Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[beaver2.0]

Interesting anecdote from poll worker training: a prospective worker raised some objections to the option of not showing ID and instead swearing that you are who you say you are.  This person was pretty quickly shut down by the Republican member of the local board of elections who told her point-blank that the system is secure and there is no fraud.

It was an interesting little experience.

[ElectionsGuy]

Hot take: If Youngking gets a +15-16% lead in Election Day votes, he wins. Trump got +26% in 2020.

This isn't even a hot take, it's reality. And Youngkin will win the election day vote, it's just a matter of margin.

[ElectionsGuy]

To all the people screaming about Glenn Youngkin sending his kids to private schools:

Guess what - so did Terry McAuliffe, who's against school choice for poor kids.

[mtvoter]

Is it time to blame Manchin for Tmacs loss yet?

[junior chįmp]

Thank God VA Dems nominated a moderate centrist like McAllufie instead of an left wing extremist like Lee Carter who would of made the race un-necessarily close or lost 🤣🤣🤣

[Roll Roons]

Thank God VA Dems nominated a moderate centrist like McAllufie instead of an left wing extremist like Lee Carter who would of made the race un-necessarily close or lost 🤣🤣🤣

Carter honestly could have lost by double digits.

[compucomp]

Is it time to blame Manchin for Tmacs loss yet?

No, but it might be time to blame Jayapal and Sanders.

[Senator Incitatus]

Thank God VA Dems nominated a moderate centrist like McAllufie instead of an left wing extremist like Lee Carter who would of made the race un-necessarily close or lost 🤣🤣🤣

Carter honestly could have lost by double digits.

Carter might have finished third if an independent ran.

[Senator Incitatus]

McAuliffe went on television today and apparently-falsely suggested he has experience raising a public school student in Virginia:

https://twitter.com/DeAngelisCorey/status/1454822367658659840?s=20

Context to this non-issue that no one in Virginia cares about: Glenn Youngkin made VA public schools an issue, also sent all his kids to private school.  Is promoting a racist dog whistle about CRT which is not taught in VA public schools.

As seen with that tweet, the GOP loves nothing more than to churn the fake outrage machine. Apparently Youngkin can talk all about public schools and their issues (without actually having sent his kids to any), but T-Mac can't? And naturally they take everything out of context, every single time.

You have to wonder who the "desperate" campaign here is when all Youngkin has is pulling T-Mac clips out of context one after another.

I don't know of an occasion where Youngkin implied his opinion on Virginia public schools was based on his and his wife's experience raising his children in them, because like McAuliffe, he didn't. Both of them can talk about public schools all they want and should; neither should lie to gain credibility. I get that it comes naturally to establishment political hacks like McAuliffe, but it will be his downfall, either in losing this election or when he becomes one of the least popular governors in the country (and compounds already growing problems for Spanberger and Luria by doing so).

Also, to NSV, "that poster" didn't "buy" anything. I just posted the clip with a moderately skeptical comment because it was the most interesting news from the race today. Sunday talk shows, especially pre-election ones, are standard topics for discussion.

[NOVA Green]

Hot take: If Youngking gets a +15-16% lead in Election Day votes, he wins. Trump got +26% in 2020.

Are you expecting a huge Election Day turnout?

Yes, I expect 2 million votes

Wasserman had it at 2.9 Million on his benchmarks.

So if it's only around 2 Million who benefits the most???

[NOVA Green]

Is it time to blame Manchin for Tmacs loss yet?

No, but it might be time to blame Jayapal and Sanders.

NO---

This a bunk beltway argument that somehow VA voters will vote on the basis of Infrastructure bills vs local election stuff.

Never bought the argument at all and still don't.

DEM centrists still have their bottoms sore from '16 & '20 and want to blame the Progressive DEMs for everything.

Don't worry we will primary almost all of them in the next couple years, with the exception of Mansion and the Cinema Witch is def going down in '24   

[BigSerg]

Hot take: If Youngking gets a +15-16% lead in Election Day votes, he wins. Trump got +26% in 2020.

