Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[OSR stands with Israel]

Well yes, but Hitler only survived a well planned assassination attempt in 1944 through dumb luck.

Btw we wouldnt have accepted a conditional surrender from Germany even if Hitler was removed from power. By 1944 we had made it more than clear we would accept nothing other than an unconditional surrender from the Germans and that meant the war wouldnt end until Berlin fell.

Btw it was 100% the right move by the Allies as well given the entire German state at that point had to be deconstructed and then rebuilt. 

[Virginiá]

500,000+ more mobiks in such a short span of time is more than the Russian military can handle in any way that would be vaguely proper, but human life doesn't mean much to Russia. The problem for Ukraine is that at best, these are still speed bumps (figuratively and literally) for Ukrainian success and they will have to be fought in battle, costing Ukrainian lives and weapons. It also means blitzing the enemy to retake large swathes of land quickly is going to be increasingly difficult absent a sudden, large scale collapse in morale and will to fight among Russians. The Kharkiv offensive happened the way it did in part because huge portions of the front were poorly guarded due to severe manpower shortages on the Russian side. Months of filling those gaps and fortifying their positions is inevitably going to slow things down even more, even if it might not stop it entirely.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

500,000+ more mobiks in such a short span of time is more than the Russian military can handle in any way that would be vaguely proper, but human life doesn't mean much to Russia. The problem for Ukraine is that at best, these are still speed bumps (figuratively and literally) for Ukrainian success and they will have to be fought in battle, costing Ukrainian lives and weapons. It also means blitzing the enemy to retake large swathes of land quickly is going to be increasingly difficult absent a sudden, large scale collapse in morale and will to fight among Russians. The Kharkiv offensive happened the way it did in part because huge portions of the front were poorly guarded due to severe manpower shortages on the Russian side. Months of filling those gaps and fortifying their positions is inevitably going to slow things down even more, even if it might not stop it entirely.

tbf Putin also said he'd need to send 5 million Private Conscriptovichs to the front in order to win.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Obscenely long delays in contracts being awarded, even for systems that have no alternative bids or possible manufacturers, is an underrated complaint. Ukraine's power grid is failing due to incessant Russian strikes, slowly creating a humanitarian crisis, to which the US repeatedly said it would speed up air defense systems as much as it can, only for us to see that it is only just now awarding contracts to actually build the next 6 NASAMS air defense systems they promised to Ukraine months ago.

https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1598098877894504448
https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1598098907778920451
Just the pinnacle of absurdity how contracting rules have not been altered yet for this conflict, especially for cases where it's completely unnecessary.

Some defense contractors have made the decision to invest in expanding production of some systems because they determined that demand was likely going to be much higher (such as HIMARS), but this is the exception, not the rule. Most of the time they are not going to start production until the deal is locked in.

This ought to be a sober reminder for Ukraine that ultimately no matter how bad things get, there is a limit to how much and how fast things will get done for them, because the cost of doing more and doing that faster is either just too much, or requires too much effort that certain people just aren't willing to put in, for whatever reasons.

It gets worse: those 14 short-range, anti-air APKWS systems promised back in August, only pioneered by one company, have only just had their contract finalised. The Pentagon's original expectation was that Ukraine would have these systems by May: the manufacturer now estimates they'll have the first 4 by May and the rest by the year's end. There's also radio silence on the Switchblade 600s which the manufacturers said would be delivered "within a few weeks" in October.

This plays into US concerns about their own industry - or rather, the consolidation of it over recent decades.
 

Two decades of mergers and acquisitions have left the top six contractors to share the majority of Pentagon spending on military equipment. In the 1990s, some 50 firms vied for big contracts.

The largest defense companies, like auto makers, manufacture fewer things themselves than they used to and rely more on subcontracting. The broader defense industrial base shrank to 55,000 vendors in 2021 from 69,000 in 2016, and those smaller companies have become a choke point as shortages of labor, chips, rocket motors and other components are hobbling efforts to boost arms production.

Last year, the US (for the first time, IIRC) sued to block Lockheed Martin's attempt to buy yet another rocket motor manufacturer. LM dropped the acquisition before it could go to court, but another of the big six is trying to buy it. The consolidation is particularly acute in aircraft and shipbuilding.

It used to be that the industrial half of the US MIC would make foreign customers pay through the nose, but the biggest companies are now compromising US supply lines, too. I wonder whether Congress will be inclined to curb this.

