Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[wbrocks67]

Is this turnout good for Dems? I mean, the election nationwide showed us benefits from high turnout isn't a one-way street for Dems. I'm particulary interested in opinions from GA posters.

I mean, it's easy to see though, just looking at the black %. Not sure if it will hold up, but right *now* the #s are very good news for Dems

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/fairfightaction/status/1338878962806775809?s=20

Atlas: “I live in a white state but dammit I know how the blacks are gonna vote and the turnout is just not going to be there in a runoff. Nevermind that the state has been at the epicenter of the voting rights conversation in this country and over a billion dollars will be spent. Jim Martin’s loss accurately predicts voting patterns, twelve years, and 3 million new registrants later.”

[MT Treasurer]

Atlas: “Turnout’s going to be low because a Dixiecrat who ran away from the shadow of Obama lost a low turnout election over a decade ago before millions of new voters joined the voter rolls.”

Atlas: “I live in a white state but dammit I know how the blacks are gonna vote and the turnout is just not going to be there in a runoff. Nevermind that the state has been at the epicenter of the voting rights conversation in this country and over a billion dollars will be spent. Jim Martin’s loss accurately predicts voting patterns, twelve years, and 3 million new registrants later.”

^You must be posting on a different ‘Atlas’ than I am because all I’m seeing (aside from two perpetual red-avatar doomers) is reports of high D/turnout Black turnout, rumors/tweets about ‘low-propensity Trumpists’ sitting this one out, Loeffler and Perdue making supposedly game-changing gaffes, etc.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Is this turnout good for Dems? I mean, the election nationwide showed us benefits from high turnout isn't a one-way street for Dems. I'm particulary interested in opinions from GA posters.

Black voters are 32.8 percent of the mail in ballots requested and 33 percent of the votes cast. The answer is yes.

But, since Ossoff barely squeaked into the runoff, he will have to perform better than he did in November. Warnock looks better.

[Bootes Void]

Is this turnout good for Dems? I mean, the election nationwide showed us benefits from high turnout isn't a one-way street for Dems. I'm particulary interested in opinions from GA posters.

Black voters are 32.8 percent of the mail in ballots requested and 33 percent of the votes cast. The answer is yes.

But, since Ossoff barely squeaked into the runoff, he will have to perform better than he did in November. Warnock looks better.

How does Warnock look better? If anything I think Ossoff does a little better than Warnock

[forsythvoter]

Is this turnout good for Dems? I mean, the election nationwide showed us benefits from high turnout isn't a one-way street for Dems. I'm particulary interested in opinions from GA posters.

Black voters are 32.8 percent of the mail in ballots requested and 33 percent of the votes cast. The answer is yes.

But, since Ossoff barely squeaked into the runoff, he will have to perform better than he did in November. Warnock looks better.

How does Warnock look better? If anything I think Ossoff does a little better than Warnock

I actually find both Ds a bit more impressive than the two Rs (in terms of personality and campaign strategy, not necessarily policy views), but I think Warnock's chances are better because Loeffler turns more people off than Perdue and her term is only for 2 years so easier for traditional R voters to cross-over. At least this is true in my stretch of the N Atlanta burbs.

[wbrocks67]

Is this turnout good for Dems? I mean, the election nationwide showed us benefits from high turnout isn't a one-way street for Dems. I'm particulary interested in opinions from GA posters.

Black voters are 32.8 percent of the mail in ballots requested and 33 percent of the votes cast. The answer is yes.

But, since Ossoff barely squeaked into the runoff, he will have to perform better than he did in November. Warnock looks better.

They are though - the % is higher right now

[T0rM3nTeD]

Big weekend update + first day of early in person voting.

