2020 Poll Hype Thread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
May 19, 2024, 05:28:36 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  2020 Poll Hype Thread		 « previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 51 52 53 54 55 [56] 57 58 59 60 61 ... 99
Author Topic: 2020 Poll Hype Thread  (Read 191458 times)
LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1375 on: October 03, 2020, 09:25:56 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 03, 2020, 08:33:27 PM
Quote from: Monstro Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia on October 03, 2020, 08:21:57 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 03, 2020, 08:08:47 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 03, 2020, 08:07:22 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on October 03, 2020, 08:05:38 PM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on October 03, 2020, 07:40:55 PM
Apparently tomorrow there will be CBS/YouGov polls of PA and OH.

PA: Biden +5
OH: Trump +2

Are those actual numbers from something or a prediction?

I'm sure it's his prediction for the referenced polls.  It would be nice if people would clearly label their predictions in this thread as predictions.

If you want the actual numbers, go to the polling sub-board

These are actually what the numbers are based on their model.

That's a funny coincidence; those numbers came from my brain but they do match their tracker exactly.

Sorry to confuse people, I'll mark it as a prediction next time.
Logged
Ferguson97
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,238
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1376 on: October 03, 2020, 09:37:51 PM »
YouGov predictions
Ohio: Biden+1
Pennsylvania: Biden+7
Logged
TrendsareUsuallyReal
TrendsareReal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,098
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1377 on: October 03, 2020, 10:59:15 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 03, 2020, 08:33:27 PM
Quote from: Monstro Believes in a Blue Texas & a Blue Georgia on October 03, 2020, 08:21:57 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 03, 2020, 08:08:47 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 03, 2020, 08:07:22 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on October 03, 2020, 08:05:38 PM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on October 03, 2020, 07:40:55 PM
Apparently tomorrow there will be CBS/YouGov polls of PA and OH.

PA: Biden +5
OH: Trump +2

Are those actual numbers from something or a prediction?

I'm sure it's his prediction for the referenced polls.  It would be nice if people would clearly label their predictions in this thread as predictions.

If you want the actual numbers, go to the polling sub-board

These are actually what the numbers are based on their model.

Hilarious how they have TX as Lean R and OH/IA as tossups in their mode despite Biden polling better in Texas
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1378 on: October 04, 2020, 12:25:35 AM »
If the CBS poll for OH shows a Trump lead, OH will go Trump-blue on the Atlas poll map.

For the first time this year (3 Trump-leads in a row).

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020/polls.php
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1379 on: October 04, 2020, 12:42:08 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 04, 2020, 12:25:35 AM
If the CBS poll for OH shows a Trump lead, OH will go Trump-blue on the Atlas poll map.

For the first time this year (3 Trump-leads in a row).

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020/polls.php

If their PA poll is not showing a Trump-lead (throwing it to tossup-status), the poll map will also be tossup-free for the 1st time this year.
Logged
Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,417
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1380 on: October 04, 2020, 05:14:13 AM »
Prediction for CBS poll:

OH - Trump +1
PA - Biden +5/6
Logged
DaleCooper
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,198


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1381 on: October 04, 2020, 06:49:33 AM »
Based on how poorly Trump is doing in the few post-diagnosis polls we have so far, I'm guessing that Biden is in the mid to high single-digits in PA and is leading in Ohio.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1382 on: October 04, 2020, 06:58:10 AM »
Quote from: DaleCooper on October 04, 2020, 06:49:33 AM
Based on how poorly Trump is doing in the few post-diagnosis polls we have so far, I'm guessing that Biden is in the mid to high single-digits in PA and is leading in Ohio.

The 2 polls were conducted Tuesday to Friday, so only 25% of the sample is after the news (best-case).

Considering the pollsters conduct interviews during the day, the sample might even be 95% BEFORE the infection news.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1383 on: October 04, 2020, 10:28:00 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 04, 2020, 12:42:08 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 04, 2020, 12:25:35 AM
If the CBS poll for OH shows a Trump lead, OH will go Trump-blue on the Atlas poll map.

For the first time this year (3 Trump-leads in a row).

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020/polls.php

If their PA poll is not showing a Trump-lead (throwing it to tossup-status), the poll map will also be tossup-free for the 1st time this year.



Both didn't happen.