[Woody]

Bakhmut - Pidhorodne is taken/partially taken by RU. Bakhmut itself might soon be surrounded by 3 sides.

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1612243711144120320
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1612391442013372419?cxt=HHwWhoCywajeruAsA...

[Epaminondas]

Is Tweeter Andrew Perpetua unbiased? He seems to focus readily on Russian advances.

Bakhmut - Pidhorodne is taken/partially taken by RU. Bakhmut itself might soon be surrounded by 3 sides.

It's on 3 sides. Could this guy actually be a Russian plant?

[Woody]

Is Tweeter Andrew Perpetua unbiased? He seems to focus readily on Russian advances.

Bakhmut - Pidhorodne is taken/partially taken by RU. Bakhmut itself might soon be surrounded by 3 sides.

It's on 3 sides. Could this guy actually be a Russian plant?

I'm Pro-Ukraine.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Is Tweeter Andrew Perpetua unbiased? He seems to focus readily on Russian advances.

Bakhmut - Pidhorodne is taken/partially taken by RU. Bakhmut itself might soon be surrounded by 3 sides.

It's on 3 sides. Could this guy actually be a Russian plant?

I'm Pro-Ukraine.

Yeah, but are you pro-Ukraine or "pro-Ukraine"?

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1612434145493360640

[Woody]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1612402431601836032
https://mobile.twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1612442146753093632
https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1612251416139014144?cxt=HHwWgICxud6H798sAA...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1612434145493360640

One source suggested Britain might offer around 10 Challenger 2 tanks, enough to equip a squadron.

The source said this in itself would not be a "game changer" but it would still be hugely significant because the move would breach a barrier that has so far prevented allies from offering up Western tanks to Ukraine for fear of being seen as overly escalatory by Russia.

"I have delivered 10, now you should deliver 100," is galaxy-brained logic which could only work because of how arbitrary some of the escalatory lines were in the first place. The UK government could probably deliver more practical aid for the same price by sending something scalable or easier to maintain than a batch of 10 tanks which will never be added to. If they're desperate to get some good PR by being first to deliver in a category, they could always pay for something like the 150km GLSDB instead (which would probably be more useful for Ukraine than these tanks).

[Woody]

Russia plans to send up to 50,000 civilians to occupied Mariupol

About 50,000 Russian civilians may come to Russian-occupied Mariupol in Donetsk Oblast in January, according to Petro Andriushchenko, adviser to the legally elected mayor of the city.

The number of Russian citizens is expected to rise to 50,000 people in January. The occupation continues."

source: https://news.yahoo.com/russia-plans-send-50-000-081010175.html

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1612490467366604818?s=20&t=35fkD5...

[Woody]

Possible new wave of mobilization in Russia. Another 500K on top of the 300K from last quarter, who are now almost done with training.

Could be looking at a million man army.

KYIV — Ukrainian intelligence officials are warning that the Kremlin plans a new mobilization wave for up to 500,000 men to fight in Ukraine starting in mid-January.

The new conscription drive, which would be larger than last autumn’s Russian draft of 300,000, would include a push in big cities, including some strategic industrial centers in Russia, Andriy Cherniak, an official with the Main Military Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, told POLITICO on Saturday.

Moscow plans to use the 500,000 extra conscripts in a possible new massive offensive against Ukraine, the Guardian reported, citing Vadym Skibitsky, deputy chief of Ukrainian military intelligence.

Ukrainian Armed Forces Chief Commander Valery Zaluzhnyy, in a December interview with the Economist, said Russia will conduct a new attempt at a massive offensive against Ukraine in February-March 2023. It might not start in Donbas, but in the direction of Kyiv through Belarus.

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-mobilize-new-conscript-military-intelligence-war-ukraine/

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1612552706169643022?s=20&t=K9_MMK...

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1612555855303528460?s=20&t=K9_MMK...

[Woody]

5 months of battle for this city might come to an end soon. This leaves Bakhmut's northern flank exposed. (Krasna Hora, Paraskoviivka)

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1612578450962882561
https://twitter.com/warmonitor3/status/1612581503388553216?

