NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[Predictor]

Jones getting BTFO by Unbeatable Titan Will Hurd in TX-23

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah no, if Hurd is going to win reelection it'll be by no more than 5 points, especially with the O'Rourke coattails. Tossup.

You know these polls are trash when they want us to believe 18-29 year olds are going 65% in favor of most of the GOP candidates on here.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Yeah no, if Hurd is going to win reelection it'll be by no more than 5 points, especially with the O'Rourke coattails. Tossup.

You know these polls are trash when they want us to believe 18-29 year olds are going 65% in favor of most of the GOP candidates on here.

Hurd is also leading 18-29s 64-31 (sample size of 16).

In a district like TX-23, that should definitely be the most democratic age group because it is the most disproportionately Hispanic.

So they do seem to be having some trouble sampling young voters at the moment.

There is actually only a single one of the NYT/Siena polls so far in which 18-29s are the most Democratic age group (CA-48).

[IceSpear]

Yeah no, if Hurd is going to win reelection it'll be by no more than 5 points, especially with the O'Rourke coattails. Tossup.

You know these polls are trash when they want us to believe 18-29 year olds are going 65% in favor of most of the GOP candidates on here.

Hurd is also leading 18-29s 64-31 (sample size of 16).

In a district like TX-23, that should definitely be the most democratic age group because it is the most disproportionately Hispanic.

So they do seem to be having some trouble sampling young voters at the moment.

There is actually only a single one of the Siena polls so far in which 18-29s are the most Democratic age group (CA-49).

It's CA-48, and we can credit Technocracy Timmy for staving off Generation NaZi in Orange County.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I admire the transparency of these polls.  And they do seem to be for the most part using established best practices.  

But the biggest thing I am taking away from all of them is how completely futile it is to try to poll 20-somethings over the phone.  Like, do you know any college student who will answer an unknown number in their cell phone?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah no, if Hurd is going to win reelection it'll be by no more than 5 points, especially with the O'Rourke coattails. Tossup.

You know these polls are trash when they want us to believe 18-29 year olds are going 65% in favor of most of the GOP candidates on here.

Hurd is also leading 18-29s 64-31 (sample size of 16).

In a district like TX-23, that should definitely be the most democratic age group because it is the most disproportionately Hispanic.

So they do seem to be having some trouble sampling young voters at the moment.

There is actually only a single one of the NYT/Siena polls so far in which 18-29s are the most Democratic age group (CA-49).

Yeah, this is turning out to be a poorly-run project by Cohn and Siena. Don't be surprised if the vast majority of these are way off the mark on election day.

[Florida Man for Crime]

I'm calling it now, the only bi-partisan legislation that will be passed by Congress in the 2018-2020 term will be legalizing political polling with text messages.

[henster]

Will Hurd is going to be another David Valadao.

[Zaybay]

Interesting, Bryce is leading with around 130 respondents. Its early, but it would be hilarious if TX-23 is around R+7 and WI-01 becomes D+anything.

Also, these numbers for TX-23 are rather poor, Trump is up, the district wants a GOP house, all of these are completely bizarre.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

They seriously need to come up with another plan of attack with 18-29 year olds. There is no way they're getting accurate results from them.

Anyways, Jones is improving.

[Florida Man for Crime]

They seriously need to come up with another plan of attack with 18-29 year olds. There is no way they're getting accurate results from them.

Anyways, Jones is improving.

Ortiz-Jones leads by 3 points with Seniors... by far the least Hispanic age in TX-23... and is down 34 points with 18-29s... the most Hispanic age group in TX-23.

Response rate for those 18-29s is 1 in 111

And for Seniors is 1 in 43



In WI-01, Bryce leads by 2 points overall so far, despite losing the 18-29s by 68%-25% (sample up to 14 now).



VA-07 almost has a complete poll, and although the 18-29s issue has gotten a bit better, Brat still leads  54-35 with them (sample size of 21).

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Come on Bryce buddy...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Who will win, Iron or Steel?

[Zaybay]

Who will win, Iron or Steel?

excellent!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Iron is steel's dad...

[junior chįmp]

Yeah, this is turning out to be a poorly-run project by Cohn and Siena. Don't be surprised if the vast majority of these are way off the mark on election day.

Lol

Upshot/Siena Poll Gives Democrat Narrow Lead in Virginia Governor’s Race
By Nate Cohn
Nov. 5, 2017

[Xing]

I'll laugh out loud if Deadbeat Ironstache Dad actually leads when the poll is done.

[MycroftCZ]

That TX-23 poll is bad but I wanna see how Silver changes Jones' chances of winning tomorrow...

[TheSaint250]

NYTimes does say to be wary of groups polled of less than 100 people, at the 18-29-year-olds qualifies there.

[UncleSam]

When your sample size is 60 the results say nothing as to the validity of the poll. When the sample size is 500 the results mean something but only a little as to the state of the district as a whole.

Doubting the poll as a whole due to sub samples of the population is silly. Putting much trust in a robo caller poll (especially one people in the district could track and selectively respond to) is also silly.

In short, these polls mean something - but not much. I doubt many races will fall outside the MOE on these polls, but that the exact margins will probably be rather off the mark.

