UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Alcibiades]

The belief that Western society is seeing an epidemic of child abuse is deeply held and Tory MPs have to reflect that.

Very few people in Britain — including very few Conservative voters — believe this. This is the language of the conspiratorial American far right.

[Torrain]

I mean that's the whole reason why they even bothered in the first place right? Labour will glide this through without much fanfare the moment they come to power. So why not push it yourself with all the pomp, and avoid a potential conflicted vote that is hard to explain to the public. From that perspective,  killing the proposal is yet another bad move by a Tory government that is running in circles.

As others have said, there are some true-believers, but yeah, I think that’s definitely a good part of why it was included.

It’s overlooked now, but Johnson leant into a form of social liberalism during his mayoral tenure, and it was (briefly) part of his pitch as a leadership stalking horse, before he became the face of Brexit. Despite his early columns (which… yikes), he did present himself as *of* that wing of the party, particularly while he had to win London votes.

When we’ve got a bit of distance, I’d be very curious to know whether he backed that policy being included in the 2019 manifesto, whether Carrie was lobbying for it, or whether it reflected the more Cameroon tinge the party still had at the time.

It’s a really odd document, that manifesto, given just how singularly the party focused on Brexit that year. The pledges to repeal the FTPA, introduce voter ID, and ban conversion therapy were basically ignored, as we gawked at the leaders of both parties.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Boris Johnson obviously supports (or should I say practices) social libertinism and is an ideological shapeshifter otherwise, so that is quite natural. Indeed one thing that he has never really tied himself to - unlike many of his most obvious international terms of comparison - is Christian conservatism.

[CumbrianLefty]

The belief that Western society is seeing an epidemic of child abuse is deeply held and Tory MPs have to reflect that.

Very few people in Britain — including very few Conservative voters — believe this. This is the language of the conspiratorial American far right.

Indeed, the above post seemed to import Trumpism/Qanonism wholesale into the UK. Without being at all complacent, that is a very mistaken reading of where we currently are.

[Dan the Roman]

The belief that Western society is seeing an epidemic of child abuse is deeply held and Tory MPs have to reflect that.

Very few people in Britain — including very few Conservative voters — believe this. This is the language of the conspiratorial American far right.

Indeed, the above post seemed to import Trumpism/Qanonism wholesale into the UK. Without being at all complacent, that is a very mistaken reading of where we currently are.

I worked in London for seven years intermittently before transfering back in 2023 and while I would not suggest it should be imported wholesale, I watched in Tory circles the reaction to Mordaunt's campaign including from her own team in 2022.

The strength of feeling outside the politicalized elite was much less than in the US and you could argue for the absence of mass mobilization but there was a total overnight consensus the very day she announced that her past record on the issue was an obstacle and that reversing was a prerequisite for a serious leadership bid. In short that no one could disagree and lead the Conservative party. Hence the cringe, late-night tweet thread.

Is it far weaker and elite focused than in America? Yes. But what struck me is that internally disagreement had been branded as leftwing and disloyal in a way that meant party loyalists would all go one way. The critical issue is not even that pushback is viewed as leftwing but that it is viewed as elitist and antipopulist after a decade in which "elites" have been viewed as nemesis. If you don't think the last decade has had an impact on the makeup of the party it has.

I don't see much evidence that has slowed down, not with the Cass review seeming to confirm every prejudice. When I say "child abuse" I mean the Cass Review perspective, or perhaps the freakin front page of Today's Guardian. Every major newspaper is running with that.

And don't underestimate the increased "Americanization" which will come from GBnews* and the media pull.

I would be interested in some evidence for organized division within the party on this since 2022. Something to show Kearns/Nokes represent important currents and not throwbacks to another era.

Or why Rishi dosen't actually believe in it.

*I realize Harwood is an exception but even he seems to have been told to shut up.

[TheTide]

The belief that Western society is seeing an epidemic of child abuse is deeply held and Tory MPs have to reflect that.

Very few people in Britain — including very few Conservative voters — believe this. This is the language of the conspiratorial American far right.

Indeed, the above post seemed to import Trumpism/Qanonism wholesale into the UK. Without being at all complacent, that is a very mistaken reading of where we currently are.

I worked in London for seven years intermittently before transfering back in 2023 and while I would not suggest it should be imported wholesale, I watched in Tory circles the reaction to Mordaunt's campaign including from her own team in 2022.

