NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[Dr. Arch]

Kim is officially outside the MoE in NJ-3.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kim is officially outside the MoE in NJ-3.

54-30 Kim with 94 respondents.  That will likely come back to Earth with more responses, but still....wow.

[cvparty]

Kim is officially outside the MoE in NJ-3.

also notable that there's an unusually high number of undecideds

[Florida Man for Crime]

Well, I guess it is all over in NE-02. With 14 respondents, Bacon is leading 62-31 over HORRIBLE CANDIDATE Eastman with a Republican-tilted sample so far that has 62-31 Trump approval.

Also, pretty amusingly, that sample supports Single Payer 44-36, lol.

And they support repealing and replacing Obamacare 56-44. So I guess they want to repeal Obamacare and replace it with Single Payer.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Atlas is going to get triggered so hard if Eastman ends up ahead. My prediction is Eastman +5, but if Bacon ends up even 1 point ahead at any point, we'll be getting lots of #analysis about how this race is Lean/Likely R with a #socialist but would be Safe D with Moderate Electable Megatitan Brad Ashford.

Nah, most Democrats here want Eastman to win even if some of us think she can't win.  Atlas will lose it's mind if Eastman ends up losing by like 7%, we'll be inundated with #HotTakes from maroon avatars about how Eastman is really winning when you unskew the poll.

[Xing]

Atlas is going to get triggered so hard if Eastman ends up ahead. My prediction is Eastman +5, but if Bacon ends up even 1 point ahead at any point, we'll be getting lots of #analysis about how this race is Lean/Likely R with a #socialist but would be Safe D with Moderate Electable Megatitan Brad Ashford.

Nah, most Democrats here want Eastman to win even if some of us think she can't win.  Atlas will lose it's mind if Eastman ends up losing by like 7%, we'll be inundated with #HotTakes from maroon avatars about how Eastman is really winning when you unskew the poll.

Why would she do worse than Ashford? We're not talking about an extremely conservative district here, and Ashford pretty much just matched Clinton's performance, and was the only Democratic incumbent in the House or Senate to lose. I don't see what makes him so much more electable than Eastman. Either way, the rush to move this race from Toss-Up to Lean R as soon as she won was quite silly, that's my point.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Atlas is going to get triggered so hard if Eastman ends up ahead. My prediction is Eastman +5, but if Bacon ends up even 1 point ahead at any point, we'll be getting lots of #analysis about how this race is Lean/Likely R with a #socialist but would be Safe D with Moderate Electable Megatitan Brad Ashford.

Nah, most Democrats here want Eastman to win even if some of us think she can't win.  Atlas will lose it's mind if Eastman ends up losing by like 7%, we'll be inundated with #HotTakes from maroon avatars about how Eastman is really winning when you unskew the poll.

Why would she do worse than Ashford? We're no talking about an extremely conservative district here, and Ashford pretty much just matched Clinton's performance, and was the only Democratic incumbent in the House or Senate to lose. I don't see what makes him so much more electable than Eastman. Either way, the rush to move this race from Toss-Up to Lean R as soon as she won was quite silly, that's my point.

Yeah, I'm glad Eastman won the primary too.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

The TX-32 poll is exhibiting a whopping 46% gender gap, with Allred winning female voters by 19% and Sessions winning male voters by 27%.

CA-45, KS-03, and NJ-03 also have pretty large gender gaps, at 29%, 28%, and 27% respectively (although the CA-45 and NJ-03 polls aren't even halfway done yet).

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Also worth noticing is the "undecided" section: a majority of voters who said they were undecided or who wouldn't disclose who they were voting for in CA-45, KS-03, and PA-07 are said to "most closely resemble Democrats" on policy questions, while a majority of these voters in TX-32 "most closely resemble Republicans" on policy questions.

Some poor favorable ratings for incumbent Republicans: Sessions at +0, Walters at -1, Yoder at -10. The NJ-03 poll is only at 120 responses, but so far MacArthur is at -15 (!!!).

