UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

And, on cue, here’s Mercer:

I am unsure of this Government's determination to row back on all the advances we have made for looking after our veterans and those who serve. Cost of rail travel on Remembrance Day 'too great'?

Tell that to Frankie from my unit. He's currently fighting COVID and multiple infections as one of our most disabled war veterans from Afghan. Last night those at his bedside asked me for a late night voice message they could play him to keep him fighting...

Tell him the cost of a few rail fares is too high for those who sacrifice - still 14 years on. Without them there wouldn't be a f**king railway, a Nation or a Remembrance Day for that matter.

The original is linked here, but I’ve transcribed it to bleep the profanity for Atlas: https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnnyMercerUK/status/1578459660280963072

The use of vulgarity in an official communication from a former Cabinet attendee strikes me as, uh, unusual (but called for!).

Have to agree, if ever there was a time/place for that kind of commentary, it’s here and now.

In terms of it being unusual, Mercer has always been a colourful figure, and this kind of approach/language is sort of his brand. See this interview:
https://www.politico.eu/podcast/cold-water-swimming-with-johnny-mercer-mp/amp/

It’s far from the most brash tweet sent by a Tory MP though - see 2016-era Ben Wallace vowing to castrate Michael Gove, and tagging a Sky News journalist.
https://mobile.twitter.com/bwallacemp/status/748856442132819969

Wallace is the only member of the cabinet who isn't either A) an incompetent clown B) an evil clown or C) an evil and incompetent clown.

[Tintrlvr]

More polling continues to put Labour above 50%:

Deltapoll:

51% Labour
26% Tories

Omnisis:

51% Labour
24% Tories

PeoplePolling:

52% Labour
20% Tories

Of the 16 polls released after the mini-budget fiasco, 9 of them have Labour at 50% or above.

The Omnisis poll is actually a slight swing back to the Tories since their last poll (Lab -4, Con +1, LD +3), so the decline at least seems to have stopped.

[TheTide]

More polling continues to put Labour above 50%:

Deltapoll:

51% Labour
26% Tories

Omnisis:

51% Labour
24% Tories

PeoplePolling:

52% Labour
20% Tories

Of the 16 polls released after the mini-budget fiasco, 9 of them have Labour at 50% or above.

The Omnisis poll is actually a slight swing back to the Tories since their last poll (Lab -4, Con +1, LD +3), so the decline at least seems to have stopped.

That looks suspiciously like MoE stuff. There's no reason why the Lib Dems would go up three points.

[CumbrianLefty]

What is the "Labour NUT map"?

[Torrain]

Johnson has appointed around eight sitting MPs to the House of Lords. Understandably, the Truss government is having a bit of a panic about this. If Truss were to lose the resulting by-elections, she’d lose a third of her majority, and the government could be defeated with only around 25 rebel MPs.

As a result, Truss is trying to get the King (who signs off the creation of any new Lords) to delay the appointments - which is broadly understood to be unconstitutional, as the 8 would be both sitting MPs and appointed Lords-to-be at the same time, which is forbidden by the rules of both chambers.

The last thing the Palace wants is to be dragged into this fiasco of a government, so I guess Truss will have to either relent, or somehow force the withdrawal of the nominations. Deferring them just creates the potential for lawsuits and more infighting.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/f114c4ca-4671-11ed-8885-043c27446b97?shareToken=e746d6bdd7e3c919ae3d181fb856e393

[Pericles]

Lmao, we love Boris the saboteur.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If Liz loses all these by-elections, would that bring a premature end to her time in power?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is the "Labour NUT map"?

There is this meme where NUT (always capitalized) means something like a party winning a huge, huge landslide.

[NewYorkExpress]

Johnson has appointed around eight sitting MPs to the House of Lords. Understandably, the Truss government is having a bit of a panic about this. If Truss were to lose the resulting by-elections, she’d lose a third of her majority, and the government could be defeated with only around 25 rebel MPs.

As a result, Truss is trying to get the King (who signs off the creation of any new Lords) to delay the appointments - which is broadly understood to be unconstitutional, as the 8 would be both sitting MPs and appointed Lords at the same time, which is forbidden by the rules of both chambers.

The last thing the Palace wants is to be dragged into this fiasco of a government, so I guess Truss will have to either relent, or somehow force the withdrawal of the nominations. Deferring them just creates the potential for lawsuits and more infighting.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/f114c4ca-4671-11ed-8885-043c27446b97?shareToken=e746d6bdd7e3c919ae3d181fb856e393

Sadly, the Monarchy can no longer sack a Prime Minister, otherwise I feel like Charles would probably already have done so to Truss.

[Torrain]

If Liz loses all these by-elections, would that bring a premature end to her time in power?

If Liz Truss loses 6-8 by-elections on one day (let’s be even-handed and say she holds onto Nadine Dorries’ seat) in a series of safe seats, she’ll be a proven election loser, and politically toxic. I can’t see how she’d be allowed to continue.

At that point, the voices in the party calling for the coronation of a new PM to minimise election losses and prepare the party for opposition would become far louder.

