NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[Dr. Arch]

Repubs might have to untriage this race so Abby gigacoattails don't kill off Steve King

lmao, gigacoattails

[Beet]

Repubs might have to untriage this race so Abby gigacoattails don't kill off Steve King

lmao, gigacoattails

Her gigacoattails will be so big, they'll sweep Claire McCaskill over the top.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Despite the fact that the sample size is only 34, Finkenauer's lead is so large that it is almost outside the MOE.

[Dr. Arch]

Despite the fact that the sample size is only 34, Finkenauer's lead is so large that it is almost outside the MOE.

#Flawless Finkenauer??

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

JESUS. Blum with an unfavorable rating of 59% Early, but that's impressive.

[Xing]

Despite the fact that the sample size is only 34, Finkenauer's lead is so large that it is almost outside the MOE.

#Flawless Finkenauer??

I was thinking about that, but I've already used the Flawless Beautiful meme a lot. It would be a crime to trigger BRTD.

[Florida Man for Crime]

I think a new word, Finkenauering, should be coined (and yes, I will ignore the fact that her lead is momentarily dropping now).

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=301833.0

[MT Treasurer]

Her lead is down to 8 points right now, calm down. Geez.

Anyway, I want them to poll Garfield County, MT (MT-AL/MT-SEN).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Despite the fact that the sample size is only 34, Finkenauer's lead is so large that it is almost outside the MOE.

#Flawless Finkenauer??

I was thinking about that, but I've already used the Flawless Beautiful meme a lot. It would be a crime to trigger BRTD.

I just don't understand how people think these things are still fresh and amusing after being beaten to death and then some. Do you still engage in RickRolling?

[Dr. Arch]

Despite the fact that the sample size is only 34, Finkenauer's lead is so large that it is almost outside the MOE.

#Flawless Finkenauer??

I was thinking about that, but I've already used the Flawless Beautiful meme a lot. It would be a crime to trigger BRTD.

I just don't understand how people think these things are still fresh and amusing after being beaten to death and then some. Do you still engage in RickRolling?

I think you triggered him anyways.

[Xing]

Despite the fact that the sample size is only 34, Finkenauer's lead is so large that it is almost outside the MOE.

#Flawless Finkenauer??

I was thinking about that, but I've already used the Flawless Beautiful meme a lot. It would be a crime to trigger BRTD.

I just don't understand how people think these things are still fresh and amusing after being beaten to death and then some. Do you still engage in RickRolling?

How long have you been making "opinion of ______" polls on this site again?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Despite the fact that the sample size is only 34, Finkenauer's lead is so large that it is almost outside the MOE.

#Flawless Finkenauer??

I was thinking about that, but I've already used the Flawless Beautiful meme a lot. It would be a crime to trigger BRTD.

I just don't understand how people think these things are still fresh and amusing after being beaten to death and then some. Do you still engage in RickRolling?

How long have you been making "opinion of ______" polls on this site again?

That's not a meme.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NM-02 has finished, with Torres Small ahead 46-45.  Under the different turnout models:

The types of people who voted in 2014   140k   Herrell +3
Our estimate   147k   Torres Small +1
People whose voting history suggests they will vote, regardless of what they say   150k   Torres Small +1
People who say they will vote, adjusted for past levels of truthfulness   162k   Torres Small +2
People who say they are almost certain to vote, and no one else   174k   Herrell +4
The types of people who voted in 2016   210k   Even
Every active registered voter   328k   Torres Small +3

[Tintrlvr]

Great response rate thus far in IA-01. Already passed NJ-07 in responses with only about 3/4 of the calls.

[Gass3268]

Great response rate thus far in IA-01. Already passed NJ-07 in responses with only about 3/4 of the calls.

Consistent with the rest of the Upper Midwest.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Finkenauer's lead is climbing back up again (now up to 13).

The cause of the drop seems to be that they got a couple of R responses in demographics where you wouldn't expect them -

The only age group Blum is winning is 18-29 year olds (Blum up 52-24), seems unlikely...

And the only racial group Blum is winning is non-whites (Blum up 75-18), seems also unlikely...

Who knew that 18-29s and non-whites were the next big thing in Republican politics?

So if you unskew the poll suitably, Finkenauer may "really" be up by more than 13 and perhaps her lead will keep climbing as they get more people in the 18-29 and non-white demographics.

[ON Progressive]

So if you unskew the poll suitably, Finkenauer may "really" be up by more than 13 and perhaps her lead will keep climbing as they get more people in the 18-29 and non-white demographics.

I wouldn't expect too many non-white respondents though. It's a 93% white district.

[Pericles]

Is Torres Small a strong candidate? She has the lead even thiugh voters in the district want a GOP House by a 7 point margin and Trump's approval is 47% approve-47% disapprove. Or is Herrell weak?

[ON Progressive]

Is Torres Small a strong candidate? She has the lead even thiugh voters in the district want a GOP House by a 7 point margin and Trump's approval is 47% approve-47% disapprove. Or is Herrell weak?

Torres Small was already considered quite a strong candidate as far as I remember.

[Xing]

Despite the fact that the sample size is only 34, Finkenauer's lead is so large that it is almost outside the MOE.

#Flawless Finkenauer??

I was thinking about that, but I've already used the Flawless Beautiful meme a lot. It would be a crime to trigger BRTD.

I just don't understand how people think these things are still fresh and amusing after being beaten to death and then some. Do you still engage in RickRolling?

How long have you been making "opinion of ______" polls on this site again?

That's not a meme.

No, but it's something you've done for a long time, and might not be "fresh and amusing" to everyone on this forum. Doesn't mean you don't have a right to make those threads to your heart's content, but other posters can talk about "#populists " or "Flawless Beautiful " candidates as well.

Anyway, IA-01 is flying by, after TX-07 and FL-26 took a very long time. It'll be interesting to see if Finkenauer's lead holds up, as it mostly has now that we're nearing 200 respondents. CA-25 is also continuing to trend toward Hill (49-42 now).

[OneJ]

Finnekauer is currently doing better among whites without a college degree than those with one...

[psychprofessor]

NJ-07 sample is wonky...Lance will not win post-grads and non whites.

[wbrocks67]

Would be very surprised if the NJ-07 result ended up like that. At the very least, I would expect a tie, if not a D+2 or 3 lead.

IOWA - wow. If anything, people in Iowa love picking up the phone.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Finkenauer's lead is climbing back up again (now up to 13).

The cause of the drop seems to be that they got a couple of R responses in demographics where you wouldn't expect them -

The only age group Blum is winning is 18-29 year olds (Blum up 52-24), seems unlikely...

And the only racial group Blum is winning is non-whites (Blum up 75-18), seems also unlikely...

Who knew that 18-29s and non-whites were the next big thing in Republican politics?

So if you unskew the poll suitably, Finkenauer may "really" be up by more than 13 and perhaps her lead will keep climbing as they get more people in the 18-29 and non-white demographics.

Update - they got in more responses for 18-29 and non-white, and now Finkenauer is up by 17 points (52-35 overall).

18-29s are now 45-41 in favor of Finkenauer, and Non-whites are 47-23 Blum.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

A poll that is heavily skewed towards Republicans is showing a Democrat leading beyond the margin of error lol.