Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

So Putin de facto admitted that he heavily depends on gas exports. I'm really conflicted on the issue since an embargo might hurt our economy to a degree that we struggle to keep all the sanctions in place. We can't allow to back down until Russia stops all hostile action.

Most of our countries set their economies on fire (and indirectly reduced fuel usage) for coronavirus, even once vaccines already existed.

The reason we can’t do this for Ukraine is (lack of) political will, within the leadership and/or the populace (if the leaders are judging them correctly). Putin miscalculated the strength of Ukraine, but he was a lot closer to the mark w.r.t. the decadence and lethargy of the consumerist West.

[Torrain]

As ever, the only thing flimsier than Moscow’s propaganda is Chechen propaganda:

https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1508972381062238208

[Middle-aged Europe]

Anyway...

https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1509207822122237959

Original German-language article: https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/ukraine-bundesregierung-waffen-1.5557614

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1509247054043881485

I could imagine them being under so much internal pressure that they kept hiding bad news from him since anything else would immediately threaten their positions.

However, this is always what happens with so-called strongmen who are only surrounded by yes-men who only tell them what they want to hear instead of hard truths.

Russian generals know very well from many years of watching Downfall memes what would have happened had they told Putin the full truth.

https://mobile.twitter.com/solamiga/status/1504200059604320257

This is absolutely awesome.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1509247054043881485

You know there is something to be said about how this conflict discredits autocracy over democracy as Putin blundered into this military catastrophe as there were no dissenting voices in the room

[Storr]

Imagine a burning Russian tank in your yard:

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1509263395656196106?s=20&t=7oMDX8IBx8M...

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1509269829261434891?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctw...

[Storr]

Depressing...

Danlia Sergeyevich Maloletkov
19 years 7 months and 9 days old (assuming this was from what is now yesterday in Ukraine).

from Sloboda Cheremukhovaya, Republic of Tatarstan. Population 436.

https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/1509136674818863105?s=20&t=fZx2pEk6ou8i...

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1509280407006724101

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1509280407006724101

That feeling when you try a 21st century Ardennes maneuver but instead you end up in a quagmire with a 21st century medical condition.

[Frodo]

Now, for some comedic relief:  

[Torie]

I can't make heads or tails of this word salad from the NYT's:

"Belying its claims of de-escalation, Russia increased bomb and artillery attacks in Ukraine on Wednesday and sent conflicting signals about the prospects for peace, suggesting new tensions in the Kremlin hierarchy about the course of the war.

'The contradictory messaging came as a newly declassified U.S. intelligence assessment suggested that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia had been misinformed about the war’s trajectory by subordinates, who were fearful of his reaction to the Russian military’s struggles and setbacks."

Somehow Putin had no idea how badly the war was going, but now having found out, is getting more bellicose, with Russian command and control in chaos. I am too senior challenged to connect the dots here.

[Storr]

One thing I've noticed following Russian soldier obituaries and death articles is that a high proportion of deaths seem to be minorities. Ethnic Russians are 80% of the Russian Federation's population. I've been seeing Kazakhs, Buryats, Tatars, Tuvans, Chuvashs, Bashkirs, and of course North Caucasians. It definitely feels like more than 20% of the Russian soldier death posts I've been seeing are ethnic minorities. Maybe it's just which deaths the Ukrainian twitter user I've been following shares from VK (russian knockoff facebook). I'd guess one factor is likely the increased poverty and lack of opportunities for ethnic minorities in Russia leading young men joining the military as a way out, similar to minorities in the United States. Of the 12 poorest federal subjects of Russia by GDP per capita, 10 are ethnic minority Republics.

For example, here's a Tatar who died in Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1506911714255724552?s=20&t=KHaZcORplZqTENGwcgCcaA

And an Ossetian (based on his surname and hometown which is 81.8% Ossetian) from Beslan. He would have been 9 in 2004, so he may have survived the terrorist school siege and bungled police response.

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1506872283096354817?s=20&t=KHaZcORplZqTENGwcgCcaA

Not surprising at all. The army is seen as a pathway for social mobility in the poorer rural areas. The pay isn't great, but it's a steady job with plenty of opportunities to skim some money on top off it. There is also the demographic factor as the only places with above replacement fertility rates since the fall of the Soviet Union are the peripheral non Slavic areas. Finally there is the socioeconomic factor where despite being the pride of the nation, serving in the Armed Forces is seen as something for poor people. The middle and upper class Muscovites has and will employ every mean they have to evade being conscripted!

For example, I know someone from Moscow, solidly middle class, who bought a white ticket (medical exemption pass) from the recruiting office in 2014.

I actually found an article touching on this issue. It's from the Jamestown Foundation, which the Kremlin has labeled "anti-Russian" before. I'm slowly getting through a 2017 publication they released titled "Russia In Decline". So there's definitely bias in their reporting, and they've focused non-Russian minority issues before, particularly in the Caucasus .

