Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[jimrtex]

Why was the Ossoff debate not broadcasted? I feel like it should be a bigger deal that Ossoff was literally there debating an empty podium...

It would be considered a contribution in kind under campaign finance laws. It could be considered a corporate contribution - and they could not claim that it was an uncoordinated expenditure. Non-profit sponsors could risk that status.

TV networks can only cover "legitimate" news events. A candidate speaking to the camera is an hour-long or half-hour-long infomercial, and the station would have to give the same opportunity to opponents. They can do clips, just as they could a stump speech.

When there are minor party candidates they can skirt the issue by getting a debate sponsor to set "objective standards" for inclusion in a debate. Typically, major party candidates won't debate if minor party candidates are invited.

[jimrtex]

Question:

I moved last week and forgot to update my address by yesterday. That means I can't vote, right? Don't want psychos accusing me of "voter fraud" or whatever the f*co.

In Texas you likely could vote, and there may be federal law covering this.

I would check with the SOS - you might have to vote provisionally, and you almost certainly wouldn't be able to get a mail ballot sent to you.

[Tintrlvr]

Why was the Ossoff debate not broadcasted? I feel like it should be a bigger deal that Ossoff was literally there debating an empty podium...

It would be considered a contribution in kind under campaign finance laws. It could be considered a corporate contribution - and they could not claim that it was an uncoordinated expenditure. Non-profit sponsors could risk that status.

TV networks can only cover "legitimate" news events. A candidate speaking to the camera is an hour-long or half-hour-long infomercial, and the station would have to give the same opportunity to opponents. They can do clips, just as they could a stump speech.

When there are minor party candidates they can skirt the issue by getting a debate sponsor to set "objective standards" for inclusion in a debate. Typically, major party candidates won't debate if minor party candidates are invited.

But they *did* offer the same opportunity his opponent: Nobody stopped Perdue from showing up on the debate stage except Perdue himself. It is frankly laughable to suggest that there could have been liability for the networks if they broadcast the non-debate.

They chose not to do so because the ratings would have been poor.

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/CAMcGrady/status/1337793180180287490?s=20
what the ?

"COVID-1619" must be a reference to 1619, the year that the first African slaves arrived in what became the Thirteen Colonies and ultimately, the United States. It is still a bizarre reference, though, incorporating this year's pandemic with the injustices of the past.

and what does it all have to do with attacks on his candidacy?

He seems to be obliquely saying that the attacks are racist. I agree it's super strange (just say what you mean) but also totally irrelevant.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/RRHElections/status/1337765347999494146

RRH Elections is doing a poll of the runoffs. Despite polls generally being terrible this year, it still might be worth looking at.

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/CAMcGrady/status/1337793180180287490?s=20
what the ?

"COVID-1619" must be a reference to 1619, the year that the first African slaves arrived in what became the Thirteen Colonies and ultimately, the United States. It is still a bizarre reference, though, incorporating this year's pandemic with the injustices of the past.

and what does it all have to do with attacks on his candidacy?

Recently, it refers less to the year itself than the New York Times 1619 Project, a series of essays that ran last year arguing that slavery and racism is the central force of all of American history.

[AGA]

Looks like 538 is back to adjusting polls again.

[Tender Branson]

Assuming both Warnock & Ossoff win by about 10% each (lol) and the results are in on Jan. 5th, is there a chance they are already sworn in on Jan 6th to take part in the counting of the Electoral Votes that day ?

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/CAMcGrady/status/1337793180180287490?s=20
what the ?

"COVID-1619" must be a reference to 1619, the year that the first African slaves arrived in what became the Thirteen Colonies and ultimately, the United States. It is still a bizarre reference, though, incorporating this year's pandemic with the injustices of the past.

and what does it all have to do with attacks on his candidacy?

Recently, it refers less to the year itself than the New York Times 1619 Project, a series of essays that ran last year arguing that slavery and racism is the central force of all of American history.

This could also be true. I'm not exactly sure what Warnock is trying to say by using the phrase "COVID-1619", but I'm assuming that he's implying that many of the attacks against him have been racially motivated. I wouldn't doubt this, but it was still a bizarre and poor choice of words on his part.

