Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

What would this data imply? I get the primary part, it shows that many non-voters are coming into the election, but what about the ages? What was it like in 2016/2014?

I don't know any specific #s for 2016/2014. Unfortunately TX has pretty bad/limited data.

Generally, it probably suggests what you would think it would - if those voters are younger, then probably the voters without primary voting history skew a bit more Dem. No doubt there are also many Rs among them, though.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What would this data imply? I get the primary part, it shows that many non-voters are coming into the election, but what about the ages? What was it like in 2016/2014?

I don't know any specific #s for 2016/2014. Unfortunately TX has pretty bad/limited data.

Generally, it probably suggests what you would think it would - if those voters are younger, then probably the voters without primary voting history skew a bit more Dem. No doubt there are also many Rs among them, though.

In any election, younger voters will be more likely than older ones to have no primary history, simply because they've had fewer opportunities.

[Virginiá]

Shouldn't all young voters in Texas be presumed to be absurdly Democratic? That is how their presidential votes tend to be. They are arguably more Democratic than old people (65+) are Republican.

[2016]

Regarding Florida...READ THIS

https://thefloridasqueeze.com/2018/10/23/florida-vote-projection-model-day-12-first-two-days-of-early-voting-might-give-democrats-false-hope/

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/shared/M2JX5DDC9

Trotter projects that when all is said and done in FL Early Voting Democrats will lead by 3.05% going into Election Day BUT it could be far less cuz 35 Counties are missing and only 1 voted for Hillary (Osceola).

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

TX Early vote in person data has been updated by the Secretary of State.

https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2018/oct23.shtml

Here is a comparison of Day 2 to Day 1:



The jumps in Brazos County (College Station) and Jefferson County (Beaumont) are notable. In Brazos, that might be good (or at least good-ish) if that jump is Texas A&M students, otherwise good for Republicans. In Jefferson, there is a large black population but also a large Conservative white population. So could be good or bad depending on who that is that is surging there.

And a comparison of Day 2 in 2018 to Day 2 in 2016:



Harris is lower than 2016 in comparison to other counties because of voter suppression by the Republican County Clerk, who is apparently closing the polls there several hours earlier than everywhere else in TX.

These graphs are in person votes only.

[Brittain33]

Jefferson County is the oddball to have high relative turnout. Williamson doesn't surprise me because of the education and affluence there, and could indicate both Republican and Democratic strength.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harris is lower than 2016 in comparison to other counties because of voter suppression by the Republican County Clerk, who is apparently closing the polls there several hours earlier than everywhere else in TX.

Can you provide more details on this?

[Ebsy]

High energy blacks voting in Jefferson County? Betomania!

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Harris is lower than 2016 in comparison to other counties because of voter suppression by the Republican County Clerk, who is apparently closing the polls there several hours earlier than everywhere else in TX.

Can you provide more details on this?

https://twitter.com/trowaman/status/1055086502047301632

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Here is another graph that someone else made for TX:

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1055151219474382849




One thing to note though is that so far today in Tarrant County (Fort Worth), turnout seems to be lower than yesterday so far.

http://access.tarrantcounty.com/en/elections/Upcoming-Election-Information/Live_Turn_Out_Widget.html

For example, 3,894 from 10-11 today, compared to 4,756 yesterday at the same hour yesterday.

So if other counties have that same trend, then turnout may be a bit lower today. and we may start to fall more behind 2016.

[Ebsy]

Republicans must be getting pretty desperate if they are resorting to dirty tricks like that.

[Gass3268]

Other than Texas (because it's so big), people need to stop comparing turnout this year to 2016. That's comparing apples to oranges.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

High energy blacks voting in Jefferson County? Betomania!

Hmmm, ok I figured out Jefferson County.

The day 2 # on the Secretary of State website is an error. If you check at the Jefferson County website, you can see that 13,471 is the number of CUMULATIVE in person votes, so that includes the day 1 numbers as well. The day 2 number for Jefferson County SHOULD be 6,374, not 13,471.

https://www.jeffersonelections.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/EARLY-VOTING-TURNOUT-11-06-18.pdf

[Antonio the Sixth]

So I gather the Democrats' overall lead in Nevada right now is around 5%, correct?