[cvparty]

kim’s lead keeps on growing omg what

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

All completed polls so far:


IA-01: D+14
MN-02: D+12
AZ-02: D+11
CO-06: D+11
CA-49: D+10
NJ-03: D+10
MN-03: D+9
KS-03: D+8
PA-07: D+8
MI-11: D+7
CA-45: D+5
MN-08: D+1
KS-02: D+1
NM-02: D+1
WA-08: D+1
IA-03: D+1
CA-48: D+<1
KY-06: R+<1
IL-06: R+1
IL-12: R+1
NJ-07: R+1
TX-32: R+1
CA-25: R+2
FL-26: R+3
TX-07: R+3
MI-08: R+3
VA-07: R+4
ME-02: R+5
NC-09: R+5
WI-01: R+6
TX-23: R+7
WV-03: R+8
NE-02: R+9
OH-01: R+9
TX-31: R+15


So far, by my amazing statistical prediction model that exclusively uses NYT/Siena polls, dems have gained 17 house seats.

[BudgieForce]

While I dont think MacArthur loses by anywhere near that much, he was front in center with negotiating the new SALT limits. I think he assumed he'd get good press because he helped preserve it, but suburbanites probably only see the new cap and are pissed.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

They need to put this TX-32 poll out of its misery already.

[GeorgiaModerate]

They need to put this TX-32 poll out of its misery already.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1043995585760636928

[wbrocks67]

MacArthur is definitely in trouble. The ads have been brutal here and there was the "Business Round Table" buying many ads even on radio to try and salvage him.

[Xing]

Unbeatable Titan Andy Kim

[Senator Incitatus]

Jesus. I have a friend who switched jobs to work for MacArthur. This poll is going to be rough, even assuming it closes considerably. I thought this was at least a Toss-Up; Kim has never struck me as a strong candidate. But I can't imagine this is going to look like anything worse than Lean D after this thing wraps up.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Jesus. I have a friend who switched jobs to work for MacArthur. This poll is going to be rough, even assuming it closes considerably. I thought this was at least a Toss-Up; Kim has never struck me as a strong candidate.

Looks like he should switch to Andy Kim.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Jesus. I have a friend who switched jobs to work for MacArthur. This poll is going to be rough, even assuming it closes considerably. I thought this was at least a Toss-Up; Kim has never struck me as a strong candidate.

Looks like he should switch to Andy Kim.

Does anyone else see "Andy Kim" and immediately think of the 60s-70s singer?

[Senator Incitatus]

Looks like he should switch to Andy Kim.

Does anyone else see "Andy Kim" and immediately think of the 60s-70s singer?
[/quote]

Yes. Also, he's a she, so...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

They should be wrapping up CA-49 and KS-03 pretty soon. Very nice polls for the Democrats.

[Gass3268]

They should be wrapping up CA-49 and KS-03 pretty soon. Very nice polls for the Democrats.

TX-32 is gonna end up being a tie.

[Virginiá]

Atlas is going to get triggered so hard if Eastman ends up ahead. My prediction is Eastman +5, but if Bacon ends up even 1 point ahead at any point, we'll be getting lots of #analysis about how this race is Lean/Likely R with a #socialist but would be Safe D with Moderate Electable Megatitan Brad Ashford.

Nah, most Democrats here want Eastman to win even if some of us think she can't win.  Atlas will lose it's mind if Eastman ends up losing by like 7%, we'll be inundated with #HotTakes from maroon avatars about how Eastman is really winning when you unskew the poll.

Why would she do worse than Ashford? We're not talking about an extremely conservative district here, and Ashford pretty much just matched Clinton's performance, and was the only Democratic incumbent in the House or Senate to lose. I don't see what makes him so much more electable than Eastman. Either way, the rush to move this race from Toss-Up to Lean R as soon as she won was quite silly, that's my point.

Not to mention that NE-02 got more Dem-leaning post-2016. It has a similar margin to VA-02, and if I had to guess, a lot of those anti-Trump votes that brought Trump down to 48% (from Romney's 52%) are probably going to break against Bacon in the end.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

CA-49 Is completed. 507 respondents-

Levin (D) 51%  36/12% +24 Favorable Rating
Harkey (R) 41%   27/18% +9 Favorable Rating

Trump approval: 41/55% (-14)

GCB: D+12

[Ebsy]

The recent (and ongoing) round of polls have been very good for the Democrats. Pretty clearly where things are headed in November.