[SCNCmod]

https://twitter.com/CAMcGrady/status/1337793180180287490?s=20
what the ?

"COVID-1619" must be a reference to 1619, the year that the first African slaves arrived in what became the Thirteen Colonies and ultimately, the United States. It is still a bizarre reference, though, incorporating this year's pandemic with the injustices of the past.

and what does it all have to do with attacks on his candidacy?

Recently, it refers less to the year itself than the New York Times 1619 Project, a series of essays that ran last year arguing that slavery and racism is the central force of all of American history.

This could also be true. I'm not exactly sure what Warnock is trying to say by using the phrase "COVID-1619", but I'm assuming that he's implying that many of the attacks against him have been racially motivated. I wouldn't doubt this, but it was still a bizarre and poor choice of words on his part.

A little bit odd, throwing it in with covid... but maybe his way of pointing out that many of the attacks against him are clearly racially driven (without pointing this out in too serious of a manner).

Because I'm sure everyone in Georgia that is seeing all of the digital ads on social media and tweets from Loeffler, etc- are fully aware that Loeffler & Republican allies are trying to paint Warnock as the radical black guy that hates white people.  This is obviously a completely false and over the top characterization- but they are definitely trying to make white voters think he is Jeremiah Wright 2.0, and take out of context snippets from past sermons to make it sound like he hates the military and white people, etc.

[NewYorkExpress]

Purdue is engaged in a Twitter War with AOC.

Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) sparred Saturday over the upcoming Georgia Senate runoffs, with the progressive congresswoman urging Democrats to turn out to vote and the GOP senator pushing the liberal firebrand to go to Georgia and campaign in person.

The back-and-forth began after Ocasio-Cortez this week encouraged supporters in Georgia to vote for the two Democrats running in the Jan. 5 runoffs in order to help the party secure a Senate majority and advance progressive priorities such as a $15 minimum wage and expanded access to health care.

Perdue shared a report about Ocasio-Cortez's remarks, adding, "our offer still stands - come on down to Georgia, we'll buy your ticket!"


The GOP senator had urged the progressive lawmaker to visit the state last month and campaign for his Democratic opponent, Jon Ossoff, telling Fox News then, "I want to buy her ticket. I want her to come."

https://twitter.com/Perduesenate/status/1337797862986555392

https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1337804821097746432

https://twitter.com/Perduesenate/status/1337815542774816768

[jimrtex]

I wish all states did voter registration by party, it makes analysing the early vote easier, in NC and FL and AZ we knew what was going to happen because of the early vote this year, in GA we can only analyse the early vote by race which has limitations.

Somebody, possibly associated with the Iranian government hacked into the registration servers in Alaska and Florida, and then sent threatening e-mails to voters purporting to be from the Proud Boys, telling Democrats that they better change their registration to Republican and voter for Trump or else.

[GALeftist]

Purdue is engaged in a Twitter War with AOC.

Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) sparred Saturday over the upcoming Georgia Senate runoffs, with the progressive congresswoman urging Democrats to turn out to vote and the GOP senator pushing the liberal firebrand to go to Georgia and campaign in person.

The back-and-forth began after Ocasio-Cortez this week encouraged supporters in Georgia to vote for the two Democrats running in the Jan. 5 runoffs in order to help the party secure a Senate majority and advance progressive priorities such as a $15 minimum wage and expanded access to health care.

Perdue shared a report about Ocasio-Cortez's remarks, adding, "our offer still stands - come on down to Georgia, we'll buy your ticket!"


The GOP senator had urged the progressive lawmaker to visit the state last month and campaign for his Democratic opponent, Jon Ossoff, telling Fox News then, "I want to buy her ticket. I want her to come."

https://twitter.com/Perduesenate/status/1337797862986555392

https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1337804821097746432

https://twitter.com/Perduesenate/status/1337815542774816768

What a farce. He is absolutely not talking to voters. His campaign strategy thus far has been a glorified windowless basement, refusing debates, poking his head out at overwhelmingly supportive rallies, and hoping to coast by on the partisanship of the state. He and Loeffler are really drunk on some (obviously wrong) polling I presume they've seen about how much Cobb moderates hate Radical Liberals like AOC with their Socialist Agendas.

