Trzaskowski.

who is likely for pis and conferation?

[Flyersfan232]

KO, PL2050, PSL and Lewica signed today their coalition agreement, Tusk PM, Kosiniak-Kamysz (PSL) and Gawkowski (Lewica) will be Deputy PM, Hołownia (PL2050) and Czarzasty (Lewica) may turn chairs at the Marshal/Speaker of Sejm (Szymon the first two years), KO gets the Marshal/Speaker of the Senate but will also change in the middle of the term. Lewica party member Razem it's likely to stay in confidence and support rather than join the government.  The complete composition of the cabinet it's still unknown until Morawiecki' encharge fails.

[snip]
Economy
-Stable, friendly and fair tax system
-Tax cuts for working people to increase labor force participation and support families.
-Restoration of transparency over state finances
-Depoliticization of State-Owned Companies
- Introduction of clear recruitment criteria for management positions in state-owned companies
-Construction of new logistics infrastructure for farmers

[snip]

Notably (for me, anyway) is the absence Euro adoption being mentioned. Despite not at all being a surprise, as someone who is in favor of European integration, it is disappointing to not see it in the coalition agreement.

A 2/3rds Sejm majority is needed to change the constitution which currently establishes the złoty as the national currency. Of course, the coalition does not have such a majority. Poland can't even join ERM-2 (the "waiting room" countries need to join before adopting the Euro) until that constitutional change is made.

That's not even touching on whether or not the coalition's partners support euro adoption. Tusk has been very careful to avoid taking a stance (publicly at least) on the issue due to at best mildly favorable but divided public opinion on the issue.

in fighting happen to a point  between the left and the two other coalition where the left decisde to leave could tusk try to make a deal with confederation?

[M0096]

For Konfederacja the most likely presidential nominee would be Sławomir Mentzen (New Hope) or Krzysztof Bosak (National Movement, 2020 presidential nominee). There is risk that Konfederacja disintegrate before presidential election, then both Mentzen and Bosak would run.

PiS will hold leadership election next year. If Kaczyński retires, there is high probability of disintegration of PiS. I think Elżbieta Witek (Marshal of Sejm), Beata Szydło (former PM) and Mateusz Morawiecki (current PM) won't be PiS nominee. If PiS survives in its entirety, the most likely nominee is leader of PiS (when Kaczyński retires) or some young politician e.g. Waldemar Buda (Minister of Economic Development and Technology), Kacper Płażyński (member of Sejm from Pomerania) or Marcin Horała (deputy minister of Funds and Regional Policy). Zbigniew Ziobro (Minister of Justice and leader of Soveraign Poland) is likely nominee of far-right wing of PiS, in case PiS collapses.

[DavidB.]

Anything on immigration in the new coalition agreement?

[M0096]

Anything on immigration in the new coalition agreement?

Coalition agreement doesn't include anything about immigration.

[M0096]

Szymon Hołownia (leader of PL2050) elected Marshal of Sejm (speaker)

Szymon Hołownia - 266 votes (KO, PL2050, PSL, New Left, Konfederacja)
Elżbieta Witek (incumbent) - 193 votes (PiS)

[Sir Mohamed]

Szymon Hołownia (leader of PL2050) elected Marshal of Sejm (speaker)

Szymon Hołownia - 266 votes (KO, PL2050, PSL, New Left, Konfederacja)
Elżbieta Witek (incumbent) - 193 votes (PiS)

Why is Konferacja against PiS and also ruling out any potential coalition? They're to the right of PiS, aren't they?

[Oryxslayer]

Szymon Hołownia (leader of PL2050) elected Marshal of Sejm (speaker)

Szymon Hołownia - 266 votes (KO, PL2050, PSL, New Left, Konfederacja)
Elżbieta Witek (incumbent) - 193 votes (PiS)

Why is Konferacja against PiS and also ruling out any potential coalition? They're to the right of PiS, aren't they?

Konferacja is against PiS on principles, but also against the opposition parties for the same reasons. Their brand(s) of far-rightism are like that. But here I guess they are just acting against PiS, cause its a vote on persons,  rather than in favor of any policy in particular.

[M0096]

Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska (former Marshal of Sejm) elected Marshal of Senate.

Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska (PO) - 66 votes (Senate Pact: KO, PL2050, PSL, New Left and Independents)
Marek Pęk (PiS) - 33 votes (PiS)

[M0096]

3 members of European Parliament were elected to Sejm.
Very few candidates are willing to take over their seats for half a year.

