Polish Politics and Elections

[CumbrianLefty]

Dare one hope that perhaps Poland is going to escape the worst of Orbanisation after all?

[CumbrianLefty]

Still, that this has happened is nonetheless mildly encouraging.

[CumbrianLefty]

So a slight sign that the Orbanisation of Poland might not be unstoppable?

[CumbrianLefty]

It's the lowest (percentage wise) point for the main left-wing candidate in history of direct elections.

1990: Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz (SdRP): 9.2%
1995: Aleksander Kwaśniewski (SLD): 35.1 (1st round), 51.7 (2nd round)
2000: Aleksander Kwaśniewski (SLD): 53.9%
2005: Marek Borowski (SDPL): 10.3%
2010: Grzegorz Napieralski (SLD): 13.68%
2015: Magdalena Ogórek (SLD): 2.38%
2020: Robert Biedroń (Left): 2.21%

Given that the left polled double digits in the most recent parliamentary elections, it is clear many of those votes went elsewhere - to the second and third placed candidates presumably?

[CumbrianLefty]

Polls released after the first round result are evenly split. About half show Duda winning narrowly and have show Trzcsfdsvwhatever winning narrowly. I actually think Duda may lose.

Which side's voters are rated more likely to turn out?

[CumbrianLefty]

I was expecting Duda to win this almost routinely after the first round, so that is maybe interesting.

[CumbrianLefty]

Purely anecdotal turnout reports are genuinely amongst the most useless and unreliable things going.

But yes, I too think that Duda will sneak it.

[CumbrianLefty]

Ah well, the bad guys win again.

[CumbrianLefty]

Ah well, the bad guys win again.

well not really they are both right-wingers. and it's always nice to see disgusting donald tusk on the losing side.

Ahem, but I do actually know this.

However even Tusk is preferable to Orban(ism) at the end of the day.

[CumbrianLefty]

Restricting "ritual slaughter" seems directed at Muslims and singles out Jews as well, though I guess its fine provided domestic production of such meat is allowed.

Given that this is Poland, the latter might be at least as much the target as the former?

[CumbrianLefty]

Well that's modestly encouraging. Poland may yet avoid fully going the way of Hungary.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well that's modestly encouraging. Poland may yet avoid fully going the way of Hungary.

Hungary’s abortion laws are (broadly) in line with those of many of the more restrictive (Italy, Ireland etc) Western European countries, and although there has been plenty of ‘pro-natalist’ rhetoric from Fidesz, they’ve not done anything to restrict abortion that is comparable to the efforts of PiS on this issue. So maybe you should actually be worrying about Hungary going the way of Poland!

I meant this in a more general sense, sorry for not expressing things better. The point about this news is that it is further evidence that Poland retains a vigorous and healthy civil society. Whereas alas in Hungary, this appears as beat down and subservient as most other things under Orban.

[CumbrianLefty]

How can he be removed from office, though?

But yes this is a product of the current right wing conceit that they and they alone represent "THE PEOPLE" and all their opponents are part of an illegitimate conspiratorial "blob". Election defeats for them are just the result of this sinister "blob" brainwashing voters, which makes their choice invalid.

[CumbrianLefty]

Another reason why not having diplomats appointed by the government of the day is a good thing.