NH-SEN 2022 Megathread: General Dysfunction

[wbrocks67]

Trump likes winning but also it's possible Sununu is not willing to go MAGA Trump, since he knows that would be death in NH. Trump might realize/know this and not be interested in anointing him then.

[MATTROSE94]

Trump likes winning but also it's possible Sununu is not willing to go MAGA Trump, since he knows that would be death in NH. Trump might realize/know this and not be interested in anointing him then.

Chris Sununu is sufficient Trumpy and does support the Big Lie. Additionally, Chris Sununu has the backing of Mitch McConnell and Rick Scott as well.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mattrose is onna keep talking about Sununu and Laxalt all day, move on

[Morning in Atlas]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1440058902586933255?s=19

The drumbeat begins.

[Ferguson97]

Tilt R if Sununu runs, Lean-Likely D if he doesn't.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt R if Sununu runs, Lean-Likely D if he doesn't.

You believe WI is a Tilt R state too lol, Ayotte was leading Hassan and Hassan won on Election night, NH is like that, it's not over til it's over

Tammy Baldwin won a landslide in 2018 by 10 pts

[Morning in Atlas]

One of the more underdiscussed stories is Sununu's turn towards the anti-vaxxers. If you look deeply enough (see: Kevin Avard, Parkland) he's always embraced the conspiratorial right but the past month has been rough.

Sununu has been very quietly indistinguishable from Kristi Noem or Greg Abbott with regard to vaccines. He quietly signed a bill banning local governments and "government properties" from requiring vaccines. While Sununu is a standard conservative, the state legislature is among the most conservative in the country, and Sununu has essentially been a rubber stamp. This month there's been a deluge of headlines.

The state legislature is predictably anti-vax and has gone as far as to hold public rallies against Biden's vaccine mandate. This caused state representative William Marsh, a lifelong Republican, to leave the party. Speaker Sherman Packard outright supports the anti-vaccine movement.

Then came the Ken Weyler saga. The chairman of the Finance Commitee first draw ire for getting into an argument with our HHS Commissioner over the effectiveness of vaccines. When asked for clarification, he later cited a piece he heard on talk radio and the Internet as proof - all while citing Nicki Minaj's cousin.

The real sh*t came to a head when he sent an email full of anti-vax conspiracy theories to the legislature. The document says that the Catholic Church created the virus to control people and that Catholics are secret Satanists. It also says the vaccine causes "transhuman" babies with "pitch-black eyes", and that the vaccine has many unknown living organisms in it. Sununu demanded his resignation, but House leadrship initially defended Weyler, calling it "constituent information". Weyler has since stepped down as Fiscal Chair.

We have our own PA scandal with those not disclosing contact tracing. Representative Nicole Klein Knight has accused her colleague, Kevin Verville, of withholding his positive COVID test result from her. While he showed up to their committee meeting under the assumption of his negative rapid test, Knight says Verville never identified her as a close contact after the positive PCR. Her communications with the Speakers' office says the same.

Next, we have anti-vax protesters shutting down an Executive Council meeting.

[SnowLabrador]

It doesn't matter electorally. Lean R if Sununu runs.

[MT Treasurer]

Sununu making his decision in the next few weeks.

https://www.concordmonitor.com/Sununu-to-make-decision-on-Senate-run-in-next-two-weeks-On-the-trail-by-Paul-Steinhauser-43158917

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sununu making his decision in the next few weeks.

https://www.concordmonitor.com/Sununu-to-make-decision-on-Senate-run-in-next-two-weeks-On-the-trail-by-Paul-Steinhauser-43158917

He's gonna lose, he is only up 3, he overcame NH ANGRY WOMEN because he had a cushion on Molly Kelly in 2018/ like 20 when it closed to 7 Sununu was up 9 now he is only up 3/ not enough to beat Hassan

Hassn was trailing  Ayotte and won

[Morning in Atlas]

Considering what he said in the past about his decision, the state legislature being out-of-step with his politics, and him "leaning one way", he's probably in.

The other shoe to drop is redistricting. Pappas is considering a run for Governor, and if they gerrymander his seat or move Manchester into NH-2 I could see him go for it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It doesn't matter electorally. Lean R if Sununu runs.
[/quote
No basis for this, Chris SUNUNU lead has been cut to 3 pts instead of nine

[Sir Mohamed]

Sununu making his decision in the next few weeks.

https://www.concordmonitor.com/Sununu-to-make-decision-on-Senate-run-in-next-two-weeks-On-the-trail-by-Paul-Steinhauser-43158917

Good we finally get clarity here. That said, I expect him to enter the race for senate and not run 4 gov again. Pure tossup/tilt R then.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

How is it Tilt R and Hassan is 3 pts behind not nine PTS

[MT Treasurer]

he is only up 3, he overcame NH ANGRY WOMEN because he had a cushion on Molly Kelly in 2018/ like 20 when it closed to 7 Sununu was up 9 now he is only up 3/ not enough to beat Hassan

Hassn was trailing  Ayotte and won

🙏 Agree 100%, king. He needs to hit 50% in several polls and be ahead by >5 points to withstand a predictable last-minute surge in female support for Hassan. Shaheen always projects dominance and confidence in confronting and eventually vanquishing her male opposition (I mean, just look at her), whereas Hassan and Kelly are/were more far more reserved. If Hassan (who is objectively very low-energy) can change that and inject more direct and aggressive gender-based appeals into the campaign rather than talking about obscure bipartisan bills no one cares about, I think she has an extremely good chance even in a R-leaning year.

"When Chris Sununu had the chance to reject Sherman Packard's attacks on NH women, he stood with him, not with us — on Tuesday, stand with Maggie, not with them"

"[Shaheen addressing camera:] What this race ultimately comes down to is what people we want to represent us — in the New Hampshire I love and am proud to call my home, the divisive, reactionary, anti-choice values of Mitch McConnell, Donald Trump, Chuck Morse, Frank Edelblut, Sherman Packard, and Chris Sununu have no place. The stakes have never been higher, and only your vote stands between them imposing their values on us and us preserving our Granite State heritage. In November, let’s put New Hampshire first, not them."

The male/female arithmetic honestly isn’t that different from the white/non-white calculations in the Deep South states. There’s no doubt that NH women can outvote NH men, it’s just going to take the right messaging — the more threatened they feel, the more likely they are to flood the voting booths.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sununu isn't beating Hassan only up by 3 because he needed a cushion to beat Molly's Kelly he won by 7, if Hassan is down by 3 she is gonna win

Ayotte lead Hassan until the final weekend and Hassan won

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/steinhauserNH1/status/1456835404582162436?s=20

[SnowLabrador]

He's going to run for Senate, and he's going to win.

[Woody]

What happened in Virginia must have emboldened him.

[Sir Mohamed]

He's going to run for Senate, and he's going to win.

Don't like to say it, you're probably right here for once.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1456650812554424330?s=20

[BigSerg]

it's happening!
https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1456650812554424330?s=20

[Woody]

NJ and VA emboldened him, and with good reason. Sununu most likely wins by mid-single digits, and tosses Hassan aside like a used towel.

[Morning in Atlas]

To be fair, Sununu was probably in regardless of VA or NJ. Especially with his poll numbers.

[Morning in Atlas]

He's always been leaning towards running