Total of 314,499 mail ballots accepted so far (1.32M in the General)
Total of 1.419M mail ballots requested so far (1.782M in the General)
Total of 168,293 EIP votes so far (2.694M in the General)

If each county breaks the same way the did in the GE Senate race for EIP votes and mail votes, the breakdown would be:

Dems - 269,949
GOP - 212,843

Dems +57,106

[redjohn]

If Dems manage to win both/either of these seats, it'll be the last hurrah before 2022 when they lose the House and potentially lose a Senate seat or two. Hopefully they can capitalize off the GOP infighting, particularly in GA, to keep Republican enthusiasm lower than it would've been otherwise.

[wbrocks67]

Mail ballot requests

12/10: 1.17M (53.6% white/31.2% black)
12/13: 1.25M (53.0% white/31.6% black)
12/15: 1.42M (52.2% white/32.6% black)

GE
Final Total: 1.78M (51.2% white/31.4% black)


TOTAL VOTES (in person + mail)
12/15: 483K (54.2% white/33.6% black)
GE: 4.03M (56.5% white/27.7% black)

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1338851082945130499?s=20

[SenatorCouzens]

Not that it's dispositive as to how the election will turn out, but isn't the first day of the runoff being 47-36 Dem compared to the first day of the general being 49-34 Dem a good sign for the GOP and not really "about the same or perhaps a little better"?

Again, not indicative of how the election will turn out, but if we are just comparing both first days, this is an improvement for the GOP -- there's nothing "perhaps" about it.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1338647663164723202
Jon Ossoff is leaving Fortress Atlanta to venture out to more isolated Blue outposts in red territory.

It makes sense considering that these places have a substantial share of black voters

Also the smaller cities like Columbus, Athens, and Kavanaugh are a major part of what helped to deliver GA to Biden. Yes Atlanta played a huge role, but Atlanta by itself isn't enough by itself the way Chicago or NYC is.

City of Kavanaugh?

[GALeftist]

Not that it's dispositive as to how the election will turn out, but isn't the first day of the runoff being 47-36 Dem compared to the first day of the general being 49-34 Dem a good sign for the GOP and not really "about the same or perhaps a little better"?

Again, not indicative of how the election will turn out, but if we are just comparing both first days, this is an improvement for the GOP -- there's nothing "perhaps" about it.

Well, the turnout was higher than the turnout for the first day of early voting for the general, but I would be astounded if turnout for these runoffs exceeded the turnout for the general. Could be lots of reasons why the Dems lost ground, I wouldn't read too much into this

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1338647663164723202
Jon Ossoff is leaving Fortress Atlanta to venture out to more isolated Blue outposts in red territory.

It makes sense considering that these places have a substantial share of black voters

Also the smaller cities like Columbus, Athens, and Kavanaugh are a major part of what helped to deliver GA to Biden. Yes Atlanta played a huge role, but Atlanta by itself isn't enough by itself the way Chicago or NYC is.

City of Kavanaugh?

Lol I think I meant Savannah.

[SenatorCouzens]

Not that it's dispositive as to how the election will turn out, but isn't the first day of the runoff being 47-36 Dem compared to the first day of the general being 49-34 Dem a good sign for the GOP and not really "about the same or perhaps a little better"?

Again, not indicative of how the election will turn out, but if we are just comparing both first days, this is an improvement for the GOP -- there's nothing "perhaps" about it.

Well, the turnout was higher than the turnout for the first day of early voting for the general, but I would be astounded if turnout for these runoffs exceeded the turnout for the general. Could be lots of reasons why the Dems lost ground, I wouldn't read too much into this

I certainly agree not to read too much into it.

[Pollster]

Just completed our second (and final) extensive runoff poll. From here on out, we'll be doing tracking (which only asks demographics/vote intention/vote method/name rec).

There's nothing really new or unexpected to report, but an interesting data point we picked up is that Loeffler & Perdue are both struggling with Republicans under the age of 40, and even more so when narrowed down to under the age of 30. Many rate their likelihood to vote as low, their enthusiasm to vote even lower, and the percentage who say they've requested a ballot at this point is far lower than it was in our polls of the general election. They are also the most likely demographic to report that they haven't been contacted by any candidate's campaign. In our previous poll, we found Republican youth to be the most anti-Trump 2024, so it's possible we're picking up an under-the-radar trend here.

