Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[lfromnj]

Has Youngkin done any rallies recently in SWVA?

[wbrocks67]

I will say - whether it's a true test of 'enthusiasm', or just Youngkin team being VERY good at putting signs up everywhere - the GOP is much better than Dems at getting their signs out.

Even in a very blue area in my hometown in Montco, the local GOP always manages to get their signs out first, and there's always way more of them. I'm always intensely frustrated at our local Dems who wait until the GOP puts theres up to start putting theirs up. You'd think the ground game for Dems would be better in that area.

[ElectionsGuy]

Wtf bruh!!!!!

https://twitter.com/lion_politics/status/1453844564448579584?s=20

very bold move by fox

Its one thing to claim glenn youngkin will win but a blowout not even the Trafalgar Group is willing to go that far...

fox is truly on their own island on this one because not a single other poll, including the ones that came out yesterday showed anybody leading by more than 1 or 3 points

bottom line either their results will be correct on election day or fox news is about to become the biggest joke in polling history

They were already a joke. They had massive, 5-15 point misses in multiple states in 2018 and 2020.

People ignored them and continued saying Fox was a "quality poll".

[ElectionsGuy]

Q Pac is garbage.  Nobody should even give them clicks by looking at the result.

Well, they certainly have been, but ever since the election, they've had some of Biden's worst numbers among pollsters, and best numbers for Republicans. It's been a very interesting turnaround for them, so I'm interested just because of that. BTW- "interesting" is not me saying they're good now. They could be underestimating Democrats now, idk.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Has Youngkin done any rallies recently in SWVA?

Yes

[ElectionsGuy]

Let's just put the 2017 thing to bed once and for all.

This was the polling in 2017



This is the polling in 2021



Far more consistent (with Fox exception), more narrow, and less undecideds. And more importantly, the fundamentals of the race support a narrow McAuliffe win, rather than a Biden-esque one.

[Non Swing Voter]

BREAKING.  There is rain in NOVA today.  Terry is done for.

[It’s so Joever]

Unpopular opinion: It is just as likely that TMAC wins by a greater than Northam margin as it is that Youngkin wins.

[Chips]

Let's just put the 2017 thing to bed once and for all.

This was the polling in 2017



This is the polling in 2021



Far more consistent (with Fox exception), more narrow, and less undecideds. And more importantly, the fundamentals of the race support a narrow McAuliffe win, rather than a Biden-esque one.

I wouldn't count the chickens before they hatch but I agree that there's probably a better chance of Youngkin winning than McAuliffe winning by Northam/Biden margins.

[Non Swing Voter]

Unpopular opinion: It is just as likely that TMAC wins by a greater than Northam margin as it is that Youngkin wins.

Unlikely he wins by a greater margin but it's highly unlikely Youngkin wins.  It's amazing that people are posting a list of polls that are all blue with FoxNews (of all pollsters) as a giant outlier, thinking that's evidence of a Youngkin win.  Especially when the fundamentals of the state are terrible for the GOP.

[wbrocks67]

It should also be said that we got many more polls in the home stretch in 2017. We really haven't gotten that many this year.

[Pollster]

Forgive me if this comparison has been made already, but I'm starting to notice incredibly eerie similarities between this race and IA-GOV 2018.

Both states voted for the incumbent President by roughly the same margins and had been trending aggressively in their respective partisanship's direction for a decent amount of time despite recent histories of competitiveness. Both incumbent parties nominated candidates who were asterisked incumbents (Reynolds an ascended lieutenant governor, McAuliffe the closest thing VA had to an eligible incumbent) who were generally competent and well-qualified but not particularly energizing. Both opposition parties nominated wealthy businessmen with no political records and malleable political identities who ran generally innocuous campaigns that walked a very delicate tightrope between nationalization and localization: avoided becoming political celebrities/national cause celebres for their party while still thoroughly engaging and energizing their local base. The national environment generally favored the opposition party but partisan polarization remained quite high.

Reynolds won by about 3 points, which is probably not an unreasonable prediction for McAuliffe at this point, with McAuliffe possibly doing slightly better because VA is a hair bluer than IA is R (and has far more racial diversity and subsequent inelasticity in its Democratic base).

[Chips]

I have a question. If McAuliffe does lose, what do you think will have been the biggest reasons as to why he lost?

Here's my 5 reasons as to why McAuliffe might lose.

#1. Biden's unpopularity.

It can definitely be said that Biden is in a much weaker position in terms of his approval ratings than he was even three short months ago. Biden is underwater in several Virginia polls as well which might indicate Biden's national popularity has carried over to The Old Dominion State. If McAuliffe loses, part of that may very well be because Youngkin was able to tie him to Biden successfully.

#2. Youngkin has been a relatively decent candidate and has run a good campaign for a Republican in Virginia.

If Amanda Chase was the GOP nominee, we would likely not be having discussions about this race being close. Youngkin became the nominee though and he can be stated to have done a relatively decent job at appealing to both Trumpers by advocating for many of Trump's ideas and moderate Republicans/independents by speaking in at least a slightly more reserved tone on the campaign trail.