Are you expecting a huge Election Day turnout?

Yes, I expect 2 million votes

Wasserman had it at 2.9 Million on his benchmarks.

So if it's only around 2 Million who benefits the most???

Are you sure he was referring to E-Day turnout and not the total? That's incredibly high.

[hyouzel the predictor]

Hot new info straight off the Loudoun Presses...

The father (Scott Smith) of the girl sexually assaulted at the first school was at the Halloween Parade in Leesburg and was screaming and demanding to speak with Terry (who was there)... turns out he had a knife on him (like a hunting knife type thing) and he was almost arrested by the cops.

[ElectionsGuy]

Hot take: If Youngking gets a +15-16% lead in Election Day votes, he wins. Trump got +26% in 2020.

Are you expecting a huge Election Day turnout?

Yes, I expect 2 million votes

Wasserman had it at 2.9 Million on his benchmarks.

So if it's only around 2 Million who benefits the most???

2 million election day votes = 3.1 million total votes
2.9 million election day votes = 4 million total votes (almost as high as presidential turnout and unprecedented for an off-year)

If you mean 2.9 million total that'd be 1.8 million election day votes.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Two pieces of information straight off the Loudoun Presses...

One, the father (Scott Smith) of the girl sexually assaulted at the first school was at the Halloween Parade in Leesburg and was screaming and demanding to speak with Terry (who was there)... turns out he had a knife on him (like a hunting knife type thing) and he was almost arrested by the cops.

Second, (and this is big information that has not been leaked), the encounter between the rapist and this man (Scott Smith)'s daughter... was consensual (at least at first)... multiple charges of forcible fellatio in one encounter is a little bit unbelievable of a story (apparently to a judge as well)... The story going around is that they had hooked up a couple of times and either got caught, didn't want to continue seeing him, or was actually sexually assaulted (the least likely of these stories IMO) and told her father, a known conservative activist who donated 1.5k to a Republican statehouse candidate before this whole scandal even began. Additionally, this kid is simply not trans (a friend of a friend used to be friends with him), so if the girl or her father did make up this sexual assault story, I can imagine that she would also make up this detail. This explains why the DA placed him in another school (where he did actually sexually assault someone and should be facing severe punishment) but that detail explains a looooooot of why this hubbub is happening right around this election....

Thanks for keeping us posted.
What impact do you see stemming from this?

[NOVA Green]

Hot take: If Youngking gets a +15-16% lead in Election Day votes, he wins. Trump got +26% in 2020.

Are you expecting a huge Election Day turnout?

Yes, I expect 2 million votes

Wasserman had it at 2.9 Million on his benchmarks.

So if it's only around 2 Million who benefits the most???

Are you sure he was referring to E-Day turnout and not the total? That's incredibly high.

Well... these were vaccinated Russian Bear link to a Wasserman tweet from 10/28/21.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=412258.msg8317687#msg8317687

Looks to be legit after briefly tracking down Dave Wasserman on Twitter...

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1453852175046783029?s=20

[Mr. Reactionary]

Two pieces of information straight off the Loudoun Presses...

One, the father (Scott Smith) of the girl sexually assaulted at the first school was at the Halloween Parade in Leesburg and was screaming and demanding to speak with Terry (who was there)... turns out he had a knife on him (like a hunting knife type thing) and he was almost arrested by the cops.

