Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[ugabug]

What is Macron thinking? The Serbs were closer to Bosniaks than the Russians are to Ukrainians, but that didn't stop them from doing the genocide at Srebrenica.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1514174397577367555

Not only is he against calling it a genocide but he's against it because of reasons that sound like it came straight from the Kremlin's own talking points.

[Oryxslayer]

What is Macron thinking? The Serbs were closer to Bosniaks than the Russians are to Ukrainians, but that didn't stop them from doing the genocide at Srebrenica.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1514174397577367555

Translation (maybe): "I'm running for president right now."

For two weeks Macron has to try and appeal to Melenchon voters, and it's clear on a few fronts he lacks ideas besides being a halfhearted copycat that fools nobody.

[CumbrianLefty]

Best things most allies of Ukraine did was banning RT on Day 1....

Imagine if American and English Citizens were allowed to listen to NAZI and Italian Fascist Propaganda during WW II?

Well such propaganda certainly did exist and some in Allied countries listened to it, even though that was against the law. Lord Haw-Haw ring any bells?

[Silent Hunter]

Listening to him was discouraged, but not illegal.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Best things most allies of Ukraine did was banning RT on Day 1....

Imagine if American and English Citizens were allowed to listen to NAZI and Italian Fascist Propaganda during WW II?

Well such propaganda certainly did exist and some in Allied countries listened to it, even though that was against the law. Lord Haw-Haw ring any bells?

And we have Lord Tuck-Tuck. But we did shut down the actual state run Russian entities and now it's down to those looking make a profit off hot takes and agents paid under the table.

[Sir Mohamed]

What is Macron thinking? The Serbs were closer to Bosniaks than the Russians are to Ukrainians, but that didn't stop them from doing the genocide at Srebrenica.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1514174397577367555

Translation (maybe): "I'm running for president right now."

Not sure this is his motive. It's more likely Macron still believes he can negotiate with Putin and therefore weighs his words carefully.

[Storr]

These were built in the mid 80s as export versions of the T-72A. At worst Ukraine can use these as parts to repair more modern captured Russian T-72B variants, of which they have nearly 100.

list of visually confirmed losses: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
 https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1514229591891755023?s=20&t=UyAhK1BfLPG...

[Storr]

Does anyone know what 'cultural genocide' is in fluent Russian? Yikes.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1514237235159252999?s=20&t=UyAhK1Bf...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

(like in 2008 when Germany successfully blocked a NATO Membership Action Plan for Ukraine & Georgia)

That wasn't just the German government: the French government was as vocally opposed and, frankly, the governments of a lot of other member states were really not keen on the idea and were happy to see matters sunk.

Anyway, I don't think it was particularly good diplomatic practice to publicly veto a visit from Steinmeier, but equally it was not particularly good diplomatic practice from Steinmeier to consider a visit in the first place: he should have been aware that he would not be welcome under present circumstances, even if other German dignitaries certainly would be; that he would not be seen as a representative of the German State first, even if that is technically his job now.

[Middle-aged Europe]

(like in 2008 when Germany successfully blocked a NATO Membership Action Plan for Ukraine & Georgia)

That wasn't just the German government: the French government was as vocally opposed and, frankly, the governments of a lot of other member states were really not keen on the idea and were happy to see matters sunk.

Anyway, I don't think it was particularly good diplomatic practice to publicly veto a visit from Steinmeier, but equally it was not particularly good diplomatic practice from Steinmeier to consider a visit in the first place: he should have been aware that he would not be welcome under present circumstances, even if other German dignitaries certainly would be; that he would not be seen as a representative of the German State first, even if that is technically his job now.

The Steinmeier rebuke was probably a strategy of sorts of the Ukrainian government, considering that they invited Scholz at the same time to "discuss military aid to Ukraine" with him. Outside of virtue signaling, Steinmeier being in Kyiv doesn't actually do sh**t to help Ukraine is the message they send. Whether Ukraine did the right thing (or had the right to do it in the first place) is controversially discussed in German media right now. I had the impression that the majority is criticizing to the Steinmeier rebuke, but I also saw relevant voices who said the contrary.

