French presidential election, 2022

[DL]

A cording to the latest projections LePen is only leading Melenchon 23.2 to 21.7…amazing how close she came to being knocked out of the second round

[Antonio the Sixth]

With 65% counted, Macron finally pulls ahead of Le Pen. Both are around 27%. Mélenchon at 18.8%, still behind his projected score.

[DL]

A cording to the latest projections LePen is only leading Melenchon 23.2 to 21.7…amazing how close she came to being knocked out of the second round

Now narrowed to 23.0 to 22.2!

[KaiserDave]

Watching Melenchon’s projected score inch higher but knowing he won’t pass Le Pen is painful.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Results from the commune of Dugny in the department of Seine-Saint-Denis:
Melenchon 59
Le Pen 15
Macron 13
Zemmour 5
Pecresse 2
Others 7
Rounded to the nearest whole number.

[KaiserDave]

Is it at all possible the exit poll is wrong and he passes Le Pen?

[Matty]

Is it at all possible the exit poll is wrong and he passes Le Pen?

Doubt it

European exit polls are basically official tallies

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is it at all possible the exit poll is wrong and he passes Le Pen?

Depends on the urban vote. But it can't be ruled out I guess.
Melenchon is doing surprisingly well.

[adma]

I always monitor the commune of Y (Somme) in these elections...

26 Le Pen, 12 Melenchon, 6 Zemmour, 4 Macron 4 Lassalle, 2 Pecresse, 1 Arthaud, 1 NDA

[Benjamin Frank]

I always monitor the commune of Y (Somme) in these elections...

26 Le Pen, 12 Melenchon, 6 Zemmour, 4 Macron 4 Lassalle, 2 Pecresse, 1 Arthaud, 1 NDA

What sort of commune would vote for Le Pen?

[Person Man]

What happens if LePen loses? Who has the upper hand going into the final round?

[Person Man]

I always monitor the commune of Y (Somme) in these elections...

26 Le Pen, 12 Melenchon, 6 Zemmour, 4 Macron 4 Lassalle, 2 Pecresse, 1 Arthaud, 1 NDA

What sort of commune would vote for Le Pen?

A racist one?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I always monitor the commune of Y (Somme) in these elections...

26 Le Pen, 12 Melenchon, 6 Zemmour, 4 Macron 4 Lassalle, 2 Pecresse, 1 Arthaud, 1 NDA

What sort of commune would vote for Le Pen?

Well, rural Picardie is a decent start.

[Logical]

Is it at all possible the exit poll is wrong and he passes Le Pen?

Very unlikely, but there is one huge unknown, the expatriate vote. If they somehow break for Melenchon massively instead of Macron it is possible.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What happens if LePen loses? Who has the upper hand going into the final round?

You mean if she only finishes third tonight?

I think all the polling data of the past showed that Macron was usually much stronger against Melenchon than against Le Pen.

[Double Carpet]

Is it at all possible the exit poll is wrong and he passes Le Pen?

Doubt it

European exit polls are basically official tallies

It's not an exit poll, it's a projection based on a sample of votes counted

[kaoras]

Melenchón is stagnating or receding slightly in rural areas but going up big time in urban zones.

[Zinneke]

I was also very positive about Jadot, but then he exposed himself when he forgot that Romania and Bulgaria were in the EU. This man is an MEP. That works with these people every day.

[angus]

Interesting thread.  I haven't visited this forum for at least six years but I was searching for discussion of the French election and encountered this.  I see some familiar names.  Cheers.

I'll add my two cents.  Although I'm not an expert on French politics, I read French newspapers fairly regularly and I watch French television news probably three or four times per week, mostly on the elliptical.  The predictions from the talking heads are mostly that the second tour will be a rematch of 2017 but with a tighter results.  Predictions range from 51-49 to 55-45.  Remember that 2017 was 66-44 (not counting null ballots, which amounted to nearly 12% of the overall.)  

Even Valérie Pécresse says that she will not vote for Le Pen, and is urging her supporters not to do so.  Click here and scroll down to "20:23 L’essentiel" to read more (in French).  

