2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Libertas Vel Mors]

RCP's 2020 GCB aggregate has it D +7.2 which is up 1.4 from last week and levels almost exactly with where the Dems were for 2018 (+7.3)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2020_generic_congressional_vote-6722.html

Obviously, it's useless this far out but the narrative that impeachment is destroying the Democrats is hot garbage.

Trump is at his highest approval of any point in his entire Presidency, and now leads in a whole bunch of the mainstream poll matchups (obviously an outlier, but USA Today's poll yesterday showed him beating even Biden by 3 points nationally, Bernie by 5, and Warren by . Congressionally I agree on it's lack of an impact, but presidentially it's already causing major changes, though it's to be seen if those changes are still mattering by election day.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/sarahnferris/status/1207481858751180802

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/sarahnferris/status/1207481858751180802

The media is REALLY forcing this "impeachment is a death sentence for Dems~~~~" narrative REALLY hard and it's really incredulous and annoying.

[Epaminondas]

Meanwhile RCP has finally pulled the plug on their 2-month old R+0 poll, bumping the Dem edge up to +7.2

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2020_generic_congressional_vote-6722.html

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/sarahnferris/status/1207481858751180802

The media is REALLY forcing this "impeachment is a death sentence for Dems~~~~" narrative REALLY hard and it's really incredulous and annoying.

Well, it depends of the districts you’re looking at. In PA-8, NY-22, NY-19, NY-11, SC-1, OK-5, MN-7, ME-2, VA-7, MI-8 impeachment is likely to be a big anchor around the neck of your party’s candidates.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/sarahnferris/status/1207481858751180802

The media is REALLY forcing this "impeachment is a death sentence for Dems~~~~" narrative REALLY hard and it's really incredulous and annoying.

Well, it depends of the districts you’re looking at. In PA-8, NY-22, NY-19, NY-11, SC-1, OK-5, MN-7, ME-2, VA-7, MI-8 impeachment is likely to be a big anchor around the neck of your party’s candidates.

Err...not really. 

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://twitter.com/sarahnferris/status/1207481858751180802

The media is REALLY forcing this "impeachment is a death sentence for Dems~~~~" narrative REALLY hard and it's really incredulous and annoying.

Well, it depends of the districts you’re looking at. In PA-8, NY-22, NY-19, NY-11, SC-1, OK-5, MN-7, ME-2, VA-7, MI-8 impeachment is likely to be a big anchor around the neck of your party’s candidates.

Err...not really. 

Err, yes it is. If impeachment is at +1 nationwide, it seems pretty likely it's heavily underwater in NY-19 etc, even if you want to say no for VA-7 or something because of trends.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/sarahnferris/status/1207481858751180802

The media is REALLY forcing this "impeachment is a death sentence for Dems~~~~" narrative REALLY hard and it's really incredulous and annoying.

Well, it depends of the districts you’re looking at. In PA-8, NY-22, NY-19, NY-11, SC-1, OK-5, MN-7, ME-2, VA-7, MI-8 impeachment is likely to be a big anchor around the neck of your party’s candidates.

Err...not really. 

Err, yes it is. If impeachment is at +1 nationwide, it seems pretty likely it's heavily underwater in NY-19 etc, even if you want to say no for VA-7 or something because of trends.

It’s not. You just pick and choose impeachment polling when it suits your narrative

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/sarahnferris/status/1207481858751180802

The media is REALLY forcing this "impeachment is a death sentence for Dems~~~~" narrative REALLY hard and it's really incredulous and annoying.

Well, it depends of the districts you’re looking at. In PA-8, NY-22, NY-19, NY-11, SC-1, OK-5, MN-7, ME-2, VA-7, MI-8 impeachment is likely to be a big anchor around the neck of your party’s candidates.

Err...not really. 

Err, yes it is. If impeachment is at +1 nationwide, it seems pretty likely it's heavily underwater in NY-19 etc, even if you want to say no for VA-7 or something because of trends.

It’s not. You just pick and choose impeachment polling when it suits your narrative

Well, impeachment is at +1 according to the polling average, there are some polls like the Fox News which have it higher but you have some polls which actually have the impeachment underwater, that’s why it’s better to average polls.

[Brittain33]

Impeachment is at 45% in Kendra Horn’s district according to the President’s own pollster.

[wbrocks67]

I'm not sure which is messier... that MI-03 was tossup to begin with or that Cartwright is suddenly Tossup after winning last time by 9.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1208034648749740032

[Landslide Lyndon]

I'm not sure which is messier... that MI-03 was tossup to begin with or that Cartwright is suddenly Tossup after winning last time by 9.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1208034648749740032

Wasserman is always eager to adopt woke narratives even when the evidence to support them is flimsy to non-existent.