In the past, GA Republicans have had some of the better youth outreach we've seen. Kemp's 2018 campaign in particular did a fairly good job organizing with college Republicans, and reaching out to rural millennials. If the Republicans narrowly fall short here, Republican youth dropoff could wind up being the decisive reason.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Senators Ossoff and Warnock...let's manifest it.

[President Johnson]

Joe Biden is out campaigning for them at this moment. Come on, Georgia, deliver the president the senate to get things done.

[Tender Branson]

Just 2 weeks ago, it looked pretty grim for the 2 Dems.

Now, with more requests in and early voting going on, much better.

Let’s see if a surprise or two is possible ...

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just 2 weeks ago, it looked pretty grim for the 2 Dems.

Now, with more requests in and early voting going on, much better.

Let’s see if a surprise or two is possible ...

Funny how on election night, people thought Joe would lose and the Senate was a lost cause. We may still lose the Senate, but we do have a good chance

[Horus]

Just got back from voting in DeKalb (all Dem of course). Turnout was mediocre but steady, enthusiasm seems to be creeping up.

Both races will likely be within a point.

[roxas11]

Just 2 weeks ago, it looked pretty grim for the 2 Dems.

Now, with more requests in and early voting going on, much better.

Let’s see if a surprise or two is possible ...

I admit that weeks ago I thought that GOP had this in the bag  simply because I believed that the Dems would sit this one out like they always do in runoff elections  but Now its becoming very clear that will not be the case this time and Dems seem to be more energized than normal

maybe the GOP can still win it in the end but at this point It would not shock or surprise me at all if they Dems ended winning both seats on election day

[MT Treasurer]

I admit that weeks ago I thought that GOP had this in the bag  simply because I believed that the Dems would sit this one out like they always do in runoff elections  but Now its becoming very clear that will not be the case this time and Dems seem to be more energized than normal

maybe the GOP can still win it in the end but at this point It would not shock or surprise me at all if they Dems ended winning both seats on election day

Yeah, which is why Mary Landrieu won 44% of the vote in 2014 and why Democrats lost the two GA runoffs in 2018 by less than 4 points. The ‘Dems always sit out runoffs’ myth is based almost entirely on a single runoff election held twelve years ago (which, as RFKFan has already pointed out, is an extremely flawed comparison). At no point in this runoff campaign was there ever any good reason to believe that Republicans had either race in the bag, and Ossoff/Warnock wins would by no means qualify as ‘upsets.’ I’m still expecting Perdue and Loeffler to win, but certainly not by more than 3-4 points.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1338824661015138309?s=20

Atlas: “Turnout’s going to be low because a Dixiecrat who ran away from the shadow of Obama lost a low turnout election over a decade ago before millions of new voters joined the voter rolls.”

The funny thing is Jim Martin was not a Dixiecrat, he was an urban white progressive Dem from Atlanta lol - pretty close to the demographic that Democrats have appealed to to make gains in the northern part of the Atlanta metro (pretty much the same demographic as Jon Ossoff for one).

Anyway, the turnout so far seems to make it clear that it is not going to be a repeat of the 2008 runoff. The worst case scenario of a blowout R win can pretty much be ruled out at this point, it seems implausible that Rs can win by more than 5% or so at the very most, and more likely it will be closer than that and the Dems do have a realistic chance of winning.

The interesting question is how much of this is due to what factors? How much of the higher turnout is due to Trump, specifically, sticking around and refusing to concede the election? How much is due to the general trend of higher turnout and political engagement that has gone back for at least a decade or two in general? How much of it is due to control of the Senate depending on this race? I think these are all significant factors explaining high turnout relative to some historical runoffs.