Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1618640602329141248?s=20&t=6llLPgw9...

[Woody]

But human waves win wars, don't you know?

If Russia is using human waves then why are the casualties at Bakhhmut of approximate parity ?

Because we don’t know if that’s true or not. Ukraine keeps their causality rates on the wraps pretty effectively

Wonder why.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1618679746828865536

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1618668367350738945
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1618668374053224449

[Dereich]

But human waves win wars, don't you know?

If Russia is using human waves then why are the casualties at Bakhhmut of approximate parity ?

Because we don’t know if that’s true or not. Ukraine keeps their causality rates on the wraps pretty effectively

Wonder why.

Whether they lost 20 or 20,000 in an engagement it makes equally good sense to keep that number hidden. Same for the Russians, of course.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1618667464522403843?t=Gwy3M49GlLLQgBmT6gtYNQ&...

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1618688579202600960
https://mobile.twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1618689802865623042

[lfromnj]

But human waves win wars, don't you know?

If Russia is using human waves then why are the casualties at Bakhhmut of approximate parity ?

Because we don’t know if that’s true or not. Ukraine keeps their causality rates on the wraps pretty effectively

Sure , but interview sources from Ukranian commanders have stated their casualties at times are relatively close with the Russians. The only real examples of human wave tactics  post WW1 would be the Soviet defense in 1941 trying to delay the Germans and the Chinese in the Korean War. Do you have any sources of these massive human wave casualties ? Yes it is true the Russian military is embarrassing relative to expectations but its still important to note that this a near peer conflict .

[Storr]

Anybody want to move to Russia?

"“We just need to hold a big campaign in Europe and America: “Come to us, we will give you 10 hectares, you will work for us!” People will run out of there. Seven million people, Europeans and Americans, who are now experiencing hell and horror, will come to us with pleasure,” Gusev said."



I'm not sure why he specifically mentioned 7 million people. Interestingly that's very close to the total population of Serbia (excluding Kosovo) and Bosnian-Serb population combined. Coincidence??!?

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1618693031951233026?s=20&t=6llLPgw9...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/derJamesJackson/status/1618530858872508416?s=20&t=6llLPg...

[Tintrlvr]

Anybody want to move to Russia?

"“We just need to hold a big campaign in Europe and America: “Come to us, we will give you 10 hectares, you will work for us!” People will run out of there. Seven million people, Europeans and Americans, who are now experiencing hell and horror, will come to us with pleasure,” Gusev said."



I'm not sure why he specifically mentioned 7 million people. Interestingly that's very close to the total population of Serbia (excluding Kosovo) and Bosnian-Serb population combined. Coincidence??!?

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1618693031951233026?s=20&t=6llLPgw9...

New policy: Ship Republicans to Russia and make Putin pay for it!

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1618690359957004298

[NOVA Green]

Don't believe that it has been mentioned yet, but looks like Ukraine will be receiving the most recent version of the M1 Abrams, which might explain why these are being sourced from the manufacturing vendor, rather than from existing US Military stockpiles.

The variant of the American tank going to Ukraine will be the M1A2 Abrams, Pentagon spokesman Sabrina Singh said Thursday, disclosing for the first time new details about what kind of tank will be purchased and sent to the government in Kyiv. The M1A2 is more modern than the M1A1 that is still in service, with more advanced electronics and targeting ability, according to U.S. military specifications. The U.S. military owns both versions. Singh, speaking at a news conference, declined to address Thursday whether the United States has declined to send some of the thousands of Abrams tanks in its own arsenal because of classified aspects to its depleted uranium armor. The Pentagon, she said, has no “excess” tanks in its own inventory to provide Ukraine.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/26/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/

[NOVA Green]

Interesting story from the WSJ about how the War on Ukraine has dramatically shifted Russian global oil shipments based upon ship tracking data collected from vessels leaving Russian ports.

Not going to provide many quotes, but thought it might be worthwhile to add least put a "bookmark" on it for future reference.