[Virginiá]

NATO going just about all-in with Ukraine

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1612573773068226582

Considering the US Army is retiring its Stryker Mobile Gun System (the variant with the 105mm cannon, of which it has 125+), I wouldn't be surprised to see that sent. Reports indicated it was due to be retired by the end of 2022. This would be closer to what Ukraine needs, considering most of the other Stryker variants only have a remote-controlled .50 cal and grenade launchers, which isn't nothing but it falls short of the offensive capabilities Ukraine has been asking for. It would be unlikely the one with the 30mm autocannon would be sent, given that it is new and not widely fielded yet.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

NATO going just about all-in with Ukraine

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1612573773068226582
Considering the US Army is retiring its Stryker Mobile Gun System (the variant with the 105mm cannon, of which it has 125+), I wouldn't be surprised to see that sent. Reports indicated it was due to be retired by the end of 2022. This would be closer to what Ukraine needs, considering most of the other Stryker variants only have a remote-controlled .50 cal and grenade launchers, which isn't nothing but it falls short of the offensive capabilities Ukraine has been asking for. It would be unlikely the one with the 30mm autocannon would be sent, given that it is new and not widely fielded yet.

Not really. When considered with the other up-gunned vehicles/IFVs recently pledged, it's a step up - but as you've observed, this is a vehicle being retired (and one for which the resale prospects are not great). It may end up being part of a big commitment, but the impact it has on the battlefield depends entirely on the numbers sent - if the numbers are in line with, say, previous donations of APCs, I wouldn't call it going all-in even in its fairly narrow domain. The poorly planned, patchwork nature of the aid probably hampers its overall value a bit.

I'd call the delivery of Strykers part of the watershed moment for donations of heavily armed fighting vehicles - not necessarily the moment in which they'll be sent in large numbers, but the moment in which "Western-made" ones are first sent at all. This could lead towards a turning point, but it is not one in itself. These kinds of vehicles are not the prime investments of Ukraine's allies (that would be airpower) nor, in all likelihood, the areas where Ukraine is most lacking (airpower, air defence, and maybe artillery are more important than this, judging by Lee's/Kofman's analysis and UAF public requests).

[Virginiá]

Not really. When considered with the other up-gunned vehicles/IFVs recently pledged, it's a step up - but as you've observed, this is a vehicle being retired (and one for which the resale prospects are not great, given the lack of international customers). It may end up being part of a big commitment, but the impact it has on the battlefield depends entirely on the numbers sent - if the numbers are in line with, say, previous donations of APCs, I wouldn't call it going all-in even in its fairly narrow domain. The poorly planned, patchwork nature of the aid probably hampers its overall value a bit.

I'd call the delivery of Strykers part of the watershed moment for donations of heavily armed fighting vehicles - not necessarily the moment in which they'll be sent in large numbers, but the moment in which "Western-made" ones are first sent at all. This could lead towards a turning point, but it is not one in itself. These kinds of vehicles are not the prime investments of Ukraine's allies (that would be airpower) nor, in all likelihood, the areas where Ukraine is most lacking (airpower/air defence).

I think you're reading into my comment a bit too much lol

Not all in like, oh, we're sending 1,000 Bradleys and thinking about as many tanks. But they are slowly sending some of just about all the major armored systems we use, which opens the door for more as people are trained in their use. This is a big change from months ago.

[CanadianDemocrat]

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1612434145493360640

One source suggested Britain might offer around 10 Challenger 2 tanks, enough to equip a squadron.

The source said this in itself would not be a "game changer" but it would still be hugely significant because the move would breach a barrier that has so far prevented allies from offering up Western tanks to Ukraine for fear of being seen as overly escalatory by Russia.

"I have delivered 10, now you should deliver 100," is galaxy-brained logic which could only work because of how arbitrary some of the escalatory lines were in the first place. The UK government could probably deliver more practical aid for the same price by sending something scalable or easier to maintain than a batch of 10 tanks which will never be added to. If they're desperate to get some good PR by being first to deliver in a category, they could always pay for something like the 150km GLSDB instead (which would probably be more useful for Ukraine than these tanks).

The UK is retiring their Warrior IFVs, as their upgrades were deemed too expensive. They should be sent to Ukraine along with the Challenger 2 tanks. 

[Storr]

5 months of battle for this city might come to an end soon. This leaves Bakhmut's northern flank exposed. (Krasna Hora, Paraskoviivka)

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1612578450962882561
https://twitter.com/warmonitor3/status/1612581503388553216?

Looking at the town's wikipedia page, I found out Soledar translates to English as "gift of salt".
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1612572448070995968?s=20&t=dbE5sz...

[NOVA Green]

Possible new wave of mobilization in Russia. Another 500K on top of the 300K from last quarter, who are now almost done with training.