Then, two things. How does that compare to 1. voter registration in the State, and 2. the Democrats'  lead in the early vote as of this time in 2016 and 2010?

[Ebsy]

High energy blacks voting in Jefferson County? Betomania!

Hmmm, ok I figured out Jefferson County.

The day 2 # on the Secretary of State website is an error. If you check at the Jefferson County website, you can see that 13,471 is the number of CUMULATIVE in person votes, so that includes the day 1 numbers as well. The day 2 number for Jefferson County SHOULD be 6,374, not 13,471.

https://www.jeffersonelections.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/EARLY-VOTING-TURNOUT-11-06-18.pdf

Thanks for checking that.

[Xing]

So I gather the Democrats' overall lead in Nevada right now is around 5%, correct?

Then, two things. How does that compare to 1. voter registration in the State, and 2. the Democrats'  lead in the early vote as of this time in 2016 and 2010?

1. Democrats have a 7-point registration advantage, so Republicans are overperforming a bit compared to that, but according to Ralston, that's to be expected.

2. I can't calculate that exactly, but I know that Democrats had a 75K lead in Clark in 2016, and a 25K lead in 2010.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Tom Bonier of TargetSmart on the early vote data he has (and media not interpreting it very well):

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1055166382453768193

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1055167322925731840

Keep in mind that the data on TargetSmart right now is still ridiculously incomplete - it only has 200k votes at the moment, 75% of which are still mail votes. Whereas in the top 30 counties alone, 1,187,007 votes have already been cast in TX, along with many more in smaller counties.

[Antonio the Sixth]

2. I can't calculate that exactly, but I know that Democrats had a 75K lead in Clark in 2016, and a 25K lead in 2010.

...that's at the end of early voting, right? If they had a 25K lead AT THIS POINT in 2010 then we're royally screwed.

[Gass3268]

2. I can't calculate that exactly, but I know that Democrats had a 75K lead in Clark in 2016, and a 25K lead in 2010.

...that's at the end of early voting, right? If they had a 25K lead AT THIS POINT in 2010 then we're royally screwed.

Pretty sure he means end of the early vote cycle.

[Gass3268]

Democrats did better in today's update in Arizona:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1055177381441224704

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1055177752565866496

[Gass3268]

Also here's Steve Schale on Florida:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1055171328368631808

[riceowl]

Anecdotal!
The line at the fiesta in Houston where i vote is the longest it’s ever been for me.

[Xing]

2. I can't calculate that exactly, but I know that Democrats had a 75K lead in Clark in 2016, and a 25K lead in 2010.

...that's at the end of early voting, right? If they had a 25K lead AT THIS POINT in 2010 then we're royally screwed.

Pretty sure he means end of the early vote cycle.

Yes, at the end of the cycle my apologies for not making that clearer. Democrats have a 10K advantage overall in Clark, so they're definitely on their way to beat the 2010 number, though some of that could be due to population growth.

[2016]

Republicans padding their lead in Arizona...was 62K over Democrats yesterday, now it's 76K

Overall
Republicans 291,509
Democrats 214,656
Independents 147,416

Difference: 76,853

Maricopa
Republicans 199,178
Democrats 133,020
Independents 96,227

Difference: 66,158

Pima
Republicans 43,199
Democrats 51,953
Independents 27,212

Difference: 8,754

Overall 657,148 Votes have been cast in AZ.

[Gass3268]

Republicans padding their lead in Arizona...was 62K over Democrats yesterday, now it's 76K

Overall
Republicans 291,509
Democrats 214,656
Independents 147,416

Difference: 76,853

Maricopa
Republicans 199,178
Democrats 133,020
Independents 96,227

Difference: 66,158

Pima
Republicans 43,199
Democrats 51,953
Independents 27,212

Difference: 8,754

Overall 657,148 Votes have been cast in AZ.

Even though their % lead dropped.