Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Omega21]

Can’t Ukraine launch a counter attack on the airport?

With the Chechens & Russians there, highly doubt it, as I am not sure they can afford to extend forces that wide around Kyiv.

They do have some lighter AA in the city itself (Strela 10s) and maybe even medium range (BUK etc.), so it might make a Russian air landing costly.

At what point does this stop? By the time this is all over with, the precedents set today will be used as justification for genocide tomorrow. Your worries are understandable, and I know full well this is a risky move…but the alternative is simply just as bad, if not worse. We face a critical decision today, do we take a huge risk now, or do we punt the football to the next generation and the next, with the world becoming progressively more bleak with each passing year?

I mean, no, the alternative is not as bad.

There is a reason all the people surrounding your President who know their sh**t in terms of geopolitcs and defense arent even daring to mention this.

A nuclear war, or a very very serious risk of nuclear war, is not worse than Kiev being bombed.

Yes, Nukes are the trump card and allow you to do horrible things without real risk of those things being done to you, but thats simply the sad post Nuclear reality. Reality is not fair, just, or good, it simply is so.

[President Johnson]

Just heard on CNN that Russia has destroyed the dam northwest of Kiev.

Is there another Source?

I think I already read this earlier this morning or heard it on radio.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Just heard on CNN that Russia has destroyed the dam northwest of Kiev.

Is there another Source?

Haven't seen anything yet on my regular subscription outlets (NYT, WP, WSJ) nor on the CNN website.

Could be that I misheard or it was framed as a hypothetical or misinformation crept in from Ukranian gvt sources?

Would imagine if true we would see this story gain more traction....

Take with giant bucket of salt, but certainly if Russia were to destroy the dam would be significant civilian impacts...

Western media sources are particularly susceptible to Ukrainian govt misinformation. But I don't think this can be completely ruled out either. Fog of war makes a lot of things unclear, as you and I both know.
It is not unheard of for dams or similar things to be attacked and destroyed in times of war. I remember hearing that in 1940, the Dutch burst their dikes in a desperate attempt to keep the Nazis from sweeping through their country. Of course, that's not an apples-to-apples comparison to this, just a sign to the imaginativeness in dealing destruction that humans can wield when war occurs.

[NOVA Green]

We should sanction the hell out of Belarus too and fund a potential coop there

Doesn't Belarus still have farmer cooperatives from the old Soviet days?

Wouldn't surprise me.
Lukashenka has long tried to maintain stability relative to the Soviet status quo.

Speaking of Belarus, one drunk Belarusian soldier (accidentally?) walked into Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1497508010926690312?s=20&t=cUwMMC...

Someone had too much vodka...

Good thing that Ukranian Vodka these days are all going towards molotov cocktails and not into the gullets of the Ukranian Military and Civilian and Paramilitary defenders.

[Person Man]

https://mobile.twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1497681460022562816

Buratinos were seen entering Ukraine today. I hope to God they will not be used on cities.

Unlike other MLRS systems, it is a heavy thermobaric weapon .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZiqS_k754oQ

It’s time to declare war. This is an inexcusable crime against humanity, and if we do not act now, we forever set the precedent that countries with nuclear weapons can massacre whomever they please with no tangible repercussions.

No reports yet of them being used on urban areas, and I hope it stays that way, but I guess we will see.

Anyway, you are understandably emotional about this, but frying the entire human race with nukes is no better alternative to this.

At what point does this stop? By the time this is all over with, the precedents set today will be used as justification for genocide tomorrow. Your worries are understandable, and I know full well this is a risky move…but the alternative is simply just as bad, if not worse. We face a critical decision today, do we take a huge risk now, or do we punt the football to the next generation and the next, with the world becoming progressively more bleak with each passing year?

Pretty much. Since about the early 2000s, it’s becoming a situation where we need to take a dump or get off the toilet before the decision is made for us.

[urutzizu]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BMDV_bund/status/1497680915060989953

Germany is implementing closing airspace to Russia, ahead of imminent EU decision. As with the Eastern European Countries+UK which implement it already, it will almost certainly lead to a reciprocal response from Russia.

It is absolutely massive for global travel. This means that flights to Asia are going to get longer and more expensive. It also will be a massive boost for Istanbul/Turkish Airlines and Qatar/Emirates, because the Transit traffic will go that way. But most importantly, even during the cold war there was direct flight traffic between the western bloc and the east. It ends tomorrow.

(It could be that they get around this by permitting non-russian, non-european carriers to serve the route directly, but usually this is not allowed)

[Storr]

Kyiv's importance as the capital aside, this map illustrates:

1. The importance of successfully defending Chernihiv has in limiting the number of routes available to the Russians when advancing toward Kyiv.  

2. Just how vital it is for the Ukrainians to stop the Russian advance in the south from linking up with the separatist regions
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497688642583683076?s=20&t=-W5ZTWB...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

We should sanction the hell out of Belarus too and fund a potential coop there

Doesn't Belarus still have farmer cooperatives from the old Soviet days?

Wouldn't surprise me.
Lukashenka has long tried to maintain stability relative to the Soviet status quo.

