Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Probably a 53/47 Senate is the best we can hope for, but I am becoming bearish on D's chances, since there are s no end in site concerning the Covid crisis, but a D+3 Election is the best we can hope for

But if the blue ribbon commission on Insurrectionists would start, the Ds can start pulling away again, but Pelosi has botched things up again

We haven't heard a peep out of her

I am worried that 5 D's in TX will lose their seats in TX handing the House over to Mccarthy

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Do y’all not understand Biden could cure cancer, make America the best place to live in the World, and build a giant railway that serves the coasts and still would lose in the midterms. It’s not about policy, Americans are too stupid for that. Heck, Americans are too stupid to even vote based on their pocketbook.

Biden was handicapped by the tied Senate not winning ME and NC and using the GA Runoffs as wave insurence hurt his agenda, the Filibuster would have been broken

But, even if the Rs rule, Covid is still gonna hurt whomever is in charge

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1376880725375516680

[wbrocks67]

Wow, I remember Trump started off in the negatives but I didn't realize he was already close to -15 by day 69. I mean, he deserved it, but I thought it was still like in the higher single digits at that point still.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No one said D's can't resurrect the EC battleground in the Senate but TX and FL are netting seats in the House and TX and FL alone, Rs can take the House even if D's keep the Senate

As for Senate, we were promised a Supermajority Senate in 2020 it never happened, KS MT, ME, NC and. TX same as OH, NC, FL and MO. They only polled OH to get donations not WI

Rs are starting their QANON support again and Pelosi has said zilch about the blue ribbon Commission and we have heard from GA Prosecution of Trump we haven heard anything from Garland about Obstructing Justice of Trump

That's why 2022/, despite Biden Approvals in a Covid Environment can be an R wave, but we have 500 but Covid cases are going up


I remember Landslide Lyndon, who said D's was gonna have a Supermajority Senate and that theory was debunker, he is gone

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1376880725375516680

POTUS Tweet incoming: "MASSIVE SUCCESS in fighting the China virus, also referred to as Kong Flu. Cases dropping much FASTER than Fauci said (bad judgement). Thank your favorite president (me). Highest approvals at start of term, much higher than "O". THANK YOU, WORKING HARD!"

Ops, I forgot, that was the previous dude who was voted out and got banned on Twitter.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1376880725375516680

POTUS Tweet incoming: "MASSIVE SUCCESS in fighting the China virus, also referred to as Kong Flu. Thank your favorite president (me). Highest approvals at start of term, much higer than "O". THANK YOU, WORKING HARD!"

Ops, I forgot, that was the previous dude who was voted out and got banned on Twitter.

Then poll the Senate races we have seen only one poll from OH, and no polls from PA and WI, Amy Acton is fantastic but we want to know about WI and PA too

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marist, March 22-25, 1309 adults including 1167 RV (change from early March)

Adults:

Approve 52 (+3)
Disapprove 40 (-2)

Strongly approve 22 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 29 (-1)

RV:

Approve 52 (+4)
Disapprove 41 (-2)

Strongly approve 22 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 31 (nc)

[sting in the rafters]

Marist, March 22-25, 1309 adults including 1167 RV (change from early March)

Adults:

Approve 52 (+3)
Disapprove 40 (-2)

Strongly approve 22 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 29 (-1)

RV:

Approve 52 (+4)
Disapprove 41 (-2)

Strongly approve 22 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 31 (nc)

God f---ing dammit I was literally just writing this up to post it.


By party:
D:91-6
R:13-84
I:48-40
By education:
Non-college:47-46
College+:60-32
By race/ethnicity:
White:44-49
Black:84-13
Latino:64-29
(Unfortunately neither Asian-American nor Other are listed)


Biden's improvement comes from his improved standing with independents. It will be crucial for him to remain above >45% with this group if Dems want any hope of bucking history in the midterms.

[President Johnson]

He's about equal with Trump among the own party, but much higher support from independents and also from the opposition Trump never had double digit approvals among Democrats as far as I remember. Not even close.