MEP elected to Sejm:
Zbigniew Kuźmiuk (PiS-ECR) - constituency no. 5 (Masovian voivodeship without Warsaw aglomeration)
Krzysztof Hetman (PSL-EPP) - constituency no. 8 (Lublin voivodeship)
Bartosz Arłukowicz (PO-EPP) - constituency no. 13 (Lubusz and West Pomerania voivodeships)

Constituency no. 5 PiS-list - 2 seats
Adam Bielan (incumbent)
Zbigniew Kuźmiuk (incumbent elected to Sejm)
Maria Koc (elected to Sejm)
Maciej Małecki (elected to Sejm)
Anna Kwiecień (elected to Sejm)
Arkadiusz Czartoryski (elected to Sejm)
Rafał Romanowski (likely new MEP; lost reelection to Sejm)

Constituency no. 8 KE-list (united opposition) - 1 seat
Krzysztof Hetman (incumbent elected to Sejm)
Joanna Mucha (elected to Sejm)
Riad Haidar (died on 25th May 2021)
Włodzimierz Karpiński (likely new MEP; https://brusselssignal.eu/2023/11/former-tusk-minister-jailed-for-corruption-set-to-be-freed-to-become-mep/)

Constituency no. 13 KE-list (united opposition) - 2 seats
Bartosz Arłukowicz (incumbent elected to Sejm)
Bogusław Liberadzki (incumbent)
Elżbieta Polak (elected to Sejm)
Jarosław Rzepa (elected to Sejm)
Jolanta Fedak (died on 31st December 2020)
Witold Pahl (likely new MEP)

PSL lost 1 seat and PO net gained 1 seat.

[Flyersfan232]

Szymon Hołownia (leader of PL2050) elected Marshal of Sejm (speaker)

Szymon Hołownia - 266 votes (KO, PL2050, PSL, New Left, Konfederacja)
Elżbieta Witek (incumbent) - 193 votes (PiS)

Why is Konferacja against PiS and also ruling out any potential coalition? They're to the right of PiS, aren't they?

Konferacja is against PiS on principles, but also against the opposition parties for the same reasons. Their brand(s) of far-rightism are like that. But here I guess they are just acting against PiS, cause its a vote on persons,  rather than in favor of any policy in particular.

if things with the sld and po and td go down causing sld to leave government could po and td work with kon?

[Logical]

Szymon Hołownia (leader of PL2050) elected Marshal of Sejm (speaker)

Szymon Hołownia - 266 votes (KO, PL2050, PSL, New Left, Konfederacja)
Elżbieta Witek (incumbent) - 193 votes (PiS)

Why is Konferacja against PiS and also ruling out any potential coalition? They're to the right of PiS, aren't they?

Konferacja is against PiS on principles, but also against the opposition parties for the same reasons. Their brand(s) of far-rightism are like that. But here I guess they are just acting against PiS, cause its a vote on persons,  rather than in favor of any policy in particular.

if things with the sld and po and td go down causing sld to leave government could po and td work with kon?

No

[M0096]

Due to constructive vote of no confidence, more likely would be minority government, when coalition collapses. I don't think that could happen soon. In my opinion the broad coalition government will be more popular that previous Tusk cabinets. Many people in Poland think that PO-PSL coalition was too much right-wing (classic liberal) on economic issues and addition of leftist demands might be politically beneficial.

[President Johnson]

This is just insanity: Duda wants to appoint Morawieki as prime minister today and swear-in another PiS cabinet, which subsequently has to win a confidence vote in the Sejm within 14 days. Of course, they're inevitably going to lose such a floor vote as PiS only holds 194 seats, versus 248 for Tusk's coalition.

It seems like a new tradition that right-wing governments and heads of state just no longer accept election defeats. At this point it should actually be considered to remove Duda from office. He's not acting as normal head of state but just a partisan hack that tries to keep a bunch of losers in power.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1729072716697735503

[CumbrianLefty]

How can he be removed from office, though?

But yes this is a product of the current right wing conceit that they and they alone represent "THE PEOPLE" and all their opponents are part of an illegitimate conspiratorial "blob". Election defeats for them are just the result of this sinister "blob" brainwashing voters, which makes their choice invalid.

