Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Russia strikes Moldovan and Panamanian owned / registered ships in the Black Sea:

"Missiles strike ships in the Black Sea, Ukrainian company says

By Marisa Iati3:22 p.m.

A cargo ship and an oil tanker off the southern tip of Ukraine in the Black Sea were struck by missiles Friday, sparking fires, a Ukrainian shipping company said.

At about 12:10 p.m. local time, missiles hit the bunker of the Moldovan-registered vessel Millennium Spirit, according to a statement from Vladimir Ivantsov, manager of Stark Shipping Ukraine.

The ship was targeted, Ivantsov said, because it was carrying about 600 metric tons of fuel for Ukrainian forces.

...."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/26/russia-ukraine-war-news-updates/#link-7K2JK66TAJAXTK5GF7OBO6XA5U

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Good profile of the rising strength of civilian volunteers and militia groups in the defense of Kiev.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/26/world/europe/ukraine-russia-civilian-military.html

Here's a good example of an article that is intended as a positive piece towards Ukraine but in reality is not positive at all and shows that they are still in deep trouble. If arming the civilian population were the optimal way for Ukraine to defend itself, why bother having an army at all? Why would Ukraine use its cities as fortifications, giving some credibility towards Russian accusations of "human shields" (that the Americans have also used BTW), if they were capable stopping the Russians before reaching the cities and protecting their population from harm, which is what their army should hope to do? Desperate times call for desperate measures, sure, Ukraine has to try everything at this point, but spinning the desperate measures as some kind of win is the realm of propaganda.

And you would know!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Idk how accurate this is

https://mobile.twitter.com/globalismstan/status/1497663038232530944

That's if you uncritically believe Ukrainian estimates of Russian fatalities, which there's no good reason to this early in the war. If those estimates were accurate, Ukraine would be inflicting casualties at a 10:1 ratio, which would mean Russia was not advancing as fast as they are most likely.

Honestly, this feel-good that Ukraine is putting out might lull the West into complacency. "We have it under control guys! But still, please send us more arms!"

[It’s so Joever]

Chechen forces raise Russian flag over Hostomel Airport next to Kyiv


https://twitter.com/Himat75/status/1497644567050571782

Of course the Chechens were the one to finish the job...

Yikes, Kyiv will fall with the airport gone.

[Aurelius]

Idk how accurate this is

https://mobile.twitter.com/globalismstan/status/1497663038232530944

That's if you uncritically believe Ukrainian estimates of Russian fatalities, which there's no good reason to this early in the war. If those estimates were accurate, Ukraine would be inflicting casualties at a 10:1 ratio, which would mean Russia was not advancing as fast as they are most likely.

Honestly, this feel-good that Ukraine is putting out might lull the West into complacency. "We have it under control guys! But still, please send us more arms!"

Doubt it. Even Germany has donated a bunch of equipment in the last few hours. Tiny countries like Slovakia are punching way above their weight in material aid. I would like to hope that European and American leaders are smart enough to distinguish Ukrainian internal morale-boosting propaganda from reality.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Might as well send the French Foreign Legion under a Bonaparte while they're at it!

https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1497674503194828801

[President Johnson]

BREAKING: EU closes entire airspace for Russian planes, German news just report. I'm really impressed how fast and decisive the EU is acting, when decision making usually takes a very long time and compromises. Putin has unified EU and Transatlantic Alliance to a level nobody thought possible.

https://twitter.com/MatthiasDeiss/status/1497671385686196228

[Aurelius]

BREAKING: EU closes entire airspace for Russian planes, German news just report.

https://twitter.com/MatthiasDeiss/status/1497671385686196228

Good to hear. Finland was the last major bordering country with open airspace, and Russia might have retaliated it they'd closed their airspace themselves. EU doing it as a bloc gives Finland cover.

[Storr]

Idk how accurate this is

https://mobile.twitter.com/globalismstan/status/1497663038232530944

Almost need a meme for the Virgin Putin at this point.

There's the Classic Virgin Putin v. Chad Stalin meme:

[NOVA Green]

And the boycott of Russian owned activities is now impacting British Football...

"Chelsea’s Owner Distances Himself From Club Amid Scrutiny of Russian Investments

LONDON—Roman Abramovich, the Russian billionaire owner of English soccer club Chelsea FC, said Saturday that he would turn over “stewardship and care” of the team to the trustees of the club’s charitable foundation as the U.K. cracks down on Russian investment.