[Lief 🗽]

Arizona LOVES their president!
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1376958319571701764?s=21

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Arizona LOVES their president!
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1376958319571701764?s=21

Thank you Joerizona!

[pbrower2a]

Wow, I remember Trump started off in the negatives but I didn't realize he was already close to -15 by day 69. I mean, he deserved it, but I thought it was still like in the higher single digits at that point still.

Trump's abrasive, take-no-prisoners message was already well entrenched. He had done nothing to win Democrats over except to threaten their relevance. Trump had his base but little else.

His inexperience as a political life showed. His my-way-or-the-highway approach to politics reflected his way as a tycoon and executive in private industry. Government operates by different rules. The CEO of a private business in theory can fire a clerk for having a bumper sticker for a politician that that CEO despises, but the President cannot fire a letter-carrier or even a GS-1 clerk for such. A top executive can always fire middle-management... but the President cannot purge Congress or State governors. He can rip into someone like Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer all that he wants... but she is still Governor of Michigan and Donald Trump is back to being a private citizen. 

Because Joe Biden is the near-inverse of Donald Trump in almost every aspect except age, one can hardly be surprised that approval ratings for Joe Biden are the near inverse of those of Trump. That's nothing new; that is how things were after Trump repudiated everything about Barack Obama. If you are going to repudiate someone, then repudiate someone of unqualified awfulness. Were I taking over an executive position in which I little knew the staff, I would ask among my earliest questions

"What did my predecessor do right?"

My first objective is to undo bad practices. Attempts to perfect what was good comes later because the bad stuff must be extinguished.    

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's probably will have a D+3.5 Election, that's enough to get 53 Senators and hold a narrow Majority in the House but we don't know what TX will do and Warnock is probably gone next and D's win either NC or OH along with PA, WI and NH

A D +8 Election with. supermajority Senate winning IA, FL and MO isn't in the cards, landslide Lyndon told us this in 2020, not

We were told this last time

[pbrower2a]

Arizona, registered voters. Twenty states are now on display. What's great is that one of them was really, really close in 2020, The approval gap for Joe Biden suggests that disapproval numbers have yet to truly approach ' 100% less approval, as usually happens. To be sure, President Biden has done a fine job of dodging unpopular measures, which will not last, I see Biden approval in Arizona at 55% unlikely to hold. This said, I do not predict polling results as a dynamic. I let the dynamic speak for itself. The next effective President on the conservative side of the political spectrum, I now predict, will act much more like Barack Obama than like Donald Trump.     

Arizona LOVES their president!
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1376958319571701764?s=21

It's hard to believe, but Arizona may be the 2020 equivalent of what West Virginia was in 2000 -- a surprising pick-up for a state that one Party won almost all the time. This polling result suggests that Arizona is starting to resemble Colorado or New Mexico in politics. The demographics of Arizona would seem to be somewhere between New Mexico (a very poor state) and Colorado.

55% approval for a Democrat is freakish... but again, Arizona seems now to be inverting a poll in which Trump was down about 40-55 in approval at one point (I guess it was in 2018).

It is rare that a political figure can get away with doing the opposite of his predecessor as a way to get rw-elected. Trump did that with Barack Obama, which proved unwise in the extreme. Doing the opposite of Obama was one way to get hideous results. A President who gets 365 electoral votes in a country scared of a reprise of the Great Depression and then 332 after things had calmed down had to be doing something right. So Trump hated Barack Obama's guts? Tough luck!  

If yoou are going to repudiate someone, then repudiate what is wrong. So you despise your neighbor who regularly sees the dentist and gets his car's oil changed regularly and avoids trouble by paying his bills on time. . Is contempt for your neighbor a good reason for neglecting your teeth and your car and not paying bills on time?

If I were replacing a manager who had just been fired, then among the first questions I would ask is what my predecessor did right. I'm not shaking that! So maybe he  brought a suitable assortment of foods to the company picnic and was fussy about neatness in the office as such keeps morale up. But if he is dipping into the take from the soft-drink machine for his patronage of an escort service... that ends, ideally yesterday. If he tells off-color, offensive jokes... likewise. No, you do not get to make jokes about handicapped people. No, the girly calendars go down once and for all.  