[jimrtex]

Why was the Ossoff debate not broadcasted? I feel like it should be a bigger deal that Ossoff was literally there debating an empty podium...

It would be considered a contribution in kind under campaign finance laws. It could be considered a corporate contribution - and they could not claim that it was an uncoordinated expenditure. Non-profit sponsors could risk that status.

TV networks can only cover "legitimate" news events. A candidate speaking to the camera is an hour-long or half-hour-long infomercial, and the station would have to give the same opportunity to opponents. They can do clips, just as they could a stump speech.

When there are minor party candidates they can skirt the issue by getting a debate sponsor to set "objective standards" for inclusion in a debate. Typically, major party candidates won't debate if minor party candidates are invited.

But they *did* offer the same opportunity his opponent: Nobody stopped Perdue from showing up on the debate stage except Perdue himself. It is frankly laughable to suggest that there could have been liability for the networks if they broadcast the non-debate.

They chose not to do so because the ratings would have been poor.

FAQ'S:LEAGUE CANDIDATE FORUMS AND DEBATES

See the part about procuring a pro-bono lawyer. While we are giving advice for free, I suspect we don't qualify as lawyers.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

So checking back in on this, it looks like the White percentage is indeed going down. It was 53.6% yesterday white, now down to 53.2%. If it were hypothetically to go down by 0.4% each day, then we would get to 51.2% white in 5 more days. The black percentage share also held firm at 31.4%.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html

Race    Count    Percent
Non-Hispanic White    636,821    53.2
Non-Hispanic Black    375,756    31.4
Hispanic    25,561    2.1
Non-Hispanic Asian American    38,465    3.2
Non-Hispanic Native American    1,607    0.1
Other/Multiple/Unknown    108,168    9.0

Update again on this, the White share is continuing to go down, while the Black share is going up. That has to be a positive trend for the Dems. This is definitely making me more optimistic than I was about the Dem's chances:

Race    Count    Percent
Non-Hispanic White    646,591    53.0
Non-Hispanic Black    385,171    31.6
Hispanic    26,539    2.2
Non-Hispanic Asian American    39,503    3.2
Non-Hispanic Native American    1,650    0.1
Other/Multiple/Unknown    110,552    9.1
TOTAL    1,220,685    100.0


The White:Black ratio for absentee requests was 0.613 in the General Election

Currently it is 0.596 and still trending up.

The question is how many more days are there still going to be more requests coming in, and will it keep trending up?

This is suggestive that African American turnout may be just fine for the run-off, and if AA turnout is good while college whites vote relatively more than non-college whites, then Dems do have a legitimate shot at this, despite Biden being President elect. That is also in part due to Trump's atrocious behavior and how he is staying in the news trying to overturn the election, which will probably help Dems among suburban college whites.

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/CAMcGrady/status/1337793180180287490?s=20
what the ?

"COVID-1619" must be a reference to 1619, the year that the first African slaves arrived in what became the Thirteen Colonies and ultimately, the United States. It is still a bizarre reference, though, incorporating this year's pandemic with the injustices of the past.

and what does it all have to do with attacks on his candidacy?

We will all be slaves to the Chinese if Democrats take control of Senate.

He really meant COVID-1421.

[MATTROSE94]

So checking back in on this, it looks like the White percentage is indeed going down. It was 53.6% yesterday white, now down to 53.2%. If it were hypothetically to go down by 0.4% each day, then we would get to 51.2% white in 5 more days. The black percentage share also held firm at 31.4%.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html

Race    Count    Percent
Non-Hispanic White    636,821    53.2
Non-Hispanic Black    375,756    31.4
Hispanic    25,561    2.1
Non-Hispanic Asian American    38,465    3.2
Non-Hispanic Native American    1,607    0.1
Other/Multiple/Unknown    108,168    9.0

Update again on this, the White share is continuing to go down, while the Black share is going up. That has to be a positive trend for the Dems. This is definitely making me more optimistic than I was about the Dem's chances:

Race    Count    Percent
Non-Hispanic White    646,591    53.0
Non-Hispanic Black    385,171    31.6
Hispanic    26,539    2.2
Non-Hispanic Asian American    39,503    3.2
Non-Hispanic Native American    1,650    0.1
Other/Multiple/Unknown    110,552    9.1
TOTAL    1,220,685    100.0


The White:Black ratio for absentee requests was 0.613 in the General Election

Currently it is 0.596 and still trending up.