#3. Youngkin might win out on the education issue.

The issue of education has arguably become the biggest issue of this race and Youngkin has been doing fairly well on the issue of education in most polls. If more voters end up trusting Youngkin more than McAuliffe on election day on the issue of education, that should bode well for his chances.

#4. Turnout

If Youngkin wins, It may be partly so due to having a relatively high rural turnout with McAuliffe having a relatively lackluster turnout in urban areas and suburbs.

#5. McAuliffe might simply be a rather lackluster candidate.

While yes, McAuliffe was previously governor. It can be argued that he doesn't have that much of enthusiastic supporters. The same arguably cannot be said for Youngkin who definitely seems to have a pretty loud and energetic base of support. In this sense, it could be seen as a mini-2016 presidential election. Clinton was leading in most of the polls but suffered from a lackluster turnout while Trump's base was rather energetic for him and if McAuliffe loses, I'm sure these comparisons might well be brought up.

If McAuliffe does lose, I think it will have been due to a combination of these five factors.

[gerritcole]

I’ll take mccaullife plus 2

[Virginiá]

#1, and not particularly close

Also note that the Turnout option is connected to #1

[Sir Mohamed]

I have a question. If McAuliffe does lose, what do you think will have been the biggest reasons as to why he lost?

Here's my 5 reasons as to why McAuliffe might lose.

#1. Biden's unpopularity.

It can definitely be said that Biden is in a much weaker position in terms of his approval ratings than he was even three short months ago. Biden is underwater in several Virginia polls as well which might indicate Biden's national popularity has carried over to The Old Dominion State. If McAuliffe loses, part of that may very well be because Youngkin was able to tie him to Biden successfully.

#2. Youngkin has been a relatively decent candidate and has run a good campaign for a Republican in Virginia.

If Amanda Chase was the GOP nominee, we would likely not be having discussions about this race being close. Youngkin became the nominee though and he can be stated to have done a relatively decent job at appealing to both Trumpers by advocating for many of Trump's ideas and moderate Republicans/independents by speaking in at least a slightly more reserved tone on the campaign trail.

#3. Youngkin might win out on the education issue.

The issue of education has arguably become the biggest issue of this race and Youngkin has been doing fairly well on the issue of education in most polls. If more voters end up trusting Youngkin more than McAuliffe on election day on the issue of education, that should bode well for his chances.

#4. Turnout

If Youngkin wins, It may be partly so due to having a relatively high rural turnout with McAuliffe having a relatively lackluster turnout in urban areas and suburbs.

#5. McAuliffe might simply be a rather lackluster candidate.

While yes, McAuliffe was previously governor. It can be argued that he doesn't have that much of enthusiastic supporters. The same arguably cannot be said for Youngkin who definitely seems to have a pretty loud and energetic base of support. In this sense, it could be seen as a mini-2016 presidential election. Clinton was leading in most of the polls but suffered from a lackluster turnout while Trump's base was rather energetic for him and if McAuliffe loses, I'm sure these comparisons might well be brought up.

If McAuliffe does lose, I think it will have been due to a combination of these five factors.

Good take.

#4 is the most important point in my opinion. If McAuliffe actually ends up losing this race, it will be due to low turnout from Dem and D-leaning voters across the board. That would continue the pattern that voters of the sitting prez become far less motivated to vote, while voters of the opposition are out there to vote against the current admin. We also saw this at the beginning of the Obama and Trump tenures.

That said, it says nothing about the next presidential election. Obama still got reelected and Trump came closer than polls and previous election returns suggested. I still expect Atlas to completely freak out over a Youngkin victory and declare Biden and/or Harris 2024 completely DOA.

[Mr.Phips]

I have a question. If McAuliffe does lose, what do you think will have been the biggest reasons as to why he lost?

Here's my 5 reasons as to why McAuliffe might lose.

#1. Biden's unpopularity.

It can definitely be said that Biden is in a much weaker position in terms of his approval ratings than he was even three short months ago. Biden is underwater in several Virginia polls as well which might indicate Biden's national popularity has carried over to The Old Dominion State. If McAuliffe loses, part of that may very well be because Youngkin was able to tie him to Biden successfully.

#2. Youngkin has been a relatively decent candidate and has run a good campaign for a Republican in Virginia.

If Amanda Chase was the GOP nominee, we would likely not be having discussions about this race being close. Youngkin became the nominee though and he can be stated to have done a relatively decent job at appealing to both Trumpers by advocating for many of Trump's ideas and moderate Republicans/independents by speaking in at least a slightly more reserved tone on the campaign trail.

#3. Youngkin might win out on the education issue.

The issue of education has arguably become the biggest issue of this race and Youngkin has been doing fairly well on the issue of education in most polls. If more voters end up trusting Youngkin more than McAuliffe on election day on the issue of education, that should bode well for his chances.