[MRCVzla]

This is just insanity: Duda wants to appoint Morawieki as prime minister today and swear-in another PiS cabinet, which subsequently has to win a confidence vote in the Sejm within 14 days. Of course, they're inevitably going to lose such a floor vote as PiS only holds 194 seats, versus 248 for Tusk's coalition.

It seems like a new tradition that right-wing governments and heads of state just no longer accept election defeats. At this point it should actually be considered to remove Duda from office. He's not acting as normal head of state but just a partisan hack that tries to keep a bunch of losers in power.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1729072716697735503

Portugal 2015 vibes unironically

[M0096]

How can he be removed from office, though?

To remove President from the office, we need 2/3 majority in both houses of Parliament (and evidence of crime committed by President) --> impossible

The President is acting in accordance of law, but in bad faith. Almost everyone in Poland expects swearing in of new "real" government on 13th December (42nd anniversary of declaring martial laws by communists).

The (temporary) government sworn in today consists of only 2 ministers from previous government (Defence - Mariusz Błaszczak and Technology & Development - Marlena Maląg former minister of Family and Social Policy). Majority of new (temporary) ministers are PiS backbenchers.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/euronews/status/1729204807947194769

[Antonio the Sixth]

Almost everyone in Poland expects swearing in of new "real" government on 13th December (42nd anniversary of declaring martial laws by communists).

Wouldn't the coalition want to try to avoid that symbolism if they can? Giorgia Meloni was definitely nervous about her inauguration getting close to the 100th anniversary of the March on Rome. I guess she had a lot more control over the timing of the process given Italian institutional norms, though.

[M0096]

The last possible date when Morawiecki's government vote of confidence could happen is 11th December. President has foreign visit to Switzerland scheduled on 12th December, so he exluded swearing of potential government that day. On 14th December starts EU council summit where PM (not usurper) should be, so the only date of swearing in is 13th December.

[Sir Mohamed]

With Duda apparently acting as full PiS partisan hack, how likely is it that he just derails the entire agenda of the new govt? Doesn't he have veto power over bills? He could just refuse to resign every law that undoes a major PiS policy. At least until his term ends in 2025, the Tusk Admin could struggle with getting things done?

[Oryxslayer]

With Duda apparently acting as full PiS partisan hack, how likely is it that he just derails the entire agenda of the new govt? Doesn't he have veto power over bills? He could just refuse to resign every law that undoes a major PiS policy. At least until his term ends in 2025, the Tusk Admin could struggle with getting things done?

Divided government is not US exclusive.

Which is why the coalition's policy towards the 2025 contest is so important, at least to me.

[Duke of York]

With Duda apparently acting as full PiS partisan hack, how likely is it that he just derails the entire agenda of the new govt? Doesn't he have veto power over bills? He could just refuse to resign every law that undoes a major PiS policy. At least until his term ends in 2025, the Tusk Admin could struggle with getting things done?

yes the Polish President can veto. however, a veto can be overruled by a three-fifths majority vote in the presence of at least half of the statutory number of members of the Sejm (230). Before signing a bill into law, the president can also ask the Constitutional Tribunal to verify its compliance with the Constitution, which in practice bears a decisive influence on the legislative process.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Almost everyone in Poland expects swearing in of new "real" government on 13th December (42nd anniversary of declaring martial laws by communists).

Wouldn't the coalition want to try to avoid that symbolism if they can? Giorgia Meloni was definitely nervous about her inauguration getting close to the 100th anniversary of the March on Rome. I guess she had a lot more control over the timing of the process given Italian institutional norms, though.

Well I think a big part of that was that Meloni was accused of being a fascist. Literally no one aside from the most blatant hacks think either PiS or PO are Communists, so it wouldn't be as applicable.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Almost everyone in Poland expects swearing in of new "real" government on 13th December (42nd anniversary of declaring martial laws by communists).

Wouldn't the coalition want to try to avoid that symbolism if they can? Giorgia Meloni was definitely nervous about her inauguration getting close to the 100th anniversary of the March on Rome. I guess she had a lot more control over the timing of the process given Italian institutional norms, though.

Well I think a big part of that was that Meloni was accused of being a fascist. Literally no one aside from the most blatant hacks think either PiS or PO are Communists, so it wouldn't be as applicable.

I mean, all indications suggest PiS is nothing but blatant hacks, and they literally tried to smear Tusk as a foreign agent on several occasions, so smearing him as a closet commie doesn't feel too out of character.