[Doimper]

Also, the last minute DUI revelation was the only reason 2000 was close.

Nah, it is because Al Gore started wearing earth tones and made his populist💓 pitch.

http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/time/2000/08/28/fight.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

LOLOLOLOL

[Florida Man for Crime]

They appear to have finished the poll of TX-23.

That means we can... download the microdata!!!

https://int.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2018/live-polls-2018/races/elections-poll-tx23-1-microdata.csv

They ended up having a sample of 19 18-29 year olds, and the age 18-29 crosstab ended up 65-32 Republican for Hurd.


Now, some details about these 19 people polled, from the microdata:

1)

4 out of the 19 people (21% of them!) self-reported in the poll that they were not actually age 18-29, but were older. 1 of those self-reported that they were in the 35-49 age group, 2 of them reported they were age 50-64, and 1 of them reported they were age 65+.

One possibility here is that they were lying about their age in the poll. An alternative possibility is maybe there were 2 people at the same phone number (e.g. a "Jr." and a "Sr.") that have the same name, but have different ages, and they are actually the Senior, not the Junior.


2)

Of those 19 people, 10 of them said they were voting for Hurd, 7 for Ortiz, and 2 undecided. Without weighting, that would come out to a 53-37 Hurd lead, but the weighting transforms that to the 65-32 lead that is actually shown in the age 18-29 crosstab.

From their methodological description, the weighting sounds like it will be partly based on turnout scores, and partly based on demographics. The issue here is that the turnout scores seem to be particularly heterogeneous for the age 18-29s. There are just a few voters with high turnout scores (80%+) whereas most of the 19 people have turnout scores that are much lower (13 of 19 are below 50%, and 8 of 19 are below 25%).

Now, the issue is that the person with the 2nd highest turnout score (highest is 92.25%, 2nd highest is 85.25%) happens to be that same voter who said that they are not actually age 18-29 at all, but self-reported that they were age 65+ (the voter with the 92.25% turnout score is also voting Republican). So that voter, who may well not in fact be 18-29 at all, seems to be getting disproportionate weight in the 18-29 category. And in turn, the age 18-29 sample gets disproportionate weight in the poll overall due to the horrendously low response rate from age 18-29s.

Also, only 9/19 of the age 18-29s included in the sample said that they were Hispanic.

[Dr. Arch]

So far, Bryce is up 47-45 at an 8% MoE. Go Go!

[Pericles]

Dems are actually doing better than expected overall(WI-03 seems like a typo). Given that 538 predicts Dems are gaining around 35 seats and have a  nearly 80% chance of victory, if the Dems are doing better in these polls then these aren't good polls for Republicans.

[Tintrlvr]

They appear to have finished the poll of TX-23.

That means we can... download the microdata!!!

https://int.nyt.com/newsgraphics/2018/live-polls-2018/races/elections-poll-tx23-1-microdata.csv

They ended up having a sample of 19 18-29 year olds, and the age 18-29 crosstab ended up 65-32 Republican for Hurd.


Now, some details about these 19 people polled, from the microdata:

1)

4 out of the 19 people (21% of them!) self-reported in the poll that they were not actually age 18-29, but were older. 1 of those self-reported that they were in the 35-49 age group, 2 of them reported they were age 50-64, and 1 of them reported they were age 65+.

One possibility here is that they were lying about their age in the poll. An alternative possibility is maybe there were 2 people at the same phone number (e.g. a "Jr." and a "Sr.") that have the same name, but have different ages, and they are actually the Senior, not the Junior.


2)

Of those 19 people, 10 of them said they were voting for Hurd, 7 for Ortiz, and 2 undecided. Without weighting, that would come out to a 53-37 Hurd lead, but the weighting transforms that to the 65-32 lead that is actually shown in the age 18-29 crosstab.

From their methodological description, the weighting sounds like it will be partly based on turnout scores, and partly based on demographics. The issue here is that the turnout scores seem to be particularly heterogeneous for the age 18-29s. There are just a few voters with high turnout scores (80%+) whereas most of the 19 people have turnout scores that are much lower (13 of 19 are below 50%, and 8 of 19 are below 25%).

Now, the issue is that the person with the 2nd highest turnout score (highest is 92.25%, 2nd highest is 85.25%) happens to be that same voter who said that they are not actually age 18-29 at all, but self-reported that they were age 65+ (the voter with the 92.25% turnout score is also voting Republican). So that voter, who may well not in fact be 18-29 at all, seems to be getting disproportionate weight in the 18-29 category. And in turn, the age 18-29 sample gets disproportionate weight in the poll overall due to the horrendously low response rate from age 18-29s.

Also, only 9/19 of the age 18-29s included in the sample said that they were Hispanic.

It’s the black-18-year-old-for-Trump problem all over again that YouGov (?) was getting flak over in 2016 in their panel polling. (Not certain it was YouGov but was someone with an online panel that didn’t change.) They had huge swings to and away from Trump based exclusively on whether that person was responding to the poll that round. It’s a major hazard of modern polling. They should be dropping anyone whose self-reported age is inconsistent with their registration data from the poll.