NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[GeorgiaModerate]

All the current polls except NM-02 are active again.  Current status for those who might not be able to access it:

TX-7: 0 responses (26 calls)

FL-26: 181 responses, Mucarsel-Powell (D) 51, Curbelo (R) 44

KS-2: 238 responses, Watkins (R) 45, Davis (D) 44

ME-2: 438 responses, Poliquin (R) 47, Golden (D) 43

NM-2: 20 responses, too early to report

[Xing]

If the Mucarsel-Powell+7 result holds (IF), that would be kind of surprising to me. I'd sooner expect Hurd to be down 7 and Curbelo to be up 8, rather than the other way around.

[Gass3268]

If the Mucarsel-Powell+7 result holds (IF), that would be kind of surprising to me. I'd sooner expect Hurd to be down 7 and Curbelo to be up 8, rather than the other way around.

Cohen is saying that their response rate with nonwhites (aka Cubans) is currently really bad. From what they have Curbelo is up by 10 points with Hispanics, so this is probably causing issues to the overall poll.

The main thing that this exercise is showing me is just how hard it is to do really good polling right now and that it is only going to get harder.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Trende wrote that based on these polls he sees Democrats picking up 30 seats. So I guess these polls aren't very favorable for Democrats.

[Pericles]

Trende wrote that based on these polls he sees Democrats picking up 30 seats. So I guess these polls aren't very favorable for Democrats.

What? If Democrats gain 30 that's a majority, so they win. That's a pretty good result for them imo.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If the Mucarsel-Powell+7 result holds (IF), that would be kind of surprising to me. I'd sooner expect Hurd to be down 7 and Curbelo to be up 8, rather than the other way around.

Why?  For the most part, the 2018 election will be a referendum on Trump.  Curbelo's district is D+6 and vote for Hillary by 16 points; Hurd's is R+1 and voted for Hillary by only 3.   

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Trende wrote that based on these polls he sees Democrats picking up 30 seats. So I guess these polls aren't very favorable for Democrats.

This is Sean Trende we're talking about. And don't forget these poll are horribly flawed.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Trende wrote that based on these polls he sees Democrats picking up 30 seats. So I guess these polls aren't very favorable for Democrats.

Yep, that's too low of a wave. That just means 2020 will be a huge GOP comeback during a presidential year.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Trende wrote that based on these polls he sees Democrats picking up 30 seats. So I guess these polls aren't very favorable for Democrats.

What? If Democrats gain 30 that's a majority, so they win. That's a pretty good result for them imo.

Yeah, but most people were/are predicting around 40 seats. So Trende's prediction is on the low side.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trende wrote that based on these polls he sees Democrats picking up 30 seats. So I guess these polls aren't very favorable for Democrats.

What? If Democrats gain 30 that's a majority, so they win. That's a pretty good result for them imo.

Yeah, but most people were/are predicting around 40 seats. So Trende's prediction is on the low side.

FWIW, The Economist's model is currently D+29.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The overall trend I'm picking up from this poll is that Trump matters even more and individual candidates matter less than the conventional wisdom suggests.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Polls that closed-

FL-26: Mucarsel-Powell (D): 50%, Curbelo (R)*: 42%

ME-02: Golden (D): 42%, Poliquin (R): 47%

[Zaybay]

Polls that closed-

FL-26: Mucarsel-Powell (D): 50%, Curbelo (R)*: 42%

ME-02: Golden (D): 42%, Poliquin (R): 47%

These NYT polls are becoming worse and worse as time goes on.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Polls that closed-

FL-26: Mucarsel-Powell (D): 50%, Curbelo (R)*: 42%

ME-02: Golden (D): 42%, Poliquin (R): 47%

These NYT polls are becoming worse and worse as time goes on.

You not liking the result doesn't mean it's bad.

ME-02 is extremely rural, white, old, and uneducated. Guess which party does well with those demographics.

[Zaybay]

Polls that closed-

FL-26: Mucarsel-Powell (D): 50%, Curbelo (R)*: 42%

ME-02: Golden (D): 42%, Poliquin (R): 47%

These NYT polls are becoming worse and worse as time goes on.

You not liking the result doesn't mean it's bad.

ME-02 is extremely rural, white, old, and uneducated. Guess which party does well with those demographics.