Second, (and this is big information that has not been leaked), the encounter between the rapist and this man (Scott Smith)'s daughter... was consensual (at least at first)... multiple charges of forcible fellatio in one encounter is a little bit unbelievable of a story (apparently to a judge as well)... The story going around is that they had hooked up a couple of times and either got caught, didn't want to continue seeing him, or was actually sexually assaulted (the least likely of these stories IMO) and told her father, a known conservative activist who donated 1.5k to a Republican statehouse candidate before this whole scandal even began. Additionally, this kid is simply not trans (a friend of a friend used to be friends with him), so if the girl or her father did make up this sexual assault story, I can imagine that she would also make up this detail. This explains why the DA placed him in another school (where he did actually sexually assault someone and should be facing severe punishment) but that detail explains a looooooot of why this hubbub is happening right around this election....

https://www.wjla.com/amp/features/i-team/teen-suspect-found-guilty-in-loudoun-county-public-school-stone-bridge-high-bathroom-assault

The rapist was convicted so as a matter of legal fact it was what you are trying to spin as the "least likely story". Dont spread bs.

[hyouzel the predictor]

Also another anecdotal info drop on Loudoun: I have seen WAYYYY more Dem signs around town than I have in weeks prior. I think that this polling scare made Dems get their sh**t together and start actually doing their jobs (distributing signs, holding events in swing areas, bringing in the big guns, doing massive canvassing campaigns, etc.)... Feeling better about Tuesday

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Also another anecdotal info drop on Loudoun: I have seen WAYYYY more Dem signs around town than I have in weeks prior. I think that this polling scare made Dems get their sh**t together and start actually doing their jobs (distributing signs, holding events in swing areas, bringing in the big guns, doing massive canvassing campaigns, etc.)... Feeling better about Tuesday

I guess we can say...Thank you Fox!

[hyouzel the predictor]

Also another anecdotal info drop on Loudoun: I have seen WAYYYY more Dem signs around town than I have in weeks prior. I think that this polling scare made Dems get their sh**t together and start actually doing their jobs (distributing signs, holding events in swing areas, bringing in the big guns, doing massive canvassing campaigns, etc.)... Feeling better about Tuesday

I guess we can say...Thank you Fox!

Yep for sure, I bet the election will be not as close now

[Non Swing Voter]

Hot new info straight off the Loudoun Presses...

The father (Scott Smith) of the girl sexually assaulted at the first school was at the Halloween Parade in Leesburg and was screaming and demanding to speak with Terry (who was there)... turns out he had a knife on him (like a hunting knife type thing) and he was almost arrested by the cops.

He doesn't at all sound like a lunatic.

[hyouzel the predictor]

Hot new info straight off the Loudoun Presses...

The father (Scott Smith) of the girl sexually assaulted at the first school was at the Halloween Parade in Leesburg and was screaming and demanding to speak with Terry (who was there)... turns out he had a knife on him (like a hunting knife type thing) and he was almost arrested by the cops.

He doesn't at all sound like a lunatic.

Totally rational

[Non Swing Voter]

Also another anecdotal info drop on Loudoun: I have seen WAYYYY more Dem signs around town than I have in weeks prior. I think that this polling scare made Dems get their sh**t together and start actually doing their jobs (distributing signs, holding events in swing areas, bringing in the big guns, doing massive canvassing campaigns, etc.)... Feeling better about Tuesday

I guess we can say...Thank you Fox!

Yep for sure, I bet the election will be not as close now

It never was going to be a 1 point race despite the GOP wet dreams.

[Non Swing Voter]

Also another anecdotal info drop on Loudoun: I have seen WAYYYY more Dem signs around town than I have in weeks prior. I think that this polling scare made Dems get their sh**t together and start actually doing their jobs (distributing signs, holding events in swing areas, bringing in the big guns, doing massive canvassing campaigns, etc.)... Feeling better about Tuesday

I don't think signs are an indicator.  Dems are boasting about a huge banked early vote lead and a good ground game for Election Day.  GOP is boasting about yard signs.  I'd rather be Dems.  Also, Youngkin campaign has done a great job, even in Fairfax, of putting his signs in prominent main roads (not on private property) but when you go down most of the back roads 90% of the signs are for T-Mac.  I do see some signs for Youngkin but it's the same houses I always see GOP signs for. 

[Real Texan Politics]

So this happened in Richmond...
https://twitter.com/cchellez/status/1454967658818965509?s=21