Speaking of Belarus, one drunk Belarusian soldier (accidentally?) walked into Ukraine.

<tweet snip>

Someone had too much vodka...

Evidently Putin is (likely?) planning to bring the Belarusian military into the war. Presumably its forces would be used for an attack on western Ukraine from Belarus. I can't imagine Belarusian morale is all that great currently. I'd get drunk too, to be honest.

Belarus going into the war would probably be a net negative for Russia, if we're being honest with ourselves. Friendly neutral Belarus means Russia has a safe zone that Ukraine can't go in, which could make for a lot if Ukraine does a very good job defending. Ukraine is very unlikely to provoke Belarus, so it's probably safe to assume that Belarus is only going to enter the war if Russia asks such.

[NOVA Green]

Just heard on CNN that Russia has destroyed the dam northwest of Kiev.

Is there another Source?

I think I already read this earlier this morning or heard it on radio.

Well sounds like a Russia missile headed for the dam was shot down 11 hours ago... so not implausible since sounds like Russia has it on their target list of acceptable military options.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/ukraine-says-russian-missile-headed-for-water-reservoir-near-kyiv-shot-down/

[Omega21]

Unconfirmed, season with a bit of salt.

https://twitter.com/AntonioTwitt3r/status/1497693083999383553

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Some more details are coming out about the third sanction package the EU is working on. Apparently, it's not only an exclusion of Swift, EU also seeks to freeze all foreign exchange reserves of the Russian Central Bank and oligarchs, making their money worthless. This is definitely big stuff.

(I'm sorry this is in German, just couldn't find a report in English that quick).

https://twitter.com/markuspreiss/status/1497657994120773632

They should also sanction the oligarch's children. Most of them attend western universities and them being forced back to Russia would hurt their oligarch parents.

[NOVA Green]

Ten people of "Greek origin" were killed by airstrikes per New York Times:

Ten civilians “of Greek origin” were killed by Russian airstrikes near the city of Mariupol, on Ukraine’s southeastern coast, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis of Greece said on Twitter. “Stop the bombing now!” he wrote. Earlier Saturday, Greece’s Foreign Ministry summoned Russia’s ambassador in Athens.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Wait now I’m seeing on Twitter that Kadyrov just posted a video saying that they are “pulling out of Russia’s war”

[It’s so Joever]

Wait now I’m seeing on Twitter that Kadyrov just posted a video saying that they are “pulling out of Russia’s war”

Could be fake.

[John Dule]

They should also sanction the oligarch's children. Most of them attend western universities and them being forced back to Russia would hurt their oligarch parents.

I would support this, provided that it isn't expanded to what the stupidest human being in the country proposed recently.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Thread by Estonian member of the European Parliment and former head of Estonian armed forces:

https://twitter.com/RihoTerras/status/1497537207036518402

[It’s so Joever]

They should also sanction the oligarch's children. Most of them attend western universities and them being forced back to Russia would hurt their oligarch parents.

I would support this, provided that it isn't expanded to what the stupidest human being in the country proposed recently.

WTF

[Person Man]

Unconfirmed, season with a bit of salt.

https://twitter.com/AntonioTwitt3r/status/1497693083999383553

It might be beginning…(the cyber war)

[Omega21]

Wait now I’m seeing on Twitter that Kadyrov just posted a video saying that they are “pulling out of Russia’s war”

Could be propaganda.

IF, by some miracle, it is true, that is a huge blow to Putin. Kadyrow has been one of his most loyal supporters.

But we really need to wait for more info on this.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://mobile.twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1497681460022562816

Buratinos were seen entering Ukraine today. I hope to God they will not be used on cities.

Unlike other MLRS systems, it is a heavy thermobaric weapon .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZiqS_k754oQ

It’s time to declare war. This is an inexcusable crime against humanity, and if we do not act now, we forever set the precedent that countries with nuclear weapons can massacre whomever they please with no tangible repercussions.

No reports yet of them being used on urban areas, and I hope it stays that way, but I guess we will see.

Anyway, you are understandably emotional about this, but frying the entire human race with nukes is no better alternative to this.

At what point does this stop? By the time this is all over with, the precedents set today will be used as justification for genocide tomorrow. Your worries are understandable, and I know full well this is a risky move…but the alternative is simply just as bad, if not worse. We face a critical decision today, do we take a huge risk now, or do we punt the football to the next generation and the next, with the world becoming progressively more bleak with each passing year?

The precedent of MLRS usage in urban areas is much older than this war.

[Omega21]

Reminder:

Remain hopeful, but not naive

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1497694724144218114

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1497697836418449410?s=20&t=yon4UI-bG...

[urutzizu]

It's happening:

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/STATEMENT_22_1423

European Commission, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the United States joint statement:

The following measures will be brought forward:
1) Disconnection of certain Russian banks from SWIFT
2) Russia central bank assets paralized
3) Russian oligarchs assets frozen on EU market

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/YoungLabourUK/status/1497149945123647498

Lol

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Reminder:

Remain hopeful, but not naive

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1497694724144218114

It's not really helpful that both sides in this war have many of the same equipment. (Not really surprising, since they both are descended from the Soviet Red Army)