Mr. Abramovich, who has owned Chelsea since 2003 and turned it into one of the juggernauts of European soccer through lavish spending, made the decision to distance himself from his most public asset just days after the U.K. announced initial sanctions against Russia following the country’s invasion of Ukraine. Under the arrangement, he would remain Chelsea’s owner.

“I believe that currently they are in the best position to look after the interests of the club, players, staff and fans,” he wrote of the trustees in a brief statement.

Though Mr. Abramovich wasn’t one of the Russian oligarchs targeted by the U.K. government this week, he did butt heads with Prime Minister Theresa May’s administration in 2018, when it blocked his British visa renewal. That led Mr. Abramovich, who is no longer based in London, to cancel plans to spend more than $1 billion on building Chelsea a new stadium in the British capital.

...."


https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-02-26/card/chelsea-s-owner-distances-himself-from-club-amid-scrutiny-of-russian-investments-946GhhzayNRz0o5YC25g

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Idk how accurate this is

https://mobile.twitter.com/globalismstan/status/1497663038232530944

That's if you uncritically believe Ukrainian estimates of Russian fatalities, which there's no good reason to this early in the war. If those estimates were accurate, Ukraine would be inflicting casualties at a 10:1 ratio, which would mean Russia was not advancing as fast as they are most likely.

Honestly, this feel-good that Ukraine is putting out might lull the West into complacency. "We have it under control guys! But still, please send us more arms!"

Doubt it. Even Germany has donated a bunch of equipment in the last few hours. Tiny countries like Slovakia are punching way above their weight in material aid. I would like to hope that European and American leaders are smart enough to distinguish Ukrainian internal morale-boosting propaganda from reality.

I hope you are right about this. But I wasn't talking about "not needing to send more arms" becoming a thing, I meant, we might underestimate Russian strength because we buy what Ukraine is putting out.

[jaichind]

Reading between the lines of what various EU officials are saying my best guess on SWIFT sanctions is that it will try to still allow for payments to Russia so raw material exports from Russia to the collective West will continue but block intra-Russian bank transfers.  The idea here is to trigger a run on the Russian banking system.   Here Russia has built an alternative system SPFS to which some but not all Russian banks and key counterparties are connected.  If the sanctions are what I think they might be and it can be crafted to target Russian intrabank transfers I suspect Russia will have to shut down all banks Monday and then get all their banks and enough counter parties connected to SPFS and hope that there is no run on the banks.  In the meantime, I am sure Russia will strike back in some way.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Idk how accurate this is

https://mobile.twitter.com/globalismstan/status/1497663038232530944

That's if you uncritically believe Ukrainian estimates of Russian fatalities, which there's no good reason to this early in the war. If those estimates were accurate, Ukraine would be inflicting casualties at a 10:1 ratio, which would mean Russia was not advancing as fast as they are most likely.

Even with overcounting, the numbers we are seeing is killed and captured. Figure conservatively 2-1 wounded to dead (and that would be a very bad rate), and even half that is a massive causality rate.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

The news anchor is objectively correct, but feel free to clutch pearls over the fact that he didn't use the latest approved euphemisms.

Explain further.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Idk how accurate this is

https://mobile.twitter.com/globalismstan/status/1497663038232530944

Almost need a meme for the Virgin Putin at this point.

There's the Classic Virgin Putin v. Chad Stalin meme:

I dont think you really should be praising Stalin to dunk on Putin.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

SLAVA UKRAINI!

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497657843629109256

[John Dule]

Rather than the Winter War, I think the best historical comparison to this may end up being the Prague Spring. Similarities include:

1. A liberalizing country within the Russian sphere of influence causes trepidation among the Russian leadership.
2. Russian troops invade to occupy, likely with the goal of installing a friendly autocrat and ousting the existing government
3. Similar civilian resistance, right down to the altering of road signs.
4. Russian underestimation of the resistance they would meet, leading to a drawn-out period of violence rather than the four-day campaign they expected.

Of course, Ukraine is actually resisting with military power, but if and when their forces are overwhelmed I think this is the situation we'll be looking at.

[Aurelius]

The news anchor is objectively correct, but feel free to clutch pearls over the fact that he didn't use the latest approved euphemisms.

Explain further.