#4. Turnout

If Youngkin wins, It may be partly so due to having a relatively high rural turnout with McAuliffe having a relatively lackluster turnout in urban areas and suburbs.

#5. McAuliffe might simply be a rather lackluster candidate.

While yes, McAuliffe was previously governor. It can be argued that he doesn't have that much of enthusiastic supporters. The same arguably cannot be said for Youngkin who definitely seems to have a pretty loud and energetic base of support. In this sense, it could be seen as a mini-2016 presidential election. Clinton was leading in most of the polls but suffered from a lackluster turnout while Trump's base was rather energetic for him and if McAuliffe loses, I'm sure these comparisons might well be brought up.

If McAuliffe does lose, I think it will have been due to a combination of these five factors.

Good take.

#4 is the most important point in my opinion. If McAuliffe actually ends up losing this race, it will be due to low turnout from Dem and D-leaning voters across the board. That would continue the pattern that voters of the sitting prez become far less motivated to vote, while voters of the opposition are out there to vote against the current admin. We also saw this at the beginning of the Obama and Trump tenures.

That said, it says nothing about the next presidential election. Obama still got reelected and Trump came closer than polls and previous election returns suggested. I still expect Atlas to completely freak out over a Youngkin victory and declare Biden and/or Harris 2024 completely DOA.

Who cares about the next Presidential election if Dems are a super minority in Congress and can’t get anything done.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/decunningham2/status/1454091644844785667?s=20

[roxas11]

https://twitter.com/decunningham2/status/1454091644844785667?s=20

That fox new poll still stick out like a sore thumb

There may be a trend, but the fox poll looks like it came from a completely different universe

[fhtagn]

For what it is worth, while canvassing in Vienna, VA, a few people did bring up fear of Tmac bringing back pandemic restrictions if Covid cases shoot up again.

Yes yes yes.. Vienna may be wealthy suburbia like most of you all live in.. but a lot of business owners live in Vienna and if you drive the streets of Vienna.. mom and pop and non chain eateries are everywhere.

Oddly.. I did not hear anything about the school board sexual assault but I think that throws Loudoun into single digit.

Virginia's vaccination rate is pretty good, isn't it? Maybe he could do it by county so all those low vaccination Republican areas get what they fear while the Democratic vaccinated areas remain free.

kiwi moment

[jamestroll]

Youngkin campaign is campaigning against things that do not exist.. that is what is pissing me off.

CRT is not being taught in VA schools. There are no pandemic restrictions here.

[wbrocks67]

What's so interesting is that a lot has been made about Youngkin momentum, and yet in a poll like WaPo, we've gone from McAuliffe +3 in early September to McAuliffe +1 a month and a half later. That's not a ton of movement.

[JustinSmith]

I think a lot of election prediction models (including mine) may stumble over this one. I've always felt that a prediction model's worth is based on how far ahead of the election it is accurate. I don't think making a correct prediction the day before the election is that valuable. This election has followed the difficult-to-predict sequence of being extremely consistent in favoring one candidate for months, with a sudden swing in the last few days. Right now, nobody has a model that accounts for this happening months before it happens. My own model is still predicting McAuliffe at +5%, but I think it may have a weakness when it comes to stark polling changes at the end of the election cycle. Part of the difficulty in trying to build a model that can be accurate months ahead of time is that it has to be resistant to the small day-to-day changes. An eventual goal of such a model should be to recognize when those small day-to-day changes are meaningful.

[Pollster]

I have a question. If McAuliffe does lose, what do you think will have been the biggest reasons as to why he lost?

Important to remember that Youngkin had the airwaves to himself for essentially the entire first month of the general election and ran uninterrupted positive biographical ads during the crucial name recognition building phase of the campaign that successfully branded him as a well-mannered, successful, and largely inoffensive business professional with no controversial political background. McAuliffe's failure to interrupt this - for whatever reason - was political malpractice and by the time he got on the air Youngkin was already thoroughly inoculated. Possible McAuliffe was asleep at the wheel (totally inexcusable). Also possible McAuliffe needed to raise money after the primary, in which case he should have smoke-signaled the DGA or other groups for help.

[wbrocks67]

I think a lot of election prediction models (including mine) may stumble over this one. I've always felt that a prediction model's worth is based on how far ahead of the election it is accurate. I don't think making a correct prediction the day before the election is that valuable. This election has followed the difficult-to-predict sequence of being extremely consistent in favoring one candidate for months, with a sudden swing in the last few days. Right now, nobody has a model that accounts for this happening months before it happens. My own model is still predicting McAuliffe at +5%, but I think it may have a weakness when it comes to stark polling changes at the end of the election cycle. Part of the difficulty in trying to build a model that can be accurate months ahead of time is that it has to be resistant to the small day-to-day changes. An eventual goal of such a model should be to recognize when those small day-to-day changes are meaningful.

Is there tangible proof though that Youngkin has the "momentum"?

I feel as though this is very much like 2017 with everyone saying that suddenly Gillepsie had "momentum" towards the end of the race but it was mostly just on "feeling" that "Northam was blowing it"