But, I'm surprised to find anything about the disproportionate numbers of non-Russians in the Russian military, and disproportionate casualties in the current war. Their explanation for the discrepancy is basically what was discussed in this thread:

"The share of non-Russians among draftees and contract soldiers in the Russian military has risen over the last several decades as the share of the prime draft-age cohort has shifted against the ethnic Russians (see EDM, February 10, 17, 2022) and even more because many non-Russians, especially in the North Caucasus, are far more eager to serve than are ethnic Russians, who have better life chances. On the one hand, poverty and unemployment in their regions are far higher than elsewhere; and on the other hand, many North Caucasians need to have served in uniform in order to have “the military ticket” that will allow them to work for the police in their republics, often the best job they can aspire to at present (see EDM, November 28, 2012)."

https://jamestown.org/program/potential-wildcard-in-ukrainian-conflict-russian-army-not-ethnically-homogeneous/

See? Russia and America aren’t that different after all!

Now a "mainstream" media article on the topic:


"Coffins in Buryatia: Ukraine invasion takes toll on Russia’s remote regions"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/30/coffins-in-buryatia-ukraine-invasion-takes-toll-on-russias-remote-regions

[NOVA Green]

Apparently Russian troops have even shot down their own aircraft accidentally in Ukraine per a British Intelligence officer:

Not only have the Russian forces struggled with low morale and weapons shortages, but they have also accidentally shot down their own aircraft and have refused to carry out orders, one of Britain’s spy chiefs said in a speech on Thursday in Australia.

The remarks by Sir Jeremy Fleming, the director of G.C.H.Q., Britain’s electronic surveillance agency, aligned with observations by American intelligence officials in recent weeks. Although the Russian forces outnumber Ukraine’s military, its soldiers have struggled with problems of food, communication and fuel, and have been plagued by bad morale during the invasion of Ukraine, which President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia ordered five weeks ago.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/30/world/ukraine-russia-war-news

[NOVA Green]

Russia is apparently having a bit of a precision guided missile problem...

The United States assesses that Russia is suffering failure rates as high as 60% for some of its precision-guided missiles, three U.S. officials with knowledge of the intelligence told Reuters.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/30/russia-ukraine-war-latest-news-russian-troop-withdrawal-designed-to-mislead-says-ukrainian-military-live

[NOVA Green]

Interesting update from Hungary:

Hungary’s far-right government has been accused of inflating the number of Ukrainian refugees it is sheltering as it seeks to secure European funds to finance their welfare.

Days before what will be a closely-fought general election against a unified opposition bloc, Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz administration – which has previously trumpeted its hostility to those it considers illegal migrants – claimed it had accepted more refugees fleeing Ukraine than any other neighbouring country after taking Hungary’s population of 9.6 million into account.

Zoltan Kovacs, the government’s international spokesperson, said Hungary had welcomed more than 540,000 people escaping the conflict, a figure he said amounted to between five and six refugees for every 100 Hungarian inhabitants.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/30/hungary-accused-of-inflating-number-of-ukrainian-arrivals-to-seek-eu-funds

[DINGO Joe]

I can't make heads or tails of this word salad from the NYT's:

"Belying its claims of de-escalation, Russia increased bomb and artillery attacks in Ukraine on Wednesday and sent conflicting signals about the prospects for peace, suggesting new tensions in the Kremlin hierarchy about the course of the war.

'The contradictory messaging came as a newly declassified U.S. intelligence assessment suggested that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia had been misinformed about the war’s trajectory by subordinates, who were fearful of his reaction to the Russian military’s struggles and setbacks."

Somehow Putin had no idea how badly the war was going, but now having found out, is getting more bellicose, with Russian command and control in chaos. I am too senior challenged to connect the dots here.

It seems that the messengers decided that Putin would probably shoot them, so they chose not to share the news, but I guess after a month he figure out something must be off.  Clever guy.

[Logical]

Following the DNR and LNR, South Ossetia will also be joining the motherland soon.
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1509283058612158466

[pppolitics]

Following the DNR and LNR, South Ossetia will also be joining the motherland soon.
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1509283058612158466

It's a great time for Georgia to take back South Ossetia.

[Storr]

spicy speed bumps:

https://twitter.com/tomhyppanen/status/1509255544925736960?s=20&t=jc4eIAOBlh...

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1509352752333398019

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1509036026655911936

[DINGO Joe]

spicy speed bumps:

https://twitter.com/tomhyppanen/status/1509255544925736960?s=20&t=jc4eIAOBlh...

And yet, somehow much safer than driving I-81 in PA

https://www.wgal.com/article/video-of-interstate-81-pileup-happening-schuylkill-county-pennsylvania/39582170

[NOVA Green]

No I-5 pileup back in 1988 was worse....

Field burning close to a highway caused greater fatalities and more vehicle incidents than the recent I-81 event.

http://www.usdeadlyevents.com/1988-aug-3-multi-vehicle-pileup-smoke-from-burning-field-i-5-near-albany-or-7/

Still, these mines on the road are so transparent that it basically will likely cause auto delays, but are effectively ineffective against Ukrainian armored counter-attacks on Russian flanks.

Militarily doubtful to change the trajectory on the Northern Front IMHO.

Starting to appear more like a full-blown retreat than anything else from that arena...

[NOVA Green]

War Games....

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1509276817689133058?s=20&t=rBEwSV...

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1509276820721618951?s=20&t=rBEwSV...