By all the objective measures of "civilizedness" - meeting a basic standard of living, state consolidation, developed civil society, state monopoly on force, level of societal violence in peacetime, etc, Ukraine performs far better than Iraq which itself performs far better than Afghanistan.

The direct point he was making is also correct: Baghdad and Kabul have been sites of nearly continuous conflict for some decades now, whereas Kyiv hasn't seen any until now since WW2 and as such has a populace unaccustomed to war.

Unfortunately we have reached a point where it is considered wrongthink to make basic comparisons between nations for fear that people may get offended.

I don't have much interest in discussing this further, I'd much rather focus on the events on the ground in Ukraine.

[It’s so Joever]

Sumy is a major victory for Ukraine. Kyiv surviving last night also was stunning.

On the flip side, Russia’s taking of Gostomel airbase may doom Kyiv tonight and of course all those troops near Brest are going for an attack on the West where there aren’t so many troops.

[Aurelius]

Sumy is a major victory for Ukraine. Kyiv surviving last night also was stunning.

On the flip side, Russia’s taking of Gostomel airbase may doom Kyiv tonight and of course all those troops near Brest are going for an attack on the West where there aren’t so many troops.

I fear that all the people who fled west to Lviv and didn't continue into Poland or Slovakia or Hungary will be in for a nasty surprise soon.

If I were in charge of Ukraine's military strategy, I'd be massing troops and equipment behind the mountains around Uzhhorod to prepare for a last stand in Ukraine's one true natural citadel, as a fallback for if/when Kyiv and other major cities fall.

[Storr]

Take this with a beach pail of salt, as coercing (or worse) POWs to say things for propaganda purposes has been around since the moving image became a thing:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1497682179945553928?s=20&t=MMIfe_g2s...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sumy is a major victory for Ukraine. Kyiv surviving last night also was stunning.

On the flip side, Russia’s taking of Gostomel airbase may doom Kyiv tonight and of course all those troops near Brest are going for an attack on the West where there aren’t so many troops.

I fear that all the people who fled west to Lviv and didn't continue into Poland or Slovakia or Hungary will be in for a nasty surprise soon.

If I were in charge of Ukraine's military strategy, I'd be massing troops and equipment behind the mountains around Uzhhorod to prepare for a last stand in Ukraine's one true natural citadel, as a fallback for if/when Kyiv and other major cities fall.

The terrain of Ukraine is as flat as the American Midwest (North European Plain, remember), and that allows for an army built like the Russians to advance pretty quickly...if they want to. At least, the terrain is permitting for that sort of thing.

[It’s so Joever]

Sumy is a major victory for Ukraine. Kyiv surviving last night also was stunning.

On the flip side, Russia’s taking of Gostomel airbase may doom Kyiv tonight and of course all those troops near Brest are going for an attack on the West where there aren’t so many troops.

I fear that all the people who fled west to Lviv and didn't continue into Poland or Slovakia or Hungary will be in for a nasty surprise soon.

If I were in charge of Ukraine's military strategy, I'd be massing troops and equipment behind the mountains around Uzhhorod to prepare for a last stand in Ukraine's one true natural citadel, as a fallback for if/when Kyiv and other major cities fall.

Amen. The current positions aren’t very sustainable. However I doubt that will happen for a variety of reasons.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

https://mobile.twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1497681460022562816

[Aurelius]

Sumy is a major victory for Ukraine. Kyiv surviving last night also was stunning.

On the flip side, Russia’s taking of Gostomel airbase may doom Kyiv tonight and of course all those troops near Brest are going for an attack on the West where there aren’t so many troops.

I fear that all the people who fled west to Lviv and didn't continue into Poland or Slovakia or Hungary will be in for a nasty surprise soon.

If I were in charge of Ukraine's military strategy, I'd be massing troops and equipment behind the mountains around Uzhhorod to prepare for a last stand in Ukraine's one true natural citadel, as a fallback for if/when Kyiv and other major cities fall.

The terrain of Ukraine is as flat as the American Midwest (North European Plain, remember), and that allows for an army built like the Russians to advance pretty quickly...if they want to. At least, the terrain is permitting for that sort of thing.

Mostly yes. The eastern 2/3 is very flat. The western 1/3 has scattered hills, valleys, and ravines. And the far western 2-3% of the territory is tucked behind 6,000 ft high mountains, creating a nice natural fortress.