[Frenchrepublican]

I'm not sure which is messier... that MI-03 was tossup to begin with or that Cartwright is suddenly Tossup after winning last time by 9.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1208034648749740032

Why did he put back MI 3rd to Lean R ? Does Amash is dropping out ?

As for PA-8 it seems that republicans have fielded a strong candidate earlier this week, so yeah Tossup is justified.

[Frenchrepublican]

Impeachment is at 45% in Kendra Horn’s district according to the President’s own pollster.

Well, 45% is not a majority, nor even a plurality.

[Bidenworth2020]

Impeachment is at 45% in Kendra Horn’s district according to the President’s own pollster.

Well, 45% is not a majority, nor even a plurality.

Clinton lost the seat 54-40, which was better than Obama.

[Frenchrepublican]

Impeachment is at 45% in Kendra Horn’s district according to the President’s own pollster.

Well, 45% is not a majority, nor even a plurality.

Clinton lost the seat 54-40, which was better than Obama.

Yeah and ?? Let's say that Trump wins OK-5 53/45 next year, Horn will still need to win a good chunck of Trump voters, voting to impeach Trump is not going to help.

[Bidenworth2020]

Impeachment is at 45% in Kendra Horn’s district according to the President’s own pollster.

Well, 45% is not a majority, nor even a plurality.

Clinton lost the seat 54-40, which was better than Obama.

Yeah and ?? Let's say that Trump wins OK-5 53/45 next year, Horn will still need to win a good chunck of Trump voters, voting to impeach Trump is not going to help.

If impeachment is at 45-50 (and Trump is less popular than not impeaching), that could mean Trump wins it by only 1-2-- something an incumbent like Horn can probably overcome. Not that this is plausible, and a more comfortable 53-45 Trump win like you mentioned is far more likely, but I am just pointing out that if one takes this poll at face value, it is bad news for Trump.

[MaxQue]

Impeachment is at 45% in Kendra Horn’s district according to the President’s own pollster.

Well, 45% is not a majority, nor even a plurality.

Clinton lost the seat 54-40, which was better than Obama.

Yeah and ?? Let's say that Trump wins OK-5 53/45 next year, Horn will still need to win a good chunck of Trump voters, voting to impeach Trump is not going to help.

This is assuming people vote only on impeachement and that people votes are coherent with each other (hint: it is not).

It is also possible someone votes for Trump and a Democratic House or vote for Trump despite believing he should have been impeached (and votes for Trump because they dislikes the D candidate even more) or that the House was right to do so or just like Kendra Horn personally and believes it's something she was forced to do by Pelosi/Democratic establishment.

Voters are not as nearly as rational than pundits likes to think.

[Tekken_Guy]

Apparently Cook thinks Troy Balderson isn’t vulnerable anymore.

[Frenchrepublican]

Apparently Cook thinks Troy Balderson isn’t vulnerable anymore.

And he is right

[Frenchrepublican]

Impeachment is at 45% in Kendra Horn’s district according to the President’s own pollster.

Well, 45% is not a majority, nor even a plurality.

Clinton lost the seat 54-40, which was better than Obama.

Yeah and ?? Let's say that Trump wins OK-5 53/45 next year, Horn will still need to win a good chunck of Trump voters, voting to impeach Trump is not going to help.

If impeachment is at 45-50 (and Trump is less popular than not impeaching), that could mean Trump wins it by only 1-2-- something an incumbent like Horn can probably overcome. Not that this is plausible, and a more comfortable 53-45 Trump win like you mentioned is far more likely, but I am just pointing out that if one takes this poll at face value, it is bad news for Trump.

If I remember correctly, the numbers were 53/45 against impeachment. But I agree with you on the point that publishing this poll was really moronic, as they were still relatively bad news for Trump

[Tekken_Guy]

Apparently Cook thinks Troy Balderson isn’t vulnerable anymore.

And he is right

But Ann Wagner is vulnerable how?

[Frenchrepublican]

Apparently Cook thinks Troy Balderson isn’t vulnerable anymore.

And he is right

But Ann Wagner is vulnerable how?

I would rate the race as Lean R at the moment, the main difference is that OH 12 has a large chuck of rural and exurban areas while MO-2 is almost entirely suburban.

[Frenchrepublican]

What a big surprise :
https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1208137670385373186?s=20

[Tekken_Guy]

Apparently Cook thinks Troy Balderson isn’t vulnerable anymore.

And he is right

But Ann Wagner is vulnerable how?

I would rate the race as Lean R at the moment, the main difference is that OH 12 has a large chuck of rural and exurban areas while MO-2 is almost entirely suburban.

Maybe NC-9 is a better comparison. It barely changed in redistricting, and McCready isn’t running again. If Balderson is safe, so is Bishop.