The question is how many more days are there still going to be more requests coming in, and will it keep trending up?

This is suggestive that African American turnout may be just fine for the run-off, and if AA turnout is good while college whites vote relatively more than non-college whites, then Dems do have a legitimate shot at this, despite Biden being President elect. That is also in part due to Trump's atrocious behavior and how he is staying in the news trying to overturn the election, which will probably help Dems among suburban college whites.

I think that Raphael Warnock will pull it through with 51% of the vote, but David “King of the Suburbs” Perdue will narrowly win, maybe only by a 50.01-49.99 margin.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

AOC should ask Perdue to send her the plane ticket to go to GA, and then when (if) she gets it, don't bother to go after all, and instead simply tweet "A fool and his money are soon parted."

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

AOC should ask Perdue to send her the plane ticket to go to GA, and then when (if) she gets it, don't bother to go after all, and instead simply tweet "A fool and his money are soon parted."

or simply donate it to somebody in need of travelling to georgia.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It's a bit of a fools game to rely on early voting data but given how it held up in Georgia kinda welcome news for democrats.
https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1337950223914549249
https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1337950224770220033

[GALeftist]

It's a bit of a fools game to rely on early voting data but given how it held up in Georgia kinda welcome news for democrats.
https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1337950223914549249
https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1337950224770220033

My longest yeah boi ever

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So checking back in on this, it looks like the White percentage is indeed going down. It was 53.6% yesterday white, now down to 53.2%. If it were hypothetically to go down by 0.4% each day, then we would get to 51.2% white in 5 more days. The black percentage share also held firm at 31.4%.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html

Race    Count    Percent
Non-Hispanic White    636,821    53.2
Non-Hispanic Black    375,756    31.4
Hispanic    25,561    2.1
Non-Hispanic Asian American    38,465    3.2
Non-Hispanic Native American    1,607    0.1
Other/Multiple/Unknown    108,168    9.0

Update again on this, the White share is continuing to go down, while the Black share is going up. That has to be a positive trend for the Dems. This is definitely making me more optimistic than I was about the Dem's chances:

Race    Count    Percent
Non-Hispanic White    646,591    53.0
Non-Hispanic Black    385,171    31.6
Hispanic    26,539    2.2
Non-Hispanic Asian American    39,503    3.2
Non-Hispanic Native American    1,650    0.1
Other/Multiple/Unknown    110,552    9.1
TOTAL    1,220,685    100.0


The White:Black ratio for absentee requests was 0.613 in the General Election

Currently it is 0.596 and still trending up.

The question is how many more days are there still going to be more requests coming in, and will it keep trending up?

This is suggestive that African American turnout may be just fine for the run-off, and if AA turnout is good while college whites vote relatively more than non-college whites, then Dems do have a legitimate shot at this, despite Biden being President elect. That is also in part due to Trump's atrocious behavior and how he is staying in the news trying to overturn the election, which will probably help Dems among suburban college whites.

but bipartisan moderate david perdue is king of the suburbs, hell be racking it up in dekalb to offset his losses in places like chatooga county ga

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Do y'all think that Vaccine Distribution could help the Republicans?

[SCNCmod]

It's a bit of a fools game to rely on early voting data but given how it held up in Georgia kinda welcome news for democrats.
https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1337950223914549249

Is the 49.4% of requested ballots from 65+ correct?  I thought last week this was around 40% (and 31% in the general).  If 49.4% is correct- this should be a note of caution for Dems.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It's a bit of a fools game to rely on early voting data but given how it held up in Georgia kinda welcome news for democrats.
https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1337950223914549249

Is the 49.4% of requested ballots from 65+ correct?  I thought last week this was around 40% (and 31% in the general).  If 49.4% is correct- this should be a note of caution for Dems.

+65 voters are automatically sent absentte ballots if they requested one before.