The strength of feeling outside the politicalized elite was much less than in the US and you could argue for the absence of mass mobilization but there was a total overnight consensus the very day she announced that her past record on the issue was an obstacle and that reversing was a prerequisite for a serious leadership bid. In short that no one could disagree and lead the Conservative party. Hence the cringe, late-night tweet thread.

Is it far weaker and elite focused than in America? Yes. But what struck me is that internally disagreement had been branded as leftwing and disloyal in a way that meant party loyalists would all go one way. The critical issue is not even that pushback is viewed as leftwing but that it is viewed as elitist and antipopulist after a decade in which "elites" have been viewed as nemesis. If you don't think the last decade has had an impact on the makeup of the party it has.

I don't see much evidence that has slowed down, not with the Cass review seeming to confirm every prejudice. When I say "child abuse" I mean the Cass Review perspective, or perhaps the freakin front page of Today's Guardian. Every major newspaper is running with that.

And don't underestimate the increased "Americanization" which will come from GBnews* and the media pull.

I would be interested in some evidence for organized division within the party on this since 2022. Something to show Kearns/Nokes represent important currents and not throwbacks to another era.

Or why Rishi dosen't actually believe in it.

*I realize Harwood is an exception but even he seems to have been told to shut up.

Harwood is a staunch free market ideologue and YIMBYist (of the worse kind), and a smarmy little f**ker to boot.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Harwood is also young and transphobia has much less purchase amongst younger generations, for whom young people transitioning isn't a "the children are wrong" issue but a thing that affects some members of their generation.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The belief that Western society is seeing an epidemic of child abuse is deeply held and Tory MPs have to reflect that.

Very few people in Britain — including very few Conservative voters — believe this. This is the language of the conspiratorial American far right.

Indeed, the above post seemed to import Trumpism/Qanonism wholesale into the UK. Without being at all complacent, that is a very mistaken reading of where we currently are.

I worked in London for seven years intermittently before transfering back in 2023 and while I would not suggest it should be imported wholesale, I watched in Tory circles the reaction to Mordaunt's campaign including from her own team in 2022.

The strength of feeling outside the politicalized elite was much less than in the US and you could argue for the absence of mass mobilization but there was a total overnight consensus the very day she announced that her past record on the issue was an obstacle and that reversing was a prerequisite for a serious leadership bid. In short that no one could disagree and lead the Conservative party. Hence the cringe, late-night tweet thread.

Is it far weaker and elite focused than in America? Yes. But what struck me is that internally disagreement had been branded as leftwing and disloyal in a way that meant party loyalists would all go one way. The critical issue is not even that pushback is viewed as leftwing but that it is viewed as elitist and antipopulist after a decade in which "elites" have been viewed as nemesis. If you don't think the last decade has had an impact on the makeup of the party it has.

I don't see much evidence that has slowed down, not with the Cass review seeming to confirm every prejudice. When I say "child abuse" I mean the Cass Review perspective, or perhaps the freakin front page of Today's Guardian. Every major newspaper is running with that.

And don't underestimate the increased "Americanization" which will come from GBnews* and the media pull.

I would be interested in some evidence for organized division within the party on this since 2022. Something to show Kearns/Nokes represent important currents and not throwbacks to another era.

Or why Rishi dosen't actually believe in it.

*I realize Harwood is an exception but even he seems to have been told to shut up.

Harwood is a staunch free market ideologue and YIMBYist (of the worse kind), and a smarmy little f**ker to boot.

WHat's wrong with YIMBYism ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I mean there are all sorts of conspiracy theories relating to child abuse here, but they relate to Operation Yewtree and so on rather than... all that.

[Dan the Roman]

I mean there are all sorts of conspiracy theories relating to child abuse here, but they relate to Operation Yewtree and so on rather than... all that.

I guess that wording did associate with things I did not intend. What I meant is that when I worked in Conservative politics the attitude of those who cared about this issue reminded me of hard-core American Prolifers who are convinced they are right, and unpopularity is a temporary result of the ignorance of everyone else. Once the "truth" is brought to their attention it won't matter.

Which means the politics take on the form of an information war where those who are off-message are actively undermining the cause.

I wasn't convinced voters cared, because to be frank, I wasn't convinced they cared deeply about much by American standards. But it was clear a critical mass within the rightwing elite had decided what they thought and believed if they could enforce internal conformity that conformity would spread to everyone else. And they were in a position to execute the first part.