The exception was this which might be interesting to keep an eye on in the next couple months for "Russian Oil Watchers" of this thread.

In February, the reshuffling will continue with a U.S.-led price cap and European Union embargo on diesel and other refined fuels from Russia. The Journal’s analysis of crude shipments offers a preview of why next month’s changes, which analysts say will pose even more complex logistical challenges, are injecting fresh uncertainty into energy markets.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-war-on-ukraine-changed-global-oil-trade-here-is-what-it-looks-like-now-11674740567?mod=hp_lead_pos5

[CanadianDemocrat]

RU has been escalating it's mini-offensives during these last few days in different parts of the front, most likely prepping up for spring. In under 24 hours they launched another "surprise" attack. This time towards Vuhledar, reaching it's outskirts for the first time.

So what is it going to be? Zaporozhye, Kharkiv, or Lviv/Kyiv through Belarus?

IDK. Doesn't matter. Not a matter of if, but when.  


After Putin signed the mobilization order, it was over for Ukraine. It's only gonna get uglier from here on out on the battlefield map.

If you ignore the piss poor quality of Russian soldiers, I guess.

It's easy to say this when we sit behind the computer. But if you were to ask those Ukrainian soldiers out on the field, who see their compatriots/friends get killed weekly, about what is what, then it doesn't become a joke anymore.

Your continued insistence to portray the Russian army as some type of mighty force in defiance of all existing evidence is really something

The 'mighty' Russian army, lost the Soviet-Afghan war, World War 1, the Russo-Japanese War and the Crimean War. Russia can only win wars when they have lots of foreign help like the Allies sending Lend Lease to Russia in World War 2.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Leopard polling data from Germany


Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF-Politbarometer, Jan. 27

Opinion on Germany's decision to send Leopard 2 to Ukraine
Support 54%
Oppose 38%

Western states (old FRG) only
Support 59%
Oppose 33%

Eastern states (ex-GDR) only
Support 35%
Oppose 57%

Support broken down by party affiliation
Greens 75%
CDU/CSU 64%
SPD 61%
FDP 55%
Left 31%
AfD 6%

Leopard deliveries increase the risk of a Russian attack on Germany
Yes 48%
No 48%


Note: These past eleven momths it had been a frequent phenomenon that public support for a specific form of military assistance to Ukraine increases after the political debate had ended and the government had decided to give Ukraine such assistance. It seems that "reluctant" Olaf Scholz always pulls some undecideds with him once he finally mades a call. (There could be a bit of a reverse phenomenon where East Germans and/or AfD voters are concerned because these groups tend to oppose any form of government decision as a matter of principle).

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/europeanMedia24/status/1618920786634461184?t=j3F9UqthnyVVexL...

[Woody]

Possibly February or March

https://twitter.com/ZMiST_Ua/status/1618914664871776256
https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1618902716427964416
https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1618923464865492996

[Antonio the Sixth]

Don't believe that it has been mentioned yet, but looks like Ukraine will be receiving the most recent version of the M1 Abrams, which might explain why these are being sourced from the manufacturing vendor, rather than from existing US Military stockpiles.

The variant of the American tank going to Ukraine will be the M1A2 Abrams, Pentagon spokesman Sabrina Singh said Thursday, disclosing for the first time new details about what kind of tank will be purchased and sent to the government in Kyiv. The M1A2 is more modern than the M1A1 that is still in service, with more advanced electronics and targeting ability, according to U.S. military specifications. The U.S. military owns both versions. Singh, speaking at a news conference, declined to address Thursday whether the United States has declined to send some of the thousands of Abrams tanks in its own arsenal because of classified aspects to its depleted uranium armor. The Pentagon, she said, has no “excess” tanks in its own inventory to provide Ukraine.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/26/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/

That's so f**king stupid. Ukraine doesn't need the most top-of-the-line gear. It needs solid, functional gear and it needs it fast. Just send the Abrams you have in storage right now and keep the ones being produced for yourself.

This is such a baffling political decision I have to wonder if it's not just a way to buy time because Biden doesn't actually want to send them at all.