It is worth noting, however, that things are different now than in 2017.  First, Le Pen has pivoted slightly, moderating some of her more radical ideas.  Also, Macron managed to alienate many people with his domestic agenda over the past five years (proposed fuel surcharges, social reforms, suggested changes to la retraite, perceived ineffectiveness during the coronavirus confinement, etc.)  Finally, Zemmour and other rightist candidates have pledged to support Le Pen, which gives many RN supporters hope.  

One interesting graphic from Le Monde shows how their support is at an all-time high:



I'd still guess that Macron gets reelected to a second five-year mandat.  Time will tell.

Bon courage.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Interesting thread.  I haven't visited this forum for at least six years but I was searching for discussion of the French election and encountered this.  I see some familiar names.  Cheers.

I'll add my two cents.  Although I'm not an expert on French politics, I read French newspapers fairly regularly and I watch French television news probably three or four times per week, mostly on the elliptical.  The predictions from the talking heads are mostly that the second tour will be a rematch of 2017 but with a tighter results.  Predictions range from 51-49 to 55-45.  Remember that 2017 was 66-44 (not counting null ballots, which amounted to nearly 12% of the overall.) 

Even Valérie Pécresse says that she will not vote for Le Pen, and is urging her supporters not to do so.  Click here and scroll down to "20:23 L’essentiel" to read more (in French). 

It is worth noting, however, that things are different now than in 2017.  First, Le Pen has pivoted slightly, moderating some of her more radical ideas.  Also, Macron managed to alienate many people with his domestic agenda over the past five years (proposed fuel surcharges, social reforms, suggested changes to la retraite, perceived ineffectiveness during the coronavirus confinement, etc.)  Finally, Zemmour and other rightist candidates have pledged to support Le Pen, which gives many RN supporters hope. 

I'd still guess that Macron gets reelected to a second five-year mandat.  Time will tell.

Bon courage.

I wish you a good time.
Here's to hoping for Le Pen being stopped.

[jaichind]

Interesting thread.  I haven't visited this forum for at least six years but I was searching for discussion of the French election and encountered this.  I see some familiar names.  Cheers.

I'll add my two cents.  Although I'm not an expert on French politics, I read French newspapers fairly regularly and I watch French television news probably three or four times per week, mostly on the elliptical.  The predictions from the talking heads are mostly that the second tour will be a rematch of 2017 but with a tighter results.  Predictions range from 51-49 to 55-45.  Remember that 2017 was 66-44 (not counting null ballots, which amounted to nearly 12% of the overall.)  

Even Valérie Pécresse says that she will not vote for Le Pen, and is urging her supporters not to do so.  Click here and scroll down to "20:23 L’essentiel" to read more (in French).  

It is worth noting, however, that things are different now than in 2017.  First, Le Pen has pivoted slightly, moderating some of her more radical ideas.  Also, Macron managed to alienate many people with his domestic agenda over the past five years (proposed fuel surcharges, social reforms, suggested changes to la retraite, perceived ineffectiveness during the coronavirus confinement, etc.)  Finally, Zemmour and other rightist candidates have pledged to support Le Pen, which gives many RN supporters hope.  

One interesting graphic from Le Monde shows how their support is at an all-time high:



I'd still guess that Macron gets reelected to a second five-year mandat.  Time will tell.

Bon courage.

On the graphic, I thought it was the father and not the daughter that ran in 2007.

[Continential]

Interesting thread.  I haven't visited this forum for at least six years but I was searching for discussion of the French election and encountered this.  I see some familiar names.  Cheers.

Despite joining after you and only seeing you in old threads, I hope you stay.

[Oryxslayer]

Macron unsurprisingly is going to go 5 for 5 on the mainland Fillon '17 departments. Macron's coalition has visibly gotten more metropolitan, and Melenchon isn't the only one losing rural support.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Macron unsurprisingly is going to go 5 for 5 on the mainland Fillon '17 departments. Macron's coalition has visibly gotten more metropolitan, and Melenchon isn't the only one losing rural support.

No votes have come in yet from Paris.
Can we expect Melenchon to gain further ground from Le Pen when Paris' results come in?

[angus]

Jaichind.  Good eye!  

It seems to be an error.  I got it from a legit source that does not make them often, but according to Wikipedia it was in fact Jean-Marie Le Pen, and not Marine Le Pen, who ran in 2007.  I might just email Le Monde and ask them about that.

Edit:  Ah, ha!  Someone must have beat me to it.  It now appears like this: