NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[Beet]

My guess:

Sessions & Allred Tied

[MT Treasurer]

Allred +4. This is a much tougher district for Republicans than TX-23 for obvious reasons. I think Hurd and Allred both win in November.

[Jeppe]

My predictions

TX-32: Sessions (R) +4
CA-49: Levin (D) +6

[Florida Man for Crime]

Allred +4. This is a much tougher district for Republicans than TX-23 for obvious reasons. I think Hurd and Allred both win in November.

Given that Culberson was leading in the TX-07 poll and that is a fairly similar district, why do you expect Allred to be leading in TX-32? Sessions is also a stronger incumbent than Culberson (though I am not one to put too much stock in candidate quality, it does make some difference).

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Allred +4. This is a much tougher district for Republicans than TX-23 for obvious reasons. I think Hurd and Allred both win in November.

Given that Culberson was leading in the TX-07 poll and that is a fairly similar district, why do you expect Allred to be leading in TX-32? Sessions is also a stronger incumbent than Culberson (though I am not one to put too much stock in candidate quality, it does make some difference).

Sessions is not much stronger than Culberson. Also I expect Sessions to be ahead by 4-5 at the end of this poll, BUT I also expect Beto to be winning by at least a couple points in TX 32nd as well, I think he will outrun Allred.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Sessions is not much stronger than Culberson. Also I expect Sessions to be ahead by 4-5 at the end of this poll, BUT I also expect Beto to be winning by at least a couple points in TX 32nd as well, I think he will outrun Allred.

Sessions has much more fundraising and has previously had to run in at least one hotly contested race (against Martin Frost, for one). Culberson has never had a seriously contested race in his life, and has only run in a completely safe district against some-dude level opponents.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sessions is not much stronger than Culberson. Also I expect Sessions to be ahead by 4-5 at the end of this poll, BUT I also expect Beto to be winning by at least a couple points in TX 32nd as well, I think he will outrun Allred.

Sessions has much more fundraising and has previously had to run in at least one hotly contested race (against Martin Frost, for one). Culberson has never had a seriously contested race in his life, and has only run in a completely safe district against some-dude level opponents.

Martin Frost was redistricted out to favor the GOP.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lol I hope they call me.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Response rate is terrible in TX 32nd even more than it usually is NYT’s other polls lol.

[Politician]

Sessions is not much stronger than Culberson. Also I expect Sessions to be ahead by 4-5 at the end of this poll, BUT I also expect Beto to be winning by at least a couple points in TX 32nd as well, I think he will outrun Allred.

Sessions has much more fundraising and has previously had to run in at least one hotly contested race (against Martin Frost, for one). Culberson has never had a seriously contested race in his life, and has only run in a completely safe district against some-dude level opponents.

Martin Frost was redistricted out to favor the GOP.

Martin Frost was arguably the smartest person in the party, when you see how badly gerrymandering was in 2012. Frost tried to tell Democrats they needed to hold state legislatures, and he was ignored.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Somebody in TX 32nd just respond already, I dont give a hoot even if it’s for Sessions, cause right now we are the worst response rate out of all their polls so far lol.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Finally a first response in TX 32. Fwiw (nothing) it’s for Colin.

[BaldEagle1991]

TX 32 I have to admit is harder than TX 7. Mainly due to the fact that it’s much higher incomed and less diverse.

[McGovernForPrez]

I'm guessing Allred +3. Colin Allred is a much better candidate than Lizzie Fletcher. Remember how scandalous the primary was for that district? Lizzie Fletcher is a union busting Dem which doesn't bode well for Democratic enthusiasm there.

[wbrocks67]

Fletcher is probably at least tied. There were numerous sample issues with that poll.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Martin Frost was redistricted out to favor the GOP.

The point is that Frost put up a major fight, spent many millions, and forced Sessions to actually run a serious campaign. Redistricting does not by itself ensure victory - see Tim Holden and Chet Edwards for examples.

While it is true that the current race with Allred is more competitive than the one with Frost, Sessions does actually have the experience of being forced to run an actual campaign before, which cannot in any way be said for Culberson.

[Devout Centrist]

Damn, Blum really is f[inks]ed...Wow. And Siena is very incumbent friendly.

[cvparty]

malinowski isn’t doing too well :0

[BaldEagle1991]

I'm guessing Allred +3. Colin Allred is a much better candidate than Lizzie Fletcher. Remember how scandalous the primary was for that district? Lizzie Fletcher is a union busting Dem which doesn't bode well for Democratic enthusiasm there.

Yet Fletcher is much closer to Culberson polling wise than Allred is to Sessions.

[Xing]

Yeah, NJ-07 isn't looking great. CA-25 is disappointing as well, but it's not like 1-2 points is insurmountable for Hill.

[ON Progressive]

Yeah, NJ-07 isn't looking great. CA-25 is disappointing as well, but it's not like 1-2 points is insurmountable for Hill.

NJ-07 is very disappointing. CA-25 is meh, but it's inline with tossup at least.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I really don't get the NJ-07 result in light of the CO-06 and MN-03 polls.  Or even the close CA/IL results.  I guess there's still some time for Malinowski to close the gap.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lol y'all are writing off people like Katie Hill who are literally trailing by one point in a poll with a massive MOE.

[GeorgiaModerate]

TX-32 is still very early (88 responses) but this is an interesting divergence:

Sessions 50
Allred 41

O'Rourke 55
Cruz 43

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The favorabilities are quite interesting as well.