[Astatine]

Also, regarding the point that point that Germany "contributed the most" in recent years:

https://twitter.com/BrunoTertrais/status/1513976070290259986?t=z732EnxjPOHTiT2So...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Steinmeier rebuke was probably a strategy of sorts of the Ukrainian government, considering that they invited Scholz at the same time to "discuss military aid to Ukraine" with him. Outside of virtue signaling, Steinmeier being in Kyiv doesn't actually do sh**t to help Ukraine is the message they sended.

Which, of course, it wouldn't because as a strictly ceremonial figure rather than part of the government he would have no authority to negotiate anything practical, quite.

[Astatine]

(like in 2008 when Germany successfully blocked a NATO Membership Action Plan for Ukraine & Georgia)

That wasn't just the German government: the French government was as vocally opposed and, frankly, the governments of a lot of other member states were really not keen on the idea and were happy to see matters sunk.

Anyway, I don't think it was particularly good diplomatic practice to publicly veto a visit from Steinmeier, but equally it was not particularly good diplomatic practice from Steinmeier to consider a visit in the first place: he should have been aware that he would not be welcome under present circumstances, even if other German dignitaries certainly would be; that he would not be seen as a representative of the German State first, even if that is technically his job now.

Well the difference between them and Steinmeier is that they are either not in charge anymore (Sarkozy, Benelux iirc) or even if they are in some governmental position, they didn't invite themselves to Kyiv.

[Sir Mohamed]

(like in 2008 when Germany successfully blocked a NATO Membership Action Plan for Ukraine & Georgia)

That wasn't just the German government: the French government was as vocally opposed and, frankly, the governments of a lot of other member states were really not keen on the idea and were happy to see matters sunk.

Anyway, I don't think it was particularly good diplomatic practice to publicly veto a visit from Steinmeier, but equally it was not particularly good diplomatic practice from Steinmeier to consider a visit in the first place: he should have been aware that he would not be welcome under present circumstances, even if other German dignitaries certainly would be; that he would not be seen as a representative of the German State first, even if that is technically his job now.

Well the difference between them and Steinmeier is that they are either not in charge anymore (Sarkozy, Benelux iirc) or even if they are in some governmental position, they didn't invite themselves to Kyiv.

How is public opinion in Germany over this controversy?

[Astatine]

(like in 2008 when Germany successfully blocked a NATO Membership Action Plan for Ukraine & Georgia)

That wasn't just the German government: the French government was as vocally opposed and, frankly, the governments of a lot of other member states were really not keen on the idea and were happy to see matters sunk.

Anyway, I don't think it was particularly good diplomatic practice to publicly veto a visit from Steinmeier, but equally it was not particularly good diplomatic practice from Steinmeier to consider a visit in the first place: he should have been aware that he would not be welcome under present circumstances, even if other German dignitaries certainly would be; that he would not be seen as a representative of the German State first, even if that is technically his job now.

Well the difference between them and Steinmeier is that they are either not in charge anymore (Sarkozy, Benelux iirc) or even if they are in some governmental position, they didn't invite themselves to Kyiv.

How is public opinion in Germany over this controversy?

Was about to say there hasn't been polling yet, but Forsa conducted a quick poll just now: 63% don't understand to Zelenskyi's actions, 33% understand.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1514269312084848644?t=91y6JkSt-aqOwBM9VrbD-...

Note that this is the same public that...
- supported giving Russia "security guarantees" (51% vs. 28%)
- was split on new sanctions (44% vs. 43%)
- vehemently opposed delivering any weapons to Ukraine (71% vs. 20%)
...in a poll from 2nd of February (https://www.infratest-dimap.de/umfragen-analysen/bundesweit/ard-deutschlandtrend/2022/februar/)

[DavidB.]

Was about to say there hasn't been polling yet, but Forsa conducted a quick poll just now: 63% don't understand to Zelenskyi's actions, 33% understand.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1514269312084848644?t=91y6JkSt-aqOwBM9VrbD-...

Note that this is the same public that...
- supported giving Russia "security guarantees" (51% vs. 28%)
- was split on new sanctions (44% vs. 43%)
- vehemently opposed delivering any weapons to Ukraine (71% vs. 20%)
...in a poll from 2nd of February (https://www.infratest-dimap.de/umfragen-analysen/bundesweit/ard-deutschlandtrend/2022/februar/)

So cynical how Ukrainians are becoming the victims of the Germans' narcissistic WWII guilt boner for Russia.

