UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[YL]

New thread for the leadership election

[CumbrianLefty]

It remains astonishing how badly Humza played an admittedly not great hand.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

It remains astonishing how badly Humza played an admittedly not great hand.

I think you have to say Yousaf was given a hospital pass by Sturgeon. What did him in was the unreliability of the Greens as coalition partners, an agreement he inherited from her. Yes Humza did seem to suffer from foot-in-mouth disease, but what was important for his ministry was the long term strategic problems the SNP faced, that couldn't be solved by the best tactician in the world.

From one perspective the Greens ousting their ally First Minister in a fit of pique over some impossible policy demands and handing the Scottish government over to the SNP right is insane, but they seem to be calculating that by undermining the SNP left they can seize the progressive indy mantle and reap the electoral benefits. And the issue that kept the Greens and SNP together, independence, appears foreclosed for the foreseeable anyway.

[Hnv1]

So if we're seeing an internal shift from the independence yes-no paradigm to a more "who manages Scotland better?" how likely is it Labour takes the lead again? How are the SNP years in power perceived in Scotland?

[Torrain]

So if we're seeing an internal shift from the independence yes-no paradigm to a more "who manages Scotland better?"

In some ways, yes. In polling, the independence numbers have detached from SNP political support, with Yes now running way ahead of the party. Independence remains an important issue for some voters, but most polls no longer have it as among the top three issues with the public at large.

how likely is it Labour takes the lead again?

There's a statistical tie in most Scottish polls for Westminster, but because the Labour vote is distributed more effectively, it's expected this will put Labour slightly ahead in seat totals, if polling is borne out.
Holyrood polling is a different beast - SNP remain slightly ahead on both constituency and list vote, but way down on 2021. That polling suggests a close race between the unionist and nationalist blocs - with the expectation being that the largest bloc will band together to push their FM candidate (Labour vs SNP) to lead an unstable minority government.

How are the SNP years in power perceived in Scotland?

I'm pretty downbeat, particularly about the state of education, health and infrastructure. Afleitch will be able to make a more positive case, although he, like me, has ulterior motives. Many people's opinion will depend on how they feel about independence - which drives so much of the agenda and divisions in parliament.

[Torrain]

One to keep an eye on - Scottish Greens activists had a really stormy set of party meetings with their leaders over the past week.

There were already questions over the long-term prospects of co-leaders Harvie and Slater, which has been reignited. Also, some very aggressive briefing against Ross Greer, who's control of internal party mechanisms has led to some vaguely Stalinist imagery included in briefings to the Herald. His description of John Swinney as his "work dad" also triggered an entirely distinct rant about his cosiness with the SNP.

I only bring it up, because Maggie Chapman (the voice of the left within the Greens) refused to state she had confidence in either co-leader in comments to the media today, which is about as on-maneuveurs as you can get in a party like the Greens.

And because, if Slater and Harvie were figures of some mirth, the party would become *even more* oddball if they were replaced with the duo of Chapman and Greer, the only other notables among the current parliamentary group.

[Pericles]

Sending asylum seekers TO Iraq? JFC, Tory logic is demented.
https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1787407607738556908

[Coldstream]

Slightly strange moment from Sian Berry, she’s resigned as an assembly member a few days after the election. Indicating she wants to prioritise her Brighton Pavillion campaign, which sort of begs the question why bother running in the assembly elections at all?

I suspect she’s reacted/panicked at the criticism she’s had from Labour over the weekend at seeking office in London at the same time as in Brighton, but she should have seen this coming months ago.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/sian-berry-zoe-garbett-green-party-london-assembly-member-brighton-b1156055.html

[Torrain]

Yeah - odd move, and potentially rather cynical.

Given she’s one of the party’s familiar faces, and has stepped aside to cede the list seat to the party’s mayoral candidate (a virtual unknown who dropped the Greens into fourth place behind the Lib Dems for the first time in 16 years), she’s opened herself up to the charge that she only stood to secure enough votes for a third list seat, which she never intended to fill.

Given she’s surrendered her council seat, her assembly seat, and stated she wants to get out of London politics, it’s going to be a lean few years for her if she loses Brighton.

[Silent Hunter]

Sending asylum seekers TO Iraq? JFC, Tory logic is demented.
https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1787407607738556908

Indeed, ignoring those FCDO warnings will invalidate most travel insurance policies.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/SophyRidgeSky/status/1788164600350872034
What on earth?

[YL]

One of the more unexpected defections, to put it mildly.

[Logical]

Elphicke? Natalie "stop the boats" Elphicke?

[Pericles]

Rats & sinking ships...

[Coldstream]

“Keir’s changed the Labour Party.”

Yeah by stuffing it with Tory MPs.

[TheTide]

Symbolically this is absolutely devastating because of the constituency she represents.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is Jacob Rees-Mogg going to defect next?

[afleitch]

I think she's ideologically in some sort of transition (her response to the P&O sackings etc), but it's still a defection from the right of the party. By someone who isn't moving further right.

[Talleyrand]

Has Labour already selected a candidate for Dover?

[Torrain]

Has Labour already selected a candidate for Dover?

Per Labour briefing, she’s standing down.

Like Dan Poulter, this is just about sticking two fingers up at Sunak.

[Oryxslayer]

Has Labour already selected a candidate for Dover?

She doesn't intend to stand at the next GE. So like the ipswich one before the locals this is cause of anger over the Tories,  not a desire to stick with Labour.

Though like in other FPTP systems,  a open seat is usually a easier lift than one with a incumbent.

Also perhaps a response of genuine anger after the voters pissed on the Conservatives last week,  and Sunak is going around claiming that it's just raining.

[IceAgeComing]

I think she's ideologically in some sort of transition (her response to the P&O sackings etc), but it's still a defection from the right of the party. By someone who isn't moving further right.

I've had a bit of a pocket theory that the pre-2022 divide in the Tories between 'left' and 'right' was interesting; as Boris was on the 'right' despite pushing for some economic policies that were clearly NOT right wing. Obviously Truss was on the right in all ways but I wonder if that created a bit of a divide on that side of the party between the people that were big fans of the Truss project and those that are 'culturally Conservative' but who have more left wing economic sympathies and perhaps recent events have entrenched those.

It also is probably political opportunism but I think there's an interesting wider question there.

[CumbrianLefty]

Has Labour already selected a candidate for Dover?

She doesn't intend to stand at the next GE. So like the ipswich one before the locals this is cause of anger over the Tories,  not a desire to stick with Labour.

Though like in other FPTP systems,  a open seat is usually a easier lift than one with a incumbent.

Also perhaps a response of genuine anger after the voters pissed on the Conservatives last week,  and Sunak is going around claiming that it's just raining.

Yes, one thing this has likely done is truly kill off any attempt to resurrect the "cOaLiTiOn Of ChAoS?!" thing that Sunak and some of *the* most pathetically servile hacks were pushing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

lol

[Hnv1]

More of a math question than a political one:
At the current rate of by-election losses and defections (nd assuming there will be no general election) at what point in the future will the tories lose their majority? early 2026?