Which is why I posted a few years ago in this thread predicting rhe Tories would go hard in this direction.

But back to the original point. I don't get the impression this is strategic on the part of most. Kearns and Nokes are absolutely not behaving strategically from the perspective of their own political futures. Rishi is not thinking about the longterm interests of the party. And those who opposed this either truly believe or recognize the strength of those who do.

[Torrain]

Chaps. Stop me if I'm pearl-clutching. But is there not something a bit... odd, about the Shadow Minister for Media, Gambling and Sport, placing a "charity bet" and seemingly doing free publicity for William Hill?
https://twitter.com/Steph_Peacock/status/1777681519298883827

[Wiswylfen]

Forget it, it's a Barnsley MP.

[CumbrianLefty]

Not only that, but the partner of a certain Labour peer (and former deputy leader) whose own links with the gambling industry are well known.

[Coldstream]

Not only that, but the partner of a certain Labour peer (and former deputy leader) whose own links with the gambling industry are well known.

Ex partner I think?

[Joe Republic]

Not only that, but the partner of a certain Labour peer (and former deputy leader) whose own links with the gambling industry are well known.

And he was already old enough to legally place bets when she was born.

[CumbrianLefty]

Not only that, but the partner of a certain Labour peer (and former deputy leader) whose own links with the gambling industry are well known.

Ex partner I think?

Maybe, must admit that I am not up to date with all the "goss".

[Torrain]

The debate on Sunak’s smoking ban has been running for hours. I’m not sure we’ve had a novel idea for at least an hour - so I’m giving up. It’s the same “think of the children” vs “murr, liberty”, over and over again.

BBC Parliament is currently panning across the government benches, all seemingly wishing for death, while Nick Fletcher monotones through a speech that’s so far included references to quad-bikes, a failure to police prostitution, and a whole thing about how people who smoke outside hospitals look pathetic.

[Torrain]

Just to round that story off:

• MPs voted in favour of the proposal - 383-67 in favour of the ban.
• Huge number of Tory abstentions, including Priti Patel and Penny Mordaunt.
• Final breakdown was 178 Tories in favour with 163 no/abstention votes (106 abstained, 57 voted against).
• Six ministers voted against (Kemi Badenoch, Julia Lopez, Alex Burghart, Steve Baker, Lee Rowley and Andrew Griffith). Three of that group were part of the leadership of Badenoch’s 2022 campaign.

There’s also be a bit of back-and-forth over whether the ban will apply to Northern Ireland (particularly given it’s subject to certain EU rulings - Sunak seems to have punted the decision over to MLAs, so who knows how that’ll play out…)

[CumbrianLefty]

One other point of interest is that around half a dozen LibDem MPs actually voted in favour of the ban and the rest abstained. That none voted against has caused a bit of internal disquiet - some activists take the "liberal" part of their name incredibly seriously.

[Tintrlvr]

One other point of interest is that around half a dozen LibDem MPs actually voted in favour of the ban and the rest abstained. That none voted against has caused a bit of internal disquiet - some activists take the "liberal" part of their name incredibly seriously.

I think this is a pretty natural fissure for liberal parties. "Ban smoking" is a pretty archetypical social liberal policy as a social good while "don't ban smoking" is pretty a solidly classical liberal-to-libertarian position on liberty grounds, so I'd expect a typical liberal party that contains both tendencies to have internal debate.

Other groups should have internal debate too - Labour between a similar impulse to the social liberals to ban it for the social good and a feeling that this targets the working class and should therefore not be banned, and the Tories between a tradition argument against banning vs a "think of the children" argument to ban. Conservatism, liberalism and socialism writ large should each be divided here.

[Alcibiades]

I was surprised by the Lib Dem votes on this because they have previously very much shown a willingness in this parliament to take idiosyncratic civil libertarian stances that might not be particularly in line with, for want of a better word, ‘progressive’ orthodoxy; for instance, ten of their MPs voted against Covid vaccine passports in December 2021.

[Torrain]

Humza Yousaf:
https://twitter.com/HumzaYousaf/status/1704542952251408410
Also Humza Yousaf:
https://twitter.com/TheScotsman/status/1780668002490278329

[CumbrianLefty]

But, b-but....the CyberNats have been attacking Labour non stop for their "u-turn" over green policy!

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1780995642527002747

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So they're not getting the campervan back, then?