Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Antonio the Sixth]

oh please god no

After 2016 I don't want to hear a f**king word about early voting ever again (except if it's about Nevada and from Jon Ralston, I guess).

[Antonio the Sixth]

NV starts today, and I’ll certainly be watching Ralston’s Twitter. As he says, early voting is the most accurate poll in NV.

Yeah, looking forward to that if nothing else.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Turnout hit 30K in Clark, Democrats with a 15-point advantage there too (48.4%-33.6%), and a raw vote lead of about 4.5K.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1053879074802753536

What was the advantage in 2016?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why is 2016 not a good barometer? It actually had competitive races unlike 2014.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'd like to see a more systematic comparison of NV figures to previous years. So far it all sounds pretty impressionistic.

My guess would also be that 2010 is the best basis of comparison, but the big caveat is that the electorate has grown quite a bit since then. Maybe % of registered voters would be a better metric than raw votes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So I gather the Democrats' overall lead in Nevada right now is around 5%, correct?

Then, two things. How does that compare to 1. voter registration in the State, and 2. the Democrats'  lead in the early vote as of this time in 2016 and 2010?

[Antonio the Sixth]

2. I can't calculate that exactly, but I know that Democrats had a 75K lead in Clark in 2016, and a 25K lead in 2010.

...that's at the end of early voting, right? If they had a 25K lead AT THIS POINT in 2010 then we're royally screwed.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any news on how the rurals are turning out in Nevada?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Current D lead in Clark (so called firewall) is 12,5k

Current statewide lead 4400 but it will come down after absentees from Nye are distributed and when they update other rurals still missing from yesterday (most notably Nye and Lyon).

Numbers to hit according to Ralston are 35k and 15k

I'm thinking that Rs could win the day today in Washoe.

...wait, yesterday it was 4200 before the rurals and then the rurals brought it down to like the mid 3000s. If today is 4400 before the rurals it basically means Democrats' lead is basically unchanged. And unchanged in raw terms means it shrunk in % terms. This is very, very concerning honestly.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yes, now they're in, so it's 3243 lead for Dems now statewide.

Holy f**king sh*t this is a disaster.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yes, now they're in, so it's 3243 lead for Dems now statewide.

Holy f**king sh*t this is a disaster.

Chill. They're still ahead and treading water. If they end up behind statewide, then maybe it'll be time to worry.

ED vote is typically Republican in NV. Ralston said Democrats need to build up a 15K lead in early voting to be ahead. They're nowhere near on track to.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yes, now they're in, so it's 3243 lead for Dems now statewide.

Holy f**king sh*t this is a disaster.

Chill. They're still ahead and treading water. If they end up behind statewide, then maybe it'll be time to worry.

ED vote is typically Republican in NV. Ralston said Democrats need to build up a 15K lead in early voting to be ahead. They're nowhere near on track to.

Except voting behavior is erratic and doesn't follow a trend or a mode over the course of a week, as each day is characteristically different, and every week is also characteristically different as election day nears. Take a breather and think, my friend.

Oh come on. We have seen a clear pattern throughout these days, even if there are minor fluctuations from day to day. You know I'm not a concern troll, but at some point you have to take a serious look at the data.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yes, now they're in, so it's 3243 lead for Dems now statewide.

Holy f**king sh*t this is a disaster.

Chill. They're still ahead and treading water. If they end up behind statewide, then maybe it'll be time to worry.

ED vote is typically Republican in NV. Ralston said Democrats need to build up a 15K lead in early voting to be ahead. They're nowhere near on track to.

Except voting behavior is erratic and doesn't follow a trend or a mode over the course of a week, as each day is characteristically different, and every week is also characteristically different as election day nears. Take a breather and think, my friend.

Oh come on. We have seen a clear pattern throughout these days, even if there are minor fluctuations from day to day. You know I'm not a concern troll, but at some point you have to take a serious look at the data.

That is a serious look at the data. Read my response again.

No, "that" is just rationalizing a negative data point as "whatever, things change". Sure things can change, but extrapolating from NV early voting has been pretty spot on for the past 4 election cycles, so extrapolating from these bad results that Democrats are not doing great seems reasonable.

Of course Rosen and Sisolak aren't doomed or anything, but this doesn't justify the level of confidence some posters are having about this race.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This thread is EVERYTHING that is wrong with atlas. We spent weeks before early voting opened warning each other how stupid it is to make predictions off of EV and yet that’s exactly what we’re doing here. Shut the computer off and read a book.

I agree with you about every other State (and as you can see I'm not commenting on the TX or FL or GA numbers), but Nevada is the exception that proves the rule.

[Antonio the Sixth]

@Antonio Whatever the data says right now, I still think it's worth saying that there is no point getting worked up about this. Just let early voting run its course and then go over the data as a whole. I can only really speak for myself, but I remember getting excited about early voting in 2016, and it was disappointing in the end (albeit not necessarily proportionately disappointing across the country).

Again, what you are saying is absolutely true for every single State except Nevada.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Of course Rosen and Sisolak aren't doomed or anything, but this doesn't justify the level of confidence some posters are having about this race.

Please tell me NV Dems are not going to blow this. I should be able to be supremely confident about NV. This is not 2010 or 2014, the national environment is good and demographics have continued to shift Dem more quickly in NV than anywhere else. I don't want to have to worry about NV, and shouldn't have to. WTF is wrong with them if this is even a question?

This is exactly what I'm wondering right now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Can the mods please ban any further discussion about NV in this thread thanks

Nevada is the only state that's actually worth discussing in this thread.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Can the mods please ban any further discussion about NV in this thread thanks

Nevada is the only state that's actually worth discussing in this thread.

Arizona and Florida are worth discussing too. The vast majority of votes in Arizona will be cast via mail-in ballot.

Arizona? Maybe. Florida? Not after 2016.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Am I the only one who finds it odd that many people say they've learned from their mistakes in trusting political analysts...without considering that maybe the analysts have learned something from their own mistakes?

They might, but I'm not going to just trust them on it without evidence. Trust must be earned.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So, when are we getting today's Clark numbers?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Democrats had a good day in Clark. Won by 11% (45.4-34.4, 11.9K to 9K in terms of votes), added 2.9K to the freiwal, 26.1K total voted.

Firewall up to 18K. Tomorrow will be a big day for the Dems, Ralston is suggesting the culinary union has a GOTV push starting here.

God I hope so. It's still a long way to 35K.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ralston still sounds skeptical that Democrat can get the Clark Freiwal to 35K, just saying that it seems "possible". Since they are at 21.5K with 6 days to go, they'd need to add 2250 every day to get there. This seems pretty attainable to me given that week 2 has generally better numbers for Democrats. Am I missing something?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Does anyone know why those days tend to be relatively good for Rs in Clark?

Probably catch-up from the weekend, since polling places were closed in the rurals.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Does anyone know why those days tend to be relatively good for Rs in Clark?

Probably catch-up from the weekend, since polling places were closed in the rurals.

Talking about Clark specifically.

Oh, sorry. I'm not sure either, I guess they're just lower-turnout days in general.

[Antonio the Sixth]

All right, so if they can break 3K for each of the next 3 days we'll get to 40K. Good.