NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah, Paulsen is done. Trump has a 61% disapproval rating here and the GCB in the district is D+12

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah Miller has probably got this.

I don't think you noticed this but they're being sarcastic.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

ONE REPUBLICAN FOR OJEDA!!!

REPS ARE #WALKINGAWAYING FOR THE DEMS!!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

OJED +18 BLUE TSUNAMI

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Could people stop overreacting? Not enough voters polled yet.

Could it maybe be that we're just joking and having fun with it?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Guys, I think even Pol Pot would do better in WV 3rd than Hillary.

*Hillary 2008

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Guys, I think even Pol Pot would do better in WV 3rd than Hillary.

*Hillary 2008

I meant Hillary 2016 GE.

I know. I said Hillary 2008 would do better than 2016 in West Virginia

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

WV-03 still as Titanium Safe GOP as ever

You better just be playing along with the rest of us.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This can't bode well for Manchin.

Jesus Christ, he’s polling 9 points ahead of his opponent in a state that gives Trump a 61% approval rating. He won this district by 49 points and if Ojeda loses it will not be by more than 8. Chill out.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It's time to cut WV loose, and wish our candidates luck. Love ya Manchin, but for the good of the party and country, let's redirect all the party efforts and resources planned for Manchin to help put McCaskill and maybe another one or two over the top.

Stop.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah no, if Hurd is going to win reelection it'll be by no more than 5 points, especially with the O'Rourke coattails. Tossup.

You know these polls are trash when they want us to believe 18-29 year olds are going 65% in favor of most of the GOP candidates on here.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah no, if Hurd is going to win reelection it'll be by no more than 5 points, especially with the O'Rourke coattails. Tossup.

You know these polls are trash when they want us to believe 18-29 year olds are going 65% in favor of most of the GOP candidates on here.

Hurd is also leading 18-29s 64-31 (sample size of 16).

In a district like TX-23, that should definitely be the most democratic age group because it is the most disproportionately Hispanic.

So they do seem to be having some trouble sampling young voters at the moment.

There is actually only a single one of the NYT/Siena polls so far in which 18-29s are the most Democratic age group (CA-49).

Yeah, this is turning out to be a poorly-run project by Cohn and Siena. Don't be surprised if the vast majority of these are way off the mark on election day.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

They seriously need to come up with another plan of attack with 18-29 year olds. There is no way they're getting accurate results from them.

Anyways, Jones is improving.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Trende wrote that based on these polls he sees Democrats picking up 30 seats. So I guess these polls aren't very favorable for Democrats.

This is Sean Trende we're talking about. And don't forget these poll are horribly flawed.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Polls that closed-

FL-26: Mucarsel-Powell (D): 50%, Curbelo (R)*: 42%

ME-02: Golden (D): 42%, Poliquin (R): 47%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Just watched 6 callers answer Democrat in a row in Kansas-02. It was pretty fun.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

JESUS. Blum with an unfavorable rating of 59% Early, but that's impressive.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lol y'all are writing off people like Katie Hill who are literally trailing by one point in a poll with a massive MOE.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Atlas has severely underestimated Sharice Davids. I feel that the GOP's tanking support in the suburbs, amongst white women, and Kobach being at the top of ticket is all factoring in her having this lead.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

They should be wrapping up CA-49 and KS-03 pretty soon. Very nice polls for the Democrats.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

CA-49 Is completed. 507 respondents-

Levin (D) 51%  36/12% +24 Favorable Rating
Harkey (R) 41%   27/18% +9 Favorable Rating

Trump approval: 41/55% (-14)

GCB: D+12

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

KS-03 is complete. 494 respondents-

Davids (D): 51%   44/32% (+12) Favorability
Yoder* (R): 43%   40/49% (-9) Favorability

Trump Approval: 41/56% (-15)

GCB: D+8

Voters oppose the Kavanaugh nomination 48-42%

Davids leads amongst whites and nonwhites.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

If Porter wins, so does Katie Hill.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

PA-07 is complete. 539 respondents-

Wild (D): 50%   34/19% +15 Favorabiliity
Northstein (R): 42%   30/22% +8 Favorability

Trump Approval- 42/53%  -11 Disapprove

GCB: D+11

Wild up 16 points with women, tied with men.

Wild up 11 points with white college-educated whites.

Wild up 17 points with independents.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

These last three days of polling have been pretty bad for Dems, especially compared to the terrific week before that.  I hope this isn't any sort of trend.

I'd wait a little longer before jumping to any conclusions, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if Dems overplayed their hand on the Kavanaugh situation. As always, people here assume the entire country agrees with them about Kavanaugh when that absolutely is not the case. White men and the Republican base (but I repeat myself) are outraged at the way he is being treated by the Democratic Party. Not that it really matters since nobody will remember or care in a month either way. There's gonna be a lot of shiny objects over the next 38 days.

Polls show a plurality agree with Ford, besides, that's a very small plurality, which means a lot of people don't care either way. I doubt it changes anything.