The OH poll is a tie, therefore no Trump-lead in OH and no fully coloured poll map yet.
Logged
Ferguson97
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,238
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1384 on: October 04, 2020, 10:31:41 AM »
Quote from: Ferguson97 on October 03, 2020, 09:37:51 PM
YouGov predictions
Ohio: Biden+1
Pennsylvania: Biden+7

Hey, pretty close!
Logged
YE
Moderator
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,862


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1385 on: October 04, 2020, 12:27:11 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 04, 2020, 10:28:00 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 04, 2020, 12:42:08 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 04, 2020, 12:25:35 AM
If the CBS poll for OH shows a Trump lead, OH will go Trump-blue on the Atlas poll map.

For the first time this year (3 Trump-leads in a row).

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020/polls.php

If their PA poll is not showing a Trump-lead (throwing it to tossup-status), the poll map will also be tossup-free for the 1st time this year.



Both didn't happen.

The OH poll is a tie, therefore no Trump-lead in OH and no fully coloured poll map yet.

Why is Iowa blue when there was that +2 poll for Biden last week?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,192
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1386 on: October 04, 2020, 01:27:00 PM »
Quote from: YE on October 04, 2020, 12:27:11 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 04, 2020, 10:28:00 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 04, 2020, 12:42:08 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 04, 2020, 12:25:35 AM
If the CBS poll for OH shows a Trump lead, OH will go Trump-blue on the Atlas poll map.

For the first time this year (3 Trump-leads in a row).

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020/polls.php

If their PA poll is not showing a Trump-lead (throwing it to tossup-status), the poll map will also be tossup-free for the 1st time this year.



Both didn't happen.

The OH poll is a tie, therefore no Trump-lead in OH and no fully coloured poll map yet.

Why is Iowa blue when there was that +2 poll for Biden last week?

Because the RABA poll was conducted earlier than the 3 polls that had Trump ahead.

The RABA poll ended Sept. 26, the other 3 on Sept. 27, 28 and 30.

A poll is always entered by the last day it was conducted, not the day of publication ...
Logged
Minnesota Mike
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,125


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1387 on: October 05, 2020, 11:36:47 AM »
Logged
soundchaser
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,570


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.26

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1388 on: October 05, 2020, 11:44:54 AM »
Guessing Biden +2 or 3
Logged
We Live in Black and White
SvenTC
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,697
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.81, S: -6.82

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1389 on: October 05, 2020, 11:45:50 AM »
Biden +5.
Logged
Horus
Sheliak5
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,925
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1390 on: October 05, 2020, 11:46:28 AM »
Biden +2
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,540
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1391 on: October 05, 2020, 11:52:02 AM »
Republican ID is smaller than their last poll.
Logged
Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,417
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1392 on: October 05, 2020, 11:53:52 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 05, 2020, 11:52:02 AM
Republican ID is smaller than their last poll.



So Biden +2-3 sounds about right. 
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,540
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1393 on: October 05, 2020, 11:55:19 AM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on October 05, 2020, 11:53:52 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 05, 2020, 11:52:02 AM
Republican ID is smaller than their last poll.



So Biden +2-3 sounds about right. 

Given Biden does better with Republicans than Trump does with Democrats and Biden typically dominates with Independents, I'd probably go a little higher. Biden +5-6?
Logged
Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,417
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1394 on: October 05, 2020, 11:56:01 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 05, 2020, 11:55:19 AM
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on October 05, 2020, 11:53:52 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 05, 2020, 11:52:02 AM
Republican ID is smaller than their last poll.



So Biden +2-3 sounds about right. 

Given Biden does better with Republicans than Trump does with Democrats and Biden typically dominates with Independents, I'd probably go a little higher. Biden +5-6?

We have your answer, Gass: Biden +8 😛
Logged
soundchaser
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,570


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.26

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1395 on: October 05, 2020, 11:57:28 AM »
Well HECK. That’s the last time I try to guess one of these Siena polls.
Logged
forza nocta
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 614


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1396 on: October 05, 2020, 01:16:40 PM »
Logged
Ferguson97
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,238
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1397 on: October 05, 2020, 01:20:57 PM »
Quote from: forza nocta on October 05, 2020, 01:16:40 PM


Biden+2
Logged
It’s so Joever
Forumlurker161
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,029


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1398 on: October 05, 2020, 03:01:42 PM »
Quote from: Ferguson97 on October 05, 2020, 01:20:57 PM
Quote from: forza nocta on October 05, 2020, 01:16:40 PM


Biden+2
This poll will be a good indication if there is any sympathy bump.
Logged
Splash
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,045
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1399 on: October 05, 2020, 03:05:26 PM »
Sorry if this is a re-post:
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 51 52 53 54 55 [56] 57 58 59 60 61 ... 99  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.093 seconds with 11 queries.