I was actually referring to FL-26, a seat that almost all polling has shown with Curbelo ahead by mid digits, and now hes suddenly down by 10? Anyway, DTC, you know that Ive been critical of these polls this whole time, and even Cohn says there is a problem in the methodology.

Edit: There is a problem with the ME-02 poll, but its not that large, and Golden would probably be losing by 2 instead of 5 if it was repaired.

[Gass3268]

Looks like KS-02 is going to close with a tie. Should be a fun race to watch to the end.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Just watched 6 callers answer Democrat in a row in Kansas-02. It was pretty fun.

[Ye We Can]

Polls that closed-

FL-26: Mucarsel-Powell (D): 50%, Curbelo (R)*: 42%

ME-02: Golden (D): 42%, Poliquin (R): 47%

These NYT polls are becoming worse and worse as time goes on.

You not liking the result doesn't mean it's bad.

ME-02 is extremely rural, white, old, and uneducated. Guess which party does well with those demographics.

I was actually referring to FL-26, a seat that almost all polling has shown with Curbelo ahead by mid digits, and now hes suddenly down by 10? Anyway, DTC, you know that Ive been critical of these polls this whole time, and even Cohn says there is a problem in the methodology.

Edit: There is a problem with the ME-02 poll, but its not that large, and Golden would probably be losing by 2 instead of 5 if it was repaired.

"I think Golden is only down by 2, so there is an unspecified problem with this poll."

[Virginiá]

Trende wrote that based on these polls he sees Democrats picking up 30 seats. So I guess these polls aren't very favorable for Democrats.

Yep, that's too low of a wave. That just means 2020 will be a huge GOP comeback during a presidential year.

Literally just making things up, as usual.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Interesting that the KS-02 poll actually oversampled young voters, with a response rate among 18-29 years olds more than 5x better than the same group in the ME-02 poll.

[IceSpear]

Man, it's hard to keep up with these things.

Looks like Coffman is DOA. Can't say I'm surprised, I've had it at Lean/Likely D for a while now. Trailing by double digits despite having far higher name recognition than his opponent? Yikes! He could very well get Blanched.

Iron Deadbeat Jailbird is finished. Trailing 50-44 despite having higher name recognition than Steil, and most of the undecideds are Republicans. Admittedly he did do a bit better in the poll than I expected. The favorable political environment for Dems might end up stopping it from being a total thrashing.

ME-02 is a toss up, though I'm sure plenty of hot takes will suggest otherwise. Poliquin's name recognition is far higher than Golden's, but his favorables are at -7.

Brat's name recognition is much higher than Spanberger's, and his lead is pretty weak. But the fundamentals of the district are still in his favor. This one should end up being close, as expected.

Dems are doing surprisingly well so far in FL-26 considering the narrative was that Curbelo was an unbeatable titan like David Valadao and Will Hurd. Though it's still early, so I guess we'll see if it lasts.

I'm pleasantly surprised by KS-02 so far, since I had it at lean R.

[ON Progressive]

Dems are doing surprisingly well so far in FL-26 considering the narrative was that Curbelo was an unbeatable titan like David Valadao and Will Hurd. Though it's still early, so I guess we'll see if it lasts.

The FL-26 poll is severely flawed for now. It's a 70% Hispanic (read: Cuban) seat but only 59% of the sample is Hispanic.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Something extremely puzzling about the WI-01 poll is that apparently, it indicates that there are people who simultaneously believe that the Mueller investigation is a politically motivated witch hunt, while also believing that the investigation should continue.

[IceSpear]

Look at those college-educated whites propping up Golden’s lead!

Don’t show RINO Tom

Thanks a lot for pointing that out, guys ... not sure how I'll be able to enjoy the Cubs game this weekend knowing how college educated Whites are voting !!!!!

I bet you'll unironically stop watching the Cubs game to check the college educated white crosstabs on these unfinished NYT polls.

[libertpaulian]

Something extremely puzzling about the WI-01 poll is that apparently, it indicates that there are people who simultaneously believe that the Mueller investigation is a politically motivated witch hunt, while also believing that the investigation should continue.

"Mueller should finish because when he doesn't indict Trump, it'll trigger the libtards!  Hurr durr!"

Probably their mentality.