Could be looking at a million man army.

KYIV — Ukrainian intelligence officials are warning that the Kremlin plans a new mobilization wave for up to 500,000 men to fight in Ukraine starting in mid-January.

The new conscription drive, which would be larger than last autumn’s Russian draft of 300,000, would include a push in big cities, including some strategic industrial centers in Russia, Andriy Cherniak, an official with the Main Military Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, told POLITICO on Saturday.

Moscow plans to use the 500,000 extra conscripts in a possible new massive offensive against Ukraine, the Guardian reported, citing Vadym Skibitsky, deputy chief of Ukrainian military intelligence.

Ukrainian Armed Forces Chief Commander Valery Zaluzhnyy, in a December interview with the Economist, said Russia will conduct a new attempt at a massive offensive against Ukraine in February-March 2023. It might not start in Donbas, but in the direction of Kyiv through Belarus.

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-mobilize-new-conscript-military-intelligence-war-ukraine/

Reminds me a bit of the Jack White "Seven Nation Army" from back in the dayz...

Pretty clear that regardless of whatever Russian Propaganda floating around on Social Media, that the "Russian Mobilization" does little more than create not only significantly higher Russian Military casualties, increase domestic opposition against the War within the "Motherland", and continue to accelerate what is in reality a dramatic decrease within the Russian population when it comes to key economic aspects such as output of basic manufactured goods, cost of living increases, loss of workers in key MFG sectors who are busy fighting for "Putin's" attempted annexation of Ukraine, etc..

Meanwhile internal Russian sabotage operations are increasing against the War, especially involving sabotage operations against Russian railroad tracks transporting troops closer to the frontlines...

People can hit the Russian "crackpipe" all they want, buy yeah... Russia can completely empty all of their prisons and send them to front lines in Ukraine to get slaughtered like sheep WW I style.

Russia can do forced mobilization of all Males from 18-35 to fight in Ukraine... still who is gonna work at the Defense plants and the factories and Mines of the Energy sector?

Concept of another 500k Russian "Mobiks" happily volunteering to go the frontlines of Ukraine, is pretty much a "bunk acid" trip from back in the '80s.

How many more Russian military recruitment offices will get firebombed and burned to the ground?

How many more Russian officers will get shot dead or "fragged" at the front lines?

Really--- this all sounds delusional to me, unless Putin is really jonesing for the first real Russian Revolution since 1917...

Put this in your pipe and smoke it...

[Frodo]

It is good that NATO has moved to do more than just arm the Ukrainian military to help it stave off defeat as in the early months of the invasion, though an air defense system is certainly still crucial for the sake of the civilian population.  Now that Ukraine is actually on the brink of driving out the Russians from Ukraine entirely -thus winning the war-, we should arm it accordingly with more advanced drones and tanks to accomplish that mission, and deal Russia a decisive defeat from which it will take decades to recover, and drive Putin to an early death from sheer despair.  Only then with victory in our grasp can we begin to contemplate negotiations.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Now that Ukraine is actually on the brink of winning the war,

This is a very dangerous assumption to make. If you take Ukraine's war aims as the complete liberation of national territory, that's unfortunately still very far off, even with this new round of aid. Of course, the hope is that Russia folds before we get to that point, but given past behavior I'm not comfortable betting on it.

The sad truth is that we're probably looking for at least another year of mostly-attritional warfare, albeit one marked by occasional Ukrainian gains like those we've seen around Kharkiv and in Kherson. The goal remains holding on, and being in this for the long haul will make the difference.

[Frodo]

Now that Ukraine is actually on the brink of winning the war,

This is a very dangerous assumption to make. If you take Ukraine's war aims as the complete liberation of national territory, that's unfortunately still very far off, even with this new round of aid. Of course, the hope is that Russia folds before we get to that point, but given past behavior I'm not comfortable betting on it.

The sad truth is that we're probably looking for at least another year of mostly-attritional warfare, albeit one marked by occasional Ukrainian gains like those we've seen around Kharkiv and in Kherson. The goal remains holding on, and being in this for the long haul will make the difference.

Not if we give Ukraine the weapons with which to overcome that Western Front-style stalemate, which we are beginning to do.  We can end this war this year militarily if we really want to.    I think the fatigue setting in back home should in fact drive us to take off the gloves, and give Ukraine ever more advanced (offensive) weaponry to end this war sooner rather than later, and with complete victory on the horizon.