....It's Wednesday morning, and the day on which the most polls come in. I'm not sure that I fully believe this one, but still, Arizona is close to the national average in the vote, and at times in 2020 it looked as if it would go to Joe Biden by a significantly larger margin than it did. This is the first poll of approval in Arizonaafter the Presidential election... and the sick spectacle whose date will be remembered in somewhat different infamy than December 7, 1941, but infamy nonetheless.      

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+


It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant  (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled, like New York Rhode Island or Oklahoma) because the states rarely decide an election, but they always must defer to approval. Would I use a favorability rating for Illinois? Sure. Wisconsin? Absolutely not.

[wbrocks67]

I mean, Arizona has moved quite a bit left just in the last 4 years, but yeah, Joe with a +16 approval there is pretty jarring.

But it could be much like GA, where things are accelerating at a fast tip. Even with super charged Trumper turnout, Biden and Kelly still won. Will be interesting to see where it goes from here.

[wbrocks67]

Marist, March 22-25, 1309 adults including 1167 RV (change from early March)

Adults:

Approve 52 (+3)
Disapprove 40 (-2)

Strongly approve 22 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 29 (-1)

RV:

Approve 52 (+4)
Disapprove 41 (-2)

Strongly approve 22 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 31 (nc)

This seems more realistic than their last poll which seemed ridiculous (approval at only +5)

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Arizona LOVES their president!
https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1376958319571701764?s=21

Thank you Joerizona!

C’mon, man. Arijoena was right there.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A 52 percent approvals is very close to 52/48 Senate majority, we aren't gonna have a Supermajority Senate, we were promised that last time.

Covid cases are escalating and it's gonna have an effect on our House and Senate ratings

North Carolina Yankee already said don't expect a rosey Supermajority Senate and 230 H for Ds

If the PVI is close to last time 3.1 we still may lose the House, but it's gonna be very close either way

[SAAuthCapitalist]

Biden’s approval is not 65 like the liberal media says.

It’s 50-52%, not afar from Trump’s in the same period.

And no, he doesn’t have a +16 approval rating in Arizona, especially with the border crisis.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Biden’s approval is not 65 like the liberal media says.

It’s 50-52%, not afar from Trump’s in the same period.

And no, he doesn’t have a +16 approval rating in Arizona, especially with the border crisis.

50-52 is in fact still quite far from Trump's approval rating at this (or any other) point in his presidency. Try harder.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Biden’s approval is not 65 like the liberal media says.

It’s 50-52%, not afar from Trump’s in the same period.

And no, he doesn’t have a +16 approval rating in Arizona, especially with the border crisis.

Oh look, another self-appointed authority who knows more than professional pollsters.

*plonk*

[SAAuthCapitalist]

Biden’s approval is not 65 like the liberal media says.

It’s 50-52%, not afar from Trump’s in the same period.

And no, he doesn’t have a +16 approval rating in Arizona, especially with the border crisis.

Oh look, another self-appointed authority who knows more than professional pollsters.

*plonk*

Professional pollsters who are wrong about everything and thought Biden would win Wisconsin by 17.

[SAAuthCapitalist]

Biden’s approval is not 65 like the liberal media says.

It’s 50-52%, not afar from Trump’s in the same period.

And no, he doesn’t have a +16 approval rating in Arizona, especially with the border crisis.

50-52 is in fact still quite far from Trump's approval rating at this (or any other) point in his presidency. Try harder.

If you look at more unbiased polls, it actually wasn’t.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

The only polls I really trust are election day polls, since the scientific polls seem to fail to capture a lot of Trump supporters. I assume Trump's real approval on election night was around 46-51 given that he lost by 4.5% in the PV. Maybe 46-52 at worst. Most pre-election polls said Trump was around -10 or -11 in approvals. Usually re-election campaigns are mostly about whether you approve or disapprove of the incumbent. I don't think Biden was a particularly good or bad candidate.


Unsure how to adjust Biden polls based on this, though. I'm just not putting too much stock into them