[CumbrianLefty]

Johnson has appointed around eight sitting MPs to the House of Lords. Understandably, the Truss government is having a bit of a panic about this. If Truss were to lose the resulting by-elections, she’d lose a third of her majority, and the government could be defeated with only around 25 rebel MPs.

As a result, Truss is trying to get the King (who signs off the creation of any new Lords) to delay the appointments - which is broadly understood to be unconstitutional, as the 8 would be both sitting MPs and appointed Lords at the same time, which is forbidden by the rules of both chambers.

The last thing the Palace wants is to be dragged into this fiasco of a government, so I guess Truss will have to either relent, or somehow force the withdrawal of the nominations. Deferring them just creates the potential for lawsuits and more infighting.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/f114c4ca-4671-11ed-8885-043c27446b97?shareToken=e746d6bdd7e3c919ae3d181fb856e393

Sadly, the Monarchy can no longer sack a Prime Minister, otherwise I feel like Charles would probably already have done so to Truss.

Theoretically, yes they still can.

And there were indeed rumours that might have been a "last resort" to get rid of Johnson, had events in the summer become truly desperate.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If Liz loses all these by-elections, would that bring a premature end to her time in power?

If Liz Truss loses 6-8 by-elections on one day (let’s be even-handed and say she holds onto Nadine Dorries’ seat) in a series of safe seats, she’ll be a proven election loser, and politically toxic. I can’t see how she’d be allowed to continue.

At that point, the voices in the party calling for the coronation of a new PM to minimise election losses and prepare the party for opposition would become far louder.

I wonder if this was intentional by Boris...

[bore]

Have to agree, if ever there was a time/place for that kind of commentary, it’s here and now.

In terms of it being unusual, Mercer has always been a colourful figure, and this kind of approach/language is sort of his brand. See this interview:
https://www.politico.eu/podcast/cold-water-swimming-with-johnny-mercer-mp/amp/

It’s far from the most brash tweet sent by a Tory MP though - see 2016-era Ben Wallace vowing to castrate Michael Gove, and tagging a Sky News journalist.
https://mobile.twitter.com/bwallacemp/status/748856442132819969

Its not even the brashest tweet by Johnny Mercer:

https://twitter.com/johnnymerceruk/status/1052233618356142080

[CumbrianLefty]

If Liz loses all these by-elections, would that bring a premature end to her time in power?

If Liz Truss loses 6-8 by-elections on one day (let’s be even-handed and say she holds onto Nadine Dorries’ seat) in a series of safe seats, she’ll be a proven election loser, and politically toxic. I can’t see how she’d be allowed to continue.

At that point, the voices in the party calling for the coronation of a new PM to minimise election losses and prepare the party for opposition would become far louder.

I wonder if this was intentional by Boris...

Wasn't he widely thought to be a Truss supporter, even if he never went public on his successor?

Though even then its quite possibly overridden by his "apres moi, le deluge" mentality.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If Liz loses all these by-elections, would that bring a premature end to her time in power?

If Liz Truss loses 6-8 by-elections on one day (let’s be even-handed and say she holds onto Nadine Dorries’ seat) in a series of safe seats, she’ll be a proven election loser, and politically toxic. I can’t see how she’d be allowed to continue.

At that point, the voices in the party calling for the coronation of a new PM to minimise election losses and prepare the party for opposition would become far louder.

I wonder if this was intentional by Boris...

Wasn't he widely thought to be a Truss supporter, even if he never went public on his successor?

Though even then its quite possibly overridden by his "apres moi, le deluge" mentality.

It seems more likely than not that he would not sabotage her like this, but it's a possibility I'm open to.
But above all I'd feel he most likely did this as rewards for his supporters and all. Giving them a lifelong lordship...

[Torrain]

If Liz loses all these by-elections, would that bring a premature end to her time in power?

If Liz Truss loses 6-8 by-elections on one day (let’s be even-handed and say she holds onto Nadine Dorries’ seat) in a series of safe seats, she’ll be a proven election loser, and politically toxic. I can’t see how she’d be allowed to continue.

At that point, the voices in the party calling for the coronation of a new PM to minimise election losses and prepare the party for opposition would become far louder.

I wonder if this was intentional by Boris...

Wasn't he widely thought to be a Truss supporter, even if he never went public on his successor?

Though even then its quite possibly overridden by his "apres moi, le deluge" mentality.

Occam's razor would suggest it's just Boris wanting to reward his mates - an argument I was initially sympathetic too. But the situation he's created is such a specific middle-finger to his successor (fight 8 uphill by-elections at once, or trigger a small constitutional crisis) that I'm having second thoughts.

To my reckoning, this would be the most by-elections on one day since the mass resignation of Unionist MPs in Nothern Ireland in protest of the Anglo-Irish agreement in 1986.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

If Liz loses all these by-elections, would that bring a premature end to her time in power?

If Liz Truss loses 6-8 by-elections on one day (let’s be even-handed and say she holds onto Nadine Dorries’ seat) in a series of safe seats, she’ll be a proven election loser, and politically toxic. I can’t see how she’d be allowed to continue.

