French presidential election, 2022 (user search)
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Author Topic: French presidential election, 2022  (Read 123774 times)
President Punxsutawney Phil
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« on: April 24, 2021, 06:43:29 AM »
« edited: April 24, 2021, 10:02:04 AM by Hash »

Now less than one year away.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #1 on: April 24, 2021, 08:32:59 PM »

Is it so that Macron's best hope is if he is up against Le Pen, and vice versa is also true?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2021, 06:14:50 PM »

Is anyone besides Hidalgo, PS or otherwise, running in the socialist primary? Not that it matters much in the grand scheme of things.

The socialist primary was last weekend and she beated Le Foll, agriculture minister under Hollande, who then refused to endorse her.
Ah, the French left, epitomizing the Fraternity in "Liberty, Equality, Fraternity" to the T.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #3 on: November 30, 2021, 11:49:58 AM »



Here's the video, if anyone's interested.
(just use auto-translation into English if need be)
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #4 on: December 01, 2021, 07:48:46 PM »

Cleaned up the thread, without infractions. Keep it civil and clean.
Just going to say, as the OP, I would like to redouble this request from our moderator. Thank you. Merci.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #5 on: December 05, 2021, 04:56:13 PM »
« Edited: December 05, 2021, 05:01:39 PM by Southern Delegate Punxsutawney Phil »

Supposedly Zemmour is Jewish and yet he spreads anti-Semitic memes about Dreyfus having been guilty and he supports the French collaboration with the Nazis in Vichy France under Petain.

My theory is that Zemmour, while inarguably Jewish, sees Dreyfus as a man of the left, and because he's a man of the left, it's okay to think something uncharitable about him.
He could care less about what the Right of a ten dozen years ago said about Dreyfus. He cares about the political affiliation of Dreyfus' defenders. This is what happens when you place left-right tribalism over literally everything else.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #6 on: December 18, 2021, 01:28:54 PM »

Wonderful job. Lol.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #7 on: January 20, 2022, 06:06:13 AM »

Well, where are the people who put Hollande over the top in 2012? Who are they supporting now?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #8 on: January 21, 2022, 05:40:57 PM »

What chance is there currently that when all is said and done, Le Pen misses the second round?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #9 on: February 08, 2022, 01:46:59 PM »

Does "Panzergirl" refer to Marine Le Pen? I'm just curious what the origin of this nickname is since I haven't heard it before.

Yes it is. As for the origin, I think it's a reference to her dad, but I forgot exactly what it was.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #10 on: February 27, 2022, 06:26:24 PM »


Quote
I have decided to provide a republican endorsement to Emmanuel Macron in view of the upcoming presidential election. He’s the only one in my view able, through a second five-year term, to rebuild the country and to give back a meaning to politics.

If someone had told me in 2002 that, twenty years later, Chevènement would have endorsed in the presidential first round the candidate supported by both Alain Madelin and Robert Hue in the 2017 presidential first round because he’s the only one able to ‘give back a meaning in politics’...
How big is this news?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #11 on: March 19, 2022, 07:40:36 PM »


Melenchon in third place. only 3.5 points behind Lepen now

This poll tempts me to switch to Melenchon if I was a French voter. Reason being: Le Pen is actually in danger of not reaching the second round. Macron entering looks guaranteed, so if you want to shut out Le Pen, hope for Melenchon to do well - he would keep the far-right out of the runoff.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #12 on: March 31, 2022, 08:08:16 PM »

Interesting that even if Le Pen has a much greater chance of winning than in 2017, the world isn't freaking out as much.

2017 was just a year after the Trump and Brexit victories. There was very much a feeling and a media narrative at the time that the conservative and nationalist (far-)right was an unstoppable force that would sweep every election the Western world.

Today that fear/belief has been discredited and while we still see strong performances from the Trumpist sorts of candidates/parties, it has been proven in elections not only that left-wing and centrist candidates or parties can still win elections, but also that the far-right can loose ground and loose support.
These things tend to be heavily informed by the events of the past 24 to 48 months. Humans have never been able to escape being driven partially by short-term events.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #13 on: April 04, 2022, 02:38:07 PM »

What these polling numbers might do however, is start to raise alarm among the big crowd of people who have so far indicated that they won't vote in the second round. Especially since the polling is still indicating record breaking abstention, which probably is the biggest question mark around the numbers we are seeing at this point.

Because, for all an angry and disillusioned left wing voter can comfort themselves in a second round abstention when the polling is 55-45, when its 52-48 then you have to start asking yourselves some serious questions.

All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.
Precisely why I've always been of the mind I'd vote for Macron in the second round against Le Pen if I was a French person.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #14 on: April 08, 2022, 02:23:35 PM »
« Edited: April 08, 2022, 02:29:00 PM by Southern Delegate Punxsutawney Phil »

I would challenge the notion that France is a uniquely racist country. Upwards of 80% of French people, when polled, said they would not mind a Muslim neighbor.
Source
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #15 on: April 10, 2022, 12:15:33 PM »

FWIW, most polls showed that turnout intentions were lowest among left-wingers.
That should not be the slightest bit shocking.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #16 on: April 10, 2022, 12:19:58 PM »



This is rhe live-stream I'm following.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #17 on: April 10, 2022, 12:36:11 PM »

Is the poll leaked to La Libre legitimate?

No, it's bunk, it's purely released to piss off Hashemite.
So La Libre releases bunk polls every election year?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #18 on: April 10, 2022, 01:02:01 PM »

Hidalgo at only 2.1%. Good lord.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #19 on: April 10, 2022, 01:04:13 PM »

Zemmour and Pecresse are so pathetic, lol.
Look at how badly they did!
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #20 on: April 10, 2022, 01:06:04 PM »

Only ahead far-left duo (Poutou and Artaud). Bad day at Solferino!
It seems that voters gravitated towards the top 3.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #21 on: April 10, 2022, 02:18:56 PM »

Cotes-d'Armor (located in Brittany) is tracking well with the overall national vote.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #22 on: April 10, 2022, 02:23:15 PM »

In Var and Alpes-Maritimes, Zemmour is getting 13% and 13.2%, respectively; this is roughly double his national percentage. Makes sense he does best here (many Pied-Noirs ended up here).
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #23 on: April 10, 2022, 02:35:20 PM »

Cotes-d'Armor (located in Brittany) is tracking well with the overall national vote.

It'll get more Macron - like most of Brittney just base on what we have seem previously. Most of the places with big uncounted areas right now are populous ones favoring Macron. And the Breton provinces are well more LREM than the nation.
When all the votes are counted - which place can we expect to track best with the overall national vote?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #24 on: April 10, 2022, 02:41:12 PM »

In 2017, local favourite son Fillon won Sarthe with 29%. So far, Macron is at 26% there (up 6), Le Pen at 34% (up 13) and Pécresse at... 6% (down 23).
If Pecresse could expect a native daughter effect anywhere, it would probably be in Yvelines. She has 8.2% there, with 44 of 259 communes reporting.
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