NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[TheSaint250]

All I was saying was it’s kinda funny that he keeps running and losing, and I kinda pity him for it, especially with his close losses.

Sorry if that created controversy

[Xing]

All I was saying was it’s kinda funny that he keeps running and losing, and I kinda pity him for it, especially with his close losses.

Sorry if that created controversy

No worries, you're good, I was just adding my two cents

[wesmoorenerd]

If Porter wins, so does Katie Hill.

I think the most likely result right now is a five seat flip in CA: 45, 25, 10, 48, and 49. I think the imbalance in candidate quality in 39 is going to narrowly keep that one in Republican hands.

That said, these Porter numbers are great news for Dems. Conventional wisdom for a while was this seat would be the toughest one to flip, but it's looking that Porter was being underrated and Walters overrated, somewhat similar to Kim and MacArthur in NJ-03. In fact, I'm willing to bet that if they repolled CA-48, you'd see more favorable numbers for Rouda.

[SPQR]

In NJ-03, among "almost certain" voters, Kim is +43!

Enthusiasm gap is very, very, very telling in most districts.

[wbrocks67]

In NJ-03, among "almost certain" voters, Kim is +43!

Enthusiasm gap is very, very, very telling in most districts.

Which is why it's odd to me that in a lot of polls with LV models, Dems somehow go down. Nearly every NYT/Siena poll has shown Dems with stronger #s under "almost certain to vote"

[wbrocks67]

Also RE: NJ-03. While I don't think Kim is up by 20 most likely, if anyone is from this area, they'd know that the battle is getting real nasty and MacArthur has been under siege for over a year now. He's incredibly unpopular.

[GeorgiaModerate]

In NJ-03, among "almost certain" voters, Kim is +43!

Enthusiasm gap is very, very, very telling in most districts.

Which is why it's odd to me that in a lot of polls with LV models, Dems somehow go down. Nearly every NYT/Siena poll has shown Dems with stronger #s under "almost certain to vote"

I'm actually tracking exactly that gap in the NYT/Siena polls, i.e. the difference between the Upshot weighted estimate and the result among "almost certain to vote".  I'm posting detailed updates periodically in this thread (the latest one is on the previous page, about 8:30 EDT last night).  Overall, for the 22 polls completed so far the mean enthusiasm gap is D+1.9 and the median is D+3.5.

[Tintrlvr]

In NJ-03, among "almost certain" voters, Kim is +43!

Enthusiasm gap is very, very, very telling in most districts.

Which is why it's odd to me that in a lot of polls with LV models, Dems somehow go down. Nearly every NYT/Siena poll has shown Dems with stronger #s under "almost certain to vote"

The LV models are often based on historical propensity to vote rather than what voters tell the pollsters.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1044603254938767360

[beesley]

Not looking good for the Chairman of the Rules Committee.

[Zaybay]

Eastman is doing very poorly, I am heavily disappointed. Perhaps she can tighten the results at the end, I am not sure. If she is down by more than 5, the race moves to lean R.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Eastman is doing very poorly, I am heavily disappointed. Perhaps she can tighten the results at the end, I am not sure. If she is down by more than 5, the race moves to lean R.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

PA-07 is complete. 539 respondents-

Wild (D): 50%   34/19% +15 Favorabiliity
Northstein (R): 42%   30/22% +8 Favorability

Trump Approval- 42/53%  -11 Disapprove

GCB: D+11

Wild up 16 points with women, tied with men.

Wild up 11 points with white college-educated whites.

Wild up 17 points with independents.

[GeorgiaModerate]

PA-07 is complete. 539 respondents-

Wild (D): 50%   34/19% +15 Favorabiliity
Northstein (R): 42%   30/22% +8 Favorability

Trump Approval- 42/53%  -11 Disapprove

GCB: D+11

Wild up 16 points with women, tied with men.

Wild up 11 points with white college-educated whites.

Wild up 17 points with independents.

The "enthusiasm gap" in this one is D+10 (Upshot weighted estimate is D+9, but among those almost certain to vote it's D+19).

[wbrocks67]

I have no idea if Eastman has a chance at winning, but the sample is very pro-Republican. This is a +1 Bacon, +2 Trump seat. Can't imagine Trump approval is at +1 in a Trump +2 seat. Or that Bacon is winning by 11% in a Dem year in a seat he only won by 1% in 2016.

[Yellowhammer]

I have no idea if Eastman has a chance at winning, but the sample is very pro-Republican. This is a +1 Bacon, +2 Trump seat. Can't imagine Trump approval is at +1 in a Trump +2 seat. Or that Bacon is winning by 11% in a Dem year in a seat he only won by 1% in 2016.