At that point, the voices in the party calling for the coronation of a new PM to minimise election losses and prepare the party for opposition would become far louder.

I wonder if this was intentional by Boris...

Wasn't he widely thought to be a Truss supporter, even if he never went public on his successor?

Though even then its quite possibly overridden by his "apres moi, le deluge" mentality.

Occam's razor would suggest it's just Boris wanting to reward his mates - an argument I was initially sympathetic too. But the situation he's created is such a specific middle-finger to his successor (fight 8 uphill by-elections at once, or trigger a small constitutional crisis) that I'm having second thoughts.

To my reckoning, this would be the most by-elections on one day since the mass resignation of Unionist MPs in Nothern Ireland in protest of the Anglo-Irish agreement in 1986.

Is there an exact number days they have to schedule an election? I know in the US the Governor usually has a bit of leeway. Otherwise I'd assume they'd try to space them out.

[Torrain]

If Liz loses all these by-elections, would that bring a premature end to her time in power?

If Liz Truss loses 6-8 by-elections on one day (let’s be even-handed and say she holds onto Nadine Dorries’ seat) in a series of safe seats, she’ll be a proven election loser, and politically toxic. I can’t see how she’d be allowed to continue.

At that point, the voices in the party calling for the coronation of a new PM to minimise election losses and prepare the party for opposition would become far louder.

I wonder if this was intentional by Boris...

Wasn't he widely thought to be a Truss supporter, even if he never went public on his successor?

Though even then its quite possibly overridden by his "apres moi, le deluge" mentality.

Occam's razor would suggest it's just Boris wanting to reward his mates - an argument I was initially sympathetic too. But the situation he's created is such a specific middle-finger to his successor (fight 8 uphill by-elections at once, or trigger a small constitutional crisis) that I'm having second thoughts.

To my reckoning, this would be the most by-elections on one day since the mass resignation of Unionist MPs in Nothern Ireland in protest of the Anglo-Irish agreement in 1986.

Is there an exact number days they have to schedule an election? I know in the US the Governor usually has a bit of leeway. Otherwise I'd assume they'd try to space them out.

By convention, when MPs resign around the same time, the Commons sets the same date for the resulting by-elections (see the Wakefield and Tiverton by-elections held on the same night this same summer, even though their MPs left the Commons on different days). Holding 2-3 by-elections at once is pretty common, and as many as six by-elections on the mainland (excluding the 16 by-elections held at once in NI in 1983) have been held on one day since WW2.

If you space the by-elections out, the government is at risk of prolonged political embarassment, leading the news day after day, as they slowly lose seats. The Major government of the mid-90s had this problem. The unfolding chaos of one MP resigning after another, slowly eroding the Government's political authority (and parliamentary majority) contributed to the sense of terminal decline.

Check out this "progression of government majority" table here, for a visual example:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_MPs_elected_in_the_1992_United_Kingdom_general_election

TLDR; if Truss does lose these 8 MPs to the House of Lords, the party will probably want the short sharp shock of all 8 results, rather than a slow erosion of their electoral credibility. This is the Truss government though, so rule nothing out.

[Wiswylfen]

If Liz loses all these by-elections, would that bring a premature end to her time in power?

If Liz Truss loses 6-8 by-elections on one day (let’s be even-handed and say she holds onto Nadine Dorries’ seat) in a series of safe seats, she’ll be a proven election loser, and politically toxic. I can’t see how she’d be allowed to continue.

At that point, the voices in the party calling for the coronation of a new PM to minimise election losses and prepare the party for opposition would become far louder.

I wonder if this was intentional by Boris...

Wasn't he widely thought to be a Truss supporter, even if he never went public on his successor?

Though even then its quite possibly overridden by his "apres moi, le deluge" mentality.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1549782798608785408

[Blair]

The very funny thing we forget is that they’ve lost 5 MPs through by elections and defections already- they’re not going to want to lose more before they’ve done planning reform…

[Silent Hunter]

The very funny thing we forget is that they’ve lost 5 MPs through by elections and defections already- they’re not going to want to lose more before they’ve done planning reform…

Nine including those who've lost the whip. Started with a majority of 87, now 69.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The very funny thing we forget is that they’ve lost 5 MPs through by elections and defections already- they’re not going to want to lose more before they’ve done planning reform…

Nine including those who've lost the whip. Started with a majority of 87, now 69.

nice

[icc]

The very funny thing we forget is that they’ve lost 5 MPs through by elections and defections already- they’re not going to want to lose more before they’ve done planning reform…

The chances of planning reform being passed are already very low.

[MABA 2020]

I can definitely believe Boris did this on purpose to screw Truss. Even though he may have preferred Truss to Sunak, he's still clearly seething at being removed in the first place and is probably glad to see his replacement struggle. I'm sure he thinks the failure of the government opens the door for his return too.

[Torrain]

You couldn’t make it up.
https://mobile.twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1578796938761076742