[DINGO Joe]

A WaPo interview with a Ukrainian Air Force pilot

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/13/ukrainian-fighter-pilots-mig-29-russians/

Nowhere is that divide more evident than in the proposed air materiel transfers. Juice flies MiG-29s, which are a Soviet-era staple of the Ukrainian air force. But he said Ukrainian pilots are “just targets” for Russian adversaries who fly far more advanced jets. Obtaining more outdated MiGs would not improve Ukraine’s position in the skies, he said.

“We have losses almost everyday in our air force,” he added. “You won’t see this on TV because everything is classified right now, but actually we have a lot of losses. That’s why we need to be technically equal with the Russians. Just our mental advantage is not enough to fight with these technologies.”
...........

Ukrainian pilots were able to improvise from there. Juice said the fight in the sky doesn’t feel fair when he’s going up against a more modern Russian jet. He often has to just avoid his adversary entirely to stay alive. Sometimes he and his fellow pilots manage to trick the Russians into flying into an area where the Ukrainians have an air-defense system ready and waiting.

"Juice" thinks he could learn to fly an F-series in a few weeks since he knows English and the terminology, but other voices in the article are skeptical of that and note that it's a whole supply and maintenance chain that has to go along with that.

Actually both "Juice" and the other voices seem to agree that advanced air defense systems would probably be of the greatest help in the near term.

[DINGO Joe]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61044063

Ukraine: Inside the spies’ attempts to stop the war

A free BBC article about the efforts of the American-Anglo intelligence community and how the information was publicly utilized to try and stop the war or at the very least least prevent false flag operations by Russia being viewed as plausible. 

The gist is that the A-A community had lost credibility over Iraq so they were still being viewed skeptically by many European countries, however, their public accuracy made it easier to rally European sentiment for Ukraine.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61044063

Ukraine: Inside the spies’ attempts to stop the war

A free BBC article about the efforts of the American-Anglo intelligence community and how the information was publicly utilized to try and stop the war or at the very least least prevent false flag operations by Russia being viewed as plausible. 

The gist is that the A-A community had lost credibility over Iraq so they were still being viewed skeptically by many European countries, however, their public accuracy made it easier to rally European sentiment for Ukraine.

George Bush Jr's decision to randomly invade a country and blame 'intelligence failures' for his manufactured pretext will haunt us for a generation.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61044063

Ukraine: Inside the spies’ attempts to stop the war

A free BBC article about the efforts of the American-Anglo intelligence community and how the information was publicly utilized to try and stop the war or at the very least least prevent false flag operations by Russia being viewed as plausible.  

The gist is that the A-A community had lost credibility over Iraq so they were still being viewed skeptically by many European countries, however, their public accuracy made it easier to rally European sentiment for Ukraine.

George Bush Jr's decision to randomly invade a country and blame 'intelligence failures' for his manufactured pretext will haunt us for a generation.

Stop comparing our invasion to the Russian one . Suddam Hussain was actually an evil dictator and did have WMD’s at one point even if he didn’t in 2003

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61044063

Ukraine: Inside the spies’ attempts to stop the war

A free BBC article about the efforts of the American-Anglo intelligence community and how the information was publicly utilized to try and stop the war or at the very least least prevent false flag operations by Russia being viewed as plausible.  

The gist is that the A-A community had lost credibility over Iraq so they were still being viewed skeptically by many European countries, however, their public accuracy made it easier to rally European sentiment for Ukraine.

George Bush Jr's decision to randomly invade a country and blame 'intelligence failures' for his manufactured pretext will haunt us for a generation.

Stop comparing our invasion to the Russian one . Suddam Hussain was actually an evil dictator and did have WMD’s at one point even if he didn’t in 2003

I'm not.

I'm pointing out that Bush effed over the American intelligence community to do it. The line was 'intelligence failure', over and over again. The rest of the world assumed that the CIA and MI6 were complicit and/or incompetent.

So when they for instance said 'Hey Russia is obviously planning an invasion', France, Germany, ect. didn't listen. Because Bush shredded our reputation to cover his ass.

[Isaak]

Steinmeier himself is completely meaningless. He's a figurehead without any real political influence whose visit would have been nothing than an empty talk photo op.