[jaichind]

Don't believe that it has been mentioned yet, but looks like Ukraine will be receiving the most recent version of the M1 Abrams, which might explain why these are being sourced from the manufacturing vendor, rather than from existing US Military stockpiles.

The variant of the American tank going to Ukraine will be the M1A2 Abrams, Pentagon spokesman Sabrina Singh said Thursday, disclosing for the first time new details about what kind of tank will be purchased and sent to the government in Kyiv. The M1A2 is more modern than the M1A1 that is still in service, with more advanced electronics and targeting ability, according to U.S. military specifications. The U.S. military owns both versions. Singh, speaking at a news conference, declined to address Thursday whether the United States has declined to send some of the thousands of Abrams tanks in its own arsenal because of classified aspects to its depleted uranium armor. The Pentagon, she said, has no “excess” tanks in its own inventory to provide Ukraine.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/26/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/

That's so f**king stupid. Ukraine doesn't need the most top-of-the-line gear. It needs functional gear and it needs it fast. Just send the Abrams you have in storage right now and keep the ones being produced for yourself.

This is such a baffling political decision I have to wonder if it's not just a way to buy time because Biden doesn't actually want to send them at all.

I think the problem is the existing gear has all sorts of advanced electronics that the USA does not want to fall into Russia's (and de facto PRC) hands.  So new tanks have to be manufactured export that does not have this advanced electronic gear.   I do think the USA is trying to talk to various Middle East countries to see if they can sell back "export versions" of these tanks back to the USA to give to Ukraine.  The main problem is many of them (SA, Egypt etc) will not want to risk their relationship with Russia and will drag their feet on such a request.

[Virginiá]

That's so f**king stupid. Ukraine doesn't need the most top-of-the-line gear. It needs solid, functional gear and it needs it fast. Just send the Abrams you have in storage right now and keep the ones being produced for yourself.

This is such a baffling political decision I have to wonder if it's not just a way to buy time because Biden doesn't actually want to send them at all.

They are refurbishing existing tanks into export models that don't have certain characteristics unique to US's own, like the depleted uranium armor, which they won't send to even our close allies. These tanks Ukraine is getting aren't the kind the US itself would use.

That actually does make sense why we have thousands of tanks in long term storage and yet they are oddly unwilling to send them. Based on what I read, all M1A1 tanks and up in US inventory have been upgraded to DE armor. I would also not expect much in "ring swap"-type deals from the US on tanks with other countries, as this means any country that wants a backfill would probably need to wait for tanks, which they may or may not want (or can't) do, unfortunately.

I suppose you could argue that we should just send the tanks anyway, and at this point I would also argue how secret could depleted uranium armor be after literally 30+ years in use in active war zones where tanks have been lost, but I digress.

[Virginiá]

To expand on Poland's recent contributions, they will be sending 14 Leopard 2A4 tanks, but also 60 T-72 variants (30 PT-91, their domestic upgraded tank, and 30 modernized T-72Ms)

https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1618881729250603010

If NATO can also pry loose the 30 T-72s from Slovakia and ~80 T-80U tanks from Cyprus, then it'll be a party!

[Woody]

To expand on Poland's recent contributions, they will be sending 14 Leopard 2A4 tanks, but also 60 T-72 variants (30 PT-91, their domestic upgraded tank, and 30 modernized T-72Ms)

https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1618881729250603010

If NATO can also pry loose the 30 T-72s from Slovakia and ~80 T-80U tanks from Cyprus, then it'll be a party!

You do realize that people are dying right?

[Middle-aged Europe]

To expand on Poland's recent contributions, they will be sending 14 Leopard 2A4 tanks, but also 60 T-72 variants (30 PT-91, their domestic upgraded tank, and 30 modernized T-72Ms)

https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1618881729250603010

If NATO can also pry loose the 30 T-72s from Slovakia and ~80 T-80U tanks from Cyprus, then it'll be a party!

You do realize that people are dying right?

Thanks for the crocodile tears, Woodman.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1618982840062070786