2020 Poll Hype Thread

[redjohn]

Begging people not to over-react to a close MN poll. All signs have pointed to the race there not being particularly close.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Trumps approval numbers in the mid 40s, but he’s now inching towards the upper 40s.

I told this forum this is the pattern of all elections. He will wing AT LEAST 46% of the vote, most likely 47%, with an outside chance of 48%. 47% and 48% gives him a very strong shot of EC.

This thing ain’t over yet. Christ, it’s barely even begun!

[CellarDoor]

Trumps poll numbers in the mid 40s, but he’s now inching towards the upper 40s.

I told this forum this is the pattern of all elections. He will wing AT LEAST 46% of the vote, most likely 47%, with an outside chance of 48%. 47% and 48% gives him a very strong shot of EC.

This thing ain’t over yet. Christ, it’s barely even begun!

haha.  Trump is at 43.2% on FiveThirtyEight.  That's not good for an incumbent.

[It’s so Joever]

Guys, the race is tightening. I know you don’t want to hear it, but Trump’s base is returning to the fold. Whether or not it will be enough is tough to tell, but it’s really damning that Biden seems stuck with a ceiling of 49% on the RCP national average, and recent state polls are worrisome.
This isn’t doomer-syndrome, it’s reality. Be prepared for the potential end of the American republic.

[Dr. Arch]

Guys, the race is tightening. I know you don’t want to hear it, but Trump’s base is returning to the fold. Whether or not it will be enough is tough to tell, but it’s really damning that Biden seems stuck with a ceiling of 49% on the RCP national average, and recent state polls are worrisome.
This isn’t doomer-syndrome, it’s reality. Be prepared for the potential end of the American republic.

Show us the data to support your point rather than sounding ridiculous like "Be prepared for the potential end of the American republic." I've been following polls for months, and I don't see what you're saying is there in any of the averages outside of select states, like Texas, where Trump is still running behind Cruz 2018 at the same stage of the race.

I had found you to be a reasonable poster (up until this point, honestly), but you're sounding worse than Horus right now, and that's saying something. Please contribute to discussions meaningfully.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

I love when all the political pundits talk about the election and always bleat, “It’s all about turnout and which side shows up more.”

No sh_it

[redjohn]

I love when all the political pundits talk about the election and always bleat, “It’s all about turnout and which side shows up more.”

No sh_it

Yet when they point to the data strongly indicating Biden is currently favored to win, Trump supporters crawl out of their holes to cry out "fake news!!" and accuse them of being horribly biased. Not sure what Republicans want... a completely false narrative that Trump is favored despite being down in 14/17 states that were competitive in 2016?

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

I love when all the political pundits talk about the election and always bleat, “It’s all about turnout and which side shows up more.”

No sh_it

Yet when they point to the data strongly indicating Biden is currently favored to win, Trump supporters crawl out of their holes to cry out "fake news!!" and accuse them of being horribly biased. Not sure what Republicans want... a completely false narrative that Trump is favored despite being down in 14/17 states that were competitive in 2016?

My post really went over your head. Wow.

[soundchaser]

Trumps approval numbers in the mid 40s, but he’s now inching towards the upper 40s.

I told this forum this is the pattern of all elections. He will wing AT LEAST 46% of the vote, most likely 47%, with an outside chance of 48%. 47% and 48% gives him a very strong shot of EC.

This thing ain’t over yet. Christ, it’s barely even begun!

Most polls have shown him under performing his approvals, so I'm not sure where this idea is coming from. Even if he does improve to 46% by election day (seems unlikely), he doesn't have that much ground he can afford to lose.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I love when all the political pundits talk about the election and always bleat, “It’s all about turnout and which side shows up more.”

No sh_it

"Usually the team that scores the most points wins the game."

-- John Madden

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Guys, the race is tightening. I know you don’t want to hear it, but Trump’s base is returning to the fold. Whether or not it will be enough is tough to tell, but it’s really damning that Biden seems stuck with a ceiling of 49% on the RCP national average, and recent state polls are worrisome.
This isn’t doomer-syndrome, it’s reality. Be prepared for the potential end of the American republic.

When a doomer claims it's not doomer-syndrome, it might be doomer-syndrome

[GeorgiaModerate]

Guys, the race is tightening. I know you don’t want to hear it, but Trump’s base is returning to the fold. Whether or not it will be enough is tough to tell, but it’s really damning that Biden seems stuck with a ceiling of 49% on the RCP national average, and recent state polls are worrisome.
This isn’t doomer-syndrome, it’s reality. Be prepared for the potential end of the American republic.

OK, doomer.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/1309539150530596864

this doesn't seem all that "tight"

[wbrocks67]

ABC/Wapo released part of their poll today, so I assume the prez toplines are imminent this weekend

[republican1993]

ABC/Wapo released part of their poll today, so I assume the prez toplines are imminent this weekend

exciting! they are the pollster i trust the most especially after 2016.

[GeorgiaModerate]

From Nate Cohn's Upshot column yesterday: "We’ll get a lot more data this weekend, including a new Times/Siena national poll, the rest of the ABC/Washington Post poll, and almost certainly more."

[Gass3268]

From Nate Cohn's Upshot column yesterday: "We’ll get a lot more data this weekend, including a new Times/Siena national poll, the rest of the ABC/Washington Post poll, and almost certainly more."

Makes sense to have pre debate polls.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1310006245835845633

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1310011159681159168?s=20

[forza nocta]

Im going to guess 51-43 for the NYT poll

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1310011159681159168?s=20

So this poll should actually underestimate Biden's support right, since they oversample R's and Trump support?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1310011159681159168?s=20

So this poll should actually underestimate Biden's support right, since they oversample R's and Trump support?

Don't try to unskew polls by party ID. It's not a sound practice.

[republican1993]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1310011159681159168?s=20

did they nationally poll as they were doing their state polling? their state polling was super d- friendly in my opinion. i'm hoping for the best

[Lief 🗽]

Probably Biden +2-3 in the NYT/Sienna poll. Disgusting stuff, but what do you expect? Looking forward to this rag going out of business once Biden’s president.

[Gass3268]

Probably Biden +2-3 in the NYT/Sienna poll. Disgusting stuff, but what do you expect? Looking forward to this rag going out of business once Biden’s president.

Eh, that wouldn't make sense given their state polls. Biden tends to get more Republicans than Trump does of Democrats, plus add in the fact Biden leads with Independents in almost all polls.