I'm not sure if you're aware of how diplomacy works. And I think you underestimate both the power of "photo ops" and public sentiment about how the highest representative of Germany is being treated by someone asking for his country's help. There are certain rules and conventions, and the Ukrainians have violated them in a way that is irritating at the very least.

What could he have brought apart from some signs of "solidarity"?

What do all the other Heads of State bring? What did Michael Roth & Co. bring who visited just recently? But let us turn the question around: What is the advantage of rejecting Steinmeier? Because I don't see any.

Can you defeat Russia with solidarity?

Well, you certainly cannot defeat anyone by publicly turning against your allies.

The colonial officer here is Germany, knowing once again what's best for others - "Am deutschen Wesen soll die Welt gewesen".

Not sure what you're referring to. But the colonial officer is clearly Melnyk - a guy who insults leading German politicians every second day and still hasn't learn the difference between to ask and to demand. If anyone has deserved to be persona non grata, it's him.

Or how else do you explain Steinmeier's behavior, who never really cared for Eastern European concerns (like in 2008 when Germany successfully blocked a NATO Membership Action Plan for Ukraine & Georgia) and recommended Ukraine what they should do with Donbas in his toxic Steinmeier-Formula, which paved the way to legimitize Russia's behavior?
Maybe this is not childish but very well thought through, because Ukrainians don't wanna see the guy who told them like some colonial ruler how to split up their country and who shared homoromantic moments with Sergey Lavrov in their country that's being literally slaughtered and raped right now for a photo op appointment? It's an affront of Steinmeier to not consider that maybe he shouldn't show up unless Germany finally delivers - his advisors should have known that, and maybe he would've been welcomed after some significant progress is achieved.

I don't see the argument, to be honest. Again, Steinmeier has already made clear that he was mistaken in the past. And it's pretty meaningless if he went to bed with Lavrov or whatever - today he is President and not FM anymore. Not member of a government or of a party but representative of Germany as such (and to be treated accordingly).

It's also not like he wanted to do this on his own. He was supposed to be part of a larger delegation of European Head of States after all.

Germany sticks out for delaying, thinking, being busy with itself and blocking right now. Scholz can show otherwise if he comes to Ukraine, instead of empty calls of "We are with you". Steinmeier's visit would've brought nothing. Among Ukrainians, Germany is seen as 5th most hostile country right now right after Russia, Belarus, China and Hungary. Maybe, just maybe, there's some very legit reasons for that.

It is the "5th most hostile country" out of how many countries people were asked for? A dozen? But if Ukrainians really feel like this, I am sorry for them because...

...Germany has received several hundred thousand refugees, the highest number of all countries not directly bordering Ukraine. In addition, there has been major legislative action aimed at helping these refugees in a non-bureaucratic way.
...Germany has not vetoed a single sanction at the EU level.
...Germany holds strong pro-Ukrainian positions in all relevant international bodies.
...Germany did send weapons to Ukraine, something that would have been unimaginable half a year ago and marks a break with key principles of German foreign policy.
...in the years prior to the Russian invasion, no country (except the US) has given more direct humanitarian aid to Ukraine than Germany.

If this is hostile, I don't know how to call the position of at least 75% of the international community: countries that have implemented no sanctions at all, continue to trade with Russia, and, in some cases, even refuse to formally condemn the Russian invasion.

Yeah I know enough people who have a negative opinion about Germany thanks to the behavior of its people in charge.

Again, there is absolutely no reason for that. People should be grateful for what Germany is doing and has done in the past. If they think they are entitled to sulk just because Scholz is not interested in completely crushing his country's industry - well, it's their problem.

[Estrella]

Steinmeier himself is completely meaningless. He's a figurehead without any real political influence whose visit would have been nothing than an empty talk photo op.

I'm not sure if you're aware of how diplomacy works. And I think you underestimate both the power of "photo ops" and public sentiment about how the highest representative of Germany is being treated by someone asking for his country's help. There are certain rules and conventions, and the Ukrainians have violated them in a way that is irritating at the very least.

What could he have brought apart from some signs of "solidarity"?

What do all the other Heads of State bring? What did Michael Roth & Co. bring who visited just recently? But let us turn the question around: What is the advantage of rejecting Steinmeier? Because I don't see any.

Can you defeat Russia with solidarity?

Well, you certainly cannot defeat anyone by publicly turning against your allies.