Eastman is just that bad. Do people really think some random JD has a good chance of beating an uncontroversial republican incumbent in a moderate, R +4 district?
If things get even more awful for the GOP sometime in the next month, she might be able to squeak through by a point or so. Bacon is in a pretty good position right now, though.

[ON Progressive]

I have no idea if Eastman has a chance at winning, but the sample is very pro-Republican. This is a +1 Bacon, +2 Trump seat. Can't imagine Trump approval is at +1 in a Trump +2 seat. Or that Bacon is winning by 11% in a Dem year in a seat he only won by 1% in 2016.

If Bacon is as popular as the poll says, we were never going to win this seat no matter who we put up.

[libertpaulian]

I have no idea if Eastman has a chance at winning, but the sample is very pro-Republican. This is a +1 Bacon, +2 Trump seat. Can't imagine Trump approval is at +1 in a Trump +2 seat. Or that Bacon is winning by 11% in a Dem year in a seat he only won by 1% in 2016.

Eastman is just that bad. Do people really think some random JD has a good chance of beating an uncontroversial republican incumbent in a moderate, R +4 district?
If things get even more awful for the GOP sometime in the next month, she might be able to squeak through by a point or so. Bacon is in a pretty good position right now, though.

Yeah, who'd have thought that running someone who wants to ban guns in NEBRASKA was a smart idea? 

[Zaybay]

I have no idea if Eastman has a chance at winning, but the sample is very pro-Republican. This is a +1 Bacon, +2 Trump seat. Can't imagine Trump approval is at +1 in a Trump +2 seat. Or that Bacon is winning by 11% in a Dem year in a seat he only won by 1% in 2016.

If Bacon is as popular as the poll says, we were never going to win this seat no matter who we put up.

Gotta agree with this. The man has Curbelo/Hurd levels of popularity in this poll.

[DrScholl]

Eastman has a good chance regardless of what this poll says (it's not even finished mind you). She ran a smarter primary campaign because she targeted minority voters heavily and is a non-profit head, which means she knows how to organize.

[wbrocks67]

NE-02 is a swing district. Even if Eastman is more left-wing that still wouldn't scare away so many voters that Bacon, who barely won in 2016, would have a +10 edge.

Again though, the entire sample is R. Trump's approval is basically his vote share from 2016, which is completely unrealistic.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I have no idea if Eastman has a chance at winning, but the sample is very pro-Republican. This is a +1 Bacon, +2 Trump seat. Can't imagine Trump approval is at +1 in a Trump +2 seat. Or that Bacon is winning by 11% in a Dem year in a seat he only won by 1% in 2016.

If Bacon is as popular as the poll says, we were never going to win this seat no matter who we put up.

Gotta agree with this. The man has Curbelo/Hurd levels of popularity in this poll.

Those districts are hispanic low turnout things though and with Hurd's is ancestrally R. That being said, I think that Bacon only wins by slightly more than he did in 2016, and would have beaten Ashford just as badly too.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

NE-02 is a swing district. Even if Eastman is more left-wing that still wouldn't scare away so many voters that Bacon, who barely won in 2016, would have a +10 edge.

Again though, the entire sample is R. Trump's approval is basically his vote share from 2016, which is completely unrealistic.

That's what I was just concluding, looking at how the other questions are shaping up right now. So far, the sample almost supports repealing Obamacare. If a district supports repealing Obamacare, Democrats never had a chance in the first place. This is probably not a representative sample so far.

[Zaybay]

NE-02 is a swing district. Even if Eastman is more left-wing that still wouldn't scare away so many voters that Bacon, who barely won in 2016, would have a +10 edge.

Again though, the entire sample is R. Trump's approval is basically his vote share from 2016, which is completely unrealistic.

That's what I was just concluding, looking at how the other questions are shaping up right now. So far, the sample almost supports repealing Obamacare. If a district supports repealing Obamacare, Democrats never had a chance in the first place. This is probably not a representative sample so far.

Wait, NE-02 wants to repeal Obamacare? Thats....not at all realistic.

[Tintrlvr]

NE-02 is a swing district. Even if Eastman is more left-wing that still wouldn't scare away so many voters that Bacon, who barely won in 2016, would have a +10 edge.

Again though, the entire sample is R. Trump's approval is basically his vote share from 2016, which is completely unrealistic.

That's what I was just concluding, looking at how the other questions are shaping up right now. So far, the sample almost supports repealing Obamacare. If a district supports repealing Obamacare, Democrats never had a chance in the first place. This is probably not a representative sample so far.

I agree. Given the current results, it's likely that Bacon will have at least a mid-single-digits lead in the end, but his lead will probably come down somewhat later on as the current sample seems unusually R-friendly in ways that should be independent of whether Eastman is a poor candidate or not (Trump approval, Obamacare repeal, etc.).