The colonial officer here is Germany, knowing once again what's best for others - "Am deutschen Wesen soll die Welt gewesen".

Not sure what you're referring to. But the colonial officer is clearly Melnyk - a guy who insults leading German politicians every second day and still hasn't learn the difference between to ask and to demand. If anyone has deserved to be persona non grata, it's him.

Or how else do you explain Steinmeier's behavior, who never really cared for Eastern European concerns (like in 2008 when Germany successfully blocked a NATO Membership Action Plan for Ukraine & Georgia) and recommended Ukraine what they should do with Donbas in his toxic Steinmeier-Formula, which paved the way to legimitize Russia's behavior?
Maybe this is not childish but very well thought through, because Ukrainians don't wanna see the guy who told them like some colonial ruler how to split up their country and who shared homoromantic moments with Sergey Lavrov in their country that's being literally slaughtered and raped right now for a photo op appointment? It's an affront of Steinmeier to not consider that maybe he shouldn't show up unless Germany finally delivers - his advisors should have known that, and maybe he would've been welcomed after some significant progress is achieved.

I don't see the argument, to be honest. Again, Steinmeier has already made clear that he was mistaken in the past. And it's pretty meaningless if he went to bed with Lavrov or whatever - today he is President and not FM anymore. Not member of a government or of a party but representative of Germany as such (and to be treated accordingly).

It's also not like he wanted to do this on his own. He was supposed to be part of a larger delegation of European Head of States after all.

Germany sticks out for delaying, thinking, being busy with itself and blocking right now. Scholz can show otherwise if he comes to Ukraine, instead of empty calls of "We are with you". Steinmeier's visit would've brought nothing. Among Ukrainians, Germany is seen as 5th most hostile country right now right after Russia, Belarus, China and Hungary. Maybe, just maybe, there's some very legit reasons for that.

It is the "5th most hostile country" out of how many countries people were asked for? A dozen? But if Ukrainians really feel like this, I am sorry for them because...

...Germany has received several hundred thousand refugees, the highest number of all countries not directly bordering Ukraine. In addition, there has been major legislative action aimed at helping these refugees in a non-bureaucratic way.
...Germany has not vetoed a single sanction at the EU level.
...Germany holds strong pro-Ukrainian positions in all relevant international bodies.
...Germany did send weapons to Ukraine, something that would have been unimaginable half a year ago and marks a break with key principles of German foreign policy.
...in the years prior to the Russian invasion, no country (except the US) has given more direct humanitarian aid to Ukraine than Germany.

If this is hostile, I don't know how to call the position of at least 75% of the international community: countries that have implemented no sanctions at all, continue to trade with Russia, and, in some cases, even refuse to formally condemn the Russian invasion.

Yeah I know enough people who have a negative opinion about Germany thanks to the behavior of its people in charge.

Again, there is absolutely no reason for that. People should be grateful for what Germany is doing and has done in the past. If they think they are entitled to sulk just because Scholz is not interested in completely crushing his country's industry - well, it's their problem.

After the invasion of the 24th of February
the secretary of German government
had leaflets distributed in the Gazpromallee
stating that Ukrainians
had forfeited the confidence of Germany
and could only win it back
by more apologies for defending themselves.
Would it not in that case be simpler for Germans
to let their ally die
and find another?

[Omega21]

Heroes:

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1513788608850841602?s=20&t=pp1day...

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1513887436119715845?s=20&t=pp1day...

It shouldn't be held against them if they surrender. They've already lasted nearly seven times longer than the fabled "Brest Fortress" Soviet defenders of 1941. 

Gives some weight to this:

Some of the surrenders are video documented, but we can't be 100% sure about the true number.

https://twitter.com/NuestraIraSLG/status/1513971173587140608

Russia said it had taken control of the port in Mariupol on Wednesday and that more than 1,000 Ukrainian marines had surrendered in the southeastern Ukrainian city, whose capture would free up forces for a wider offensive.Russia said it had taken control of the port in Mariupol on Wednesday and that more than 1,000 Ukrainian marines had surrendered in the southeastern Ukrainian city, whose capture would free up forces for a wider offensive.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-tells-russia-return-prisoners-if-you-want-top-ally-back-2022-04-12/

[Logical]

Mi-17 helicopters will be sent after all.
https://twitter.com/MarcusReports/status/1514315795035299850